Trade Talk (Part 17): Early Offseason Planning

[minimus]

I can't see any way Orlando gives up Suggs and Black, not for that package, I don't think that would get Suggs straight up.

Damn, it is either a MASSIVE overpay or MASSIVE underpay...

P.S. ORL would still have Bane, DDV, Tyus Jones, Jase Richardson

[shrink]

Again half true. Naz is the natural starting PF, but playing Jaden at PF means he isn’t guarding a guard or SF. Having just lost NAW and having serious doubts about Clark’s offense this is not a good long term solution. Unless you want Leonard Miller stepping into the backup PF or have someone else in mind? Any trade involving Randle must return a competent backup PF as well as a starting PG. this is extra difficult when you factor in we cannot take back more money than we send out.

Not true. Reid can play PF and McDaniels SF. No reason why not.

Not true that one trade has to solve all problems. It can be a multiple step process.

Correct, but when Naz sits who plays PF? Also what happens if Naz or Rudy miss any length of time? You fail to address the depth question. Others have suggested Jaden play backup PF, and that is what I was talking about. Jaden is needed elsewhere, and we have no next man up.

I tend to agree. Add Suggs and DDV plays less, and I also question who comes in to be a quality big with Randle gone? How much less valuable is Jaden at PF vs SF?

Put out your 240 minutes chart, and let’s compare how many quality minutes we get from with the trade, and without the trade?

Plot out the full 240

[Wolveswin]

Not true. Reid can play PF and McDaniels SF. No reason why not.

Not true that one trade has to solve all problems. It can be a multiple step process.

Correct, but when Naz sits who plays PF? Also what happens if Naz or Rudy miss any length of time? You fail to address the depth question. Others have suggested Jaden play backup PF, and that is what I was talking about. Jaden is needed elsewhere, and we have no next man up.

I tend to agree. Add Suggs and DDV plays less, and I also question who comes in to be a quality big with Randle gone? How much less valuable is Jaden at PF vs SF?

Put out your 240 minutes chart, and let’s compare how many quality minutes we get from with the trade, and without the trade?

Plot out the full 240

That isn’t how you conduct a trade. Yes of course, if in one swoop Wolves can get Suggs and a bench PF - they do it. If not, on to the next move to fill those minutes.

Did TC get Gobert and Conley in one trade? He needed both. And I am sure other examples too.

No idea why we are discussing minutes when the trade nor the roster is complete in any scenario we are discussing. We are discussing PGs. I mean, Randle can’t even be traded for like 2 months.

Which if we are putting odds when Randle gets traded, if at all (doesn’t) is leader in club house, followed by 2026 offseason, then 2026 trade deadline.

2026 offseason, TC has 2x 1sts to trade, added to Randle value, DDV if needed, and Dilly if any remaining value (based on 25/26 season production).

[Norseman79]

I can't see any way Orlando gives up Suggs and Black, not for that package, I don't think that would get Suggs straight up.

Damn, it is either a MASSIVE overpay or MASSIVE underpay...

P.S. ORL would still have Bane, DDV, Tyus Jones, Jase Richardson

Tyus is only PG left

[Klomp]

Randle's contract is the trickiest part of any trade negotiation.

The $30 million AAV price point is trending towards becoming a bit of a no-man's land in terms of current or recent contracts. Down in the $20-25 million range you have more of the young role player types (Braun, Camara, etc) getting extensions that seem to be too light on value in a trade return. But otherwise, many of the extensions are up in the $25-45 million range or higher, where you get the guys who people will argue are "overpaid" (which may or may not be true).

Let's look at some of the "No. 2 option" contracts on playoff teams around the league. I will also include multiple players from some teams on the list, to give a fuller idea of what kinds of players are in the $25-35 million range. A few PGs have been included as well for additional context, since that is the position most often discussed as a potential target in trade talks.

Jalen Johnson, Atlanta - $30,000,000 / $30,000,000 / $30,000,000 / $30,000,000 / $30,000,000
Kristaps Porzingis, Atlanta - $30,731,707
Jaylen Brown, Boston - $53,142,264 / $57,078,728 / $61,015,192 / $64,951,656
Derrick White, Boston - $28,100,000 / $30,348,000 / $32,596,000
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte - $37,958,760 / $40,770,520 / $43,582,280 / $46,394,040
Josh Giddey, Chicago - $25,000,000 / $25,000,000 / $25,000,000 / $25,000,000
Evan Mobley, Cleveland - $46,394,100 / $50,105,628 / $53,817,156 / $57,528,684 / $61,240,212
Darius Garland, Cleveland - $39,446,090 / $42,166,510 / $44,886,930
Jamal Murray, Denver - $46,394,100 / $50,105,628 / $53,817,156 / $57,528,684
Jimmy Butler, Golden State - $54,126,450 / $56,832,773
Alperen Sengun, Houston - $33,944,954 / $35,642,202/ $37,339,450 / $39,036,697 / $39,036,697 (PO)
Pascal Siakam, Indiana - $45,550,512 / $48,924,624 / $52,298,736
Jaren Jackson Jr, Memphis - $35,000,000 / $49,000,000 / $50,500,000 / $52,000,000 / $53,500,000 (PO)
Ja Morant, Memphis - $39,446,090 / $42,166,510 / $44,886,930
Tyler Herro, Miami - $31,000,000 / $33,000,000
Andrew Wiggins, Miami - $28,223,215 / $30,169,644 (PO)
Jordan Poole, New Orleans - $31,848,215/ $34,044,642
Dejounte Murray, New Orleans - $30,801,103 / $32,785,071 / $30,751,504 (PO)
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York - $53,142,264 / $57,078,728 / $61,015,192 (PO)
OG Anunoby, New York - $39,568,966 / $42,500,000 / $45,431,034 / $48,362,068 (PO)
Mikal Bridges, New York - $24,900,000 / $33,482,145 / $36,160,714 / $38,839,285 / $41,517,856 (PO)
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City - $13,731,368 / $41,500,000 / $44,820,000 / $48,140,000 / $51,460,000 / $54,780,000
Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City - $28,500,000 / $28,500,000 (TO)
Desmond Bane, Orlando - $36,725,670 / $39,446,090 / $42,166,510 / $44,886,930
Jalen Suggs, Orlando - $35,000,000 / $32,400,000 / $29,600,000 / $26,800,000 / $26,700,000
Paul George, Philadelphia - $51,666,090 / $54,126,380 / $56,586,670 (PO)
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia - $37,958,760 / $40,770,520 / $43,582,280 / $46,394,040
Jalen Green, Phoenix - $33,584,499 / $36,251,166 / $36,000,000 (PO)
Jrue Holiday, Portland - $32,400,000 / $34,800,000 / $37,200,000 (PO)
Jerami Grant, Portland - $32,000,001 / $34,206,898 / $36,413,790
Zach LaVine, Sacramento - $47,499,660 / $48,967,380 (PO)
DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento - $24,750,000 / $25,740,000
De'Aaron Fox, San Antonio - $37,096,620 / $49,800,000 / $53,784,000 / $57,768,000 / $61,752,000
Devin Vassell, San Antonio - $27,000,000 / $27,000,000 / $24,652,174 / $27,000,000
Brandon Ingram, Toronto - $38,095,238 / $40,000,000 / $41,904,762 (PO)
Immanuel Quickley, Toronto - $32,500,000 / $32,500,000 / $32,500,000 / $32,500,000

I bolded a handful of players who I think could be part of some interesting and creative trade constructs for not only what we've been talking about but also what I believe the front office values and is looking for in possible trade packages. These would not all be 1-for-1 deals, so please ask me to explain about any of the above trade constructs if you have questions.

[KGdaBom]

Randle's contract is the trickiest part of any trade negotiation.

The $30 million AAV price point is trending towards becoming a bit of a no-man's land in terms of current or recent contracts. Down in the $20-25 million range you have more of the young role player types (Braun, Camara, etc) getting extensions that seem to be too light on value in a trade return. But otherwise, many of the extensions are up in the $25-45 million range or higher, where you get the guys who people will argue are "overpaid" (which may or may not be true).

Let's look at some of the "No. 2 option" contracts on playoff teams around the league. I will also include multiple players from some teams on the list, to give a fuller idea of what kinds of players are in the $25-35 million range. A few PGs have been included as well for additional context, since that is the position most often discussed as a potential target in trade talks.

Jalen Johnson, Atlanta - $30,000,000 / $30,000,000 / $30,000,000 / $30,000,000 / $30,000,000
Kristaps Porzingis, Atlanta - $30,731,707
Jaylen Brown, Boston - $53,142,264 / $57,078,728 / $61,015,192 / $64,951,656
Derrick White, Boston - $28,100,000 / $30,348,000 / $32,596,000
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte - $37,958,760 / $40,770,520 / $43,582,280 / $46,394,040
Josh Giddey, Chicago - $25,000,000 / $25,000,000 / $25,000,000 / $25,000,000
Evan Mobley, Cleveland - $46,394,100 / $50,105,628 / $53,817,156 / $57,528,684 / $61,240,212
Darius Garland, Cleveland - $39,446,090 / $42,166,510 / $44,886,930
Jamal Murray, Denver - $46,394,100 / $50,105,628 / $53,817,156 / $57,528,684
Jimmy Butler, Golden State - $54,126,450 / $56,832,773
Alperen Sengun, Houston - $33,944,954 / $35,642,202/ $37,339,450 / $39,036,697 / $39,036,697 (PO)
Pascal Siakam, Indiana - $45,550,512 / $48,924,624 / $52,298,736
Jaren Jackson Jr, Memphis - $35,000,000 / $49,000,000 / $50,500,000 / $52,000,000 / $53,500,000 (PO)
Ja Morant, Memphis - $39,446,090 / $42,166,510 / $44,886,930
Tyler Herro, Miami - $31,000,000 / $33,000,000
Andrew Wiggins, Miami - $28,223,215 / $30,169,644 (PO)
Jordan Poole, New Orleans - $31,848,215/ $34,044,642
Dejounte Murray, New Orleans - $30,801,103 / $32,785,071 / $30,751,504 (PO)
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York - $53,142,264 / $57,078,728 / $61,015,192 (PO)
OG Anunoby, New York - $39,568,966 / $42,500,000 / $45,431,034 / $48,362,068 (PO)
Mikal Bridges, New York - $24,900,000 / $33,482,145 / $36,160,714 / $38,839,285 / $41,517,856 (PO)
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City - $13,731,368 / $41,500,000 / $44,820,000 / $48,140,000 / $51,460,000 / $54,780,000
Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City - $28,500,000 / $28,500,000 (TO)
Desmond Bane, Orlando - $36,725,670 / $39,446,090 / $42,166,510 / $44,886,930
Jalen Suggs, Orlando - $35,000,000 / $32,400,000 / $29,600,000 / $26,800,000 / $26,700,000
Paul George, Philadelphia - $51,666,090 / $54,126,380 / $56,586,670 (PO)
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia - $37,958,760 / $40,770,520 / $43,582,280 / $46,394,040
Jalen Green, Phoenix - $33,584,499 / $36,251,166 / $36,000,000 (PO)
Jrue Holiday, Portland - $32,400,000 / $34,800,000 / $37,200,000 (PO)
Jerami Grant, Portland - $32,000,001 / $34,206,898 / $36,413,790
Zach LaVine, Sacramento - $47,499,660 / $48,967,380 (PO)
DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento - $24,750,000 / $25,740,000
De'Aaron Fox, San Antonio - $37,096,620 / $49,800,000 / $53,784,000 / $57,768,000 / $61,752,000
Devin Vassell, San Antonio - $27,000,000 / $27,000,000 / $24,652,174 / $27,000,000
Brandon Ingram, Toronto - $38,095,238 / $40,000,000 / $41,904,762 (PO)
Immanuel Quickley, Toronto - $32,500,000 / $32,500,000 / $32,500,000 / $32,500,000

I bolded a handful of players who I think could be part of some interesting and creative trade constructs for not only what we've been talking about but also what I believe the front office values and is looking for in possible trade packages. These would not all be 1-for-1 deals, so please ask me to explain about any of the above trade constructs if you have questions.

Haven't we traded enough. Let's stick with who we got for KAT. We will be very good.

[Klomp]

Haven't we traded enough. Let's stick with who we got for KAT. We will be very good.

It's certainly possible, but trades are how probably 75% of the player movement happens anymore. Free agency rarely sees big shakeups.

That list actually tells me that Randle can be a positive trade asset for someone. That contract is a bargain for a team looking for an offensive punch from a Top 2 player. We need to continue to be proactive, monitoring how we want to continue to surround Ant for the next 10 years. Randle probably only has his current contract as a Top 2 player on a contending team before transitioning to his later career. That means his trade value will lower over time. We might need to strike while the iron is hot, unless we truly believe Randle can carry us through on a title team as a top option into his next contract or we feel Ant's current surroundings will develop to that point.

[Wolveswin]

Haven't we traded enough. Let's stick with who we got for KAT. We will be very good.

I think you stumbled into the wrong thread for that kind of discussion.

[KGdaBom]

Haven't we traded enough. Let's stick with who we got for KAT. We will be very good.

It's certainly possible, but trades are how probably 75% of the player movement happens anymore. Free agency rarely sees big shakeups.

That list actually tells me that Randle can be a positive trade asset for someone. That contract is a bargain for a team looking for an offensive punch from a Top 2 player. We need to continue to be proactive, monitoring how we want to continue to surround Ant for the next 10 years. Randle probably only has his current contract as a Top 2 player on a contending team before transitioning to his later career. That means his trade value will lower over time. We might need to strike while the iron is hot, unless we truly believe Randle can carry us through on a title team as a top option into his next contract or we feel Ant's current surroundings will develop to that point.

Let's talk about Randle again. He's big, He's strong, He's got excellent post moves, He can shoot the three. He's a good facilitator and he loves being here. This is the Droid we've been looking for. No need to move along.

[KGdaBom]

Haven't we traded enough. Let's stick with who we got for KAT. We will be very good.

I think you stumbled into the wrong thread for that kind of discussion.

Part of trade talk is talking about not making trades.

[Wolveswin]

Haven't we traded enough. Let's stick with who we got for KAT. We will be very good.

I think you stumbled into the wrong thread for that kind of discussion.

Part of trade talk is talking about not making trades.

Trust me, fight club was a lot more fun to do it than not talk about it.

[winforlose]

Not true. Reid can play PF and McDaniels SF. No reason why not.

Not true that one trade has to solve all problems. It can be a multiple step process.

Correct, but when Naz sits who plays PF? Also what happens if Naz or Rudy miss any length of time? You fail to address the depth question. Others have suggested Jaden play backup PF, and that is what I was talking about. Jaden is needed elsewhere, and we have no next man up.

I tend to agree. Add Suggs and DDV plays less, and I also question who comes in to be a quality big with Randle gone? How much less valuable is Jaden at PF vs SF?

Put out your 240 minutes chart, and let’s compare how many quality minutes we get from with the trade, and without the trade?

Plot out the full 240

Jaden at PF means that we are often going up against two bigger players with only our C and Jaden to guard them. Any time Jaden is guarding a big, he is not guarding a wing or guard. We lost NAW, Clark is not well rounded enough to be reliable, and TSJ is unproven. So the answer is the defense is either mismatched or significantly weakened (or both,) when Jaden is defending the PF. Offensively it is less relevant, but then again the rebounding is an issue.

Going full 240 isn’t necessary at this point. If Naz gets hurt or Rudy gets hurt for any length of time, Jaden is our starting PF and his backup is either Leonard Miller or TSJ.

[BlacJacMac]

I wouldn’t be quick to trade Randle as the rest of the league keeps getting better.

One positive thing about Suggs is that he would be comfortable in Minnesota. We need to factor in each player’s desire to be here when we set their value, not just for team unity but also that we don’t lose a valuable player for nothing because he wants out.

However, I would mention that Randle also seems to be happy in Minnesota and with Finch, so that is a plus for him too.

Do we actually know that? Being from Minnesota and wanting to be in Minnesota are not the same thing.

I know fanbases tend to romanticize the idea that every player wants to "play at home". Some people think they would prioritize playing in front of family and friends. Other people think their home state might get a "home discount". But that's often not the case. Especially if they've been away for any length of time.

A lot of people go away for college and never move back. Or a job takes them away from home and they decide there are places they'd rather live then where they grew up.

I moved out of state when I was 30. Hired a couple friends to come out an work for me. They eventually (7+ years later) went back to raise families, but I've never had a moment where I thought about moving back.

Now if you're just talking "comfortable", that might be more likely. He knows the area, he's experienced Minnesota. But being comfortable is often not enough to supersede other factors. Hell, he might've been thrilled/relieved to get out of Minnesota when he went to Gonzaga.

Or maybe he's always dreamed about playing for the Wolves.

[shrink]

I wouldn’t be quick to trade Randle as the rest of the league keeps getting better.

One positive thing about Suggs is that he would be comfortable in Minnesota. We need to factor in each player’s desire to be here when we set their value, not just for team unity but also that we don’t lose a valuable player for nothing because he wants out.

However, I would mention that Randle also seems to be happy in Minnesota and with Finch, so that is a plus for him too.

Do we actually know that? Being from Minnesota and wanting to be in Minnesota are not the same thing.

I know fanbases tend to romanticize the idea that every player wants to "play at home". Some people think they would prioritize playing in front of family and friends. Other people think their home state might get a "home discount". But that's often not the case. Especially if they've been away for any length of time.

A lot of people go away for college and never move back. Or a job takes them away from home and they decide there are places they'd rather live then where they grew up.

I moved out of state when I was 30. Hired a couple friends to come out an work for me. They eventually (7+ years later) went back to raise families, but I've never had a moment where I thought about moving back.

Now if you're just talking "comfortable", that might be more likely. He knows the area, he's experienced Minnesota. But being comfortable is often not enough to supersede other factors. Hell, he might've been thrilled/relieved to get out of Minnesota when he went to Gonzaga.

Or maybe he's always dreamed about playing for the Wolves.

That’s a good point. What I’m saying is that the media and many players like to treat Minnesota like it’s Alaska, and February games don’t change players minds. One of the reasons that Kyle freakin’ Anderson is the best free agent to come here is that public perception of the state. You’re right, I don’t know that Suggs wants to be in Minnesota, but he at least doesn’t carry those misperceptions.

[BlacJacMac]

I wouldn’t be quick to trade Randle as the rest of the league keeps getting better.

One positive thing about Suggs is that he would be comfortable in Minnesota. We need to factor in each player’s desire to be here when we set their value, not just for team unity but also that we don’t lose a valuable player for nothing because he wants out.

However, I would mention that Randle also seems to be happy in Minnesota and with Finch, so that is a plus for him too.

Do we actually know that? Being from Minnesota and wanting to be in Minnesota are not the same thing.

I know fanbases tend to romanticize the idea that every player wants to "play at home". Some people think they would prioritize playing in front of family and friends. Other people think their home state might get a "home discount". But that's often not the case. Especially if they've been away for any length of time.

A lot of people go away for college and never move back. Or a job takes them away from home and they decide there are places they'd rather live then where they grew up.

I moved out of state when I was 30. Hired a couple friends to come out an work for me. They eventually (7+ years later) went back to raise families, but I've never had a moment where I thought about moving back.

Now if you're just talking "comfortable", that might be more likely. He knows the area, he's experienced Minnesota. But being comfortable is often not enough to supersede other factors. Hell, he might've been thrilled/relieved to get out of Minnesota when he went to Gonzaga.

Or maybe he's always dreamed about playing for the Wolves.

That’s a good point. What I’m saying is that the media and many players like to treat Minnesota like it’s Alaska, and February games don’t change players minds. One of the reasons that Kyle freakin’ Anderson is the best free agent to come here is that public perception of the state. You’re right, I don’t know that Suggs wants to be in Minnesota, but he at least doesn’t carry those misperceptions.

And we get people that come here and absolutely love it. Guys like Conley, Tolliver and Teague come to mind.

It seems like older players with families really like it here (Randle as another example). Its the younger guys looking for more nightlife and activities that tend to be less plussed about it.

[Wolveswin]

Oh boy, we moved on from talking player production and into the realm of their preferred living scenarios. I think we may have jumped the shark.

You know what makes a player fall in love with a city? Winning championships!

Trade - any trade - more so trading Randle - is to better the roster. Better the chances at a chip and pushing through the WCF ceiling.

[minimus]

ORL IN: Gobert, DDV, Whitmore
ORL OUT: Suggs, Bitadze, Black

WAS IN: Dillingham, Howard
WAS OUT: Whitmore

MIN IN: Suggs, Bitadze, Black
MIN OUT: Gobert, DDV, Dillingham

This would give us much balanced roster:

Bitadze/Reid/Beringer + Zikarsky
Randle/McDaniels/Reid + Freeman
McDaniels/TJ/Juzang
Edwards/Clark/Black
Suggs/Black/Conley/Hyland

Yeah, MIN give up a lot. But what if Suggs can slow down SGA, Murray and Luka? What if with Suggs MIN can generate more live ball turnovers and steals and run in transition? What if Suggs as PoA defender unlocks new level of McDaniels offense?

Also I think MIN might be better with Bitadze/Reid/Beringer at C.

P.S. Beringer/McDaniels/Black/Clark/Suggs unit would absolutely destroy opponents.

[BlacJacMac]

P.S. Beringer/McDaniels/Black/Clark/Suggs unit would absolutely destroy opponents.

We'd be destroying teams 12-8 for the quarter...

(Provided they didn't counter with size and beat the crap out of us)

[shrink]

Oh boy, we moved on from talking player production and into the realm of their preferred living scenarios. I think we may have jumped the shark.

Players who want to be on your team, in your city, increases their relative trade value to your team. It affects extension negotiations, team chemistry, and keeping them from leaving for nothing, and should be a factor in any trade valuation.

[Wolveswin]

Oh boy, we moved on from talking player production and into the realm of their preferred living scenarios. I think we may have jumped the shark.

Players who want to be on your team, in your city, increases their relative trade value to your team. It affects extension negotiations, team chemistry, and keeping them from leaving for nothing, and should be a factor in any trade valuation.

We get it. But when I bake a cake, I am more concerned about the quality of the flour and purity of the sugar. Concerning myself with the sprinkles on the cake before I have solved for the major ingredients does not make for a championship cake.