Kevin Durant

[BlacJacMac]

Randle's contract means we are over halfway (56%) to Kevin Durant's salary ($54,708,609). It's not as wide of a gap to make up as you might think.

If Mike Conley is ready to retire, I could see his $10,774,038 being included, and then PHX buying him out and stretching him. That would save them about $7 mil off their payroll this year, which would drastically reduce their current tax bill. If Conley wants to keep playing, I expect Tim Connelly to honor his promise, and keep him here with his family.

So Randle ($30,935,520) and Conley ($10,774,038) adds up to $41,709,558, and leaves a gap of $12,999,051.

Remember, FIRST apron restrictions include, not being able to take back more salary in a trade, and unable to acquire a player in a sign-and-trade, so PHX would need to cut a lot of salary elsewhere if we want to include Naz or NAW, as well as Randle if he doesn’t opt in. Donte $12 mil plus a prospect like Minott, Leonard Miller or Garza all have team options, and could get us over the minimum salary we’d need.

Does being over the first apron mean we can’t sign and trade players in the deal? Not that’d I’d necessarily want to include Naz/NAW.

If the two packages are Donte/Conley/Randle or Jaden/Randle are we sure trading Jaden is the wrong move? Would free up more money longterm. His defense and shooting were down this year. Is he any more than a good 5th starter that plays very good defense but can’t space the floor? Is that worth $30m/year.

Just throwing that out there. I could be swayed either way, but I could see Phoenix wanting Jaden since they have two scorers in the backcourt that are not known for defense.

I'd get rid of Finch before I'd get rid of Jaden. He was an elite defender again this year and when he's not relegated to watching Ant and Randle take turns holding the ball, has shown he can be a pretty special offensive player. I really wish Finch would lean into how terrific he is in the mid-range. It would make us so much harder to defend.

[winforlose]

Gonna start by using my old post and helping the thread with the math. People seem confused.

$207,825,000: Hard cap number (where the second apron begins.)

$117,399,133: Ant + Rudy + Jaden + DDV

$54,708,609: KD

$117,399,133 + $54,708,609 =$172,107,742.00

$172,107,742.00: Starters with KD

$207,825,000 - $172,107,742 =$35,717,258.00.


$35,717,258.00 How much we have left for 9 players.

$7,083,208: TSJ + Minott + Miller.

$35,717,258 - $7,083,208 =$28,634,050.00

$28,634,050.00: Wolves starters DDV/Ant/Jaden/KD/Rudy with TSJ and Miller and Minott.


@Shrink there some questions I am not sure of the answer to below this point. I would really appreciate you double checking my facts and math going forward. Thank you in advance.

So Clark was a two way player for 2 years. The first issue is whether that counts as NBA experience. This is complicated by the injury during year 1. Clark was not active for a single game in the 23/24 season. I do not know if he qualifies as 0, 1, or 2 years of experience for an NBA minimum. I am going to assume 2 because the two way rules only allow him 4 total years as a two way. Please correct me if I am wrong (very possible!!!)

$2,296,274: 2 year minimum projected for Clark.

$28,634,050.00 - $2,296,274 =$26,337,776.00

$26,337,776.00: Roster with 9 men.

$1,272,870: project 0 years of experience minimum (2nd round pick.


$26,337,776.00 - $1,272,870 =$25,064,906.00

$25,064,906.00 roster with 10 men including 2nd round pick.

One thing we have not talked about yet is ownerships willingness to pay tax. So far our roster costs

$182,760,094.00 with four/five open spots and is arguably not playoff worthy. This team bench thus far is Clark/TSJ/Minott/Miller/Utah 2nd. 2 of those guys are not allowed to see the floor (Miller and Minott,) and the 2nd is highly unlikely to play. Clark and TSJ are your only true depth at this point. Now let’s keep going.

$5,685,000: Taxpayer MLE.

$25,064,906.00 - $5,685,000 =$19,379,906.00

$19,379,906.00: room remaining to fill 3 roster spots.

Here again Shrink I am gonna ask you to check my math below.

Any vet minimum with 3 plus years of service has the same cap hit. Let’s assume 2 vet minimums

$2,378,870 X 2 =$4,757,740.00.


$19,379,906.00 - $4,757,740.00 =$14,622,166.00

$14,622,166.00: 13 man roster with 2 vet minimums, the full tax payer MLE, Utah 2nd, Clark on a minimum Hinkie, and the above mentioned starting 5 plus the returning 3 bench players.

Now let’s be super generous and assume we can get NAW back cheap. Say 10 million.

$14,622,166.00 - $10,000,000 =$4,622,166.00

$207,825,000 - $4,622,166.00 =$203,202,834.00

$203,202,834.00: Our projected salary with 14 men for next season with NAW back. This is what you are asking Ownership to pay to replace Randle/Naz/Dilly/Mike/Garza and the Pistons 1st with KD. Pardon me if I think this makes the team worse. That tax payer MLE and those 2 minimum players need to cover the backup PG, PF and C positions.

[winforlose]

I think the base starting point for a package is opted-in Randle and Conley. From there, it depends on what you are willing to give up. If you're willing to give up DiVincenzo or Dillingham, he could be paired with a Minott or Miller in a trade package. If not, it might require at least two from the group of Clark, Shannon, DET 1st, UTA 2nd. I think in any of these scenarios, there would be room to bring back both Reid and Alexander-Walker.

Hypothetical depth chart (trading Randle, Conley, DiVincenzo, Miller, UTA 2nd):
Alexander-Walker / Dillingham
Edwards / Clark
McDaniels / Shannon / Minott
Durant / Reid / Minott
Gobert / Reid / Garza

12 spots filled, with the DET 1st and minimums to fill the last 2-3 spots. You are putting expectations on the young guys, but not to where they have to do everything.

Let’s look at your numbers.

A while back I suggested keeping DDV and this is what the starting 5 looked like and cost

$117,399,133: Ant + Rudy + Jaden + DDV

$54,708,609: KD

$117,399,133 + $54,708,609 =$172,107,742.00

$172,107,742.00: Starters with KD

Take out DDV and you save $11,990,000. $172,107,742.00 - $11,990,000 = $160,117,742 for Ant + Jaden + KD + Rudy.

This is before any negotiations with Naz or NAW. Remember we are also hard capped at $207,825,000.

$207,825,000 - $160,117,742 =$47,707,258.00

For that money we need 10 players including our 5th starter.

If Naz demands 20 (very low,) and NAW 14 (probably reasonable,) that is 34 of 47. If Naz demands 25 that is 39 of 47. This is before we get into existing contracts, draft picks, any other math. There clearly is not room. Dilly by himself makes $6,576,120. If you toss him in with Mike and DDV that is all our PG depth. If not, you are hard capped long before you get to spots 10-14.

Another thing to consider is Minott, Miller, and TSJ are all very cheap, just those 3 run you $7,083,208. Again we are talking between 8-13 million for 8 players. It just doesn’t work. Naz has no incentive to opt in, and NAW might settle for a little less than his max potential, but he has yet to make any real money in the league. If a team offers him 12-14 he will likely go unless we match.

[TimberKat]

If ownership willing to paid the tax at 200M and we have: Gobert, KD, JMcD, Ant, Jones (MLE) with DDV, NAW, Clark, TSJ, Minott on the bench. We still could move the bench around to get a bigger player. That is great and optimistic. I definitely we take that over this year's team.

We basically combined (Randle + Naz + Dilly) for (KD + Jones). I am OK with it, would prefer to keep Dilly.

[winforlose]

If ownership willing to paid the tax at 200M and we have: Gobert, KD, JMcD, Ant, Jones (MLE) with DDV, NAW, Clark, TSJ, Minott on the bench. We still could move the bench around to get a bigger player. That is great and optimistic. I definitely we take that over this year's team.

We basically combined (Randle + Naz + Dilly) for (KD + Jones). I am OK with it, would prefer to keep Dilly.

Give me numbers on Jones (I assume you mean Tyus,) and how much of the MLE he gets?

The starting 5 of DDV/Ant/Jaden/KD/Rudy leaves $35,717,258.00.

If NAW takes 12 (very low,) then that leaves $35,717,258.00 - $12,000,000 =$23,717,258.00

$7,083,208: TSJ + Minott + Miller.

$23,717,258.00 - $7,083,208 =$16,634,050.00

Roster so far

1. KD
2. Ant
3. Rudy
4. Jaden
5. NAW
6. DDV
7. TSJ
8. Minott
9. Miller

If you pay the full MLE to Tyus that is $5,685,000.

$16,634,050.00 - $5,685,000 =$10,949,050.00

Now you need 4 players for just under 11 million. Lucky for us we have Clark cheap at $2,191,897.

$10,949,050.00 - $2,191,897 =$8,757,153.00

Now we have 3 players at $8,757,153.00. But no exceptions with which to pay it. Although we do have picks 17, and 31.

17 costs $4,201,080.
31 on a minimum Hinkie is $1,272,870


$4,201,080 + $1,272,870 =$5,473,950.00

$8,757,153.00 - $5,473,950.00 =$3,283,203.00. Spot 14 is a vet minimum, and then we are on the edge of the hard cap. This also assumes we release Garza.


Keep in mind you have gutted our depth at key positions.

PG: DDV, Jones,
SG: Ant, NAW, Clark
SF: Jaden, TSJ
PF: KD, Miller, Minott
C: Rudy

You have so far sacrificed Randle, Naz, Dilly, and Mike for KD.

Tyus can also make more money elsewhere as a backup (he lost money trying to start,) and if we start him over DDV, we probably lose DDV in two years.

I would not sacrifice this much for an expiring who could leverage us for 60+ per year at 38 and 39.

[TimberKat]

If ownership willing to paid the tax at 200M and we have: Gobert, KD, JMcD, Ant, Jones (MLE) with DDV, NAW, Clark, TSJ, Minott on the bench. We still could move the bench around to get a bigger player. That is great and optimistic. I definitely we take that over this year's team.

We basically combined (Randle + Naz + Dilly) for (KD + Jones). I am OK with it, would prefer to keep Dilly.

Give me numbers on Jones (I assume you mean Tyus,) and how much of the MLE he gets?

Jones 3M this year, can we do 4m? He should be in the 3 to 5M range

[jpatrick]

If Mike Conley is ready to retire, I could see his $10,774,038 being included, and then PHX buying him out and stretching him. That would save them about $7 mil off their payroll this year, which would drastically reduce their current tax bill. If Conley wants to keep playing, I expect Tim Connelly to honor his promise, and keep him here with his family.

So Randle ($30,935,520) and Conley ($10,774,038) adds up to $41,709,558, and leaves a gap of $12,999,051.

Remember, FIRST apron restrictions include, not being able to take back more salary in a trade, and unable to acquire a player in a sign-and-trade, so PHX would need to cut a lot of salary elsewhere if we want to include Naz or NAW, as well as Randle if he doesn’t opt in. Donte $12 mil plus a prospect like Minott, Leonard Miller or Garza all have team options, and could get us over the minimum salary we’d need.

Does being over the first apron mean we can’t sign and trade players in the deal? Not that’d I’d necessarily want to include Naz/NAW.

If the two packages are Donte/Conley/Randle or Jaden/Randle are we sure trading Jaden is the wrong move? Would free up more money longterm. His defense and shooting were down this year. Is he any more than a good 5th starter that plays very good defense but can’t space the floor? Is that worth $30m/year.

Just throwing that out there. I could be swayed either way, but I could see Phoenix wanting Jaden since they have two scorers in the backcourt that are not known for defense.

I'd get rid of Finch before I'd get rid of Jaden. He was an elite defender again this year and when he's not relegated to watching Ant and Randle take turns holding the ball, has shown he can be a pretty special offensive player. I really wish Finch would lean into how terrific he is in the mid-range. It would make us so much harder to defend.

As opposed to Durant, how about Markkanen? He was a little down this year but such a better fit than Randle. He’d slid in as the #2 behind Ant, plus his catch and shoot is elite, which would unlock Jaden to go into the midrange.

Something like Randle, Conley, Dillingham? We could throw in Minott or Miller, who I’m not sure have a future here. Too much? Too little?

[winforlose]

Does being over the first apron mean we can’t sign and trade players in the deal? Not that’d I’d necessarily want to include Naz/NAW.

If the two packages are Donte/Conley/Randle or Jaden/Randle are we sure trading Jaden is the wrong move? Would free up more money longterm. His defense and shooting were down this year. Is he any more than a good 5th starter that plays very good defense but can’t space the floor? Is that worth $30m/year.

Just throwing that out there. I could be swayed either way, but I could see Phoenix wanting Jaden since they have two scorers in the backcourt that are not known for defense.

I'd get rid of Finch before I'd get rid of Jaden. He was an elite defender again this year and when he's not relegated to watching Ant and Randle take turns holding the ball, has shown he can be a pretty special offensive player. I really wish Finch would lean into how terrific he is in the mid-range. It would make us so much harder to defend.

As opposed to Durant, how about Markkanen? He was a little down this year but such a better fit than Randle. He’d slid in as the #2 behind Ant, plus his catch and shoot is elite, which would unlock Jaden to go into the midrange.

Something like Randle, Conley, Dillingham? We could throw in Minott or Miller, who I’m not sure have a future here. Too much? Too little?

There are two universes for the Jazz.

Universe one is win the lottery get Flagg, and try to build around Markkanen and Flagg. The other is lose the lottery, and either tank again or trade Markkanen for more picks. In neither case are we gonna get him, much less for that package.

[BlacJacMac]

Does being over the first apron mean we can’t sign and trade players in the deal? Not that’d I’d necessarily want to include Naz/NAW.

If the two packages are Donte/Conley/Randle or Jaden/Randle are we sure trading Jaden is the wrong move? Would free up more money longterm. His defense and shooting were down this year. Is he any more than a good 5th starter that plays very good defense but can’t space the floor? Is that worth $30m/year.

Just throwing that out there. I could be swayed either way, but I could see Phoenix wanting Jaden since they have two scorers in the backcourt that are not known for defense.

I'd get rid of Finch before I'd get rid of Jaden. He was an elite defender again this year and when he's not relegated to watching Ant and Randle take turns holding the ball, has shown he can be a pretty special offensive player. I really wish Finch would lean into how terrific he is in the mid-range. It would make us so much harder to defend.

As opposed to Durant, how about Markkanen? He was a little down this year but such a better fit than Randle. He’d slid in as the #2 behind Ant, plus his catch and shoot is elite, which would unlock Jaden to go into the midrange.

Something like Randle, Conley, Dillingham? We could throw in Minott or Miller, who I’m not sure have a future here. Too much? Too little?

I'd pass on Lauri.

Misses so many games, and at 28 I don't see that improving. Terrible defender, hasn't really been a strong rebounder since 2018.

Also owed 46, 50 and 53M the next 3 years and you're banking on him getting his old form back if he plays for a better team.

Plus Dilly would be the only player in your offer that they'd have any interest in. Randle and Conley make zero sense for them.

[winforlose]

I'd get rid of Finch before I'd get rid of Jaden. He was an elite defender again this year and when he's not relegated to watching Ant and Randle take turns holding the ball, has shown he can be a pretty special offensive player. I really wish Finch would lean into how terrific he is in the mid-range. It would make us so much harder to defend.

As opposed to Durant, how about Markkanen? He was a little down this year but such a better fit than Randle. He’d slid in as the #2 behind Ant, plus his catch and shoot is elite, which would unlock Jaden to go into the midrange.

Something like Randle, Conley, Dillingham? We could throw in Minott or Miller, who I’m not sure have a future here. Too much? Too little?

I'd pass on Lauri.

Misses so many games, and at 28 I don't see that improving. Terrible defender, hasn't really been a strong rebounder since 2018.

Also owed 46, 50 and 53M the next 3 years and you're banking on him getting his old form back if he plays for a better team.

Plus Dilly would be the only player in your offer that they'd have any interest in. Randle and Conley make zero sense for them.

Size, floor spacing, and less defensive attention playing with other stars is the upside. Also remember he keeps getting benched for tanking. I think he probably looks much better on a winner.

[BlacJacMac]

As opposed to Durant, how about Markkanen? He was a little down this year but such a better fit than Randle. He’d slid in as the #2 behind Ant, plus his catch and shoot is elite, which would unlock Jaden to go into the midrange.

Something like Randle, Conley, Dillingham? We could throw in Minott or Miller, who I’m not sure have a future here. Too much? Too little?

I'd pass on Lauri.

Misses so many games, and at 28 I don't see that improving. Terrible defender, hasn't really been a strong rebounder since 2018.

Also owed 46, 50 and 53M the next 3 years and you're banking on him getting his old form back if he plays for a better team.

Plus Dilly would be the only player in your offer that they'd have any interest in. Randle and Conley make zero sense for them.

Size, floor spacing, and less defensive attention playing with other stars is the upside. Also remember he keeps getting benched for tanking. I think he probably looks much better on a winner.

Possible, but you're paying 150M to find out. And he's had a lot of legit injuries/health issues - including a heart problem.

[winforlose]

I'd pass on Lauri.

Misses so many games, and at 28 I don't see that improving. Terrible defender, hasn't really been a strong rebounder since 2018.

Also owed 46, 50 and 53M the next 3 years and you're banking on him getting his old form back if he plays for a better team.

Plus Dilly would be the only player in your offer that they'd have any interest in. Randle and Conley make zero sense for them.

Size, floor spacing, and less defensive attention playing with other stars is the upside. Also remember he keeps getting benched for tanking. I think he probably looks much better on a winner.

Possible, but you're paying 150M to find out. And he's had a lot of legit injuries/health issues - including a heart problem.

I didn’t/don’t know about the heart problem and will need to look into it further.

KD’s trade value is something we don’t discuss enough. Does he get us back any value players, and how would that work logistically with his option?

Edit to add: I looked into the heart issue further, there is nothing there. In 18/19 he had a single episode of rapid heartbeat and fatigue. They shut him down out of caution and ran more tests. He has no official diagnosis of a heart condition, has (as far as a quick Google search could tell) no further heart related incidents, and has never had a further suggestion of a heart issue. It could have been dehydration causing those symptoms, or an underlying infection that since resolved.

[Neeva]

Tbh Id rather take the risk with Zion than Durant. I don’t think Zion’s nba career will end this badly, he will have a redemption on his next team, why not on the Timberwolves??

[winforlose]

Tbh Id rather take the risk with Zion than Durant. I don’t think Zion’s nba career will end this badly, he will have a redemption on his next team, why not on the Timberwolves??

Zion costs $39,446,090. The downside is he hard caps us, the upside is you could trade Randle and Mike if Mike plans to retire. You might need to toss in TSJ as a sweetener, but I wouldn’t give much more than that.

[Mattya]

You are going to have to trade some kind of asset for Zion, even if he is injured all the time. The upside is a in their prime top 10 player locked into a reasonable contract to pair with Ant and who can score at will even with a big who doesn't stretch the floor.

[BlacJacMac]

Zion’s contract also has a lot of protection in it.

[younggunsmn]

Does being over the first apron mean we can’t sign and trade players in the deal? Not that’d I’d necessarily want to include Naz/NAW.

If the two packages are Donte/Conley/Randle or Jaden/Randle are we sure trading Jaden is the wrong move? Would free up more money longterm. His defense and shooting were down this year. Is he any more than a good 5th starter that plays very good defense but can’t space the floor? Is that worth $30m/year.

Just throwing that out there. I could be swayed either way, but I could see Phoenix wanting Jaden since they have two scorers in the backcourt that are not known for defense.

I'd get rid of Finch before I'd get rid of Jaden. He was an elite defender again this year and when he's not relegated to watching Ant and Randle take turns holding the ball, has shown he can be a pretty special offensive player. I really wish Finch would lean into how terrific he is in the mid-range. It would make us so much harder to defend.

As opposed to Durant, how about Markkanen? He was a little down this year but such a better fit than Randle. He’d slid in as the #2 behind Ant, plus his catch and shoot is elite, which would unlock Jaden to go into the midrange.

Something like Randle, Conley, Dillingham? We could throw in Minott or Miller, who I’m not sure have a future here. Too much? Too little?

Markaanen was more than a little bit down this year, he was terrible when he wasn't injured.
John Collins badly outplayed him.
I wouldn't touch that contract now with a ten foot pole.

[winforlose]

You are going to have to trade some kind of asset for Zion, even if he is injured all the time. The upside is a in their prime top 10 player locked into a reasonable contract to pair with Ant and who can score at will even with a big who doesn't stretch the floor.

With his risk profile the bidding will be low and the Pels will want a fresh start. They could hold onto him, but another major injury is another flushed season. I would be willing to include a swap of Gobert for Missi if they want to make more moves, but I think if they trade Zion they will want to rebuild.

[younggunsmn]

Trading for an over the hill sports superstar is like dating a 45 year old Demi Moore.

It might be fun for a bit for nostalgia's sake, but you're both just gonna end up sad

[TimberKat]

Trading for an over the hill sports superstar is like dating a 45 year old Demi Moore.

It might be fun for a bit for nostalgia's sake, but you're both just gonna end up sad

Life is a b* then you die. You could have fun with Demi for a couple years or marry the ugly girl next door for 60 years and keep hoping she turn into a swan.

In a way that is Wolves fan mentality. 30 years of rebuild and never the big dance. We still just want to keep stash asset to build for a future that will never come.

I rather see KD's swan song instead of 20 more years of understudies. Demi let's go out and have some fun even though you are too young for me.