Kevin Love Free Agency/Trade Thread

[AQuintus]

Rubio, Shabazz, Dieng, Thompson, Barnes, #13. Just feels like there is a lot of young, smart talent there.

And almost all of it is on the team regardless of a trade.

Even better: Rubio, Shabazz, Dieng, Sullinger, #6, #13 + No Martin, no Budinger, and no Lee holding us down with their deadweight contracts.

[Krapinsky]

Rubio, Shabazz, Dieng, Thompson, Barnes, #13. Just feels like there is a lot of young, smart talent there.

And almost all of it is on the team regardless of a trade.

Even better: Rubio, Shabazz, Dieng, Sullinger, #6, #13 + No Martin, no Budinger, and no Lee holding us down with their deadweight contracts.

Martin can go in the GSW deal. Sullinger is OK. He found most of his success playing center last year. Not a great fit with Pek.

#6 is probably at least two years away from being an above average player. Here's the history of 6th overall picks.


6th Overall NBA Draft Picks
Year Player Drafted From Drafted By
2013 Nerlens Noel Kentucky New Orleans
2012 Damian Lillard Weber St. Portland
2011 Jan Vesely Belgrade Washington
2010 Ekpe Udoh Baylor Golden State
2009 Jonny Flynn Syracuse Minnesota
2008 Danilo Gallinari Armani Jeans Milano New York
2007 Yi Jianlian China Milwaukee
2006 Brandon Roy Washington Minnesota
2005 Martell Webster WA HSSr. Portland
2004 Josh Childress Stanford Jr. Atlanta
2003 Chris Kaman Central Michigan Jr. LA Clippers
2002 Dajuan Wagner MemphisFr. Cleveland
2001 Shane Battier Duke Sr. Memphis
2000 DerMarr Johnson Cincinnati Fr. Atlanta
1999 Wally Szczerbiak MiamiOH Sr. Minnesota
1998 Robert Traylor Michigan Dallas
1997 Ron Mercer Kentucky Dallas
1996 Antoine Walker Kentucky Boston
1995 Bryant Reeves Oklahoma State Vancouver
1994 Sharone Wright Clemson Philadelphia
1993 Calbert Cheaney Indiana Washington
1992 Tom Gugliotta North Carolina State Washington
1991 Doug Smith Missouri Dallas
1990 Felton Spencer Louisville Minnesota
1989 Stacey King Oklahoma Chicago
1988 Hersey Hawkins Bradley LA Clippers
1987 Kenny Smith North Carolina Sacramento
1986 William Bedford MemphisState Phoenix
1985 Joe Kleine Arkansas Sacramento
1984 Mel Turpin Kentucky Washington
1983 Russell Cross Purdue Golden State
1982 Trent Tucker Minnesota New York
1981 OrlandoWoolridge Notre Dame Chicago
1980 Mike O'Koren North Carolina New Jersey

[JonFromVA]

I'm thinking the TWolves best shot to pry the #1 pick from Cleveland would be to wait for July when free-agency starts.

Not going to happen. If Minnesota doesn't trade Love by draft night, they won't trade Love.

Glen Taylor only said Love wouldn't be traded before the draft. Of course a lot of deals go down before the draft that don't become official until right after - so there could be semantics at play.

I understand why you'd want to get a deal done before the draft and then be able to control who's selected, but is that how your owner & GM are thinking?

They don't want to get in to a situation where they feel they are fire sale'ing Kevin ... after all, the trade deadline is far away; but what possible outcome is better than securing Embiid/Parker/Wiggins?

[AQuintus]

#6 is probably at least two years away from being an above average player. Here's the history of 6th overall picks.

Which means nothing for 2 reasons:

1) Past results are totally independent of future results.

2) The 6th pick gives you access to not only the guys drafted 6th, but also everyone drafted after 6 (i.e. Klay Thomspon, drafted 11th in 2011). Edit: A team drafting poorly at the 6th pick does not devalue the pick itself.

[Krapinsky]

#6 is probably at least two years away from being an above average player. Here's the history of 6th overall picks.

Which means nothing for 2 reasons:

1) Past results are totally independent of future results.

2) The 6th pick gives you access to not only the guys drafted 6th, but also everyone drafted after 6 (i.e. Klay Thomspon, drafted 11th in 2011). Edit: A team drafting poorly at the 6th pick does not devalue the pick itself.

Nothing? Oh ok. How do you put a value on the pick, other than your own subjective value of the player available?

[AQuintus]

Nothing? Oh ok. How do you put a value on the pick, other than your own subjective value of the player available?

Other than my subjective value of the player[s] available? I can't. Draft picks are all about projection, which by its nature is subjective.

But that's the same as you putting additional value to Thompson based on your subjective belief that he will improve going forward.

[Krapinsky]

Nothing? Oh ok. How do you put a value on the pick, other than your own subjective value of the player available?

Other than my subjective value of the player[s] available? I can't. Draft picks are all about projection, which by its nature is subjective.

But that's the same as you putting additional value to Thompson based on your subjective belief that he will improve going forward.

Ok, then who would you take at 6?

Assuming Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Exum, Randle are off the board.

[AQuintus]

Ok, then who would you take at 6?

Assuming Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Exum, Randle are off the board.

Probably Aaron Gordon, but maybe Vonleh or Smart.

Edit: And I wouldn't count out Exum or (especially) Randle from being available, either.

[Krapinsky]

Ok, then who would you take at 6?

Assuming Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Exum, Randle are off the board.

Probably Aaron Gordon, but maybe Vonleh or Smart.

Edit: And I wouldn't count out Exum or (especially) Randle from being available, either.

What kind of impact do you see Gordon and Vonleh having their rookie year? How about in their second year?

[AQuintus]

What kind of impact do you see Gordon and Vonleh having their rookie year? How about in their second year?

Tough to say, I could definitely see Faried-esque impact for Gordon. We'd be much more dependent on Rubio to create offense and much more dependent on fast break points. The defense should be better overall.

I don't think their rookie or even sophomore years matter a ton, though. You draft a guy for his longterm impact, not short term. And if we take the Boston package, it will be for a rebuild.

Edit:

And remember, it's not just 6 vs Thompson. It's 6, Sullinger, losing Budinger, and getting a future 1st from Brooklyn (which could be very high) vs Thompson, Barnes, and having to take back Lee. And that's assuming that GS would even give up Thompson.

[Maefteda]

Gordon is already a better defender than Barnes and would be a prime target for Rubio lobs all day. He has potential as a ballhandler and shooter as well as being a good passer.

Vonleh I don't have much confidence in. He's long, can stretch the floor and block, but he's not that good on either end, because of bad BBIQ I feel. This years McLemore for me. Has all the tools to succeed in his position, but there is just something wrong.

I didn't like the Warriors trade and that was before Celtics and Cavs were in the Love sweepstakes and before GS made Klay untouchable. I'll be so disappointed if we go that route, especially with Warriors in the western conference.

[Krapinsky]

What kind of impact do you see Gordon and Vonleh having their rookie year? How about in their second year?

Tough to say, I could definitely see Faried-esque impact for Gordon. We'd be much more dependent on Rubio to create offense and much more dependent on fast break points. The defense should be better overall.

I don't think their rookie or even sophomore years matter a ton, though. You draft a guy for his longterm impact, not short term. And if we take the Boston package, it will be for a rebuild.

#6 is probably at least two years away from being an above average player.

So then we can probably agree here if it's Vonleh or Gordon?

I'm not sure I have two more lousy seasons in me just to see if these guys pan out into the star players you'll think they will become. Assuming a top 3 pick is out of the question, I'd prefer a package that gives us a shot at the playoffs next year.

[Steve_Holiday]

Which means nothing

Huh?

I don't see how using historical data is a flawed method for projecting the value of a draft pick. NFL teams use value charts based on the same principle in order to simplify the trading process.

Looking through that list of players should sober the expectations of what the proposed Boston trade would really do for the Wolves. #6 + Sullinger + extras looks a lot better than Jan Vesely + Sullinger + extras.

[AQuintus]

So then we can probably agree here if it's Vonleh or Gordon?

Sure, I guess.

I'm not sure I have two more lousy seasons in me just to see if these guys pan out into the star players you'll think they will become.

Do you have two more lousy seasons without ANY hope of any guys panning out into star players? Because that's what I suspect we'd be looking at with the GS trade.

[Krapinsky]

Gordon is already a better defender than Barnes and would be a prime target for Rubio lobs all day. He has potential as a ballhandler and shooter as well as being a good passer.

He shot 42% at the free throw line last year. This guy could be quite the project. I like his ahtleticism and I like his intangibles, but even Blake Griffin, free throw troubles in all, never shot worse than 58%.

If he can't shoot, seems to me there's a chance that Gordon could have a first two years must like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

[AQuintus]

I don't see how using historical data is a flawed method for projecting the value of a draft pick. NFL teams use value charts based on the same principle in order to simplify the trading process.

Past drafts are not this draft. What happened in those drafts is in no way determinative of what will happen in this draft.

And the NFL draft is very different from the NBA draft, if nothing else, due to the huge amount of picks.

Looking through that list of players should sober the expectations of what the proposed Boston trade would really do for the Wolves. #6 + Sullinger + extras looks a lot better than Jan Vesely + Sullinger + extras.

Again, with the 6th pick you also have the option of taking anyone that was available after the 6th pick. Just because those teams drafted poorly with the pick does not mean that the pick is worth any less.

[AQuintus]

If he can't shoot, seems to me there's a chance that Gordon could have a first two years must like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

I don't see the comparison since they play different positions. Lack of shooting from a big man hurts the team less than lack of shooting from a wing.

[Krapinsky]

Do you have two more lousy seasons without ANY hope of any guys panning out into star players? Because that's what I suspect we'd be looking at with the GS trade.

That seems like nonsense to me. I don't know what you mean by star players, but I think almost anyone would say that both Thompson and Barnes have a chance of becoming all-star players someday, and in Thompson's case, a pretty darn good chance.

[Krapinsky]

If he can't shoot, seems to me there's a chance that Gordon could have a first two years must like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.

I don't see the comparison since they play different positions. Lack of shooting from a big man hurts the team less than lack of shooting from a wing.

You'd be taking a bad shooting team, and replacing our best shooter, with the worst one in the draft that's not a center. Not sure how Joerger can make his offensive magic happen with that.

[AQuintus]

You'd be taking a bad shooting team, and replacing our best shooter, with the worst one in the draft that's not a center. Not sure how Joerger can make his offensive magic happen with that.

1) Pick-and-roll!
2) Add shooters on the wings (i.e. Stauskas at 13).

Edit:
Also, despite his terrible FT shooting, Gordon still shot 35% from the college 3.

Edit 2:

but I think almost anyone would say that both Thompson and Barnes have a chance of becoming all-star players someday, and in Thompson's case, a pretty darn good chance.

Once again, agree to disagree. Barnes barely has a chance to develop into a quality starter. His chances of being an all-star are about the same as Derrick Williams' chances.

I agree with Thompson, there's a chance that he'll be an All-star some day, but it won't be because he's got all-star impact. Any chance he has (which is remote with how deep Guard is in the West) will be due to the GS hype train (the same one that had people thinking Anthony Randolph would be an all-star someday way back when).