Okogie’s future on the Wolves

[FinnTheHuman]

I hate to say it, but if he hasn’t developed a much-needed three point shot by now, I just don’t think it’s coming.

He was Town’s closest friend before DLo got here, but I don’t think there is any rush to re-sign him. The team has too many one-way players. Without a three point shot, my guess is that if we made him an offer next year, it’s around the $3-4 mil range - but it’s likely he’d not back next year, and we use the slot for a player that has a higher ceiling.

This is what I'm thinking too. I'd cap him at around a Layman contract.

He's capped at around Layman contract if the ownership and FO are thinking this way: owning an NBA franchise is a business that can't fail, so let's just give contracts to guys who we and our stars like to hang out with, regardless of their marginal odds of improving at basketball enough to help make us a relevant nba team. Okogie is currently on a level that should put him out of the league, literally a guy who does nothing offensively. We're supposed to be using every roster spot on guys who can have a reasonable chance to to become valuable rotation pieces, that's how successful franchises do business.

[winforlose]

People don’t seem to appreciate how much JO improved his inside game in the last 2 years. That tells me with the proper coaching and time he can improve his jump shooting. Even at 33% from distance he would be extremely dangerous. We need to re-sign him and let him develop (help him fix his shot.) I mean for gosh sakes he’s only 23.

He shot a career low from 0-3 and had the lowest FTA/36 of his career last year.

33% from 3 would be a massive increase for him. He's shot 28/27/27 for his career.

He was a non-factor on his team in the Olympics. That's not a good sign for a guy who wants to be in an NBA rotation.

http://www.fiba.basketball/olympics/men/2020/player/Josh-Okogie

It’s not that I don’t see where you are coming from, it’s that I don’t think we talking about the same thing exactly. I am talking about potential and how it can be utilized. For example compare the Finch numbers to the Saunders numbers from last season. Okogie is not a Swiss Army knife that can give you anything you need when you need it. He is a defensive specialist who can do some things well on offense when properly utilized. He also rebounds his position well and fights for lose balls. I like many of you agree he needs to improve. My point is that he is 23 years old and hasn’t had great coaching to help him. Give him some proper coaching and help him fix his shot and watch out. The reason I think he can learn is because he is much more consistent at the rim then he was as a Rookie. Honestly, lack of improving during the Covid offseason of 20-21 seems more normal than not. I want to see what he brings back after a more normal offseason and what Finch can do to unlock his potential.

[BlacJacMac]

People don’t seem to appreciate how much JO improved his inside game in the last 2 years. That tells me with the proper coaching and time he can improve his jump shooting. Even at 33% from distance he would be extremely dangerous. We need to re-sign him and let him develop (help him fix his shot.) I mean for gosh sakes he’s only 23.

He shot a career low from 0-3 and had the lowest FTA/36 of his career last year.

33% from 3 would be a massive increase for him. He's shot 28/27/27 for his career.

He was a non-factor on his team in the Olympics. That's not a good sign for a guy who wants to be in an NBA rotation.

http://www.fiba.basketball/olympics/men/2020/player/Josh-Okogie

It’s not that I don’t see where you are coming from, it’s that I don’t think we talking about the same thing exactly. I am talking about potential and how it can be utilized. For example compare the Finch numbers to the Saunders numbers from last season. Okogie is not a Swiss Army knife that can give you anything you need when you need it. He is a defensive specialist who can do some things well on offense when properly utilized. He also rebounds his position well and fights for lose balls. I like many of you agree he needs to improve. My point is that he is 23 years old and hasn’t had great coaching to help him. Give him some proper coaching and help him fix his shot and watch out. The reason I think he can learn is because he is much more consistent at the rim then he was as a Rookie. Honestly, lack of improving during the Covid offseason of 20-21 seems more normal than not. I want to see what he brings back after a more normal offseason and what Finch can do to unlock his potential.

Again, it was his worst year shooting at the rim of his 3 year career.

By all accounts, he's a great guy. And he plays really hard. But I'm not sure he's in the rotation of a good team.

He's a train-wreck on offense. Can't shoot, out of control when he tries to drive. Doesn't get many assists or trips to the line, turns it over too much.

And on defense, he's great at the splashy plays, but I'm not sure he's a consistently good defender. He's always engaged and he has great physical gifts that let him get away with being over-aggressive at times, but I don't think his overall defensive impact is nearly good enough to make him a positive player.

[Note30]

Keep him, the most I would pay is prob 4.5m a year for 4 years.

[minimus]

As for today I'd offer him Layman type of contract 3 year / 11 mil, with 3rd team option

[SmokeyPaw]

At this point I dont see him as a regular rotation player on a decent team - just a situational defensive specialist. As a fa I think he'd struggle to get more than the minimum.

[FinnTheHuman]

At this point I dont see him as a regular rotation player on a decent team - just a situational defensive specialist. As a fa I think he'd struggle to get more than the minimum.

Nooo, let's pay him above his market value because he was BFF with KAT until DLo came, and because he comes off as a mature young adult. That's how you decide on who you're gonna pay millions to play basketball lmao. Maybe Layman money, yea, because Layman was worth it too! Winning? Who cares about winning, gotta keep the Timberpups' tails wagging.

[old school 34]

We have a lot of guys in the 'are they back next year?' camp....

Rfa's-- Okogie, Naz, Nowell, Wright, & Knight (where essentially we'll have matching rights on all of them)?

We talk about how it's a big year for a lot of the core pieces....but extremely big for this secondary group as well?

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

[winforlose]

We have a lot of guys in the 'are they back next year?' camp....

Rfa's-- Okogie, Naz, Nowell, Wright, & Knight (where essentially we'll have matching rights on all of them)?

We talk about how it's a big year for a lot of the core pieces....but extremely big for this secondary group as well?

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

I think the bigger question is how open is the new ownerships check book. I haven’t looked into this that much, but to my knowledge neither of the new owners is ultra wealthy like some other teams owners. As more and more contenders push the tax limit further and further we need to ask how much are we willing to spend to compete.

Also there is a question of other teams valuing our talent. A breakout year might draw interest in one, but RFAs are hard to lure away without overpaying, and the issue will then be how much do those other teams value a JO or Nowell, or Reid to overspend and tie up cap space knowing we can and likely would match.

[TaylorTag]

As the OP of this thread, can admit I was surprised to see him in the starting lineup last night.

Maybe we are trying to boost his trade value?

[Klomp]

As the OP of this thread, can admit I was surprised to see him in the starting lineup last night.

Maybe we are trying to boost his trade value?

I think a couple things went into that. Everyone's been talking about how defense has been the theme of camp and will be key to seeing the court. What better way to keep nailing that point than to reward the guy who is very good on defense.

[D1SGRUNTL3D]

This was kinda funny…last night after a whistle because of a foul on the wolves, the ball was in okogies hands. Sometimes players shoot a few shots for giggle after the whistles been blown. Okogie bricked 2 consecutive shots within 3 feet of the hoop.

[TaylorTag]

As the OP of this thread, can admit I was surprised to see him in the starting lineup last night.

Maybe we are trying to boost his trade value?

I think a couple things went into that. Everyone's been talking about how defense has been the theme of camp and will be key to seeing the court. What better way to keep nailing that point than to reward the guy who is very good on defense.

Yeah, that makes sense.

I look at it this way... Our top 9 is KAT, D'Lo, Ant, McDaniels, Beasely, Beverley, Prince, and one of Okogie/Vanderbilt.

I thought Vando would be in the starting lineup to start the season, so I assumed that meant Okogie was on the outside looking in as far as cracking the core rotation, i.e., he would be our 10th man.

Was wrong about which energetic, plus defender Finch would lean on in the first preseason game, but was right about how the rotation is set -- Vando was the 5th bench guy to sub in the game (meaning 9 players saw the floor ahead of him)...

I still think Vando will see a lot of minutes this season with Naz Reid and our second unit, but maybe Finch thinks Okogie is a better fit offensively with the starting unit than Vando.

[NebWolvesFan]

As the OP of this thread, can admit I was surprised to see him in the starting lineup last night.

Maybe we are trying to boost his trade value?

I think a couple things went into that. Everyone's been talking about how defense has been the theme of camp and will be key to seeing the court. What better way to keep nailing that point than to reward the guy who is very good on defense.

Yeah, that makes sense.

I look at it this way... Our top 9 is KAT, D'Lo, Ant, McDaniels, Beasely, Beverley, Prince, and one of Okogie/Vanderbilt.

I thought Vando would be in the starting lineup to start the season, so I assumed that meant Okogie was on the outside looking in as far as cracking the core rotation, i.e., he would be our 10th man.

Was wrong about which energetic, plus defender Finch would lean on in the first preseason game, but was right about how the rotation is set -- Vando was the 5th bench guy to sub in the game (meaning 9 players saw the floor ahead of him)...

I still think Vando will see a lot of minutes this season with Naz Reid and our second unit, but maybe Finch thinks Okogie is a better fit offensively with the starting unit than Vando.

V8 is this team's second-best rebounder behind KAT. Vando had 7 boards in 17 minutes. He's going to have to play or this team will get destroyed on the boards. If Okogie can make even 1/3 of his corner 3s, I like him with the second unit of Bev, Beas, Prince, Naz and Okogie - scoring from Beas, Prince and Reid and defense from Bev and Okogie.

[m2002brian]

As the OP of this thread, can admit I was surprised to see him in the starting lineup last night.

Maybe we are trying to boost his trade value?

Conspiracy theorists in me says, we put him with the starters so that when Ben joins us, we don’t see and offensive drop off. Although Okogie’s a better 3pt shooter. That’s not saying much.

[Irishniner]

If he can shoot even a tiny bit and just hangs out in the corner or attacks the rim in transition, I'm happy enough. If he shoots anywhere in the low to mid 30s from 3, he's a great role player that would be a good fit on any team for 20-30 mins a night.

It's important for a team as lacking in defense and defensive effort as ours, to have a few guys like himself, Vando and Pat Bev in the rotation to set the tone and really provide a spark on that end. We've had years of teams doing what ever they want on that end and blowing the team out by double digits, even when we've had offensively decent teams.

He also seems like a gem of a guy as well. If the money is right sign him to a long term deal. With Gorgui, we overpaid. If Gorgui was on 8 mill a year, he would still be here probably.

[Irishniner]

I also think our depth could be a big strength this year if we are healthy. I think keeping Beasley out of the starting lineup for someone like Josh helps balance the roster. If Dlo runs the 2nd unit, our bench will have Dlo, Beasley, Vando or Okogie (depending on matchup), Reid maybe Bolmaro if he looks good.

We've like 9 decent rotation players and our bench players have decent experience as well, so we could have a top 15 bench which really helps. We can have nights where our starters are -5, but we win anyway, which is the opposite of what we usually have where our bench gets blown out every second game.

[SmokeyPaw]

I think a couple things went into that. Everyone's been talking about how defense has been the theme of camp and will be key to seeing the court. What better way to keep nailing that point than to reward the guy who is very good on defense.

Yeah, that makes sense.

I look at it this way... Our top 9 is KAT, D'Lo, Ant, McDaniels, Beasely, Beverley, Prince, and one of Okogie/Vanderbilt.

I thought Vando would be in the starting lineup to start the season, so I assumed that meant Okogie was on the outside looking in as far as cracking the core rotation, i.e., he would be our 10th man.

Was wrong about which energetic, plus defender Finch would lean on in the first preseason game, but was right about how the rotation is set -- Vando was the 5th bench guy to sub in the game (meaning 9 players saw the floor ahead of him)...

I still think Vando will see a lot of minutes this season with Naz Reid and our second unit, but maybe Finch thinks Okogie is a better fit offensively with the starting unit than Vando.

V8 is this team's second-best rebounder behind KAT. Vando had 7 boards in 17 minutes. He's going to have to play or this team will get destroyed on the boards. If Okogie can make even 1/3 of his corner 3s, I like him with the second unit of Bev, Beas, Prince, Naz and Okogie - scoring from Beas, Prince and Reid and defense from Bev and Okogie.

The problem with that 2nd unit is there is little shot creation ability. I'm expecting them to juggle minutes so that at least one of DLO or Ant is on the floor. Nowell might see minutes as well, especially on nights DLO or Ant is out.

[Klomp]

How far should teams go? What amount should players accept? It’s tricky, but fortunately, I have a method for quantifying this exact problem. By using a player’s BORD$ projection for the coming season, applying an age curve and a minutes projection and mapping out future salary-cap projections, I arrive at a player’s Expected Extension Value — what I will call EEV short.

EEV contains many caveats, of course. Not every player follows the same aging curve, for starters; teams have to subjectively estimate how much upside (and downside) each individual case carries. Additionally, my mildly rosy cap projection (5 percent increases each year, except for a 10 percent rise with the new TV contract in 2024-25) isn’t automatically guaranteed. I think the last 18 months hammered that home for everyone.

But EEV offers us an estimate. Having that as a guide at least signals whether a contract range is basically sane or completely idiotic. It’s fun to look back now and see what this methodology projected a year ago; the deals for John Collins, Markelle Fultz, Luke Kennard, Derrick White, Josh Hart and Jarrett Allen ended up almost spot on to their ultimate contract amounts.

Josh Okogie, Wolves (20th pick), EEV: four years, $51 million
BORD$ seems to overrate defensive specialists, so one can argue that’s happened here with Okogie, a talented, disruptive on-ball defender whose poor shooting and decision-making have consistently cut into his minutes. My method suggests he’s worth MLE money or a bit more. In reality, I have a hard time seeing that happen right now, especially with Minnesota’s tight salary situation vis-à-vis the tax.

https://theathletic.com/2871355/2021/10/06/hollinger-evaluating-contract-extensions-for-deandre-ayton-collin-sexton-and-rest-of-the-2018-class/

[moonpie]

That's a lot of money for Josh. Guess it'll depend on if he can show to be a consistent 3 point threat this year. 3 years/$18M for me