Kevin Durant

[winforlose]

For the record, this year, his age 36 seasons have, Durant is

#6 MPG 36.8
#6 PPG 26.9
#18 TS% .638
#15 BPG 1.5

He’s a top 10 NBA player, even stuck in PHX. He’s not dead yet.

Where was Mike last year? Where was PG last year? Where was Westbrook his last top year?

[shrink]

I was curious, so I looked up the active players who have played the most minutes in their career.

1. LeBron James 58398
2. Chris Paul 44961
3. Kevin Durant 40627
4. Russell Westbrook 40482
5. DeMar DeRozan 40357

Harden is close, then a 3000 minute gap to Kyle Lowry.

These guys are mostly playing at very high levels, far later into their careers than we would have expected in previous years. Certainly advancements in modern science has increased the shelf life of the players who commit to it, and the length of careers are no longer as limited as we would have once predicted.

[winforlose]

I am not sold on Durant either, but I think you have constructed logical fallacies to support your position.

You are fixated on the question, “Does Durant guarantee a WCF finals appearance?” and have posted it many times. Of course, the answer is no. But does trading for any player GUARANTEE one? Of course not.

And does NOT trading for Durant and keeping our good to mediocre players GUARANTEE one? Of course not.

And yes, players get older and decline, and there is no GUARANTEE. But why compare KD at 36 to Mike Conley? Why not compare him to LeBron at 36, who is a similar caliber player who has had a similar role? He’s 40, and his age 36-40 seasons have been All NBA. Lately we have seen some elite players be terrific far longer than expected.

In the NBA, there aren’t any guarantees about the future, yet you have made that your requirement to justify a KD trade, and that’s not a fair standard.

1. About a guarantee, my point is the uncertainty. KD is expiring. He can leave for nothing. If we do poorly or don’t pay his supermax at 38 or 39 then all of this could be a one year rental. I am not comfortable with this level of risk for such a low likelihood of reward. Especially considering that having Ant/Jaden/Naz/and KD would essentially force small ball and would make it very hard to have a proper second unit.

2. Lebron is the most extreme outlier. Nobody ages like LeBron. Conley is the more common story. You might counter with CP3 and I raise you a Westbrook. Paul George is only 34 and already a negative asset. Everything in this conversation is risk/reward, and KD at 37 is a high risk.

If you demand certainty and guarantees, then you are watching the wrong sport, my friend.

It is especially unfair to use certainty as the yardstick to eliminate possibilities.

Then let’s use reality. KD is a 54 million dollar player. He is on an expiring contract. He has left 4 teams in his career, and in every case that team was in a very bad place when he did. KD is the age when most players start to decline. KD is not a PG or C so adding him to Ant/Jaden/Naz means we are playing a starting 5 without one of the two. To trade for KD we must aggregate, which means we must be hard capped. We are already at $190,140,061 if Naz opts in. Opting out you can take it to $175,117,639 but now you have to pay Naz and backfill the players you aggravated and probably lose NAW in the bargain. Are these facts enough to dissuade you?

[shrink]

The GM play for acquiring Durant is the same one BOS used for a Championship. They had one true star (Pierce/Ant), traded for a top an older Top 10 player (KG/KD), Got a 3P-shooting third star (Ray Allen/Naz), and had a young fourth guy (Rondo/Jaden). This was an all-in move, and all-in moves are usually required to reach championship level. In fact, we are more pot-committed to making an all-in move, since we gave up so many assets to get Gobert - a player BOS didn’t have at the time.

I’m not committed to a Durant trade, but these are the types of discussions actual GMs make, who are truly trying to win a ring.

[shrink]

KD costs 54, Randle is $31 million, DDV is $11,990,000. The money does not work. If Mike is willing to be traded or we are willing to break our promise to Mike, and add his $10,774,038 then we get close (Minott as well probably.) KD eats every penny of Randle’s savings which we planned to use to keep guys, and we add a hard cap for aggregating. Good luck paying Naz and NAW

I thought I’d bring this over, because it’s so useful.

One thing that I don’t think is getting enough attention is that MIN was at the stage at the last trade deadline that they were making calls to see if there were teams willing to eat salary to see if they could make a Durant trade fly. This would mean that on the current roster, they had come up with enough outgoing salary to make a deal legal!

Checking the math, we were $16.1 mil over the second apron, and Durant makes $51.2, so we would have had to send out $66.3 mil to be able to legally aggregate salaries. We wouldn’t trade Ant, and Gobert can’t be traded yet.

$33.1 Randle, then ???
$11.4 DDV ??
$10.0 Conley ?!?
—————————
$54.5

That still leaves us nearly $12 mil short!

You could cobble something together with Dillingham + NAW + vet min, but mid-season, a 6-for-1 trade isn’t going to happen, because teams would have to waive so many of their players before the deal to have the roster spaces.

The only way this deal happens is if Connelly was willing to include either Jaden or Naz Reid.

[shrink]

The only way this deal happens is if Connelly was willing to include either Jaden or Naz Reid.

It’s hard for me to pick which is more likely (or least painful!)

The case for Naz would be that Durant duplicates a lot of what he does. Naz is due a new contract. Connelly was going to let Naz walk two years ago, but Taylor stopped him.

The case for Jaden is that since he’s more expensive, it would allow Connelly to keep either Mike Conley or DDV, whichever he felt more attached to (if a deal didn’t require DDV’s value).

So, NAW(Dillingham)/Ant/Jaden/Durant/Gobert or DDV(Conley?)/Ant/Naz?/Durant/Gobert?


I also wanted to mention that a trade for KD at the deadline gave MIN an additional shot in the playoffs this year, plus the salary gap is smaller, with Durant making less than this summer, and Randle making more. Still, a rising second apron this summer will help. Also, a deal a few weeks ago wouldn’t require Randle to opt in, and players like Naz couldn’t stop a trade by refusing to S&T (which is an additional problem for second apron teams to receive a S&T!). A KD trade will be messier this summer.

[winforlose]

The only way this deal happens is if Connelly was willing to include either Jaden or Naz Reid.

It’s hard for me to pick which is more likely (or least painful!)

The case for Naz would be that Durant duplicates a lot of what he does. Naz is due a new contract. Connelly was going to let Naz walk two years ago, but Taylor stopped him.

The case for Jaden is that since he’s more expensive, it would allow Connelly to keep either Mike Conley or DDV, whichever he felt more attached to (if a deal didn’t require DDV’s value).

So, NAW(Dillingham)/Ant/Jaden/Durant/Gobert or DDV(Conley?)/Ant/Naz?/Durant/Gobert?


I also wanted to mention that a trade for KD at the deadline gave MIN an additional shot in the playoffs this year, plus the salary gap is smaller, with Durant making less than this summer, and Randle making more. Still, a rising second apron this summer will help. Also, a deal a few weeks ago wouldn’t require Randle to opt in, and players like Naz couldn’t stop a trade by refusing to S&T (which is an additional problem for second apron teams to receive a S&T!). A KD trade will be messier this summer.

Trading a pre prime player and talking about how they look now is somewhat short sighted. How will Naz look in 2 years, how will Jaden? We hope for big improvements by Ant, why not them?

[Klomp]

KD's salary is basically what KAT makes, albeit 1 yr+ PO shorter contract than KAT, so I don't think Wolves are serious about getting him

This seems to be a common rebuttal. However, I think a few things are important to remember. I don't think that dealing with the second apron will be a one-size-fits-all for any franchise. Just because we operate one way one year doesn't mean that it's how we'll always operate. I also think the timing of the ownership situation was significant, as far as the creating flexibility last August. There were simply a lot of unknowns, so there needed to be flexibility. With the ownership dispute behind us, they can move forward on one clear path rather than straddling two.

Also regarding Towns and Durant, I think the front office viewed KAT's as an issue because it goes for four years. Durant's only going two years may be scary for a fan base, but I think it presents again as the flexibility piece for the front office. In case of career-altering injury, a four-year deal at 35% of the cap does way more damage than a two-year deal at 35% of the cap.

[Klomp]

Unwilling to include: Edwards, Reid
Prefer not to include, but willing to discuss: McDaniels, Clark, DiVincenzo, Dillingham, Shannon
Willing to include: Gobert, Conley, Garza, Minott, Miller
Want to include: Randle

[frankenwolf]

NO. No deal for no one. Not interested. Internal improvement is best going forward. Little cap space and few tradable picks. Let's roll with what we have, find a trade partner for Randle and get a young C like Wolf or Broomie.

[BlacJacMac]

McDaniels is a complete dealbreaker for me. 2nd only to Edwards.

[younggunsmn]

And yes, players get older and decline, and there is no GUARANTEE. But why compare KD at 36 to Mike Conley? Why not compare him to LeBron at 36, who is a similar caliber player who has had a similar role? He’s 40, and his age 36-40 seasons have been All NBA. Lately we have seen some elite players be terrific far longer than expected.

In the NBA, there aren’t any guarantees about the future, yet you have made that your requirement to justify a KD trade, and that’s not a fair standard.

Really really poor comparison.
Because Lebron is built like a TANK and Durant is built like a BICYCLE.

A better comparison would be a Wizards era Jordan.
Jordan played his last year with the Bulls and won his last title at age 35.

Maybe you get one good year out of Durant if he can stay healthy, then you are looking at Wizards era Jordan.
And over-38 rules limit giving him a longer extension anyway.
So whatever way you are looking at it, trading for Durant is a short term gamble.

[minimus]

McDaniels is a complete dealbreaker for me. 2nd only to Edwards.

Yep. KD and Reid duo makes sense ONLY if McDaniels AND one of Clark/NAW are in rotation.

[BlacJacMac]

McDaniels is a complete dealbreaker for me. 2nd only to Edwards.

Yep. KD and Reid duo makes sense ONLY if McDaniels AND one of Clark/NAW are in rotation.

I don't want to trade Naz, but he has nothing to do with me not wanting to trade Jaden.

I think we're starting to see that Jaden can be a legit 2-way star. Hopefully Finch is smart enough to keep him in the role he's currently playing when we get everyone back.

[Klomp]

McDaniels is a complete dealbreaker for me. 2nd only to Edwards.

The ONLY reason I have him in the second group instead of the first is the supposed positional overlap with Durant combined with the higher salary and trade value. It could honestly be the difference between say putting McDaniels in a trade or putting say both DiVincenzo and Dillingham in the deal, for an example.

But I have zero qualms with people who are unwilling to include him in a potential deal like this.

[Klomp]

McDaniels is a complete dealbreaker for me. 2nd only to Edwards.

Yep. KD and Reid duo makes sense ONLY if McDaniels AND one of Clark/NAW are in rotation.

That's a very fair point.

[Klomp]

And yes, players get older and decline, and there is no GUARANTEE. But why compare KD at 36 to Mike Conley? Why not compare him to LeBron at 36, who is a similar caliber player who has had a similar role? He’s 40, and his age 36-40 seasons have been All NBA. Lately we have seen some elite players be terrific far longer than expected.

In the NBA, there aren’t any guarantees about the future, yet you have made that your requirement to justify a KD trade, and that’s not a fair standard.

Really really poor comparison.
Because Lebron is built like a TANK and Durant is built like a BICYCLE.

We're talking only a 10-game difference in games played in the last 4 seasons, including the fact that Durant was coming off a severe achilles injury at that time.

[DaMplsKid]

I am not a cap expert at al so a few questions.
1. if Randle opts in can we use him and a NAW sign and trade for Durant?

If we make a trade for him I would only be willing to move Randle, NAW and maybe Dilly.

2. Can you sign and trade two players in the same trade? If Randle opts out can we sign and trade Randle and NAW?

Is Randle, NAW, Dilly and the Pistons 1st over paying for 1yrs o f Durant? Or could we give them the Utah 2nd pick in place of the 1st?

Dilly is really the only piece in our future so see it as a low risk.

[shrink]

And yes, players get older and decline, and there is no GUARANTEE. But why compare KD at 36 to Mike Conley? Why not compare him to LeBron at 36, who is a similar caliber player who has had a similar role? He’s 40, and his age 36-40 seasons have been All NBA. Lately we have seen some elite players be terrific far longer than expected.

In the NBA, there aren’t any guarantees about the future, yet you have made that your requirement to justify a KD trade, and that’s not a fair standard.

Really really poor comparison.
Because Lebron is built like a TANK and Durant is built like a BICYCLE.

A better comparison would be a Wizards era Jordan.
Jordan played his last year with the Bulls and won his last title at age 35.

Maybe you get one good year out of Durant if he can stay healthy, then you are looking at Wizards era Jordan.
And over-38 rules limit giving him a longer extension anyway.
So whatever way you are looking at it, trading for Durant is a short term gamble.

There is no good comparison, but LeBron is better one than Conley.

Conley has played PG, without the rigors or playing SF and PF, like LeBron and KD bashing with people underneath.

Moreover, Conley’s usage on any team is never what LeBron and Durant, and the physical demand that must take as a toll.

I don’t even think a 6-6 (fat) Jordan with 1990’s diet and trainers, is a good comparison with a 6-11 KD in 2025.

We are in new ground here people, and star players are starting to play longer and maintain their quality when they age. However, I bristled at the notion that Mike Conley provided “proof” that Kevin freakin’ Durant doesn’t have two good years left in him.

[shrink]

The only way this deal happens is if Connelly was willing to include either Jaden or Naz Reid.

It’s hard for me to pick which is more likely (or least painful!)

The case for Naz would be that Durant duplicates a lot of what he does. Naz is due a new contract. Connelly was going to let Naz walk two years ago, but Taylor stopped him.

The case for Jaden is that since he’s more expensive, it would allow Connelly to keep either Mike Conley or DDV, whichever he felt more attached to (if a deal didn’t require DDV’s value).

So, NAW(Dillingham)/Ant/Jaden/Durant/Gobert or DDV(Conley?)/Ant/Naz?/Durant/Gobert?


I also wanted to mention that a trade for KD at the deadline gave MIN an additional shot in the playoffs this year, plus the salary gap is smaller, with Durant making less than this summer, and Randle making more. Still, a rising second apron this summer will help. Also, a deal a few weeks ago wouldn’t require Randle to opt in, and players like Naz couldn’t stop a trade by refusing to S&T (which is an additional problem for second apron teams to receive a S&T!). A KD trade will be messier this summer.

Nobody wants to guess which Connelly was willing to trade: Naz or Jaden?