Round 2: GS Doves

[winforlose]

The stars have aligned!

Anthony "the legend killer" Edwards has his sights set on demolishing the vertically challenged Golden State Doves.

This series could get ugly! My main concern is the psychopath Draymond Green intentionally injures someone.

If the wolves don't beat themselves, this is a sweep.

Oh, and screw Jimmy.

I think we wins game 1, 2, and 5. I think we split 3 and 4. Wolves in 5.

Compare GSW to LAL for a minute.

Is Curry that much better than Luka? Especially with the thumb swelling?

Is Jimmy that much better than Lebron?

Is Green that much more impactful than Reaves? Reaves was a defensive liability, Green is an offensive liability.

I think they are gonna struggle to contain Jaden and Rudy. The resources required to guard Julius (Butler or Green,) will be costly for there overall defense. We should feast on the glass. Our biggest weakness is coaching (Kerr is more experienced and better than Finch,) but I don’t think that will be enough. We are bigger, deeper, and younger. Plus I think talent wise we are overall better.

Draymond Green is far less of a liability offensively than Austin Reaves is defensively. Still a great passer and screener (even if many are illegal screens).

Honestly, Stephen Curry is much less of a defensive liability than Luka Dončić is, and him being a more capable off-ball player does test the defense more than just stationing Jaden McDaniels on him.

I think that Golden State is kind of mediocre, but they matchup with us better than the Lakers did. Far less defensive liabilities on this team, and they have more offensively capable depth.

Let’s assume for the sake of argument this take is 100% correct. The Wolves still shot terribly from deep in games 3-5. The Wolves still have a size advantage for rebounding, and the Warriors still matchup poorly with us overall. If they designate Butler and Green for Ant and Randle, who stops Jaden from cooking GS in the mid range and at the rim? If Curry defends better than AR and Luka how does that impact the game in a way that LAL could not? I guess what I am saying is we played poorly by our standards in 4 of the 5 games and far from perfect in game 1, and we still won. Maybe the Warriors score a few more points than the Lakers, maybe they force a few more turnovers, and maybe they grab a few more boards. Even with all of that being true, the Wolves can still easily outperform themselves from series 1, just on the premise that they shot worse, and executed worse in that series than in the regular season.

If I am wrong, what am I missing?

[guest81]

If the Wolves bring their B level game they should win. Like it has been the case the biggest obstacle for the Wolves is themselves. If they come out rusty and let GS take game 1 it could be a long series.

[winforlose]

If the Wolves want any chance of taking OKC in the next round they have to make quick work of the Warriors here. They cannot go against the best team gassed like they were last year. They have the potential to do it, but I'm worried about the mental game and off ball focus by the Wolves.

They have to ignore Draymond antics, Edwards especially and Randle cannot be drawn into a hero ball type situation against Green, he's a much better defender than anything Lakers had for him.

And then in close games you know Steph will get loose in the corner after an Oreb by Looney or something and hit a big shot. Randle, Naz and Ant especially have to be very focused and not lose their men off ball because they're prone to do so.

Initial prediction is Wolves in 5, but they have to win both at home to open the series. If GSW split I think it goes 7. Either way I have the Wolves, but I think it's going to be much closer than the Lakers series.

It could be closer, but you left out some details. First, the Wolves last played on 4/30, the Warriors played 2 extra playoff games and had to fly back and forth across the country the additional two times to play games 6 and 7. The Warriors got to celebrate their game 7 win with a flight from Houston to Minnesota after midnight local. 5 full days of rest and practice vs 1 day of rest and 1 day to prepare for someone other than Houston. That is a massive game 1 advantage.

Another fun fact, the Wolves held the Lakers under 100 in 3 of 5 games. The Lakers scored 95, 94, 103, 113, 96 in 5 games. I will grant you that the Warriors are a better defensive team than LAL, despite having a major size disadvantage (even more pronounced than the Lakers size disadvantage in most cases.) But, the Warriors lack the 3rd and 4th option scoring that Reaves and Rui brought for the Lakers. Even if we stipulate that Curry is better than Luka (even though Curry in many ways is easier to guard 1 on 1 because Luka is bigger and stronger,) is Butler that much better than LeBron offensively to tip the scales?

National media is talking about how GSW loves to run and the pace will favor them. I think the numbers clearly showed that we were the faster team against LAL and were dominate when we got out in transition. I am not sure pace is the advantage GSW or the media think it is. We also use the big bodies to wear down the conditioning on the smaller and often older Lakers (now Warriors.) Will Butler and Green hold up significantly better in a high pace, high energy, low rest series? Curry may be able when all else is equal, but his thumb hurts, this series is short rest through 5, and they played a lot more basketball than the much younger Wolves. I don’t think pace favors GSW either.

The only thing that favors GSW is coaching. Kerr coached Ant this summer, and Kerr has way more big game experience than Finch. That said, the talent disparity 3-8 is so great that even a coaching advantage shouldn’t affect it. So where does that leave GSW? The simple answer is at a disadvantage, with the Wolves in great shape to advance. Assuming we can stay out of our own way long enough to take advantage of their advantages.

[winforlose]

Fun food for thought. The Warriors tip off was scheduled for 7:30, the game ended a little after 10PM central. If we account for showering, changing, media, fans, ect… let’s assume the Warriors got to the airport around Midnight. That flight is between 170 and 180 minutes. Even if they have a hotel within 5 minutes of the airport (I have no idea where they stay, but I imagine it is closer to TC and therefore further away,) by the time they arrive, check in, and get ready for bed, they probably went to sleep around 3 or 4 AM (assuming they traveled last night to maximize time in Minnesota for game prep.) Our tip off time is 8:30 PM tomorrow night. From 4AM to 8:30 PM the next day is only 40 hours and 30 minutes. Just food for thought.

Something else kinda interesting. The Warriors vs Rockets series began on 4/20/25 and ended on 5/4/25. That is essentially 1 game every other day for GSW. Our series plays 5 games on 1 days rest with 5/6, 5/8, 5/10, 5/12 and 5/14. That means that if we go to game 5 that will be 12 games in 25 days.

[shrink]

Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves predictions

ESPN
Omar Raja: Timberwolves in 7
Jamal Collier: Timberwolves in 6
Jorge Sedano: Timberwolves in 7
Chris Herring: Timberwolves in 7
Dave McMenamin: Timberwolves in 7
Kevin Pelton: Timberwolves in 7
Jeremy Woo: Timberwolves in 7
Ohm Youngmisuk: Timberwolves in 7
Andre Snellings: Timberwolves in 6
Jerry Bembry: Timberwolves in 6
Ramona Shelburne: Warriors in 6

Final tally:
Minnesota 10, Golden State 1

.. but we know how good ESPN is at predicting!

[winforlose]

Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves predictions

ESPN
Omar Raja: Timberwolves in 7
Jamal Collier: Timberwolves in 6
Jorge Sedano: Timberwolves in 7
Chris Herring: Timberwolves in 7
Dave McMenamin: Timberwolves in 7
Kevin Pelton: Timberwolves in 7
Jeremy Woo: Timberwolves in 7
Ohm Youngmisuk: Timberwolves in 7
Andre Snellings: Timberwolves in 6
Jerry Bembry: Timberwolves in 6
Ramona Shelburne: Warriors in 6

Final tally:
Minnesota 10, Golden State 1

.. but we know how good ESPN is at predicting!

What matters is the Wolves playing like Underdogs. Finch needs to pump up the Curry/Dray/Butler pelts. Ant and crew are playing to kill the legends and avenge all the smack talk that Green put Rudy through last year. If they still humble and hungry, the Wolves will devour some old Warriors. If the Wolves get lazy and complacent, well then some young pups might need to learn some new tricks.

[TimberKat]

Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves predictions

ESPN
Omar Raja: Timberwolves in 7
Jamal Collier: Timberwolves in 6
Jorge Sedano: Timberwolves in 7
Chris Herring: Timberwolves in 7
Dave McMenamin: Timberwolves in 7
Kevin Pelton: Timberwolves in 7
Jeremy Woo: Timberwolves in 7
Ohm Youngmisuk: Timberwolves in 7
Andre Snellings: Timberwolves in 6
Jerry Bembry: Timberwolves in 6
Ramona Shelburne: Warriors in 6

Final tally:
Minnesota 10, Golden State 1

.. but we know how good ESPN is at predicting!

What matters is the Wolves playing like Underdogs. Finch needs to pump up the Curry/Dray/Butler pelts. Ant and crew are playing to kill the legends and avenge all the smack talk that Green put Rudy through last year. If they still humble and hungry, the Wolves will devour some old Warriors. If the Wolves get lazy and complacent, well then some young pups might need to learn some new tricks.

I am now start to worry, the last time we were favorite was the Dallas series Although we are a little older, wiser, and well rested. There is certainly pressure to win the first game like the Dallas series.

[Biff Cooper]

For GS to compete, they are going to need to play small and the only way they can play small is if our bigs and the refs allow Green (and Butler and Podziemski) to utilize their strength and guile and put hands all over our guys. Green is a beast to try and post up. Need to stay active and mobile and force him to move and guard us in action where we can take advantage of height and athleticism advantages.

[Guest84]

How many games does Jimmy play? He’s been good at avoiding the wolves. Can’t hide anymore right???

[Guest84]

Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves predictions

ESPN
Omar Raja: Timberwolves in 7
Jamal Collier: Timberwolves in 6
Jorge Sedano: Timberwolves in 7
Chris Herring: Timberwolves in 7
Dave McMenamin: Timberwolves in 7
Kevin Pelton: Timberwolves in 7
Jeremy Woo: Timberwolves in 7
Ohm Youngmisuk: Timberwolves in 7
Andre Snellings: Timberwolves in 6
Jerry Bembry: Timberwolves in 6
Ramona Shelburne: Warriors in 6

Final tally:
Minnesota 10, Golden State 1

.. but we know how good ESPN is at predicting!

They want GS to win and are trying jinx it since the wolves made them look like fools if this is true.

[Klomp]

Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves predictions

ESPN
Omar Raja: Timberwolves in 7
Jamal Collier: Timberwolves in 6
Jorge Sedano: Timberwolves in 7
Chris Herring: Timberwolves in 7
Dave McMenamin: Timberwolves in 7
Kevin Pelton: Timberwolves in 7
Jeremy Woo: Timberwolves in 7
Ohm Youngmisuk: Timberwolves in 7
Andre Snellings: Timberwolves in 6
Jerry Bembry: Timberwolves in 6
Ramona Shelburne: Warriors in 6

Final tally:
Minnesota 10, Golden State 1

.. but we know how good ESPN is at predicting!

We can blame Ant for that!

[Guest84]

Forgot to mention, I think rest can be a bit overrated in the playoffs. How many times have we seen the rested team lose due to being rusty?

I think GS poses a lot of unique challenges that we know all too well. I think the wolves need to go similar to what they did against LA and shut off the water to the others.

Curry and Butler at most will get you 60-70 points on a good night?? Minimize the rest and you should win.

Force Green to score as oppose to facilitate?? He’s a key piece in the offensive cog even though he doesn’t score and we’re don’t want a game 7 performance from Buddy or others.

[winforlose]

Forgot to mention, I think rest can be a bit overrated in the playoffs. How many times have we seen the rested team lose due to being rusty?

I think GS poses a lot of unique challenges that we know all too well. I think the wolves need to go similar to what they did against LA and shut off the water to the others.

Curry and Butler at most will get you 60-70 points on a good night?? Minimize the rest and you should win.

Force Green to score as oppose to facilitate?? He’s a key piece in the offensive cog even though he doesn’t score and we’re don’t want a game 7 performance from Buddy or others.

This is slightly misapplied because Windy was using it to talk about Denver and OKC (who had 8 days of rest,) but historically that accounted for 20 points in game 1. Also remember the stars for GSW are 37, 35, and 35, and ours are 23, 31, and either 24, 25, and Rudy at 32. The lack of rest is absolutely a factor for GSW.

[Guest84]

Forgot to mention, I think rest can be a bit overrated in the playoffs. How many times have we seen the rested team lose due to being rusty?

I think GS poses a lot of unique challenges that we know all too well. I think the wolves need to go similar to what they did against LA and shut off the water to the others.

Curry and Butler at most will get you 60-70 points on a good night?? Minimize the rest and you should win.

Force Green to score as oppose to facilitate?? He’s a key piece in the offensive cog even though he doesn’t score and we’re don’t want a game 7 performance from Buddy or others.

This is slightly misapplied because Windy was using it to talk about Denver and OKC (who had 8 days of rest,) but historically that accounted for 20 points in game 1. Also remember the stars for GSW are 37, 37, and 35, and ours are 23, 31, and either 24, 25, and Rudy at 32. The lack of rest is absolutely a factor for GSW.

Of course it can be a factor but I'm speaking from a general perspective. However, what/how exactly do ppl think the lack of rest of will play a factor? Are ppl referring to the series as a whole? The first game?

I still think the rest argument is a bit overrated. If GS wins the series, will the rest thing even be considered in the end? While they're older, Curry and Butler are some of the best conditioned athletes in the league still. Their experience helps them manage that better as well throughout the course of a game/series.

But if it is as big a factor as ppl say, what would be the best way for the wolves to take advantage of it?

[winforlose]

Forgot to mention, I think rest can be a bit overrated in the playoffs. How many times have we seen the rested team lose due to being rusty?

I think GS poses a lot of unique challenges that we know all too well. I think the wolves need to go similar to what they did against LA and shut off the water to the others.

Curry and Butler at most will get you 60-70 points on a good night?? Minimize the rest and you should win.

Force Green to score as oppose to facilitate?? He’s a key piece in the offensive cog even though he doesn’t score and we’re don’t want a game 7 performance from Buddy or others.

This is slightly misapplied because Windy was using it to talk about Denver and OKC (who had 8 days of rest,) but historically that accounted for 20 points in game 1. Also remember the stars for GSW are 37, 37, and 35, and ours are 23, 31, and either 24, 25, and Rudy at 32. The lack of rest is absolutely a factor for GSW.

Of course it can be a factor but I speaking from a general perspective. However, what/how exactly do ppl think the lack of rest of will play a factor? Are ppl referring to the series as a whole? The first game?

I still think the rest argument is a bit overrated. If GS wins the series, will the rest thing even be considered in the end? While they're older, Curry and Butler are some of the best conditioned athletes in the league still. Their experience helps them manage that better as well throughout the course of a game/series.

But if it is as big a factor as ppl say, what would be the best way for the wolves to take advantage of it?

1. When age becomes a factor, conditioning doesn’t always take care of it. Bumps and bang ups don’t heal as quickly. Being physically leaned on and worn down doesn’t always get back to full strength as quickly. I think less rest clearly favors the Wolves over the 37 year old Curry and 35 year old Green and Butler. Play physically with them and make them expend energy dealing with that. It wore down Luka and Lebron in 4th quarters, and it will wear on all 3 of the Warriors mentioned above.

2. It can play a factor in tired legs shooting, being less able to compete for 50/50 balls, needing to rest on defense more. Fouling more to slow the game and recover on free throws, being less able to push pace and run in transition. It can be less physical defense and boxing out. It can and does play a role. For context look at Laker performances in the 4th quarter and compare those to 1st and 2nd quarters.

3. The Wolves have more depth, and will exploit it. We can easily go 8 or 9 deep, the Warriors in game 7 really used 2 guys for 45 minutes, 2 guys for 40, and 1 guy for 36. Our depth is much more productive than theirs, and bench scoring is a key factor. We can exploit this by setting a lot of screens, moving without the ball of offense, minimizing fouls on defense (don’t let them stand around recovering on free throws, posting them up, and playing physically.

[cmoss84]

This feels like a Rudy/Draymond fight ready to happen. I'd be fine with it-it would hurt them much more than us.
If we win game 1, we sweep. If we lose game 1, we win in 6.
GS starting 5 are playing huge minutes, just like LAL. Will will wear them out...just a matter of how soon.
To me, the biggest factors are the 3pt shooting of Hield and Podz. Should be interesting how we match up...but I would do something like this:
Ant-Hield
Jaden-Butler
DD/NAW/Clark/Mike/TSJ on Curry/Podz (keep fresh legs on them)
Rudy/Randle/NAZ-Green
I really want us to use all these guys to keep minutes down and be more effective on defense/wear them out. Their bench sucks too.

[Klomp]

I still think the rest argument is a bit overrated. If GS wins the series, will the rest thing even be considered in the end? While they're older, Curry and Butler are some of the best conditioned athletes in the league still. Their experience helps them manage that better as well throughout the course of a game/series.

But if it is as big a factor as ppl say, what would be the best way for the wolves to take advantage of it?

Just keep playing Timberwolves basketball. They will wear down.

Worth noting, the Warriors haven't been this deep in the playoffs for two seasons. And when you look at that group, there's been quite a bit of turnover. Only 6 guys were in both rotations. Putting a lot of faith in young guys like Moody Podziemski and possibly Kuminga.

Speaking of Kuminga, it seems like Kerr has been giving him the Josh Minott treatment lately. One mistake and you're done.

[winforlose]

This feels like a Rudy/Draymond fight ready to happen. I'd be fine with it-it would hurt them much more than us.
If we win game 1, we sweep. If we lose game 1, we win in 6.
GS starting 5 are playing huge minutes, just like LAL. Will will wear them out...just a matter of how soon.
To me, the biggest factors are the 3pt shooting of Hield and Podz. Should be interesting how we match up...but I would do something like this:
Ant-Hield
Jaden-Butler
DD/Clark/Mike/TSJ on Curry/Podz (keep fresh legs on them)
Rudy/Randle-Green
I really want us to use all these guys to keep minutes down and be more effective on defense/wear them out. Their bench sucks too.

I agree about the defensive matchups. I was telling my brother last night, Curry should be defended by anyone but Jaden and Ant because they are more valuable elsewhere. If Jaden can contain Bulter, and Ant contains scorer #3 we win this series easily. Same thing with Luka and Joker, take the hit you know is coming, but don’t let anyone else get going and don’t let Curry create for others.

[Klomp]

It's wild to me that the narrative around our team is that we're young and inexperienced. I get why the narrative exists, but we have a lot of playoff experience under our belts for four straight years now. We're not caught up to the Golden State vets, but we're far more experienced than the back half of their rotation.

[KGdaBom]

Forgot to mention, I think rest can be a bit overrated in the playoffs. How many times have we seen the rested team lose due to being rusty?

I think GS poses a lot of unique challenges that we know all too well. I think the wolves need to go similar to what they did against LA and shut off the water to the others.

Curry and Butler at most will get you 60-70 points on a good night?? Minimize the rest and you should win.

Force Green to score as oppose to facilitate?? He’s a key piece in the offensive cog even though he doesn’t score and we’re don’t want a game 7 performance from Buddy or others.

I think in this case rest isn't being overrated. Older players like Curry, Dray and Butler need more recovery time. Also Ant is pretty banged up. Him getting a good amount of time to recover is also big for us.