Jedzz wrote:shangrila wrote:Jedzz wrote:
Projected %? Maxey and Edwards are both 29% in college that I see. Edwards had comparatively high attempts to everyone. Maxey does not. You struggle to see how? The numbers are just what they did in college. Maybe the hype just got to you on some of these players? Maybe you have a point that some take more contested shots and it impacts their percentage. But others might say that's a sign a player has better bbiq in the moment and picks their shots better or can create their own space better. It's hard to say. Westbrook is a star player and yet people complain about his percentage in individual games all the time. He'll toss them up whenever and miss them even if he's wide open sometimes. But he can hit plenty as well. More streaky. See his 34% to 41% difference in two college seasons.
These are just what these current NBA players were doing in college for perspective. Would be cool to see a breakdown of contested shots if you want to find that info. But it also probably matters what competition they were against and other variables.
I also posted the guard/combo/shooting/and taller wings of this draft. Some interesting player numbers in there.
Projected 3pt% is a stat that takes into account college 3pt%, 3PAs and FT%. It's not set in stone or anything but it's an attempt to predict what their rookie shooting %s will be based on the historical correlation between those previous 3 stats.
That's why I say I don't buy them as bad shooters and why I'd like to see contested numbers. Maxey has an issue with his mechanics (shoots forwards, not up, hurts his arc and why he front rims a lot of 3s. But that's easily fixable) but Edwards' mechanics seem fine so it leads me to believe it's more an issue with his shot selection. I thought I read on a mock, I think one of the CBS ones, that Edwards took something like 111 contested jumpers and made 20-30 of them. I wish I could find it but yeah, if true that gives me hope his %s are worse on paper than an actual indicator of his ability.
You might know more about the intracasies of correcting a broken shot than me. But I for one have heard how teams plan to fix a players broken shot a hundred times and it never went anywhere. Most of those center around Timberwolves draft picks but some others. I understand and believe players can improve their shot. Just last year I saw Thybulle bring a consistent form and successfull 3pt shot into his rookie season that he never seemed to have in college. He did fall off that wagon a bit during the season but that I kind of expect and he'll get more work in this offseason to pick it back up, and given the proof already seen I expect him to shoot even better next season.
That is interesting to find out there is a stat such as that. However, personally I won't be putting much stock into a projected 3pt% stat for college kids that have never stepped into a NBA game yet. People are just trying to be positive or something is my guess. I'll wait for the day they prove it and they sure haven't yet. I mean you chose to use two examples that are going to need to jack their percenage from sub .300 all the way to near .400 in order to be more worthy of a higher draft pick than the 4-6 players that already have shown numbers well over .400 and are taller and shooting a healthy amount themslves. I honestly haven't even heard any solid reasoning why these players aren't already rated and projected as higher picks. I assume any major leap in shooting percentage will take a few seasons and so that means they likely shouldn't be top 15 picks to me. Just like I assumed for Culver last season. He needed development time, not to be treated like a top of draft pick that should be starting games as a rookie. But here we are again with players with the same issues, this time one of them at the very top. Go figure why.
Edwards is the one with the highest attempts per game and this could very well speak to an impact on his shooting percentage. I've seen the clips of his shooting and it looks alright. Maybe he's just got be more choosey and use his teammates more. But if he can elevate that percentage, quite a bit mind you, the experience of chucking even when cold and all those late game attempts will serve him well. It's common for a precentage to drop some as the attempts go high. However that's not a guarantee either and there are some high 5s and 6s attempts/g in the list I posted from other college players that maintained over .400. I fully expect them to shoot well in the NBA before I'll expect Maxey to who struggled at just over 3 attempts/g. I swear people are buying hype on this one and I don't know where it is coming from. I don't see it. It's just my opinion but no one is offering anything solid against these other players that isn't already true for that guy or worse. In fact it doesn't seem like anyone wants to talk about anyone that has already proven a higher shooting ability. It's like a detriment come draft time.
In terms of the stat, as I said it's not set in stone. All it is is another tool to use when trying to project a prospect. It certainly isn't "people trying to be positive", it's something that was born from the correlation mainly between college FT% and future NBA 3pt%. In a lot of ways it's a statistical measure of their form, as good form will always present itself in FT% (due to the static and controlled nature of the shot) vs a college 3pt% where things can vary wildly.
I can understand about being wary of developing another shot too. I get it, with Culver now and others in the past (Wiggins, Derrick Williams, even Okogie is heading in that direction unfortunately). But it does happen and so it's worth factoring in when trying to judge these prospects.
As for your last point...well, I'm not really sure what you're trying to say there. The part about elite shooters being looked down on is strange. Most of them are only that high because of their shooting. Without it, honestly, a guy like Nesmith probably wouldn't even be drafted. And when it comes to Edwards and Maxey, I don't try to justify their shooting potential because I want to draft them specifically AS shooters but because it's brought up as a weakness that, personally, I don't think is an issue. Which, if they can shoot, improves the rest of their profile as a prospect. I mean, if Edwards' shot is real then he's a 3 level scorer in the NBA (with proper shot selection, of course). For Maxey, it turns him into the kind of combo guard that can play on or off ball that most teams in the league would love to have. Without their shots then Edwards will struggle to utilize his driving and Maxey might be a slightly better Frank Ntilikina.
