RealGM

Contention: The current NBA lottery system is flawed because it doesn’t do its best to promote parity, and it encourages tanking.

Problem: No other major professional can be so impacted by a superstar draftee as the NBA. Only five players are on the court at one time, and they play both offense and defense. This makes it critical that these potential superstars go to the franchises where they are needed most. A system that makes it economically correct to tank to get these high-value players is flawed. This system must differentiate between truly bad teams from artificially bad ones, who are tanking or are already a good team which has a brief down year (usually through injury).

Solution: The lottery system order should be based on a weighted average of win/loss.

50% on the record for last season
30% on the record of the season before that
20% on the record of the season before that.

This system differentiates truly bad teams. Tanking is an economic cost to franchises in ticket sales, merchandise, etc. in this system, tanking has only half the impact on a team’s draft position. Also, it would take three full years of tanking to get the full effect, which would be very expensive.

The system differentiates temporarily bad teams, often when a star gets a one-season injury. The Warriors did not need the #2 pick in the 2020 draft, and the Spurs didn’t need Tim Duncan when David Robinson missed a year.

The system rewards truly bad teams, who’s franchises (and their fanbase), need a better shot at a potential superstar. The system promotes parity, and it promotes profitability, instead of leaving non-free agent destinations without hope.

To complete the process, I would recommend that you continue to still use lottery odds, but with less probability that distant teams get top picks. Also, since this system is intentionally slower to respond, I would propose that if a team gets a top 4 lottery pick, it is ineligible for another top 4 pick the next season (and slides to number 5). This gives more teams a chance at a superstar, and doesn’t reward a team who has been bad for two years, just got one, but he hasn’t taken the team out of the lottery in his rookie season (think Wembanyama).

Top lottery players are always going to be extremely valuable, and the NBA needs a system that insures that they go to truly bad teams for parity and hope. This simple improvement will increase those odds, and simultaneously decrease tanking.

Neeva wrote:Of course Atlanta gets the top pick in a draft with no real star at the top. Let the Kat to atlanta trade talks commence.

KGdaBom wrote:Atlanta picking top 4. Does that make a KAT trade to the Hawks less likely?
Spurs get 4
Rockets 3
Wizards 2
Hawks get 1st pick with only 3% chance.

KGdaBom wrote:

Neeva wrote:Of course Atlanta gets the top pick in a draft with no real star at the top. Let the Kat to atlanta trade talks commence.

I think it makes it less likely.

shrink wrote:IND is putting an ass-kicking on the Knicks .. 47-19

KGdaBom wrote:

shrink wrote:IND is putting an ass-kicking on the Knicks .. 47-19

Shocking like when the Wolves demolished the Nuggets at Denver followed by the Nuggets demolishing the Wolves in Mpls.

life_saver wrote:I can't wait for league to expand and Wolves to move to Eastern conference. Celtics path to finals is literally a joke..just disparity between both the conferences

Neeva wrote:

life_saver wrote:I can't wait for league to expand and Wolves to move to Eastern conference. Celtics path to finals is literally a joke..just disparity between both the conferences

Tbh dallas/thunder look very beatable, get rid of conferences. The semi finals and finals would probably be all west teams most years though.