The Rob Dillingham Thread

[shrink]

The size of Dillingham’s contract adds a little insurance.

I have high hopes for him, but it may take a little time for him to develop his body and his defense for playoff basketball. Imagine a scenario though where everything is clicking, MIN is leading the West in January, but suddenly Mike Conley is lost for the season. Dillingham, Ant and MacLaughlin aren’t providing enough playmaking, and we start dropping in the standings. Aside from the vet min, we don’t have any way to add a competent vet PG without trading away a key piece.

Dillingham is $6.2 mil contract could be traded for any player making less, including anyone other teams signed for the tMLE. He could be extremely attractive to many teams, that are tanking now, or who are tanking later because their season fell off the rails.

There is no one behind him, especially if you let Monte go in free agency. We cannot add anyone but vet minimums going forward. RD will not be used as cap relief or short term injury insurance.

So how would you solve the scenario, MIN is leading the West next year and Mike Conley goes down? Trade a more win-now player? We can’t aggregate salaries to trade our cheap guys.

[KGdaBom]

The size of Dillingham’s contract adds a little insurance.

I have high hopes for him, but it may take a little time for him to develop his body and his defense for playoff basketball. Imagine a scenario though where everything is clicking, MIN is leading the West in January, but suddenly Mike Conley is lost for the season. Dillingham, Ant and MacLaughlin aren’t providing enough playmaking, and we start dropping in the standings. Aside from the vet min, we don’t have any way to add a competent vet PG without trading away a key piece.

Dillingham is $6.2 mil contract could be traded for any player making less, including anyone other teams signed for the tMLE. He could be extremely attractive to many teams, that are tanking now, or who are tanking later because their season fell off the rails.

There is no one behind him, especially if you let Monte go in free agency. We cannot add anyone but vet minimums going forward. RD will not be used as cap relief or short term injury insurance.

So how would you solve the scenario, MIN is leading the West next year and Mike Conley goes down? Trade a more win-now player? We can’t aggregate salaries to trade our cheap guys.

If Dilly is so horrible that we would trade him for somebody making less we won't find anybody making less who will do us any good. No way in hell we are trading Dilly. He will be Conley's replacement if he goes down.

[shrink]

There is no one behind him, especially if you let Monte go in free agency. We cannot add anyone but vet minimums going forward. RD will not be used as cap relief or short term injury insurance.

So how would you solve the scenario, MIN is leading the West next year and Mike Conley goes down? Trade a more win-now player? We can’t aggregate salaries to trade our cheap guys.

If Dilly is so horrible that we would trade him for somebody making less we won't find anybody making less who will do us any good. No way in hell we are trading Dilly. He will be Conley's replacement if he goes down.

The thing is that Dillingham can both be not horrible, but also not ready to be a starting NBA in Year One for a team that wants to win a championship now. I hope he becomes a star, but he isn’t going to be good enough to be a starting PG in six months. Making him the starting PG means you’re not trying to win this year, but hope he improves and can win in future years.

The only places to find a PG is unsigned players (no), the pool of vet min players (?), and the pool of players that were good enough to get contract for more than the vet min (better). Otherwise, you are trading a more win-now piece.

I’m not saying that Dilly won’t have value, regardless of how he plays. Especially with such a strong draft in 2025, teams may be eager to trade a good player (plus value, maybe) for a prospect and be bad this year. I am saying an 18 year old shouldn’t be running a championship-caliber team, if they want to remain a championship-caliber team for the current season.

[winforlose]

The size of Dillingham’s contract adds a little insurance.

I have high hopes for him, but it may take a little time for him to develop his body and his defense for playoff basketball. Imagine a scenario though where everything is clicking, MIN is leading the West in January, but suddenly Mike Conley is lost for the season. Dillingham, Ant and MacLaughlin aren’t providing enough playmaking, and we start dropping in the standings. Aside from the vet min, we don’t have any way to add a competent vet PG without trading away a key piece.

Dillingham is $6.2 mil contract could be traded for any player making less, including anyone other teams signed for the tMLE. He could be extremely attractive to many teams, that are tanking now, or who are tanking later because their season fell off the rails.

There is no one behind him, especially if you let Monte go in free agency. We cannot add anyone but vet minimums going forward. RD will not be used as cap relief or short term injury insurance.

So how would you solve the scenario, MIN is leading the West next year and Mike Conley goes down? Trade a more win-now player? We can’t aggregate salaries to trade our cheap guys.

1. Keep Monte Morris with bird rights. That way he can step into the starting role and give you most of what Mike was giving you.

2. Use NAW sparingly at the PG mostly with Ant on ball and NAW as basically the SG but technically at the PG.

3. Use spot 15 to sign the best available PG at the minimum. I know we are locked out of the buyout market as a 2nd apron team. We could also trade a Minott or Garza for a decent PG equivalent in a pinch.

Conley is huge, but at 37 you cannot expect him to match much less exceed last years performance. That is why Monte is so vital.

[BlacJacMac]

There is no one behind him, especially if you let Monte go in free agency. We cannot add anyone but vet minimums going forward. RD will not be used as cap relief or short term injury insurance.

So how would you solve the scenario, MIN is leading the West next year and Mike Conley goes down? Trade a more win-now player? We can’t aggregate salaries to trade our cheap guys.

1. Keep Monte Morris with bird rights. That way he can step into the starting role and give you most of what Mike was giving you.

2. Use NAW sparingly at the PG mostly with Ant on ball and NAW as basically the SG but technically at the PG.

3. Use spot 15 to sign the best available PG at the minimum. I know we are locked out of the buyout market as a 2nd apron team. We could also trade a Minott or Garza for a decent PG equivalent in a pinch.

Conley is huge, but at 37 you cannot expect him to match much less exceed last years performance. That is why Monte is so vital.

I think you're going to be very disappointed...

[KGdaBom]

So how would you solve the scenario, MIN is leading the West next year and Mike Conley goes down? Trade a more win-now player? We can’t aggregate salaries to trade our cheap guys.

If Dilly is so horrible that we would trade him for somebody making less we won't find anybody making less who will do us any good. No way in hell we are trading Dilly. He will be Conley's replacement if he goes down.

The thing is that Dillingham can both be not horrible, but also not ready to be a starting NBA in Year One for a team that wants to win a championship now. I hope he becomes a star, but he isn’t going to be good enough to be a starting PG in six months. Making him the starting PG means you’re not trying to win this year, but hope he improves and can win in future years.

The only places to find a PG is unsigned players (no), the pool of vet min players (?), and the pool of players that were good enough to get contract for more than the vet min (better). Otherwise, you are trading a more win-now piece.

I’m not saying that Dilly won’t have value, regardless of how he plays. Especially with such a strong draft in 2025, teams may be eager to trade a good player (plus value, maybe) for a prospect and be bad this year. I am saying an 18 year old shouldn’t be running a championship-caliber team, if they want to remain a championship-caliber team for the current season.

Trading him isn't going to get us a player worthy of running a championship-caliber team either.

[shrink]

There is no one behind him, especially if you let Monte go in free agency. We cannot add anyone but vet minimums going forward. RD will not be used as cap relief or short term injury insurance.

So how would you solve the scenario, MIN is leading the West next year and Mike Conley goes down? Trade a more win-now player? We can’t aggregate salaries to trade our cheap guys.

1. Keep Monte Morris with bird rights. That way he can step into the starting role and give you most of what Mike was giving you.

2. Use NAW sparingly at the PG mostly with Ant on ball and NAW as basically the SG but technically at the PG.

3. Use spot 15 to sign the best available PG at the minimum. I know we are locked out of the buyout market as a 2nd apron team. We could also trade a Minott or Garza for a decent PG equivalent in a pinch.

Conley is huge, but at 37 you cannot expect him to match much less exceed last years performance. That is why Monte is so vital.

Yes, I think they should just bite the bullet and sign Monte too. But I think there is a greater chance they sign Anderson, and there is a good chance both could be gone.

I suppose SloMo could become the PG if Conley went down without Morris here. There just isn’t enough playmaking without him.

[Klomp]

I watched a bunch of that Dillingham full season tape.

He’s a home run hitter, as Finch likes to say. It’s either a huge miss or a huge make. Not much in between. Most shots were very high difficulty. Lotta airballs, lotta tough makes.

When a player makes 48% from the field and 44% from three I don't care if 52% of his shots are airballs.

I would say there is a risk of his percentages dropping against taller, more athletic defenders.

This is because he was already high risk / reward in college. The risk rate will only go up in the NBA. The reward rate certainly will not go up.

There is also a reward rate that there is a lot more space on an NBA court. The key is 4 feet wider in the NBA. It spreads out both the offenses and defenses to create more driving lanes.

[winforlose]

So how would you solve the scenario, MIN is leading the West next year and Mike Conley goes down? Trade a more win-now player? We can’t aggregate salaries to trade our cheap guys.

1. Keep Monte Morris with bird rights. That way he can step into the starting role and give you most of what Mike was giving you.

2. Use NAW sparingly at the PG mostly with Ant on ball and NAW as basically the SG but technically at the PG.

3. Use spot 15 to sign the best available PG at the minimum. I know we are locked out of the buyout market as a 2nd apron team. We could also trade a Minott or Garza for a decent PG equivalent in a pinch.

Conley is huge, but at 37 you cannot expect him to match much less exceed last years performance. That is why Monte is so vital.

I think you're going to be very disappointed...

With Garza this far I already am. I thought ownership had more balls. If we let Morris walk and put everything on Mike staying healthy and Dilly developing we are idiots who deserve what will happen to us. Betting the farm on 37 year old Mike Conley and 19 year old RD with no proper backup plan is a David Kahn type move, not a TC move.

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

Who in your opinion is the best player in this year’s Draft?
– from Shiloh in Chicago, IL

I haven’t researched this incoming Draft class, so it would be unfair to pick one person. But I do like what I’ve seen from Alexander Sarr and Rob Dillingham.

How do you feel about the comparisons to you and Lou Williams when talking about Rob Dillingham? Do you think he can find similar success in a similar role?
– from Dylan in Kentucky

Yes, he could find success in that role. But if I was him, I’d be going for it all first. Obviously, he won’t start from day one. But he should be viewing himself as a starter and a young franchise point guard. That’s the mindset Lou Will and I had when we entered the league. So if I was Rob, I’d be viewing myself like that and hopefully land in the right situation to help me grow into that. Then you go from there.

Who has the best handle in the Draft?
– from Beny in New York, NY

Rob Dillingham. Best handle not only in the Draft, but I think immediately when he walks into the NBA he’ll have one of the top 10 handles currently in the league.

[BlacJacMac]

1. Keep Monte Morris with bird rights. That way he can step into the starting role and give you most of what Mike was giving you.

2. Use NAW sparingly at the PG mostly with Ant on ball and NAW as basically the SG but technically at the PG.

3. Use spot 15 to sign the best available PG at the minimum. I know we are locked out of the buyout market as a 2nd apron team. We could also trade a Minott or Garza for a decent PG equivalent in a pinch.

Conley is huge, but at 37 you cannot expect him to match much less exceed last years performance. That is why Monte is so vital.

I think you're going to be very disappointed...

With Garza this far I already am. I thought ownership had more balls. If we let Morris walk and put everything on Mike staying healthy and Dilly developing we are idiots who deserve what will happen to us. Betting the farm on 37 year old Mike Conley and 19 year old RD with no proper backup plan is a David Kahn type move, not a TC move.

I'm sure TC would love to sign Monté for the minimum, but its up to Morris, not the Wolves.

[BlacJacMac]

So how would you solve the scenario, MIN is leading the West next year and Mike Conley goes down? Trade a more win-now player? We can’t aggregate salaries to trade our cheap guys.

1. Keep Monte Morris with bird rights. That way he can step into the starting role and give you most of what Mike was giving you.

2. Use NAW sparingly at the PG mostly with Ant on ball and NAW as basically the SG but technically at the PG.

3. Use spot 15 to sign the best available PG at the minimum. I know we are locked out of the buyout market as a 2nd apron team. We could also trade a Minott or Garza for a decent PG equivalent in a pinch.

Conley is huge, but at 37 you cannot expect him to match much less exceed last years performance. That is why Monte is so vital.

Yes, I think they should just bite the bullet and sign Monte too. But I think there is a greater chance they sign Anderson, and there is a good chance both could be gone.

I suppose SloMo could become the PG if Conley went down without Morris here. There just isn’t enough playmaking without him.

If today's report that he's looking for the MLE is true, the only way he comes back is if he's shut out in free agency.

[KGdaBom]

I think you're going to be very disappointed...

With Garza this far I already am. I thought ownership had more balls. If we let Morris walk and put everything on Mike staying healthy and Dilly developing we are idiots who deserve what will happen to us. Betting the farm on 37 year old Mike Conley and 19 year old RD with no proper backup plan is a David Kahn type move, not a TC move.

I'm sure TC would love to sign Monté for the minimum, but its up to Morris, not the Wolves.

Yep. If we could sign him for minimum I'd be all over that. He would be our 3rd PG. Dilly would be the second.

[Biff Cooper]

It seems like Dillingham is going to be more of a hybrid PG/SG. Need another prototypical PG on the opening day roster to go along with Conley (Morris, JMac, someone else, etc.). The Wolves have quite a bit of ball handling across all their positions, so it might not matter on a nightly basis during the regular season, but they are trying to put together a roster that can win in a variety of ways against a variety of teams - and still withstand injuries. Having Conley be the only prototypical PG on a roster would be very risky.

[Klomp]

It seems like Dillingham is going to be more of a hybrid PG/SG.

Where do you get that from?

[KGdaBom]

It seems like Dillingham is going to be more of a hybrid PG/SG. Need another prototypical PG on the opening day roster to go along with Conley (Morris, JMac, someone else, etc.). The Wolves have quite a bit of ball handling across all their positions, so it might not matter on a nightly basis during the regular season, but they are trying to put together a roster that can win in a variety of ways against a variety of teams - and still withstand injuries. Having Conley be the only prototypical PG on a roster would be very risky.

Dilly's ball handling is plenty good to be a prototypical PG. He just needs to grow into the role.

[Klomp]

Dillingham became the 12th Top 8 pick out of Kentucky since 2010 (15 drafts). I'd classify only 4 of the previous 11 guys as NBA busts (and that might even be a stretch)...and only one of the four was a guard.

[KGdaBom]

Read on Twitter

Who in your opinion is the best player in this year’s Draft?
– from Shiloh in Chicago, IL

I haven’t researched this incoming Draft class, so it would be unfair to pick one person. But I do like what I’ve seen from Alexander Sarr and Rob Dillingham.

How do you feel about the comparisons to you and Lou Williams when talking about Rob Dillingham? Do you think he can find similar success in a similar role?
– from Dylan in Kentucky

[b]Yes, he could find success in that role. But if I was him, I’d be going for it all first. Obviously, he won’t start from day one. But he should be viewing himself as a starter and a young franchise point guard. That’s the mindset Lou Will and I had when we entered the league. So if I was Rob, I’d be viewing myself like that and hopefully land in the right situation to help me grow into that. Then you go from there.
[/b]
Who has the best handle in the Draft?
– from Beny in New York, NY

Rob Dillingham. Best handle not only in the Draft, but I think immediately when he walks into the NBA he’ll have one of the top 10 handles currently in the league.

That's the part of what Crawford said that I hope Dilly and the Wolves aspire too. Lou Williams was great, Crawford was very good, but why can't Dilly be even better.

[jpatrick]

It seems like Dillingham is going to be more of a hybrid PG/SG. Need another prototypical PG on the opening day roster to go along with Conley (Morris, JMac, someone else, etc.). The Wolves have quite a bit of ball handling across all their positions, so it might not matter on a nightly basis during the regular season, but they are trying to put together a roster that can win in a variety of ways against a variety of teams - and still withstand injuries. Having Conley be the only prototypical PG on a roster would be very risky.

He’s going to have no idea how to organize or lead an NBA offense from day 1. He played almost exclusively with Sheppard at Kentucky, who played much more that role. However, you don’t draft a 6’1” 164 lb guard at #8 unless he’s your future PG. you have to give him that role behind Conley and let him learn. And we will have another PG, probably Morris or JMac at the vet min.

[Klomp]

It seems like Dillingham is going to be more of a hybrid PG/SG. Need another prototypical PG on the opening day roster to go along with Conley (Morris, JMac, someone else, etc.). The Wolves have quite a bit of ball handling across all their positions, so it might not matter on a nightly basis during the regular season, but they are trying to put together a roster that can win in a variety of ways against a variety of teams - and still withstand injuries. Having Conley be the only prototypical PG on a roster would be very risky.

He’s going to have no idea how to organize or lead an NBA offense from day 1. He played almost exclusively with Sheppard at Kentucky, who played much more that role. However, you don’t draft a 6’1” 164 lb guard at #8 unless he’s your future PG. you have to give him that role behind Conley and let him learn. And we will have another PG, probably Morris or JMac at the vet min.

I'm sorry, but the "running the offense" thing is one of the most overrated fan critiques of NBA prospects.

That's not going to be his role. Maybe it will be at some point; maybe it won't. But it has no bearing on what I expect his instant impact to be now and going forward.