Trade Talk (Part 17): Early Offseason Planning

[frankenwolf]

According to Marc Stein, the Mavericks never actually offered Luka for Ant. They asked about Ant without discussing who they'd offer.

The Mavericks’ talks with Milwaukee and Minnesota, as described to me, were very brief in nature and intentionally broad and vague … meaning they did not specifically identify Dončić.

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/3506504/

How the heck did that conversation go??

"Are you interested in trading Ant for some real good compensation?"
"Who are you trading us?
"Oh, I'd rather not say right now."
"Nope"

[younggunsmn]

Off-season goals:

Remove Randle, Gobert, Conley Jr, NAW and DD.

Resign Naz

Targets: starting PG, starting and backup 5, backup 4.

PG- ????, Dillingham
SG- Edwards, Clark
SF- McDaniels, Shannon Jr
PF- Naz, ???
C- ???, ???

Between draft, trades and free agency we should be able to fill this out pretty effectively.... Assuming we do not have to attach draft picks to move players.

I agree with moving Randle and maybe NAW. Gobert still brings a top 10 defense and unless you are getting a package that will do the same, I don't move him. Mike will be here as a backup, honoring the promise TC made when he re-signed him. DD will do good things going forward and I would only trade him if it brought in a top flight PG, in the order of Fox or Haliburton. Where would Randle fit is the biggest question going forward. Will MN keep him and continue to pound a square peg in a round hole, or will we get vital pieces in a beneficial trade?

Randle is in an interesting contract spot. He can opt in to make more in the short term, but then he is playing with no injury insurance. Randle could opt out and try to sign and trade somewhere, but I don’t know who wants to pay him pay him 30+. I think the most likely outcome is what happened with Rudy. An opt out with a new deal for less money, but for a longer term. If you could have Randle 3 years 70, would you? If Randle becomes a 3 years 70 type contract does that mean he is willing to play off the bench and be a 6th man?

If I could have Randle 3 years 7 million I would pass.

[younggunsmn]

I will say, if the reports are true about Tim Connelly not trading Anthony Edwards for Luka Dončić, I find that to be a completely fireable offense.

Rudy Gobert for 5 1st rounders and KAT for overpaid garbage PF weren't already firable offenses?


The 4+ years of team control on Ant versus the 1+ year on Luka is what makes it a no.
If you get an extension commitment from Luka, of course you pull the trigger on that 100%, but it never got that far.

And something tells me Luka would be a LOT more disappointed to join the team he just punked in the playoffs, who also just traded away their 2nd best player for 25 cents on the dollar, than he was to join the Lakers.

[TaylorTag]

I believe this trade works CBA wise. Obviously would need to flesh out draft picks to satisfy Suns and Nets, but….

Suns in: Gobert
Suns out: Durant

Wolves in: Claxton, Jabari Smith Jr
Wolves out: Gobert

Rockets in: Durant
Rockets out: Van Fleet, Jabari Smith Jr

Nets in: Van Fleet
Nets out: Claxton

[ILC]

If Randle opts in this summer is there a pathway to re-signing both Naz and NAW without going over the 2nd apron?

[winforlose]

If Randle opts in this summer is there a pathway to re-signing both Naz and NAW without going over the 2nd apron?

If Randle opts in we probably trade him. But, Randle has had serious injuries the past two seasons. He is getting older. Randle also must ask who is gonna sign him for over 30 under the current CBA. There is a reason guys are taking less to avoid free agency. If the question is instead can we keep Randle and Naz, and NAW, then the answer is
Yes. Randle takes a significant discount because he realizes he is not worth what he thinks he is worth at 31 and in the era of the 2nd apron. If Randle takes 3 for 70.75 with 22 in year one, 23.75, and 25, (with the understanding he will come off the bench for Naz,) then that opens the door to use the 9 million savings to pay Naz.

To be clear, if Randle bets on himself and plays next season without a deal, then tears his Achilles or ACL, that costs more than 9 million. If he has to miss most of next season that could easily cost him 20. Plus his next deal is likely a prove it and without bird rights. Randle seems to like it here, and has a bond with Finch. Is it crazy to think Randle takes less to stay?

[ILC]

I meant if he opts in and then extends off of that number (declining or flat) can the Wolves stay under the 2nd apron while giving 25 to Naz and 15-ish to NAW?

[frankenwolf]

Randle seems to like it here, and has a bond with Finch. Is it crazy to think Randle takes less to stay?

Maybe, but my question is, does the FO think that they can get to the championship with the roster as currently constructed? If not, then who is the easiest one to trade to fix the perceived problem? I think that you and I agree on this - The Timberwolves need a PG to fill in between MC Jr and Dilly. I'm not sure that DDV can be that full time, although it seems to be working right now.

Will Randle stay if he thinks there is a chance to add a ring to his legacy? Probably, but will he stay behind Naz if he does stay?
I know, more questions than answers.

[wolves_89]

If Randle opts in this summer is there a pathway to re-signing both Naz and NAW without going over the 2nd apron?

If Randle picks up his player option, the Wolves would almost certainly have to move one of Julius or Rudy if they want to keep Naz/NAW and stay under the 2nd apron. I could see Connelly exploring the trade options this offseason for both Randle/Gobert and making a deal for either if the main piece coming back is young big who really fits long term.

[winforlose]

Randle seems to like it here, and has a bond with Finch. Is it crazy to think Randle takes less to stay?

Maybe, but my question is, does the FO think that they can get to the championship with the roster as currently constructed? If not, then who is the easiest one to trade to fix the perceived problem? I think that you and I agree on this - The Timberwolves need a PG to fill in between MC Jr and Dilly. I'm not sure that DDV can be that full time, although it seems to be working right now.

Will Randle stay if he thinks there is a chance to add a ring to his legacy? Probably, but will he stay behind Naz if he does stay?
I know, more questions than answers.

Let reshape this a bit.

1. In order for Julius Randle to want to stay and take less money the following two statements must be true.

1A. Randle and his agent have decided that the best decision for Randle’s career is to not play a year without a guaranteed contract behind it. This means if he gets hurt he has guaranteed money for next season and possibly beyond.

1B. Randle having tested the market could not find a team that would pay him at or above 30, and that no team would start him. If both of these are true, and 1A is true, then Randle has a lot of incentives to stay here. Between not moving his family, being comfortable here, and being part of the rise of Anthony Edwards and a possible dynasty in a small market franchise.

2. We have a high second, and likely a mid to late first. Between these picks and player development you will see the backup PG and the backup C start to fill in. This approach does not look to next year as much as the key window of 27/28 and beyond. Three years from now prime Ant, Jaden, Naz, NAW, and Shannon, plus whatever Dilly and Clark become, and who is around them.

3. The key to all of this is NAW wanting to stay, and our being able to pay him what it takes. If Randle’s savings het passed on to NAW, and we make small moves (trade Minott, dump Garza, maybe move Miller,) then the question is Mike. If Mike wants to be bought out to retire and then join the FO, that might free up additional money to work with. If not, the question is how much can we pay to NAW and a pick without going into the second apron. I believe NAW could make 9 and change, but I would need someone to check my math.

[NebWolvesFan]

If Randle opts in this summer is there a pathway to re-signing both Naz and NAW without going over the 2nd apron?

Minnesota could get 70 million under second apron by trading Conley and bringing nothing back. You can trade into a MLE now, so it's possible.

That means if Randle picks up option, the Wolves could sign Reid for 24 million (he would make the same as good friend Jaden) and NAW for around 15. They would have to trade DET pick in that scenario.

If Randle pulls a Gobert and opts out and signs for deal starting around 25 million, the Wolves could afford him, Naz, NAW and Det pick.

Now, the elephant in the room is Brooklyn. They have big money and NAZ is from the area. If they go big on NAZ, Minnesota will probably have to let NAW go and trade Conley to get enough to pay Naz $30 million plus a year.

If Randle opts out, the would have enough cash, but it would suck to lose him for nothing.

[winforlose]

If Randle opts in this summer is there a pathway to re-signing both Naz and NAW without going over the 2nd apron?

Minnesota could get 70 million under second apron by trading Conley and bringing nothing back. You can trade into a MLE now, so it's possible.

That means if Randle picks up option, the Wolves could sign Reid for 24 million (he would make the same as good friend Jaden) and NAW for around 15. They would have to trade DET pick in that scenario.

If Randle pulls a Gobert and opts out and signs for deal starting around 25 million, the Wolves could afford him, Naz, NAW and Det pick.

Now, the elephant in the room is Brooklyn. They have big money and NAZ is from the area. If they go big on NAZ, Minnesota will probably have to let NAW go and trade Conley to get enough to pay Naz $30 million plus a year.

If Randle opts out, the would have enough cash, but it would suck to lose him for nothing.

$143,645,048 is our payroll minus Garza (we wouldn’t have space for him,) without Randle, Naz, or NAW. Even without trading Mike there is a path to keeping all 3. If Randle costs less than 31 than any money you save goes directly to Naz or NAW. Let’s say worst case Randle extends at 26. That 5 million goes to NAW plus 2 more to be competitive. Now NAW goes from 4.3 to 11.3 or for easy math let’s call it 12. We’ll add 12 million and 26 million to $143,645,048. $181,645,048 with a 2nd apron of 207. $25,354,952, the difference between the 2nd apron and our payroll. If Naz takes 24 million, we move Minott for a 2nd, draft a 2nd and sign them to a Hinkie, now the only question is how to pay the first. That depends on where they are drafted and if there is a decent trade market for Miller. We have 15 going into next season without Garza under this model

Guaranteed contacts

1. Ant
2. Jaden
3. Rudy
4. Mike Conley
5. Donte
6. Dillingham
7. Shannon
8. Jaylen Clark
9.. Det first round pick

Non guaranteed contracts

10. Josh Minott
11. Leonard Miller
12. Utah second round draft pick

Free agents
13. Randle
14. Naz
15. NAW

[TimberKat]

If Randle opts in this summer is there a pathway to re-signing both Naz and NAW without going over the 2nd apron?

Minnesota could get 70 million under second apron by trading Conley and bringing nothing back. You can trade into a MLE now, so it's possible.

That means if Randle picks up option, the Wolves could sign Reid for 24 million (he would make the same as good friend Jaden) and NAW for around 15. They would have to trade DET pick in that scenario.

If Randle pulls a Gobert and opts out and signs for deal starting around 25 million, the Wolves could afford him, Naz, NAW and Det pick.

Now, the elephant in the room is Brooklyn. They have big money and NAZ is from the area. If they go big on NAZ, Minnesota will probably have to let NAW go and trade Conley to get enough to pay Naz $30 million plus a year.

If Randle opts out, the would have enough cash, but it would suck to lose him for nothing.

$143,645,048 is our payroll minus Garza (we wouldn’t have space for him,) without Randle, Naz, or NAW. Even without trading Mike there is a path to keeping all 3. If Randle costs less than 31 than any money you save goes directly to Naz or NAW. Let’s say worst case Randle extends at 26. That 5 million goes to NAW plus 2 more to be competitive. Now NAW goes from 4.3 to 11.3 or for easy math let’s call it 12. We’ll add 12 million and 26 million to $143,645,048. $181,645,048 with a 2nd apron of 207. $25,354,952, the difference between the 2nd apron and our payroll. If Naz takes 24 million, we move Minott for a 2nd, draft a 2nd and sign them to a Hinkie, now the only question is how to pay the first. That depends on where they are drafted and if there is a decent trade market for Miller. We have 15 going into next season without Garza under this model

Guaranteed contacts

1. Ant
2. Jaden
3. Rudy
4. Mike Conley
5. Donte
6. Dillingham
7. Shannon
8. Jaylen Clark
9.. Det first round pick

Non guaranteed contracts

10. Josh Minott
11. Leonard Miller
12. Utah second round draft pick

Free agents
13. Randle
14. Naz
15. NAW

I always feel like we can keep all 3. Potentially, we trade the DET 1st to lower the salary also. Since we already have 3 guys under development - Clark, TSJ, and Dilly.

[BlacJacMac]

Potentially, we trade the DET 1st to lower the salary also. Since we already have 3 guys under development - Clark, TSJ, and Dilly.

I would much rather use the Detroit pick on a big to develop.

[Mattya]

Randle, Conley, Utah 2nd for Richaun Holmes

Gobert, Dillingham, Detroit 1st, future swap for Durant

DDV(11.5)/
Ant(45.5)/NAW/Clark(2.1)
McDaniels(24.9)/TSJ(2.7)
Durant(54.7)/Miller(2.2)/Minott(2.2)
Naz/Holmes(13.3)/Garza(2.4)

That puts us at roughly 161.5 million with an estimated 207.8 million 2nd apron limit with 10 players. So 46.3 with some wiggle room on options on Minnot and Garza to bring back Naz and NAW(or a replacement) find a back up PG and fill in a 14th player.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

I'm pretty sure Mike will play next year and join the team after that. Another option is to ask NAZ and NAW to sign for less next year then increase their contract on year 2 and 3. We should trade Randle too. He play better recently but NAZ has to be a starter and we cannot pay a guy 30 Million to come from the bench. I think some decision will be make after we see what we are doing in the PO. If we don't perform well enough , let's say at least semi final or conf final, i see Connely trying to trade Gobert as well.

[shrink]

I think that you and I agree on this - The Timberwolves need a PG to fill in between MC Jr and Dilly. I'm not sure that DDV can be that full time, although it seems to be working right now.

I’ve thought this all season, but I am starting to question it.

I am hoping we see Ant pay more attention to improving his playmaking this summer. DDV will have a full off-season to adjust to the team and the role. And if Randle is still here, he seems to enjoy being a point forward.

Could the three of them provide enough playmaking, that we can wait for Dillingham?

[Klomp]

I think that you and I agree on this - The Timberwolves need a PG to fill in between MC Jr and Dilly. I'm not sure that DDV can be that full time, although it seems to be working right now.

I’ve thought this all season, but I am starting to question it.

I am hoping we see Ant pay more attention to improving his playmaking this summer. DDV will have a full off-season to adjust to the team and the role. And if Randle is still here, he seems to enjoy being a point forward.

Could the three of them provide enough playmaking, that we can wait for Dillingham?

I thought it was a really good observation by I think it was JimPete the other night. Donte has a decent knack for feeling the vibes of teammates. If he sees Randle has gone a while without a touch, he'll get him the ball. If Rudy is starting to pout, he'll get him the ball. At the end of the day, that's one of the biggest requirements for an NBA "point guard" - reading the room to figure out where to get the ball.

[TheZachAttack]

So, I posted a trade value thread for Rudy Gobert and it sounds like at least from other fans perspectives (which I think usually translates to real life) the perception of Rudy is that he is pretty valuable.

I think there's a really interesting option that involves trading Rudy for positives assets (one offer was RIsascher, Okongwu, and Niang) and positioning ourselves to create a max slot once Randle leaves either next year or the year after.

This is a very intriguing path for me and would 1000% validate the KAT trade if this happened.

[minimus]

So, I posted a trade value thread for Rudy Gobert and it sounds like at least from other fans perspectives (which I think usually translates to real life) the perception of Rudy is that he is pretty valuable.

I think there's a really interesting option that involves trading Rudy for positives assets (one offer was RIsascher, Okongwu, and Niang) and positioning ourselves to create a max slot once Randle leaves either next year or the year after.

This is a very intriguing path for me and would 1000% validate the KAT trade if this happened.

I am much more sceptical about Gobert value in the league. I doubt TC can flip Gobert for a backup bigman (such as Okongwu) and former 1st pick (such as Risascher), but if so it might open a lot ways to improve for MIN.