Trade Talk (Part 17): Early Offseason Planning

[Norseman79]

Again, figure out what you want and understand what it's going to cost. Sexton won't cost us much - Donte hasn't done squat here. Interesting thing is looking at the assists and 3pt shooting that Sexton has shown so far this preseason. Those of you jumping to its only preseason - what has Rob or DD shown?

[KGdaBom]

Again, figure out what you want and understand what it's going to cost. Sexton won't cost us much - Donte hasn't done squat here. Interesting thing is looking at the assists and 3pt shooting that Sexton has shown so far this preseason. Those of you jumping to its only preseason - what has Rob or DD shown?

Sexton has good offensive numbers. He's supposed to be bad defensively. I only paid attention to him for fantasy basketball purposes. If he's good why would Charlotte give him up for lesser compensation? DDV has been a very good 6th man type. Great 3 point shooting on good volume and from all reports a sold defender. I don't think I'd give him up for Sexton.

[BlacJacMac]

Jaden's 3-ball is inconsistent, but he's a career 48% shooter overall. Finch unfortunately likes to park him behind the arc, but he's shown a lot more offensive game than Suggs. He's not super crafty, but he's arguably our best mid-range shooter.

He's also a career 52/42/83 shooter through 27 Playoff games.

And Josh Minott is a career 48% shooter while Anthony Edwards is a career 44% shooter. I guess we know who the better offensive talent is, right?!

Straw man.

McDaniels has played over 10,000 regular season minutes. That 48% is completely relevant. He's played almost 1200 Postseason minutes as well, making that 52/42/83 much more than a small sample.

Suggs has played 5500 minutes (plus 230 Playoff minutes). He's been well below average for all but 1 outlier (regular) season.

Do I even need to break down Ant vs Minott?

[Klomp]

Jaden's 3-ball is inconsistent, but he's a career 48% shooter overall. Finch unfortunately likes to park him behind the arc, but he's shown a lot more offensive game than Suggs. He's not super crafty, but he's arguably our best mid-range shooter.

He's also a career 52/42/83 shooter through 27 Playoff games.

And Josh Minott is a career 48% shooter while Anthony Edwards is a career 44% shooter. I guess we know who the better offensive talent is, right?!

Klomp I'm firmly in BlacJacMac's corner on this debate. Maybe that's evidence that we should do the trade.

That's fine. I'm not against making or not making any trade. I'm just not a person who uses my personal biases to frame my entire belief of how the team should be run. I understand the reasons for not pursuing Suggs, but I'm also not going to eliminate the possibility from happening in my mind because of it. Go back years, and I was one of the only players keeping an eye on the plausibility of a Wolves-Knicks trade (through many iterations). I understand why many didn't like the concept, but I also firmly believed that they weren't seeing things I was seeing about the Knicks pursuit and how a possible trade construct could look if the pursuit continued.

[Klomp]

Jaden's 3-ball is inconsistent, but he's a career 48% shooter overall. Finch unfortunately likes to park him behind the arc, but he's shown a lot more offensive game than Suggs. He's not super crafty, but he's arguably our best mid-range shooter.

He's also a career 52/42/83 shooter through 27 Playoff games.

And Josh Minott is a career 48% shooter while Anthony Edwards is a career 44% shooter. I guess we know who the better offensive talent is, right?!

Straw man.

McDaniels has played over 10,000 regular season minutes. That 48% is completely relevant. He's played almost 1200 Postseason minutes as well, making that 52/42/83 much more than a small sample.

Suggs has played 5500 minutes (plus 230 Playoff minutes). He's been well below average for all but 1 outlier (regular) season.

Do I even need to break down Ant vs Minott?

So you're saying it's not a fair comparison because one has played much more minutes than the other.

The point of my comparison is that Minott and McDaniels play much closer to the rim than Ant and Suggs, which can partially help explain a difference in percentages. Deeper shots always bring lower percentages.

Minott has a career average depth of 9.5, while Ant is at 16.9.
McDaniels has a career average depth of 13.7, while Suggs is at 17.7

[BlacJacMac]

And Josh Minott is a career 48% shooter while Anthony Edwards is a career 44% shooter. I guess we know who the better offensive talent is, right?!

Straw man.

McDaniels has played over 10,000 regular season minutes. That 48% is completely relevant. He's played almost 1200 Postseason minutes as well, making that 52/42/83 much more than a small sample.

Suggs has played 5500 minutes (plus 230 Playoff minutes). He's been well below average for all but 1 outlier (regular) season.

Do I even need to break down Ant vs Minott?

So you're saying it's not a fair comparison because one has played much more minutes than the other.

The point of my comparison is that Minott and McDaniels play much closer to the rim than Ant and Suggs, which can partially help explain a difference in percentages. Deeper shots always bring lower percentages.

Minott has a career average depth of 9.5, while Ant is at 16.9.
McDaniels has a career average depth of 13.7, while Suggs is at 17.7

But if you're going to keep taking those deeper shots, you better make them. It just tells me that Suggs isn't a particularly smart offensive player.

Minott shouldn't figure into this at all. His career is just noise at this point. 3 of the 4 guys you are comparing are starters. Josh played, by far, the most minutes of his career last season and was our 12th man.

[Wolveswin]

Straw man.

McDaniels has played over 10,000 regular season minutes. That 48% is completely relevant. He's played almost 1200 Postseason minutes as well, making that 52/42/83 much more than a small sample.

Suggs has played 5500 minutes (plus 230 Playoff minutes). He's been well below average for all but 1 outlier (regular) season.

Do I even need to break down Ant vs Minott?

So you're saying it's not a fair comparison because one has played much more minutes than the other.

The point of my comparison is that Minott and McDaniels play much closer to the rim than Ant and Suggs, which can partially help explain a difference in percentages. Deeper shots always bring lower percentages.

Minott has a career average depth of 9.5, while Ant is at 16.9.
McDaniels has a career average depth of 13.7, while Suggs is at 17.7

But if you're going to keep taking those deeper shots, you better make them. It just tells me that Suggs isn't a particularly smart offensive player.

Minott shouldn't figure into this at all. His career is just noise at this point. 3 of the 4 guys you are comparing are starters. Josh played, by far, the most minutes of his career last season and was our 12th man.

As with Suggs, or any player Wolves would trade for, trying to directly correlate what they did on old team vs Wolves (new team) isn’t exactly a good way of evaluating person in trade. Why? If you find me a PG who currently can shoot the 3PT% you find ideal and play the defense you find ideal and pass/ball handle you find ideal - congratulations - you just found a PG out of your price range.

So, what might Wolves ask of Suggs? Play D. Check. Shoot the 3. Half check. Primary ball handler part time. Check. Stay healthy. Well that is the gamble - and if he was the pillar of health - he would be yet another PG out of our price range. But if he can stay healthy, asked to not be true PG, and improve his 3% year over year - eureka - we just found our PG in our price range.

[BlacJacMac]

So you're saying it's not a fair comparison because one has played much more minutes than the other.

The point of my comparison is that Minott and McDaniels play much closer to the rim than Ant and Suggs, which can partially help explain a difference in percentages. Deeper shots always bring lower percentages.

Minott has a career average depth of 9.5, while Ant is at 16.9.
McDaniels has a career average depth of 13.7, while Suggs is at 17.7

But if you're going to keep taking those deeper shots, you better make them. It just tells me that Suggs isn't a particularly smart offensive player.

Minott shouldn't figure into this at all. His career is just noise at this point. 3 of the 4 guys you are comparing are starters. Josh played, by far, the most minutes of his career last season and was our 12th man.

As with Suggs, or any player Wolves would trade for, trying to directly correlate what they did on old team vs Wolves (new team) isn’t exactly a good way of evaluating person in trade. Why? If you find me a PG who currently can shoot the 3PT% you find ideal and play the defense you find ideal and pass/ball handle you find ideal - congratulations - you just found a PG out of your price range.

So, what might Wolves ask of Suggs? Play D. Check. Shoot the 3. Half check. Primary ball handler part time. Check. Stay healthy. Well that is the gamble - and if he was the pillar of health - he would be yet another PG out of our price range. But if he can stay healthy, asked to not be true PG, and improve his 3% year over year - eureka - we just found our PG in our price range.

So all he has to do is 3 things that he's been unable to do in 3 of his 4 years.

That's not a 150M gamble I'd take.

Rule #1 should be "Don't fall in love with an outlier".

I get that we're not trading for a perfect (or near perfect player), but Suggs strikes me as trading to make a trade - and with a much better chance of losing the deal.

I'd LIKE to make a trade, but we don't HAVE to make one.

[Wolveswin]

But if you're going to keep taking those deeper shots, you better make them. It just tells me that Suggs isn't a particularly smart offensive player.

Minott shouldn't figure into this at all. His career is just noise at this point. 3 of the 4 guys you are comparing are starters. Josh played, by far, the most minutes of his career last season and was our 12th man.

As with Suggs, or any player Wolves would trade for, trying to directly correlate what they did on old team vs Wolves (new team) isn’t exactly a good way of evaluating person in trade. Why? If you find me a PG who currently can shoot the 3PT% you find ideal and play the defense you find ideal and pass/ball handle you find ideal - congratulations - you just found a PG out of your price range.

So, what might Wolves ask of Suggs? Play D. Check. Shoot the 3. Half check. Primary ball handler part time. Check. Stay healthy. Well that is the gamble - and if he was the pillar of health - he would be yet another PG out of our price range. But if he can stay healthy, asked to not be true PG, and improve his 3% year over year - eureka - we just found our PG in our price range.

So all he has to do is 3 things that he's been unable to do in 3 of his 4 years.

That's not a 150M gamble I'd take.

Rule #1 should be "Don't fall in love with an outlier".

I get that we're not trading for a perfect (or near perfect player), but Suggs strikes me as trading to make a trade - and with a much better chance of losing the deal.

I'd LIKE to make a trade, but we don't HAVE to make one.

See that is where you are wrong - or differ. Suggs is in Wolves price point. So I see this team as much better:
Gobert
Reid
McDaniels
Edwards
Suggs

Vs.

Gobert
Randle
McDaniels
Edwards
Conley

The sum is greater than the parts. More so if Suggs can become - in his new setting - the buy low but do better in my environment type of player I hope he is in trade (and any player I may trade for to better the sum - not just Suggs).

[BlacJacMac]

As with Suggs, or any player Wolves would trade for, trying to directly correlate what they did on old team vs Wolves (new team) isn’t exactly a good way of evaluating person in trade. Why? If you find me a PG who currently can shoot the 3PT% you find ideal and play the defense you find ideal and pass/ball handle you find ideal - congratulations - you just found a PG out of your price range.

So, what might Wolves ask of Suggs? Play D. Check. Shoot the 3. Half check. Primary ball handler part time. Check. Stay healthy. Well that is the gamble - and if he was the pillar of health - he would be yet another PG out of our price range. But if he can stay healthy, asked to not be true PG, and improve his 3% year over year - eureka - we just found our PG in our price range.

So all he has to do is 3 things that he's been unable to do in 3 of his 4 years.

That's not a 150M gamble I'd take.

Rule #1 should be "Don't fall in love with an outlier".

I get that we're not trading for a perfect (or near perfect player), but Suggs strikes me as trading to make a trade - and with a much better chance of losing the deal.

I'd LIKE to make a trade, but we don't HAVE to make one.

See that is where you are wrong - or differ. Suggs is in Wolves price point. So I see this team as much better:
Gobert
Reid
McDaniels
Edwards
Suggs

Vs.

Gobert
Randle
McDaniels
Edwards
Conley

The sum is greater than the parts. More so if Suggs can become - in his new setting - the buy low but do better in my environment type of player I hope he is in trade (and any player I may trade for to better the sum - not just Suggs).

I'm not even a big Randle fan, but I'll take him all day over Suggs.

If we trade Randle for Suggs, Beringer is our Day 1 Third Big. We also get a lot smaller defensively.

And I don't think "guard defense" was our missing piece the last 2 years. It was lack of another offensive creator/facilitator and too many turnovers. Suggs doesn't help either of those problems.

[Wolveswin]

So all he has to do is 3 things that he's been unable to do in 3 of his 4 years.

That's not a 150M gamble I'd take.

Rule #1 should be "Don't fall in love with an outlier".

I get that we're not trading for a perfect (or near perfect player), but Suggs strikes me as trading to make a trade - and with a much better chance of losing the deal.

I'd LIKE to make a trade, but we don't HAVE to make one.

See that is where you are wrong - or differ. Suggs is in Wolves price point. So I see this team as much better:
Gobert
Reid
McDaniels
Edwards
Suggs

Vs.

Gobert
Randle
McDaniels
Edwards
Conley

The sum is greater than the parts. More so if Suggs can become - in his new setting - the buy low but do better in my environment type of player I hope he is in trade (and any player I may trade for to better the sum - not just Suggs).

I'm not even a big Randle fan, but I'll take him all day over Suggs.

If we trade Randle for Suggs, Beringer is our Day 1 Third Big. We also get a lot smaller defensively.

And I don't think "guard defense" was our missing piece the last 2 years. It was lack of another offensive creator/facilitator and too many turnovers. Suggs doesn't help either of those problems.

lol I say the sum is greater than the parts. You say: let’s break down the parts some more.

This is pointless discussion. Every player in Wolves price point will have holes. Defects. Warts.

Name me your trade target. And if said target is truly in Wolves price point - we could spend pages poking holes in that guy too.

Pointless.

[winforlose]

See that is where you are wrong - or differ. Suggs is in Wolves price point. So I see this team as much better:
Gobert
Reid
McDaniels
Edwards
Suggs

Vs.

Gobert
Randle
McDaniels
Edwards
Conley

The sum is greater than the parts. More so if Suggs can become - in his new setting - the buy low but do better in my environment type of player I hope he is in trade (and any player I may trade for to better the sum - not just Suggs).

I'm not even a big Randle fan, but I'll take him all day over Suggs.

If we trade Randle for Suggs, Beringer is our Day 1 Third Big. We also get a lot smaller defensively.

And I don't think "guard defense" was our missing piece the last 2 years. It was lack of another offensive creator/facilitator and too many turnovers. Suggs doesn't help either of those problems.

lol I say the sum is greater than the parts. You say: let’s break down the parts some more.

This is pointless discussion. Every player in Wolves price point will have holes. Defects. Warts.

Name me your trade target. And if said target is truly in Wolves price point - we could spend pages poking holes in that guy too.

Pointless.

Randle vs Suggs is the question. As for the warts, I agree, but the warts we can afford are not in playmaking. Why trade for anyone who is deficient in our area of greatest need. Finally, I hate small ball. Any trade to get smaller without backfilling some of what we are losing is a bad idea. We are worse without a backup PF and no money to get one.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Wouldn't trade any of our 7 starters ( i include DDV) for many reasons :

- ANT : Obvious, no need to tell more.
- Randle : Perfect number 2, can score, pass, improve on defense and enjoy to play here. I expect a big season from Julius ( 23-25 PPG)
- Rudy : Getting older but obviously still a top 5 defender in the NBA. We need defense to win a championship.
- Jaden : a top 5 defensive guy already and on the way to improve his offense to become consistent at 15 PPG.
- Mike The general, if he stay healthy, we will need his playmaking and his 45% 3 PT shooting at clutch time.
- Naz : Perfect complement, can replace Julius, Rudy. Need a bit of defense improvement but he is so important already.
- DDV: Our sniper, we need more offensive threat and he is the one to allow ANT and Julius to slow down. If he can shoot consistently 40% at 3, it will be a huge plus.

Behind we have a super bench : TSJ, Rob, Clark, Joan, Juzang....

So yes, won't change anything. We are ready to make a run and fight for the title. Go Wolves !

[Norseman79]

Again, figure out what you want and understand what it's going to cost. Sexton won't cost us much - Donte hasn't done squat here. Interesting thing is looking at the assists and 3pt shooting that Sexton has shown so far this preseason. Those of you jumping to its only preseason - what has Rob or DD shown?

Sexton has good offensive numbers. He's supposed to be bad defensively. I only paid attention to him for fantasy basketball purposes. If he's good why would Charlotte give him up for lesser compensation? DDV has been a very good 6th man type. Great 3 point shooting on good volume and from all reports a sold defender. I don't think I'd give him up for Sexton.

My point is I would give up Dante which gives them a shooter next to ball, Rob which gives them a young point guard to develop, and Miller who is a young big. In exchange for Sexton, who they likely aren't going to resign and is a bit redundant on their roster. As well as a first, which they have three of in 2027. I will agree with whoever else stated that I would only do a trade like this if Sexton was signed on a reasonable extension aka approximately 20 mil a year. What I struggle with, is I don't know who people think they're going to find that is going to be good on offense and on defense without having draft picks to trade. Randle isn't good enough to get that type of point guard back unless it's somebody with major concerns.

People mentioning Suggs, why? What do we have that Orlando would actually want? Look at their roster, look at their positions of need and tell me that we can fill them. Not to mention, what does Suggs do that puts him over someone like Sexton? Again, look at the game as a whole not just offensive or defensive ball.

[winforlose]

Again, figure out what you want and understand what it's going to cost. Sexton won't cost us much - Donte hasn't done squat here. Interesting thing is looking at the assists and 3pt shooting that Sexton has shown so far this preseason. Those of you jumping to its only preseason - what has Rob or DD shown?

Sexton has good offensive numbers. He's supposed to be bad defensively. I only paid attention to him for fantasy basketball purposes. If he's good why would Charlotte give him up for lesser compensation? DDV has been a very good 6th man type. Great 3 point shooting on good volume and from all reports a sold defender. I don't think I'd give him up for Sexton.

My point is I would give up Dante which gives them a shooter next to ball, Rob which gives them a young point guard to develop, and Miller who is a young big. In exchange for Sexton, who they likely aren't going to resign and is a bit redundant on their roster. As well as a first, which they have three of in 2027. I will agree with whoever else stated that I would only do a trade like this if Sexton was signed on a reasonable extension aka approximately 20 mil a year. What I struggle with, is I don't know who people think they're going to find that is going to be good on offense and on defense without having draft picks to trade. Randle isn't good enough to get that type of point guard back unless it's somebody with major concerns.

People mentioning Suggs, why? What do we have that Orlando would actually want? Look at their roster, look at their positions of need and tell me that we can fill them. Not to mention, what does Suggs do that puts him over someone like Sexton? Again, look at the game as a whole not just offensive or defensive ball.

Donte is willing to move the ball. I have no issue moving him, but we need someone who is also a willing passer. If they could defend at a decent level that would also be good. Donte is more than a sniper, he is a legit 3 and D. The issue is not with moving him, it is with downgrading from him.

[Klomp]

I'm not even a big Randle fan, but I'll take him all day over Suggs.

If we trade Randle for Suggs, Beringer is our Day 1 Third Big. We also get a lot smaller defensively.

Yes, in reality, we get smaller. That means it's not Joan who becomes the "third big", but actually Jaden. This opens up wing minutes for the Clark/Shannon/Dillingham group as well.

[Klomp]

People mentioning Suggs, why? What do we have that Orlando would actually want?

Three-team (or more) trades are legal under the CBA. Just because we are getting someone from Orlando doesn't mean our trade pieces would be going to Orlando.

[younggunsmn]

Orlando is not putting Julius Randle and Paolo Banchero on the same team, cmon now.
And even with all his warts Randle is way more valuable than Suggs, he's in a higher tier of player.

Personally I would not touch Suggs right now because of the combination of these 3 things:
1. Contract
2. Injury history
3. Well below average 3 point shooting in 3 of his 4 years.

But say we wanted to.
The only salary match that really works is Conley+McDaniels for Suggs.
35.1 outgiong vs 35.0 incoming for us.

What is interesting this offseason is that there seems to be a 25 million AAV invisible ceiling on young role players.
Giddey, Kuminga, Sharpe, Camara, Braun all recently at that level or lower.

That make Suggs at 31+ AAV quite overpaid for his production so far (McDaniels slightly as well).

I will say this. If we are disappointing at the trade deadline and McDaniels is still averaging 12 PPG or less he is going to be one of the first guys we explore moving. Especially if TJ Shannon makes the big jump we all hope he does.

I don't like Suggs fit offensively with McDaniels and Gobert and especially as a lead guard opposite Ant who struggles to create his own shot.
But Suggs for Conley/McDaniels could be something we considered to rebalance the roster later on if things go sour, with Orlando maybe throwing in some draft capital. We're not a that point yet however. They are still trying to give Rob a shot to be their guy for the future.

Then you start Donte on the wing opposite Ant and hope he and TJ will hold down the fort defensively.

Suggs/Rob/vet PG
Ant/TJ
DDV/Clark
Randle/Naz
Gobert/Beringer

Injuries and contracts aside, it comes down to how you like Suggs vs McDaniels.
Jaden's ceiling is higher, but it's also year 6 for him, he is what he is.
Suggs is still only 24 years old. But he's not a dynamic athlete, even pre-injury, and the A/TO does leave a LOT to be desired from your PG.

[shrink]

I wouldn’t be quick to trade Randle as the rest of the league keeps getting better.

One positive thing about Suggs is that he would be comfortable in Minnesota. We need to factor in each player’s desire to be here when we set their value, not just for team unity but also that we don’t lose a valuable player for nothing because he wants out.

However, I would mention that Randle also seems to be happy in Minnesota and with Finch, so that is a plus for him too.

[winforlose]

I wouldn’t be quick to trade Randle as the rest of the league keeps getting better.

One positive thing about Suggs is that he would be comfortable in Minnesota. We need to factor in each player’s desire to be here when we set their value, not just for team unity but also that we don’t lose a valuable player for nothing because he wants out.

However, I would mention that Randle also seems to be happy in Minnesota and with Finch, so that is a plus for him too.

Moving Randle likely will happen as Ant gets closer to his prime. But Randle is our best trade bait now that he is on a reasonable contract for 3 years and coming off a good playoff run. It’s not like we can have our cake and eat it too. If we trade Randle it needs to be for the PGOF during the prime Ant years. Ant’s weakest areas are playmaking and decision making late game. Getting someone who cannot play make or who will not pass late game is how you squander Ant’s prime and end the competitive era of Wolves basketball. You need someone who is both a capable and willing passer. Included in that is the ability to create enough offensive gravity to then pass out to the open player. If we lack that we might as well keep Randle. Suggs being defensively sound is great, but his being offensively challenged and frequently injured is not. Suggs for Randle is not buying low, it is going all in a 2 and 7 off suit.