Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[Loaf_of_bread]

Ok, tell me I'm wrong..

Randle isn't a true expiring contract (player option). Unless he does a complete 180, and starts playing decent, he isn't even worth his 31 million he gets next year if he opts in, which then, he just should do so.

We are kind of screwed. Guy needs to start playing at an All-Star level before any of these proposed trades make any sense. Draft picks coming our way for a guy with zero value, I guess I'm lost.

[winforlose]

Ok, tell me I'm wrong..

Randle isn't a true expiring contract (player option). Unless he does a complete 180, and starts playing decent, he isn't even worth his 31 million he gets next year if he opts in, which then, he just should do so.

We are kind of screwed. Guy needs to start playing at an All-Star level before any of these proposed trades make any sense. Draft picks coming our way for a guy with zero value, I guess I'm lost.

1. 30-31 million is a value deal for someone with his scoring. Before Brunson arrived in NYK, Randle took them the to the ECF. His defense is an issue, but his shooting is still efficient, his assisting is still strong, and his rebounding is still decent. Randle has value on the trade market.

2. 31 million as an expiring next year also has value. 31 million expiring can help a team take back bad contracts for picks, or be a cog in a 3 team deal which lands a nice asset or 2. Randle is not likely to get more next year, so we must assume he opts in (the cap going up with tv money will more than make up the difference in his next deal.)

3. Just because Randle is a bad fit here doesn’t mean other teams will see him that way. The question is what is his true value. I think it is well above Zach Lavine or BI, and Randle might be one of the biggest trade assets this trade season. We just need to figure out the right team to take him and the right return for him.

[Loaf_of_bread]

Ok, tell me I'm wrong..

Randle isn't a true expiring contract (player option). Unless he does a complete 180, and starts playing decent, he isn't even worth his 31 million he gets next year if he opts in, which then, he just should do so.

We are kind of screwed. Guy needs to start playing at an All-Star level before any of these proposed trades make any sense. Draft picks coming our way for a guy with zero value, I guess I'm lost.

1. 30-31 million is a value deal for someone with his scoring. Before Brunson arrived in NYK, Randle took them the to the ECF. His defense is an issue, but his shooting is still efficient, his assisting is still strong, and his rebounding is still decent. Randle has value on the trade market.

2. 31 million as an expiring next year also has value. 31 million expiring can help a team take back bad contracts for picks, or be a cog in a 3 team deal which lands a nice asset or 2. Randle is not likely to get more next year, so we must assume he opts in (the cap going up with tv money will more than make up the difference in his next deal.)

3. Just because Randle is a bad fit here doesn’t mean other teams will see him that way. The question is what is his true value. I think it is well above Zach Lavine or BI, and Randle might be one of the biggest trade assets this trade season. We just need to figure out the right team to take him and the right return for him.

Ok, so let me get this straight..

No questions asked, julius will decline the player option? You are being somewhat contradictory..

Not an expiring contract.. and putting value on him as an expiring next year, comeon now.

[Danimals]

I keep going back to the Chicago Bulls as what I believe to be a realistic trade partner.
-They are safely in play-in contention.
-Their ownership tends to prefer getting to the playoffs over tanking.
-Not much for classic PFs on the roster.
-Not many classic facilitators on the roster, and one of the two is just coming back from a two-year injury.
-Team doesn't really emphasize defense.
-Multiple options that could be combined for a viable trade offer.
-POBO Karnisovas has a longstanding previous relationship with Tim Connelly, as both worked in Denver for many years. Prior relationships never hurt in getting deals done. Connelly's brother is also an assistant GM with the Bulls.

It’s as good a partner as any. The question is what/who for what/who?

Randle for Ball, Smith, and Portlands protected pick

[winforlose]

Ok, tell me I'm wrong..

Randle isn't a true expiring contract (player option). Unless he does a complete 180, and starts playing decent, he isn't even worth his 31 million he gets next year if he opts in, which then, he just should do so.

We are kind of screwed. Guy needs to start playing at an All-Star level before any of these proposed trades make any sense. Draft picks coming our way for a guy with zero value, I guess I'm lost.

1. 30-31 million is a value deal for someone with his scoring. Before Brunson arrived in NYK, Randle took them the to the ECF. His defense is an issue, but his shooting is still efficient, his assisting is still strong, and his rebounding is still decent. Randle has value on the trade market.

2. 31 million as an expiring next year also has value. 31 million expiring can help a team take back bad contracts for picks, or be a cog in a 3 team deal which lands a nice asset or 2. Randle is not likely to get more next year, so we must assume he opts in (the cap going up with tv money will more than make up the difference in his next deal.)

3. Just because Randle is a bad fit here doesn’t mean other teams will see him that way. The question is what is his true value. I think it is well above Zach Lavine or BI, and Randle might be one of the biggest trade assets this trade season. We just need to figure out the right team to take him and the right return for him.

Ok, so let me get this straight..

No questions asked, julius will decline the player option? You are being somewhat contradictory..

Not an expiring contract.. and putting value on him as an expiring next year, comeon now.

To clarify, no one will pay him more than 31 next year. He will accept the player option. Thus, he is a value deal this year and an expiring next year. I apologize if that wasn’t clear above. BI has the same issue where he wants to be paid better than he deserves, but under the new CBA teams are being stingy. Especially if we don’t sign and trade him and he has to sign for more than 31 without bird rights.

[winforlose]

I keep going back to the Chicago Bulls as what I believe to be a realistic trade partner.
-They are safely in play-in contention.
-Their ownership tends to prefer getting to the playoffs over tanking.
-Not much for classic PFs on the roster.
-Not many classic facilitators on the roster, and one of the two is just coming back from a two-year injury.
-Team doesn't really emphasize defense.
-Multiple options that could be combined for a viable trade offer.
-POBO Karnisovas has a longstanding previous relationship with Tim Connelly, as both worked in Denver for many years. Prior relationships never hurt in getting deals done. Connelly's brother is also an assistant GM with the Bulls.

It’s as good a partner as any. The question is what/who for what/who?

Randle for Ball, Smith, and Portlands protected pick

On a scale of I hate it to the very notion of this makes me physically ill, you have actually broken the scale. Any deal with the Bulls starts with Coby White. White is the perfect pair with Ant, is on a value deal, and is the right age for the timeline. As for Ball, if his name isn’t Lamelo we need to stay the **** away, (and we aren’t getting Lamelo.) Lonzo is not someone who could ever be trusted in a deep playoff run, and you don’t trade Randle to get worse. Smith is decent, but I would rather Add Vuc for C depth and move Dozier to a 3rd team in the deal so we don’t need to cut anyone. We could also add Jingles to a 3rd team, use the roster spot to add a PF who made less than 12 before being waiver or bought out.

Depth chart

PG: Coby White, Mike, Dilly
SG: Ant, DDV, NAW
SF: Jaden, NAW, TSJ
PF: Naz, Minott, free agent with Ingles spot
C: Rudy, Vuc, Garza

[Loaf_of_bread]

1. 30-31 million is a value deal for someone with his scoring. Before Brunson arrived in NYK, Randle took them the to the ECF. His defense is an issue, but his shooting is still efficient, his assisting is still strong, and his rebounding is still decent. Randle has value on the trade market.

2. 31 million as an expiring next year also has value. 31 million expiring can help a team take back bad contracts for picks, or be a cog in a 3 team deal which lands a nice asset or 2. Randle is not likely to get more next year, so we must assume he opts in (the cap going up with tv money will more than make up the difference in his next deal.)

3. Just because Randle is a bad fit here doesn’t mean other teams will see him that way. The question is what is his true value. I think it is well above Zach Lavine or BI, and Randle might be one of the biggest trade assets this trade season. We just need to figure out the right team to take him and the right return for him.

Ok, so let me get this straight..

No questions asked, julius will decline the player option? You are being somewhat contradictory..

Not an expiring contract.. and putting value on him as an expiring next year, comeon now.

To clarify, no one will pay him more than 31 next year. He will accept the player option. Thus, he is a value deal this year and an expiring next year. I apologize if that wasn’t clear above. BI has the same issue where he wants to be paid better than he deserves, but under the new CBA teams are being stingy. Especially if we don’t sign and trade him and he has to sign for more than 31 without bird rights.

What you meant to say is that he is a "value deal" next year, and an expiring at the deadline next year. A toxic player no matter the so called production is not a "value".

[winforlose]

Ok, so let me get this straight..

No questions asked, julius will decline the player option? You are being somewhat contradictory..

Not an expiring contract.. and putting value on him as an expiring next year, comeon now.

To clarify, no one will pay him more than 31 next year. He will accept the player option. Thus, he is a value deal this year and an expiring next year. I apologize if that wasn’t clear above. BI has the same issue where he wants to be paid better than he deserves, but under the new CBA teams are being stingy. Especially if we don’t sign and trade him and he has to sign for more than 31 without bird rights.

What you meant to say is that he is a "value deal" next year, and an expiring at the deadline next year. A toxic player no matter the so called production is not a "value".

I explicitly said he would opt in next year and become an expiring. I will apologize the first time, but not the second. Read the post more carefully. As for the value this year, find someone else with his track record, and his numbers, for his current money. There are not many and not many are on the trade block. You can call him toxic, but NYK didn’t seem to think so. He didn’t fit in here, he might somewhere else. Value is in the eye of the beholder, and yes his production for his money is valuable in trade.

[Loaf_of_bread]

To clarify, no one will pay him more than 31 next year. He will accept the player option. Thus, he is a value deal this year and an expiring next year. I apologize if that wasn’t clear above. BI has the same issue where he wants to be paid better than he deserves, but under the new CBA teams are being stingy. Especially if we don’t sign and trade him and he has to sign for more than 31 without bird rights.

What you meant to say is that he is a "value deal" next year, and an expiring at the deadline next year. A toxic player no matter the so called production is not a "value".

I explicitly said he would opt in next year and become an expiring. I will apologize the first time, but not the second. Read the post more carefully. As for the value this year, find someone else with his track record, and his numbers, for his current money. There are not many and not many are on the trade block. You can call him toxic, but NYK didn’t seem to think so. He didn’t fit in here, he might somewhere else. Value is in the eye of the beholder, and yes his production for his money is valuable in trade.

Completely agree, we have to fool an NBA gm.

[winforlose]

What you meant to say is that he is a "value deal" next year, and an expiring at the deadline next year. A toxic player no matter the so called production is not a "value".

I explicitly said he would opt in next year and become an expiring. I will apologize the first time, but not the second. Read the post more carefully. As for the value this year, find someone else with his track record, and his numbers, for his current money. There are not many and not many are on the trade block. You can call him toxic, but NYK didn’t seem to think so. He didn’t fit in here, he might somewhere else. Value is in the eye of the beholder, and yes his production for his money is valuable in trade.

Completely agree, we have to fool an NBA gm.

By that logic ours got fooled. Plus Ben Simmons returned James Harden, so strange things can happen.

[Danimals]

It’s as good a partner as any. The question is what/who for what/who?

Randle for Ball, Smith, and Portlands protected pick

On a scale of I hate it to the very notion of this makes me physically ill, you have actually broken the scale. Any deal with the Bulls starts with Coby White. White is the perfect pair with Ant, is on a value deal, and is the right age for the timeline. As for Ball, if his name isn’t Lamelo we need to stay the **** away, (and we aren’t getting Lamelo.) Lonzo is not someone who could ever be trusted in a deep playoff run, and you don’t trade Randle to get worse. Smith is decent, but I would rather Add Vuc for C depth and move Dozier to a 3rd team in the deal so we don’t need to cut anyone. We could also add Jingles to a 3rd team, use the roster spot to add a PF who made less than 12 before being waiver or bought out.

Depth chart

PG: Coby White, Mike, Dilly
SG: Ant, DDV, NAW
SF: Jaden, NAW, TSJ
PF: Naz, Minott, free agent with Ingles spot
C: Rudy, Vuc, Garza

I’d love to get White and Smith from Chicago. Ball would just be expiring cap relief. And no interest in Vuc’s money next year. Maybe Randle and the Detroit pick for White and Smith, then Ball to a third team.

[Klomp]

Randle for Ball, Smith, and Portlands protected pick

On a scale of I hate it to the very notion of this makes me physically ill, you have actually broken the scale. Any deal with the Bulls starts with Coby White. White is the perfect pair with Ant, is on a value deal, and is the right age for the timeline. As for Ball, if his name isn’t Lamelo we need to stay the **** away, (and we aren’t getting Lamelo.) Lonzo is not someone who could ever be trusted in a deep playoff run, and you don’t trade Randle to get worse. Smith is decent, but I would rather Add Vuc for C depth and move Dozier to a 3rd team in the deal so we don’t need to cut anyone. We could also add Jingles to a 3rd team, use the roster spot to add a PF who made less than 12 before being waiver or bought out.

Depth chart

PG: Coby White, Mike, Dilly
SG: Ant, DDV, NAW
SF: Jaden, NAW, TSJ
PF: Naz, Minott, free agent with Ingles spot
C: Rudy, Vuc, Garza

I’d love to get White and Smith from Chicago. Ball would just be expiring cap relief. And no interest in Vuc’s money next year. Maybe Randle and the Detroit pick for White and Smith, then Ball to a third team.

White or Williams would be ideal returns, but I don't know how likely that is. And then you still need to create a package around either of them, which could be difficult and might require a third team.

Trading Randle for Ball and Smith wouldn't be exciting, but I think that was what we all thought about the Russell for Conley trade at the time as well. Sometimes, teams know more than us on the internet. Sometimes, they see qualities about a player that we miss because we aren't in the gyms every day.

[Domejandro]

A silly scenario that won't happen is "What if Minnesota really wanted to cut costs?" Not going to actually write out all of the pick value, but just a thought experiment where all teams stay under the Luxury-Tax.

________________

ATL: Paul Reed
OUT: Cody Zeller and David Roddy

Why for Atlanta? They are functionally a filler team to give context on the format.
________________

CHA: Tim Hardway Jr. and Anthony Gill
OUT: Cody Martin and Cody Zeller.

Why for Charlotte? Clear a small amount of salary next season.
________________

DET: Julius Randle and Taj Gibson
OUT: Tim Hardaway Jr., Paul Reed, and draft compensation

Why for Detroit? Make a playoff push.
________________

MIN: David Roddy and draft compensation (reduce protection on this year's first?)
OUT: Julius Randle

Why for Minnesota? Duck under the Luxury Tax and get draft compensation.
________________

WAS: Cody Martin, Cody Zeller, and draft compensation
OUT: Anthony Gill

Why for Washington? Get draft compensation in exchange for their TPE.
________________

Personally, I probably wouldn't do it (depending on the amount of pick compensation, of course), but it would certainly solve all of Minnesota's financial woes, moving forwards.

[Klomp]

A silly scenario that won't happen is "What if Minnesota really wanted to cut costs?" Not going to actually write out all of the pick value, but just a thought experiment where all teams stay under the Luxury-Tax.

I definitely had the thought for a moment, but it ended there because my brain was already hurting from it

[winforlose]

A silly scenario that won't happen is "What if Minnesota really wanted to cut costs?" Not going to actually write out all of the pick value, but just a thought experiment where all teams stay under the Luxury-Tax.

________________

ATL: Paul Reed
OUT: Cody Zeller and David Roddy

Why for Atlanta? They are functionally a filler team to give context on the format.
________________

CHA: Tim Hardway Jr. and Anthony Gill
OUT: Cody Martin and Cody Zeller.

Why for Charlotte? Clear a small amount of salary next season.
________________

DET: Julius Randle and Taj Gibson
OUT: Tim Hardaway Jr., Paul Reed, and draft compensation

Why for Detroit? Make a playoff push.
________________

MIN: David Roddy and draft compensation (reduce protection on this year's first?)
OUT: Julius Randle

Why for Minnesota? Duck under the Luxury Tax and get draft compensation.
________________

WAS: Cody Martin, Cody Zeller, and draft compensation
OUT: Anthony Gill

Why for Washington? Get draft compensation in exchange for their TPE.
________________

Personally, I probably wouldn't do it (depending on the amount of pick compensation, of course), but it would certainly solve all of Minnesota's financial woes, moving forwards.

Putting aside the issue of the trade itself and talking about why you suggested it, I do see an interesting point. So we were not in the tax last year. We wouldn’t be this year, and TV money is coming in next year. That means we would have time to coast for a year or two and then make a run in Ant’s prime. This gives Dilly, TSJ, and Miller time to develop as well. That said, there are downsides. Rudy gets old and we aren’t likely to replace him at the level of defensive production. Mike is retired and other than Dilly we have no PGs to develop. We don’t own our pick so drafting is gonna be tricky. Adding salary is harder under the new CBA. We go from a championship or bust mindset to a drifter mindset which can hurt franchises. Finally, I am not sure we can attract the free agents we need to retool for 2-3 years from now. I wouldn’t go down this road, but I could see why people would.

[minimus]

There was some skepticism coming into the season about whether Lonzo Ball would be healthy enough to play – and what sort of impact he’d have – for the Bulls after being sidelined due to knee issues for two-and-a-half years. Ball has only appeared in eight of 25 games, but his multi-week absence was the result of a new wrist injury rather than his surgically repaired knee, which the Bulls guard says has held up just fine so far, as Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times relays.

“To be honest, I’m a lot better than I thought I was going to be, early on for sure,” Ball said, referring to both his knee and his defense. “There’s still some mishaps, definitely on the ball sometimes. But for the most part I feel comfortable out there. I feel like I haven’t really missed a beat, so I just try and give good minutes when I’m out there.”

As Cowley writes, the positive effect that Ball has on Chicago’s lineup has been apparent even in his limited playing time. The club has a +6.5 net rating in his 134 minutes on the court; the team’s net rating is just -5.4 in the 1,066 minutes he hasn’t played. That’s easily the biggest on/off-court disparity among Bulls players who have logged at least 100 minutes.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2024/12/eastern-notes-ball-mobley-heat-k-johnson.html

Can Lonzo Ball be our version of Shaun Livingston in championship GSW? Would be a fantastic story. But. Such trade would definitely put all our cards on gamble that Dilly becomes a high level scorer in NBA. So It is not healthy Lonzo Ball who can save MIN, but combination of healthy Ball who defends and facilitate and Dillingham who scores and break opponent defense.

[winforlose]

There was some skepticism coming into the season about whether Lonzo Ball would be healthy enough to play – and what sort of impact he’d have – for the Bulls after being sidelined due to knee issues for two-and-a-half years. Ball has only appeared in eight of 25 games, but his multi-week absence was the result of a new wrist injury rather than his surgically repaired knee, which the Bulls guard says has held up just fine so far, as Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times relays.

“To be honest, I’m a lot better than I thought I was going to be, early on for sure,” Ball said, referring to both his knee and his defense. “There’s still some mishaps, definitely on the ball sometimes. But for the most part I feel comfortable out there. I feel like I haven’t really missed a beat, so I just try and give good minutes when I’m out there.”

As Cowley writes, the positive effect that Ball has on Chicago’s lineup has been apparent even in his limited playing time. The club has a +6.5 net rating in his 134 minutes on the court; the team’s net rating is just -5.4 in the 1,066 minutes he hasn’t played. That’s easily the biggest on/off-court disparity among Bulls players who have logged at least 100 minutes.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2024/12/eastern-notes-ball-mobley-heat-k-johnson.html

Can Lonzo Ball be our version of Shaun Livingston in championship GSW? Would be a fantastic story. But. Such trade would definitely put all our cards on gamble that Dilly becomes a high level scorer in NBA. So It is not healthy Lonzo Ball who can save MIN, but combination of healthy Ball who defends and facilitate and Dillingham who scores and break opponent defense.

A while back a similar decision had to be made. A player once great in their youth and health was now a huge gamble with a large potential for upside, but also the power to destroy. A superstar was traded for that young man, that superstar was James Harden, and the player in question, Ben Simmons. Is Lonzo the next Ben Simmons, maybe not. But I sure as **** don’t want to risk it without owning our own picks in 25, 27, 31 and having 29 being top 5 protected. Not to mention owing an unprotected swap in 26 and a top 1 protected swap in 30. This isn’t the team that takes those kind of risks. If we are then this team will hemorrhage fans if it fails and this team will finally move.

[minimus]

Read on Twitter

I read it this way:
First, we have future starting PF in case Randle will leave. Second, we have a pair of quality two-way comboguards

So trading Randle might NOT be a about finding a direct Randle replacement. It is more about asset management. It means that maybe TC will find a way to get backup С or another playmaker, or an early SRP, or a rotation wing.

[winforlose]

Read on Twitter

I read it this way:
First, we have future starting PF in case Randle will leave. Second, we have a pair of quality two-way comboguards

So trading Randle might NOT be a about finding a direct Randle replacement. It is more about asset management. It means that maybe TC will find a way to get backup С or another playmaker, or an early SRP, or a rotation wing.

I like this way of thinking. I want to expand on it, please feel free to correct me where I get wrong .

1. Pretend Randle is abducted by aliens and we get no value for him.

2. Naz moves into the starting PF spot. At present the backup PF is split between Jaden McDaniels and Josh Minott.

3. At present Dilly is out with an Ankle injury. This moves NAW to backup PG behind Mike. When Dilly is back, we must assume he will get at least a .5 rotation spot with extra minutes on the nights Mike is out.

4. Ant and Jaden are the starting wings, if Jaden slides up DDV or NAW replace him as starting 3 (again assuming Naz is out.) if both Naz and Mike are down for a game, the starting lineup is NAW/DDV/Ant/Jaden/Rudy. The bench is Dilly/Minott/Garza and maybe Jingles. TSJ could also make an appearance in case of foul trouble.

5. So pretend you can clear Randle and Dozier from the roster (the aliens messed with the NBA rules,) now you can sign a backup PF2 and a backup PG2/3. Now you might be thinking why do we need another PG with Mike and Dilly. The answer is because Mike is 37 and Dilly is 19. Our bad start means we have very little margin for error in the dog days of February and March. We also have Mike aging out in a year or two and we have proven we function poorly without a PG.

6. The only player whose injury would end our season is Rudy. We have no defense without Rudy. So our highest priority is backup C, not PF. Our next highest priority is Mike insurance. If nothing else, taking pressure off of Mike and allowing him more rest will be better come playoff time. Our targets are C and PG. PF is important, but I have it as priority 3 behind C and PG.

[minimus]

Read on Twitter

I read it this way:
First, we have future starting PF in case Randle will leave. Second, we have a pair of quality two-way comboguards

So trading Randle might NOT be a about finding a direct Randle replacement. It is more about asset management. It means that maybe TC will find a way to get backup С or another playmaker, or an early SRP, or a rotation wing.

I like this way of thinking. I want to expand on it.

I feel like Randle player option is the biggest X-factor here. If he is not traded and declines his player option, then it might be a possible for TC to re-sign both Reid and NAW AND have MLE which he can use to sign backup big like Mo Wagner, Larry Nance Jr or Portis. That is a big IF.

Another X-factor here is McDaniels development path, I believe he can play PF at least as backup, behind a "true" starting PF. But in this case I am a bit worried if Finch replaces McDaniels minutes at SF with NAW. Ideally, if Finch uses McDaniels at PF, Finch should give more minutes Minott as the only full-size wing in rotation.

Finally, I like what I see from our g-league team so far. Clark, Shannon, Nix, Miller playing well, IMO all four would be playing in rotation for tanking NBA teams.