Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[Norseman79]

Is it wrong that I hate that people keep trying to find ways to get us to play smaller? Small ball sucks, unless you are loaded with uber athletic snipers. Yes, people can point to teams where it works, but why? We are two players removed from a big team that reached the WCF, now we want to figure out how to use a roster that was designed for that, to play undersized? For what purpose? To get a backup 2 guard more minutes instead of developing a backup SF? The best franchises develop players through the draft and supplement through free agency. How do we know Jaylen Clark won't be as good as Alexander Walker? Don't even get me started on the front court. We are tiny outside of Rudy. Naz due to bulk is a good sized PF, but that's it for size. We lost a 7' pf/c and a 6'9 SF...both of which were huge reasons for our success.

If we make trades, let's get back to what worked. Bring in size, balance roster, and keep building culture around effort and defense.

[frankenwolf]

Read on Twitter

I read it this way:
First, we have future starting PF in case Randle will leave. Second, we have a pair of quality two-way comboguards

So trading Randle might NOT be a about finding a direct Randle replacement. It is more about asset management. It means that maybe TC will find a way to get backup С or another playmaker, or an early SRP, or a rotation wing.

I like this way of thinking. I want to expand on it, please feel free to correct me where I get wrong .

1. Pretend Randle is abducted by aliens and we get no value for him.

2. Naz moves into the starting PF spot. At present the backup PF is split between Jaden McDaniels and Josh Minott.

3. At present Dilly is out with an Ankle injury. This moves NAW to backup PG behind Mike. When Dilly is back, we must assume he will get at least a .5 rotation spot with extra minutes on the nights Mike is out.

4. Ant and Jaden are the starting wings, if Jaden slides up DDV or NAW replace him as starting 3 (again assuming Naz is out.) if both Naz and Mike are down for a game, the starting lineup is NAW/DDV/Ant/Jaden/Rudy. The bench is Dilly/Minott/Garza and maybe Jingles. TSJ could also make an appearance in case of foul trouble.

5. So pretend you can clear Randle and Dozier from the roster (the aliens messed with the NBA rules,) now you can sign a backup PF2 and a backup PG2/3. Now you might be thinking why do we need another PG with Mike and Dilly. The answer is because Mike is 37 and Dilly is 19. Our bad start means we have very little margin for error in the dog days of February and March. We also have Mike aging out in a year or two and we have proven we function poorly without a PG.

6. The only player whose injury would end our season is Rudy. We have no defense without Rudy. So our highest priority is backup C, not PF. Our next highest priority is Mike insurance. If nothing else, taking pressure off of Mike and allowing him more rest will be better come playoff time. Our targets are C and PG. PF is important, but I have it as priority 3 behind C and PG.

I like it. We do need to get a back up 5 because we really have no one who can fill that role for Rudy rest nights. I like Garza, but I don't see LBJ or Embiid slowing a drive because Garza might block the shot. I understand the PG problem, but I think that Nix would be the PG3, at least this year.

Imagine a job that 100% depends on other people being successful and there you have an NBA GM/POBO. I'm glad it's not me.

[shrink]

With the Jimmy trade news, I thought I’d unearth this one.

I played a little bit with this earlier today as a three-teamer

MIN GIVES: Julius Randle
MIN GETS: Jonathan Isaac + Corey Joseph

ORL GIVES: Jonathan Isaac + Cole Anthony + Corey Joseph
ORL GETS: Jimmy Butler + Alec Burks

MIA GIVES: Jimmy Butler + Alec Burks
MIA GETS: Julius Randle + Cole Anthony

My thinking was that even though as a MIN guy I’m no fan of Jimmy, he’d bring ORL playoff experience and leadership, and would probably love playing with those hard-working guys, while staying in Florida longterm. Randle also probably re-signs if he’s in MIA while Jimmy is a question mark, and Kevin Love is 36. MIN probably needs more with Isaac’s health issues, but when he’s healthy, he would bring back MIN’s defensive identity and he could be a good contract on that extension for the expensive Wolves. MIN feedback was mixed, but likely expected since Isaac’s value varies highly between people based on risk-tolerance.

How would you rank the values of Jimmy, Randle, and Isaac? I don’t know who needs to add value, but this is CBA-legal deal on December 11, according to Spotrac

[BlacJacMac]

It’s as good a partner as any. The question is what/who for what/who?

Randle for Ball, Smith, and Portlands protected pick

On a scale of I hate it to the very notion of this makes me physically ill, you have actually broken the scale. Any deal with the Bulls starts with Coby White. White is the perfect pair with Ant, is on a value deal, and is the right age for the timeline. As for Ball, if his name isn’t Lamelo we need to stay the **** away, (and we aren’t getting Lamelo.) Lonzo is not someone who could ever be trusted in a deep playoff run, and you don’t trade Randle to get worse. Smith is decent, but I would rather Add Vuc for C depth and move Dozier to a 3rd team in the deal so we don’t need to cut anyone. We could also add Jingles to a 3rd team, use the roster spot to add a PF who made less than 12 before being waiver or bought out.

Depth chart

PG: Coby White, Mike, Dilly
SG: Ant, DDV, NAW
SF: Jaden, NAW, TSJ
PF: Naz, Minott, free agent with Ingles spot
C: Rudy, Vuc, Garza

I'm not a Coby White fan. Great scorer, but he's a PG in the same sense Ant is. And he's a horrible defender.

Lonzo Ball, if healthy, is actually the perfect pair with Ant. He's a knockdown 3pt shooter, a very good defender (with the size to be switchable) and rebounder and an absolute wizard in transition. He doesn't dominate the ball in the halfcourt at all. The injury is a major red flag, but unlike Simmons, you don't need to worry about his headspace. The injury is super scary, but if he was guaranteed healthy, there is no way you could even get him straight up for Randle.

And I love Smith for this team. He's a tremendous rebounder, a decent defender and he has enough stretch to his game to play the 4 or 5 on both ends. He could absolutely play with (or for) either Rudy or Naz.

[winforlose]

Randle for Ball, Smith, and Portlands protected pick

On a scale of I hate it to the very notion of this makes me physically ill, you have actually broken the scale. Any deal with the Bulls starts with Coby White. White is the perfect pair with Ant, is on a value deal, and is the right age for the timeline. As for Ball, if his name isn’t Lamelo we need to stay the **** away, (and we aren’t getting Lamelo.) Lonzo is not someone who could ever be trusted in a deep playoff run, and you don’t trade Randle to get worse. Smith is decent, but I would rather Add Vuc for C depth and move Dozier to a 3rd team in the deal so we don’t need to cut anyone. We could also add Jingles to a 3rd team, use the roster spot to add a PF who made less than 12 before being waiver or bought out.

Depth chart

PG: Coby White, Mike, Dilly
SG: Ant, DDV, NAW
SF: Jaden, NAW, TSJ
PF: Naz, Minott, free agent with Ingles spot
C: Rudy, Vuc, Garza

I'm not a Coby White fan. Great scorer, but he's a PG in the same sense Ant is. And he's a horrible defender.

Lonzo Ball, if healthy, is actually the perfect pair with Ant. He's a knockdown 3pt shooter, a very good defender (with the size to be switchable) and rebounder and an absolute wizard in transition. He doesn't dominate the ball in the halfcourt at all. The injury is a major red flag, but unlike Simmons, you don't need to worry about his headspace. The injury is super scary, but if he was guaranteed healthy, there is no way you could even get him straight up for Randle.

And I love Smith for this team. He's a tremendous rebounder, a decent defender and he has enough stretch to his game to play the 4 or 5 on both ends. He could absolutely play with (or for) either Rudy or Naz.

My issue was with Lonzo more than Smith. I would need to look into Smith more to have an opinion. But Lonzo staying healthy isn’t something anyone can guarantee. The only thing worse than bad money is dead money. The Bulls looked at Lonzo as dead money. You don’t shoulder that kind of risk at this critical time. That truly is a franchise killer.

White is the primary scorer for the Bulls. Imagine him with Ant and Naz spacing things out, with Rudy setting screens, and with DDV to kick to in the corners. White is more than you think as a ball handler (from what little I have seen of him,) and I do think he could be a plus defender with Rudy behind him and a team actually trying to accomplish something. He is the perfect age and fit. White/Ant/Jaden/Naz/Rudy is scary.

[BlacJacMac]

Kobe is tall, but its all in his legs. He has short arms, tiny hands and a very high center of gravity.

He has a loose, high dribble up near his chest because of those issues and it makes him a mediocre ballhandler. And his athleticism is really constrained to North-South - he is very fast with the ball in a straight line. He's much more challenged laterally. If he's going to beat his man, its all change of pace or hesitation. He's more likely to be forced into stepbacks than to get by his man. When he tries to go East-West is when he turns it over.

All of those thing also contribute to him being a very poor defender - and that's unlikely to change.

[Klomp]

There was some skepticism coming into the season about whether Lonzo Ball would be healthy enough to play – and what sort of impact he’d have – for the Bulls after being sidelined due to knee issues for two-and-a-half years. Ball has only appeared in eight of 25 games, but his multi-week absence was the result of a new wrist injury rather than his surgically repaired knee, which the Bulls guard says has held up just fine so far, as Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times relays.

“To be honest, I’m a lot better than I thought I was going to be, early on for sure,” Ball said, referring to both his knee and his defense. “There’s still some mishaps, definitely on the ball sometimes. But for the most part I feel comfortable out there. I feel like I haven’t really missed a beat, so I just try and give good minutes when I’m out there.”

As Cowley writes, the positive effect that Ball has on Chicago’s lineup has been apparent even in his limited playing time. The club has a +6.5 net rating in his 134 minutes on the court; the team’s net rating is just -5.4 in the 1,066 minutes he hasn’t played. That’s easily the biggest on/off-court disparity among Bulls players who have logged at least 100 minutes.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2024/12/eastern-notes-ball-mobley-heat-k-johnson.html

Can Lonzo Ball be our version of Shaun Livingston in championship GSW? Would be a fantastic story. But. Such trade would definitely put all our cards on gamble that Dilly becomes a high level scorer in NBA. So It is not healthy Lonzo Ball who can save MIN, but combination of healthy Ball who defends and facilitate and Dillingham who scores and break opponent defense.

A while back a similar decision had to be made. A player once great in their youth and health was now a huge gamble with a large potential for upside, but also the power to destroy. A superstar was traded for that young man, that superstar was James Harden, and the player in question, Ben Simmons. Is Lonzo the next Ben Simmons, maybe not. But I sure as **** don’t want to risk it without owning our own picks in 25, 27, 31 and having 29 being top 5 protected. Not to mention owing an unprotected swap in 26 and a top 1 protected swap in 30. This isn’t the team that takes those kind of risks. If we are then this team will hemorrhage fans if it fails and this team will finally move.

There is one SIGNIFICANT difference. Simmons was on Year 2 of a 5-year, $177 million extension. Meaning if it doesn't work, there is no chance of getting off that contract. Lonzo Ball is on the fourth and final season of a 4-year, $80 million contract. Meaning if it doesn't work, the team still has a chance to reset its books.

[Klomp]

Kobe is tall, but its all in his legs. He has short arms, tiny hands and a very high center of gravity.

He has a loose, high dribble up near his chest because of those issues and it makes him a mediocre ballhandler. And his athleticism is really constrained to North-South - he is very fast with the ball in a straight line. He's much more challenged laterally. If he's going to beat his man, its all change of pace or hesitation. He's more likely to be forced into stepbacks than to get by his man. When he tries to go East-West is when he turns it over.

All of those thing also contribute to him being a very poor defender - and that's unlikely to change.

Note for those who are as confused as I was for a good 10 seconds: He's talking about Coby White.

[BlacJacMac]

Note for those who are as confused as I was for a good 10 seconds: He's talking about Coby White.

Thanks for the back-up!

[winforlose]

Can Lonzo Ball be our version of Shaun Livingston in championship GSW? Would be a fantastic story. But. Such trade would definitely put all our cards on gamble that Dilly becomes a high level scorer in NBA. So It is not healthy Lonzo Ball who can save MIN, but combination of healthy Ball who defends and facilitate and Dillingham who scores and break opponent defense.

A while back a similar decision had to be made. A player once great in their youth and health was now a huge gamble with a large potential for upside, but also the power to destroy. A superstar was traded for that young man, that superstar was James Harden, and the player in question, Ben Simmons. Is Lonzo the next Ben Simmons, maybe not. But I sure as **** don’t want to risk it without owning our own picks in 25, 27, 31 and having 29 being top 5 protected. Not to mention owing an unprotected swap in 26 and a top 1 protected swap in 30. This isn’t the team that takes those kind of risks. If we are then this team will hemorrhage fans if it fails and this team will finally move.

There is one SIGNIFICANT difference. Simmons was on Year 2 of a 5-year, $177 million extension. Meaning if it doesn't work, there is no chance of getting off that contract. Lonzo Ball is on the fourth and final season of a 4-year, $80 million contract. Meaning if it doesn't work, the team still has a chance to reset its books.

Okay. All it cost us then is any hope of winning a title during year 1 of 2nd apron. It also cost us the ability to use Randle to get actual talent to build for the future. Another way to think of it, you have a 100 dollar bill, you go to the track, you can bet on a horse likely to win and double your money. Instead you decide to bet on the 1,000 to one long shot. Of course here we happen to know the long shot has an injury history, is likely lame, and that 100 dollars is all the discretionary cash you have left. You can survive without it, but you will miss it if you waste it.

[BlacJacMac]

Can Lonzo Ball be our version of Shaun Livingston in championship GSW? Would be a fantastic story. But. Such trade would definitely put all our cards on gamble that Dilly becomes a high level scorer in NBA. So It is not healthy Lonzo Ball who can save MIN, but combination of healthy Ball who defends and facilitate and Dillingham who scores and break opponent defense.

A while back a similar decision had to be made. A player once great in their youth and health was now a huge gamble with a large potential for upside, but also the power to destroy. A superstar was traded for that young man, that superstar was James Harden, and the player in question, Ben Simmons. Is Lonzo the next Ben Simmons, maybe not. But I sure as **** don’t want to risk it without owning our own picks in 25, 27, 31 and having 29 being top 5 protected. Not to mention owing an unprotected swap in 26 and a top 1 protected swap in 30. This isn’t the team that takes those kind of risks. If we are then this team will hemorrhage fans if it fails and this team will finally move.

There is one SIGNIFICANT difference. Simmons was on Year 2 of a 5-year, $177 million extension. Meaning if it doesn't work, there is no chance of getting off that contract. Lonzo Ball is on the fourth and final season of a 4-year, $80 million contract. Meaning if it doesn't work, the team still has a chance to reset its books.

Right. Ball is a guaranteed expiring vs a potential expiring in Randle.

And if Ball can stay healthy, he's a clear fit on this squad - unlike Randle.

[Klomp]

A while back a similar decision had to be made. A player once great in their youth and health was now a huge gamble with a large potential for upside, but also the power to destroy. A superstar was traded for that young man, that superstar was James Harden, and the player in question, Ben Simmons. Is Lonzo the next Ben Simmons, maybe not. But I sure as **** don’t want to risk it without owning our own picks in 25, 27, 31 and having 29 being top 5 protected. Not to mention owing an unprotected swap in 26 and a top 1 protected swap in 30. This isn’t the team that takes those kind of risks. If we are then this team will hemorrhage fans if it fails and this team will finally move.

There is one SIGNIFICANT difference. Simmons was on Year 2 of a 5-year, $177 million extension. Meaning if it doesn't work, there is no chance of getting off that contract. Lonzo Ball is on the fourth and final season of a 4-year, $80 million contract. Meaning if it doesn't work, the team still has a chance to reset its books.

Okay. All it cost us then is any hope of winning a title during year 1 of 2nd apron. It also cost us the ability to use Randle to get actual talent to build for the future. Another way to think of it, you have a 100 dollar bill, you go to the track, you can bet on a horse likely to win and double your money. Instead you decide to bet on the 1,000 to one long shot. Of course here we happen to know the long shot has an injury history, is likely lame, and that 100 dollars is all the discretionary cash you have left. You can survive without it, but you will miss it if you waste it.

When you zoom all the way in to the trade and the trade itself, you have a point. Following up the previous trade with this reflects poorly on the original trade, because it is likely not extracting any additional value out of the original trade. This is honestly where my hesitance with the idea lies.

But I look at our roster construction as more than just a single trade or single season's roster. I'm looking at a 5-10 year period. Towns' salary would have held us back (honestly, that's the comparison for the Simmons trade you mentioned earlier, because one injury would fold the cards). I also believe that on the court, Towns was probably holding us back. Or more specifically, he was holding specific individuals back. I think as time goes on, you'll see guys make impacts that they couldn't have made with Towns. And that means while you may not extract value from a trade itself, you can get extra contributions from the roster as a whole.

The offense is still finding itself, but the pieces are there. And the defense has come around, even if effort from certain individuals lags from time to time. That was kinda the goal the team had going into the offseason: Improve offense without completely deteriorating the defense.

[shangrila]

With the Jimmy trade news, I thought I’d unearth this one.

I played a little bit with this earlier today as a three-teamer

MIN GIVES: Julius Randle
MIN GETS: Jonathan Isaac + Corey Joseph

ORL GIVES: Jonathan Isaac + Cole Anthony + Corey Joseph
ORL GETS: Jimmy Butler + Alec Burks

MIA GIVES: Jimmy Butler + Alec Burks
MIA GETS: Julius Randle + Cole Anthony

My thinking was that even though as a MIN guy I’m no fan of Jimmy, he’d bring ORL playoff experience and leadership, and would probably love playing with those hard-working guys, while staying in Florida longterm. Randle also probably re-signs if he’s in MIA while Jimmy is a question mark, and Kevin Love is 36. MIN probably needs more with Isaac’s health issues, but when he’s healthy, he would bring back MIN’s defensive identity and he could be a good contract on that extension for the expensive Wolves. MIN feedback was mixed, but likely expected since Isaac’s value varies highly between people based on risk-tolerance.

How would you rank the values of Jimmy, Randle, and Isaac? I don’t know who needs to add value, but this is CBA-legal deal on December 11, according to Spotrac

I'd do it. Isaac brings back more of the defensive identity we've lost, while from what I've heard spending more time at the 5 (so hopefully Reid doesn't have too).

Not sure about the future salary implications though.

[BlacJacMac]

With the Jimmy trade news, I thought I’d unearth this one.

I played a little bit with this earlier today as a three-teamer

MIN GIVES: Julius Randle
MIN GETS: Jonathan Isaac + Corey Joseph

ORL GIVES: Jonathan Isaac + Cole Anthony + Corey Joseph
ORL GETS: Jimmy Butler + Alec Burks

MIA GIVES: Jimmy Butler + Alec Burks
MIA GETS: Julius Randle + Cole Anthony

My thinking was that even though as a MIN guy I’m no fan of Jimmy, he’d bring ORL playoff experience and leadership, and would probably love playing with those hard-working guys, while staying in Florida longterm. Randle also probably re-signs if he’s in MIA while Jimmy is a question mark, and Kevin Love is 36. MIN probably needs more with Isaac’s health issues, but when he’s healthy, he would bring back MIN’s defensive identity and he could be a good contract on that extension for the expensive Wolves. MIN feedback was mixed, but likely expected since Isaac’s value varies highly between people based on risk-tolerance.

How would you rank the values of Jimmy, Randle, and Isaac? I don’t know who needs to add value, but this is CBA-legal deal on December 11, according to Spotrac

I'd do it. Isaac brings back more of the defensive identity we've lost, while from what I've heard spending more time at the 5 (so hopefully Reid doesn't have too).

Not sure about the future salary implications though.

According to BBREF, he's played 12% of his minutes this year at Center.

Overall he's provided the Magic a defensive boost in his 17 MPG, but he's cratered their offense.

[Klomp]

All the talk about bigger names being on the trade block actually increases the odds for a Randle trade in my mind. It can be hard to match trade values AND contracts in a two-team deal, so adding in a third team like Minnesota that has an all-NBA talent making a relatively modest $33 million could be enticing in some of these trade talks.

Just as an example, let's say Dallas wants Jimmy Butler and we already know Butler wants Dallas as one of his top landing spots. But at this point, once you get past Doncic and Irving, the biggest contract the Mavs can send out in a trade is $15,873,016 (Klay Thompson). So using a Randle contract to give Miami can really help facilitate a bigger trade like this so that Miami and Dallas are not left completely decimated.

[shrink]

All the talk about bigger names being on the trade block actually increases the odds for a Randle trade in my mind. It can be hard to match trade values AND contracts in a two-team deal, so adding in a third team like Minnesota that has an all-NBA talent making a relatively modest $33 million could be enticing in some of these trade talks.

Just as an example, let's say Dallas wants Jimmy Butler and we already know Butler wants Dallas as one of his top landing spots. But at this point, once you get past Doncic and Irving, the biggest contract the Mavs can send out in a trade is $15,873,016 (Klay Thompson). So using a Randle contract to give Miami can really help facilitate a bigger trade like this so that Miami and Dallas are not left completely decimated.

I agree. And it might keep MIA from having to dump extra contracts in a three-for-one.

Randle also has the PR with casuals to help the GM sell the deal to fans and ownership. It would be hard to say, “see how I traded Jimmy for three bench players you never heard of?” As I mentioned when we traded Towns, Randle may be valued as an expiring, but he has extra value because he’s a sellable expiring.

[shrink]

FWIW, I played with a MIN, MIA, DAL deal in the Spotrac Trade Machine. Lots of aprons, so I had to add DET to absorb salary.

MIA GETS: Randle + Klay
MIA GIVES: Butler + Jovic

Tells fans they are going for it with vets. Randle wants to be here, and they can afford him next year

DAL GETS: Butler
DAL GIVES: Gafford, Klay, Maxi Kleber, Naji Marshall

DAL needs to use a lot of salary to reach Jimmy’s number,

MIN GETS: Gafford, Kleber, Paul Reed
MIN GIVES: Randle

MIN handles its size issue. Expensive longterm

DET GETS: Jovic + Marshall
DET GIVES: Paul Reed + Cap Space.

DET gets a better prospect.


Trade needs a lot of polishing, but it’s functionally possible despite all the restrictions.

[cmoss84]

All the talk about bigger names being on the trade block actually increases the odds for a Randle trade in my mind. It can be hard to match trade values AND contracts in a two-team deal, so adding in a third team like Minnesota that has an all-NBA talent making a relatively modest $33 million could be enticing in some of these trade talks.

Just as an example, let's say Dallas wants Jimmy Butler and we already know Butler wants Dallas as one of his top landing spots. But at this point, once you get past Doncic and Irving, the biggest contract the Mavs can send out in a trade is $15,873,016 (Klay Thompson). So using a Randle contract to give Miami can really help facilitate a bigger trade like this so that Miami and Dallas are not left completely decimated.

I had a hard time figuring out a 3-way deal. Adding a 4th team makes it happen...but it probably won't be a sexy return for us.

[cmoss84]

This one came REALLY close...barely worked. Not sure on the draft picks.

Mia in: Randle, Washington, Jaden Hardy, 2 Dal FRP
Mia out: Butler, Jovic, Burks

Dal in: Butler, Jovic, Burks
Dal out: Thompson, Kleber, Lively II, 3 FRP

Min in: Thompson, Kleber, Lively II, Dal FRP
MN out: Randle
Waive 2 (Ingles and Dozier?)

*You could also exchange Marshall and Exum for Kleber*

[winforlose]

FWIW, I played with a MIN, MIA, DAL deal in the Spotrac Trade Machine. Lots of aprons, so I had to add DET to absorb salary.

MIA GETS: Randle + Klay
MIA GIVES: Butler + Jovic

Tells fans they are going for it with vets. Randle wants to be here, and they can afford him next year

DAL GETS: Butler
DAL GIVES: Gafford, Klay, Maxi Kleber, Naji Marshall

DAL needs to use a lot of salary to reach Jimmy’s number,

MIN GETS: Gafford, Kleber, Paul Reed
MIN GIVES: Randle

MIN handles its size issue. Expensive longterm

DET GETS: Jovic + Marshall
DET GIVES: Paul Reed + Cap Space.

DET gets a better prospect.


Trade needs a lot of polishing, but it’s functionally possible despite all the restrictions.

3 for one means a ton of dead cap which is super taxed. To even properly simulate it you need to be able to move Dozier and Jingles or Dozier and Garza (more likely Jingles,) which could mess it up.