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Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1741 » by winforlose » Fri Feb 14, 2025 4:48 pm

shrink wrote:
winforlose wrote:I agree with some of this, but I cannot bring myself to and 1 it. Naz is not a C. Putting him at C is wasting him the same way putting Jaden at PF is wasting him. Playing big ball is the way to win. We need a Myles Turner like C who can pace and space while also rim protecting. I am also cool with Unicorn lineups a few minutes a game (but only when appropriate,) with Jaden at the 2, Naz at the 3, and our starting and backup Cs assuming pace and space at both positions. Ant and Rudy is the wrong fit. That said, I don’t love small ball, and I especially don’t love it if we don’t box out consistently (which we do not.)

I agree with most of this too, except that Ant and Rudy are the wrong fit.

What? Rudy clogs the paint to keep Ant from driving, right? Nah. Ant simply isn’t using Rudy to his advantage.

National sources say Rudy sets the best picks in the NBA. Not only is he a very large human being, but his positioning and footwork to get to spot are prefect. He knows exactly how close he can get to setting a moving screen without it being illegal. With Ant’s explosive first step, the two can shed any defender, and that is magnified because of Ant’s newfound ability to shoot the three.

The problem though is that Ant STILL hasn’t learned to throw the lob. When Rudy comes off his screen and rolls to the basket, he is open almost every time. Part of this is because if Ant won’t throw the lob, defenders rush to stop him, and ignore Rudy. Gobert has his hands up, he’s looking for the ball. He just never gets it from Ant. If Ant will just sit down with Mike Conley, and be half as good as he is (which should be easy with so much better physical gifts), then that could be a terrific offensive combination.

The other important thing about Gobert is, of course, his defense. His whole career, he has been a walking top ten defense, regardless of how bad his teammates are. But in MIN, he has even better teammates, but it all comes down to Gobert. Naz has always been a poor defender, but put him on the floor with Rudy behind him, and his numbers soar. Players like Jaylin Clark or Ant can get into opponents and go for steals, knowing that if they miss and get beat, there is a good chance Rudy will erase them at the rim. I think trading Gobert now would hurt the chemistry the team has built with him, and while Miles Turner has been a good defender in the past, the team would take a dramatic hit defensively (and our identity) if the Wolves turned Gobert into Turner.


I could give you a long answer about how hard it is to get Rudy the ball in a position to score. I could talk about how Rudy in the dunker makes it harder for guys like Jaden to get out of the corner, which makes it easier to cheat off Jaden and help on Ant. I could talk about the pace Rudy plays at, and how Ant wants to go faster to take advantage of the broken floor defense instead of the set defense. I could talk about Rudy’s back issues and how it leads him to have poor rebounding games and how those poor rebounding games lead to broken floor situations the other way or open 3s on 2nd chance shots. All of that we have seen this year, but my biggest concern with Rudy and Ant long term is that Rudy’s hands are getting worse. He misses a lot of passes already, and as you said Ant is already bad at getting Rudy the ball (especially in the lob.) When Rudy does not complete the catch or does but cannot go up with it immediately, bad things happen more often than not. As Rudy ages, I have doubts that his performance offensively will keep pace with what we have already seen. Moreover, on bad Rudy nights we struggle to compete no matter who the opponent is.

I think a change is coming and would try to focus that change on a rim protector like Turner who can add some pace and space. That said, Rudy’s money is still valuable at the moment because he is still a walking top 10 defense, and I am not sure how much longer that will be true.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 1[emoji239[emoji2392]]): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1742 » by minimus » Fri Feb 14, 2025 4:58 pm

winforlose wrote:I think a change is coming and would try to focus that change on a rim protector like Turner who can add some pace and space. That said, Rudy’s money is still valuable at the moment because he is still a walking top 10 defense, and I am not sure how much longer that will be true.


Well, it is exactly how I feel. While I agree that on paper Myles Turner fits MIN better than Gobert, I don't believe that he is nowhere close to Rudy in terms of competitiveness. My hope that Rudy decline will be graceful and TC (or whoever will be in FO), will have time to find a backup big who can grow organically next Gobert, Reid, McDaniels and Edwards.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 1[emoji239[emoji2392]]): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1743 » by winforlose » Fri Feb 14, 2025 5:02 pm

minimus wrote:
winforlose wrote:I think a change is coming and would try to focus that change on a rim protector like Turner who can add some pace and space. That said, Rudy’s money is still valuable at the moment because he is still a walking top 10 defense, and I am not sure how much longer that will be true.


Well, it is exactly how I feel. While I agree that on paper Myles Turner fits MIN better than Gobert, I don't believe that he is nowhere close to Rudy in terms of competitiveness. My hope that Rudy decline will be graceful and TC (or whoever will be in FO), will have time to find a backup big who can grow organically next Gobert, Reid, McDaniels and Edwards.


Are we talking draft or current player? Also if Rudy’s decline is not graceful then the clock is ticking as the older and worse he gets the lower value his contract has in trade. That is also before the back issues are considered. They crippled Rudy in 22/23. They were not an issue in 23/24, and they seem to be going on behind the scenes in 24/25.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1744 » by Klomp » Fri Feb 14, 2025 6:35 pm

winforlose wrote:Going small ball in today’s NBA after we helped prove big ball is better is quite fitting for a franchise with our level and history of dysfunction.

We didn't "prove big ball was better".
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1745 » by winforlose » Fri Feb 14, 2025 6:40 pm

Klomp wrote:
winforlose wrote:Going small ball in today’s NBA after we helped prove big ball is better is quite fitting for a franchise with our level and history of dysfunction.

We didn't "prove big ball was better".


Yeah, because Karl and Rudy playing together was so awful last year. Especially with Jaden at the SF. Plus we never ran out a lineup with Jaden at SG and Naz at SF with KAT and Rudy. Those 56 wins were a dream. Just like beating DENVER in 7. Cleveland is showing it this year, it was us last year, and OKC even followed our model.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1746 » by Klomp » Fri Feb 14, 2025 6:43 pm

winforlose wrote:
Klomp wrote:
winforlose wrote:Going small ball in today’s NBA after we helped prove big ball is better is quite fitting for a franchise with our level and history of dysfunction.

We didn't "prove big ball was better".


Yeah, because Karl and Rudy playing together was so awful last year. Especially with Jaden at the SF. Plus we never ran out a lineup with Jaden at SG and Naz at SF with KAT and Rudy. Those 56 wins were a dream. Just like beating DENVER in 7. Cleveland is showing it this year, it was us last year, and OKC even followed our model.

I didn't say it was awful. I said we didn't prove it was better. Did we win a title? Did we even get to a Finals?

It helped us have one of our best seasons ever, but that doesn't make it "better" or the only way to win across the NBA landscape.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1747 » by BlacJacMac » Fri Feb 14, 2025 6:55 pm

winforlose wrote:
Klomp wrote:
winforlose wrote:Going small ball in today’s NBA after we helped prove big ball is better is quite fitting for a franchise with our level and history of dysfunction.

We didn't "prove big ball was better".


Yeah, because Karl and Rudy playing together was so awful last year. Especially with Jaden at the SF. Plus we never ran out a lineup with Jaden at SG and Naz at SF with KAT and Rudy. Those 56 wins were a dream. Just like beating DENVER in 7. Cleveland is showing it this year, it was us last year, and OKC even followed our model.


No one said it didn’t work. It’s not a binary option where if something is good - even very good, nothing else can be better.

Naz was a monster scoring and on the glass at center last night against a 2 big lineup. And Jaden was great at PF.

So did that prove that going smaller is better?

And heavy sarcasm has never turned a straw man into a factual statement…
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1748 » by winforlose » Fri Feb 14, 2025 7:13 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:
winforlose wrote:
Klomp wrote:We didn't "prove big ball was better".


Yeah, because Karl and Rudy playing together was so awful last year. Especially with Jaden at the SF. Plus we never ran out a lineup with Jaden at SG and Naz at SF with KAT and Rudy. Those 56 wins were a dream. Just like beating DENVER in 7. Cleveland is showing it this year, it was us last year, and OKC even followed our model.


No one said it didn’t work. It’s not a binary option where if something is good - even very good, nothing else can be better.

Naz was a monster scoring and on the glass at center last night against a 2 big lineup. And Jaden was great at PF.

So did that prove that going smaller is better?

And heavy sarcasm has never turned a straw man into a factual statement…


Teams are going bigger any chance they get. Look at the trade rumors and market this year. Everyone was trying to get Cs. OKC went out and got IHart to compete with the size of the Wolves, Mavs, Nuggets, ect… AD and Bron wanted another big to play twin towers with AD at the 4. GSW was trying to get Vuc, Kessler was a hot commodity, ect…. You don’t want sarcasm so i will give you the fact that big ball is a safety blanket compared to small ball. We beat OKC by limiting turnovers, out rebounding the bigs, getting favorable misses (OKC shooting 7 for 29 from deep is not common, and they missed a lot of open 3s,) and we were allowed to play very physically on D. We got more free throw attempts than OKC. The best team in the East and West run double bigs (though injuries derailed OKC for a lot of it.) This is the trend, and you can deny that KAT and Rudy were a great pairing or proved it can be done, but both happen to be true.

Forgot to mention Zach Eddy and JJJ, KP is huge for Boston when healthy, the resurgence of Ayton helped Portland go on an improbable run and compete for the 10 seed. The failure of Nurk has a lot to do with the failure of the Suns this year. It’s not just the two big model, big man play is getting more and more important to success in the NBA, even with the era of 3 point shooting.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1749 » by ILC » Sun Feb 16, 2025 10:51 am

Read on Twitter



Jon has been hinting at this more than I would say a reporter usually would do. Usually they're more subdued, more cautious, but since the first report came out he's been talking about this multiple times and even went on KOC's podcast and said something like "if KD has a list and the only team on that list is Minnesota..."
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1750 » by Domejandro » Sun Feb 16, 2025 4:46 pm

Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Mike Conley, and filler (Rob Dillingham?) works contractually, as long as Minnesota then stays under the Second Apron.

Realistically, I think Jaden McDaniels would have to be involved asset wise.

That said, here are Minnesota’s pick assets…

2025 FRP (Detroit, 1-13 Protected)
2025 SRP (Utah)
2026 FRP Swap (worse between MIN/UTA)
2026 SRP (worst between IND/MIA/SAS)
2028 FRP Swap (Minnesota)
2029 FRP (Minnesota, 6-30 Protected)
2029 SRP (Minnesota)
2030 FRP Swap (Second worst between MIN/DAL/SAS)*
2030 SRP (Memphis, Protected 31-50)
2031 SRP (Better of MIN/GSW)
2032 FRP Swap (Minnesota)
2032 SRP (Minnesota)

*Protected first overall, which could also be swapped.


Phoenix owns the worst hodgepodge of protected swaps imaginable on all of those even years (ex: 2026 is worst of MEM/ORL/WAS and 2028 is worst of BRK/NYK/WAS with a funky PHI pick component), so maybe there is a funky trade to be had where Minnesota offers up all available swaps, whatever weird protected FRP’s that they have, their remaining SRP’s, and the listed players above?

Feels unlikely and too weak of a package, but it is technically possible.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1751 » by ILC » Sun Feb 16, 2025 4:59 pm

Not doing it if Jayden or DDV are involved.

KD demands he wants to play with Ant and Ant only, then Randle S&T, Mike, Rob, Miller, one of Clark/TSJ works financially plus every all the available picks, swaps etc.

Then you have DDV, Ant, KD, Jaden, Rudy plus Naz and Clark/TSJ off the bench. Don't know if it'd be possible to bring NAW back then
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1752 » by Domejandro » Sun Feb 16, 2025 5:06 pm

ILC wrote:Not doing it if Jayden or DDV are involved.

KD demands he wants to play with Ant and Ant only, then Randle S&T, Mike, Rob, Miller, one of Clark/TSJ works financially plus every all the available picks, swaps etc.

Then you have DDV, Ant, KD, Jaden, Rudy plus Naz and Clark/TSJ off the bench. Don't know if it'd be possible to bring NAW back then

That doesn’t work financially. Teams who accept a sign-and-trade are hard-capped under the First Apron. There is absolutely no shot that Phoenix can shed enough salary to make that happen, under a scenario where Julius Randle is being signed for like forty (or even thirty-five) million dollars. Minnesota would also be hard-capped under the Second-Apron in that scenario, which makes keeping Naz Reid extraordinarily unlikely (he could pick up his option and take an extension on a discount?).

Beyond a sign-and-trade being functionally illegal, it’s already a mediocre offer when Donte DiVincenzo IS involved.

EDIT: There is a way to combine Julius Randle (not sign-and-trade), Mike Conley, Rob Dillingham, Luka Garza, Josh Minott, and Leonard Miller to creep above Kevin Durant’s salary, but the value is brutal.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1753 » by ILC » Sun Feb 16, 2025 6:19 pm

Domejandro wrote:
ILC wrote:Not doing it if Jayden or DDV are involved.

KD demands he wants to play with Ant and Ant only, then Randle S&T, Mike, Rob, Miller, one of Clark/TSJ works financially plus every all the available picks, swaps etc.

Then you have DDV, Ant, KD, Jaden, Rudy plus Naz and Clark/TSJ off the bench. Don't know if it'd be possible to bring NAW back then

That doesn’t work financially. Teams who accept a sign-and-trade are hard-capped under the First Apron. There is absolutely no shot that Phoenix can shed enough salary to make that happen, under a scenario where Julius Randle is being signed for like forty (or even thirty-five) million dollars. Minnesota would also be hard-capped under the Second-Apron in that scenario, which makes keeping Naz Reid extraordinarily unlikely (he could pick up his option and take an extension on a discount?).

Beyond a sign-and-trade being functionally illegal, it’s already a mediocre offer when Donte DiVincenzo IS involved.

EDIT: There is a way to combine Julius Randle (not sign-and-trade), Mike Conley, Rob Dillingham, Luka Garza, Josh Minott, and Leonard Miller to creep above Kevin Durant’s salary, but the value is brutal.

Thanks for clarifying the S&T part.

Yeah, I agree it's pretty much impossible unless KD completely nukes his value by demanding just MIN (which Idk why he would do that). And even then I bet a team would take a chance and get him for a yr rental if all they have to beat is Randle, Mike and Rob.

On the MIN side - that's already 3 key rotation pieces. Jon K said they realized to make a trade now they'd have to deplete their rotation completely. In the summer if you send those 3 plus DDV plus Jaden that's again depleting your rotation. Even if DDV and Jaden stay you're at best 7 deep. A really good 7, but still only 7.

But it's also a 37 yr old KD. As good as he is, who's parting with significant assets, has a team ready to contend when they get him and also wants to give him an extension going into his 40s almost?
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1754 » by cmoss84 » Sun Feb 16, 2025 6:40 pm

If the Suns are interested in Rudy, there are paths where a multiple team trade could net us KD and a center for Rudy and Randle.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1755 » by Mattya » Sun Feb 16, 2025 7:14 pm

Randle(31), Conley(10.7), Dillingham(6.3), Detroit pick’s salary(4.5), is probably all we can offer without going over KD’s salary. That would still give us about 20 million before we hit the second apron without declining any options, rights or resigning any players.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1756 » by winforlose » Sun Feb 16, 2025 9:17 pm

Mattya wrote:Randle(31), Conley(10.7), Dillingham(6.3), Detroit pick’s salary(4.5), is probably all we can offer without going over KD’s salary. That would still give us about 20 million before we hit the second apron without declining any options, rights or resigning any players.


Let’s take this and run with it. Also remember that we are hard capped, meaning 2nd apron is not an option. We are also limited to tax payer MLE.

Our rotation is DDV/Ant/Jaden/KD/Rudy
We have TSJ, Minott, Miller, now need to build out the roster. You lose Naz, probably NAW, you only have 8 players so you need to sign 6. The Utah draft pick probably costs about 2 (rookie minimum on a hinkie.) Clark gets the same deal. That gives you about 16 to sign 4 players and fill in the massive holes in our roster construction and depth. Sounds like a great way to win a title.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1757 » by winforlose » Sun Feb 16, 2025 9:26 pm

cmoss84 wrote:If the Suns are interested in Rudy, there are paths where a multiple team trade could net us KD and a center for Rudy and Randle.


Let’s humor this for a second. We are instantly hard capped below the second apron because we aggregated.

The first problem is we have to have the best offer. The suns will demand all our picks and swaps (1st from Det, 2nd from Utah, other 2nds, and 2028 swap plus additional swap rights in 26 and 30.) Next the Suns probably demand TSJ (assuming we don’t part with Dilly.) Is this a deal breaker for you?

The second problem is keeping Naz. KD absorbs all of Rudy’s 35 on the books already and puts approximately 19 on the books instead of Randle. We are past the keep both NAW and Naz argument, and into the can we afford Naz conversation. I think it is almost certain we cannot. So then you have replaced two starting quality PFs with KD and downgraded the C from Rudy to whoever. We still haven’t named that C or accounted for his money. We probably lose both NAW and Naz when we do. Plus why does KD want to be here if we are not contending? Do you think KD at 37 is good with a first or second round exit?
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1758 » by cmoss84 » Sun Feb 16, 2025 10:18 pm

winforlose wrote:
cmoss84 wrote:If the Suns are interested in Rudy, there are paths where a multiple team trade could net us KD and a center for Rudy and Randle.


Let’s humor this for a second. We are instantly hard capped below the second apron because we aggregated.

The first problem is we have to have the best offer. The suns will demand all our picks and swaps (1st from Det, 2nd from Utah, other 2nds, and 2028 swap plus additional swap rights in 26 and 30.) Next the Suns probably demand TSJ (assuming we don’t part with Dilly.) Is this a deal breaker for you?

The second problem is keeping Naz. KD absorbs all of Rudy’s 35 on the books already and puts approximately 19 on the books instead of Randle. We are past the keep both NAW and Naz argument, and into the can we afford Naz conversation. I think it is almost certain we cannot. So then you have replaced two starting quality PFs with KD and downgraded the C from Rudy to whoever. We still haven’t named that C or accounted for his money. We probably lose both NAW and Naz when we do. Plus why does KD want to be here if we are not contending? Do you think KD at 37 is good with a first or second round exit?

All very fair points.let me see what I can find.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1759 » by Mattya » Mon Feb 17, 2025 12:33 am

winforlose wrote:
Mattya wrote:Randle(31), Conley(10.7), Dillingham(6.3), Detroit pick’s salary(4.5), is probably all we can offer without going over KD’s salary. That would still give us about 20 million before we hit the second apron without declining any options, rights or resigning any players.


Let’s take this and run with it. Also remember that we are hard capped, meaning 2nd apron is not an option. We are also limited to tax payer MLE.

Our rotation is DDV/Ant/Jaden/KD/Rudy
We have TSJ, Minott, Miller, now need to build out the roster. You lose Naz, probably NAW, you only have 8 players so you need to sign 6. The Utah draft pick probably costs about 2 (rookie minimum on a hinkie.) Clark gets the same deal. That gives you about 16 to sign 4 players and fill in the massive holes in our roster construction and depth. Sounds like a great way to win a title.


Technically that’s 18 million since you’ve already cut Garza, with Naz’s and NAW cap holds still intact. Seems like a really nice cushion to fill out the roster I don’t really see the issue.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition 

Post#1760 » by winforlose » Mon Feb 17, 2025 1:49 am

Mattya wrote:
winforlose wrote:
Mattya wrote:Randle(31), Conley(10.7), Dillingham(6.3), Detroit pick’s salary(4.5), is probably all we can offer without going over KD’s salary. That would still give us about 20 million before we hit the second apron without declining any options, rights or resigning any players.


Let’s take this and run with it. Also remember that we are hard capped, meaning 2nd apron is not an option. We are also limited to tax payer MLE.

Our rotation is DDV/Ant/Jaden/KD/Rudy
We have TSJ, Minott, Miller, now need to build out the roster. You lose Naz, probably NAW, you only have 8 players so you need to sign 6. The Utah draft pick probably costs about 2 (rookie minimum on a hinkie.) Clark gets the same deal. That gives you about 16 to sign 4 players and fill in the massive holes in our roster construction and depth. Sounds like a great way to win a title.


Technically that’s 18 million since you’ve already cut Garza, with Naz’s and NAW cap holds still intact. Seems like a really nice cushion to fill out the roster I don’t really see the issue.


$207,825,000: Hard cap number (where the second apron begins.)

$117,399,133: Ant + Rudy + Jaden + DDV

$54,708,609: KD

$117,399,133 + $54,708,609 =$172,107,742.00

$172,107,742.00: Starters with KD

$207,825,000 - $172,107,742 =$35,717,258.00.


$35,717,258.00 How much we have left for 9 players.

$7,083,208: TSJ + Minott + Miller.

$35,717,258 - $7,083,208 =$28,634,050.00

$28,634,050.00: Wolves starters DDV/Ant/Jaden/KD/Rudy with TSJ and Miller and Minott.


@Shrink there some questions I am not sure of the answer to below this point. I would really appreciate you double checking my facts and math going forward. Thank you in advance.

So Clark was a two way player for 2 years. The first issue is whether that counts as NBA experience. This is complicated by the injury during year 1. Clark was not active for a single game in the 23/24 season. I do not know if he qualifies as 0, 1, or 2 years of experience for an NBA minimum. I am going to assume 2 because the two way rules only allow him 4 total years as a two way. Please correct me if I am wrong (very possible!!!)

$2,296,274: 2 year minimum projected for Clark.

$28,634,050.00 - $2,296,274 =$26,337,776.00

$26,337,776.00: Roster with 9 men.

$1,272,870: project 0 years of experience minimum (2nd round pick.


$26,337,776.00 - $1,272,870 =$25,064,906.00

$25,064,906.00 roster with 10 men including 2nd round pick.

One thing we have not talked about yet is ownerships willingness to pay tax. So far our roster costs

$182,760,094.00 with four/five open spots and is arguably not playoff worthy. This team bench thus far is Clark/TSJ/Minott/Miller/Utah 2nd. 2 of those guys are not allowed to see the floor (Miller and Minott,) and the 2nd is highly unlikely to play. Clark and TSJ are your only true depth at this point. Now let’s keep going.

$5,685,000: Taxpayer MLE.

$25,064,906.00 - $5,685,000 =$19,379,906.00

$19,379,906.00: room remaining to fill 3 roster spots.

Here again Shrink I am gonna ask you to check my math below.

Any vet minimum with 3 plus years of service has the same cap hit. Let’s assume 2 vet minimums

$2,378,870 X 2 =$4,757,740.00.


$19,379,906.00 - $4,757,740.00 =$14,622,166.00

$14,622,166.00: 13 man roster with 2 vet minimums, the full tax payer MLE, Utah 2nd, Clark on a minimum Hinkie, and the above mentioned starting 5 plus the returning 3 bench players.

Now let’s be super generous and assume we can get NAW back cheap. Say 10 million.

$14,622,166.00 - $10,000,000 =$4,622,166.00

$207,825,000 - $4,622,166.00 =$203,202,834.00

$203,202,834.00: Our projected salary with 14 men for next season with NAW back. This is what you are asking Ownership to pay to replace Randle/Naz/Dilly/Mike/Garza and the Pistons 1st with KD. Pardon me if I think this makes the team worse. That tax payer MLE and those 2 minimum players need to cover the backup PG, PF and C positions.

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