The Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NAW) Thread

[Klomp]

Was listening to Dane Moore, he says that NAW is worth 15 and is essential to the team going forward. NAW had a terrible playoffs, and after a hot start is averaging 8.8/2.4/2.8 in 22.8 minutes. He also has 1.3 turnovers per game. I want to be clear I value NAW. I see him as a starter on between 1/3 to 1/2 of NBA teams. But my question is how much of a drop off is TSJ? TSJ lacks the catch and shoot 3 at the same clip as NAW, but is also good at getting to the rim and the line. If NAW is giving you 9 PPG in 22 MPG, is he that essential offensively? Regarding defense, you still have Jaden, DDV, Ant, and TSJ for POA. We haven’t seen much of TSJ defending at the NBA level, but based on college and his body type, do we believe he cannot defend at an NBA level?

I cannot help but think if we could turn NAW into draft capital and use that in a 3 team to bring back Jose Alverado, then we would be better off. Thoughts?

Edit to add: or you trade the Det pick add Jose, then you turn NAW into draft capital and combine him with Randle for other needs. Or you keep NAW and trade for Jose and now if NAW leaves next year you aren’t devastated.

It's important to remember, $15M is basically the MLE right not. This is far different from when Gorgui signed a 4/$63M contract eight years ago. That year, the MLE was just over $8M.

[winforlose]

Was listening to Dane Moore, he says that NAW is worth 15 and is essential to the team going forward. NAW had a terrible playoffs, and after a hot start is averaging 8.8/2.4/2.8 in 22.8 minutes. He also has 1.3 turnovers per game. I want to be clear I value NAW. I see him as a starter on between 1/3 to 1/2 of NBA teams. But my question is how much of a drop off is TSJ? TSJ lacks the catch and shoot 3 at the same clip as NAW, but is also good at getting to the rim and the line. If NAW is giving you 9 PPG in 22 MPG, is he that essential offensively? Regarding defense, you still have Jaden, DDV, Ant, and TSJ for POA. We haven’t seen much of TSJ defending at the NBA level, but based on college and his body type, do we believe he cannot defend at an NBA level?

I cannot help but think if we could turn NAW into draft capital and use that in a 3 team to bring back Jose Alverado, then we would be better off. Thoughts?

Edit to add: or you trade the Det pick add Jose, then you turn NAW into draft capital and combine him with Randle for other needs. Or you keep NAW and trade for Jose and now if NAW leaves next year you aren’t devastated.

It's important to remember, $15M is basically the MLE right not. This is far different from when Gorgui signed a 4/$63M contract eight years ago. That year, the MLE was just over $8M.

You’re thinking of it in the wrong way. It’s not that 15 is an overpay, it’s that our resources are very limited. If TSJ costs 2.675 and NAW costs 15, does the delta between NAW and TSJ justify putting the extra 12 and change into backup 2/3. Especially when you already have DDV who does a lot of what NAW does but with better rebounding, better handling and better shooting. NAW is the better defender, and shows more downhill ability, but his handle isn’t always good enough to get downhill.

[Loaf_of_bread]

Im a huge naw fan, but his performance in the playoffs this year moves the needle towards resigning or not.. similar to darnold/jj Mccarthy with the Vikings. If darnold can perform under pressure, you go with him. If he doesn't, move on (jj).

If you wait, then in order to get value for NAW you need to resign and then trade him in January or February.

Im still unsure of the guys character when he was complaining about fans booing, and guy states: "oh, ive been working hard, that's un called for.." no one cares bro.. that's your job to put in the work.

Jaden has been underwhelming, but is a guy i want on this team in the playoffs.. that should be the focus..

[Klomp]

Was listening to Dane Moore, he says that NAW is worth 15 and is essential to the team going forward. NAW had a terrible playoffs, and after a hot start is averaging 8.8/2.4/2.8 in 22.8 minutes. He also has 1.3 turnovers per game. I want to be clear I value NAW. I see him as a starter on between 1/3 to 1/2 of NBA teams. But my question is how much of a drop off is TSJ? TSJ lacks the catch and shoot 3 at the same clip as NAW, but is also good at getting to the rim and the line. If NAW is giving you 9 PPG in 22 MPG, is he that essential offensively? Regarding defense, you still have Jaden, DDV, Ant, and TSJ for POA. We haven’t seen much of TSJ defending at the NBA level, but based on college and his body type, do we believe he cannot defend at an NBA level?

I cannot help but think if we could turn NAW into draft capital and use that in a 3 team to bring back Jose Alverado, then we would be better off. Thoughts?

Edit to add: or you trade the Det pick add Jose, then you turn NAW into draft capital and combine him with Randle for other needs. Or you keep NAW and trade for Jose and now if NAW leaves next year you aren’t devastated.

It's important to remember, $15M is basically the MLE right not. This is far different from when Gorgui signed a 4/$63M contract eight years ago. That year, the MLE was just over $8M.

You’re thinking of it in the wrong way. It’s not that 15 is an overpay, it’s that our resources are very limited. If TSJ costs 2.675 and NAW costs 15, does the delta between NAW and TSJ justify putting the extra 12 and change into backup 2/3. Especially when you already have DDV who does a lot of what NAW does but with better rebounding, better handling and better shooting. NAW is the better defender, and shows more downhill ability, but his handle isn’t always good enough to get downhill.

Letting NAW go won't give us $15 million in cap space though. So you don't necessarily just get that $12 million to go to another player.

[winforlose]

It's important to remember, $15M is basically the MLE right not. This is far different from when Gorgui signed a 4/$63M contract eight years ago. That year, the MLE was just over $8M.

You’re thinking of it in the wrong way. It’s not that 15 is an overpay, it’s that our resources are very limited. If TSJ costs 2.675 and NAW costs 15, does the delta between NAW and TSJ justify putting the extra 12 and change into backup 2/3. Especially when you already have DDV who does a lot of what NAW does but with better rebounding, better handling and better shooting. NAW is the better defender, and shows more downhill ability, but his handle isn’t always good enough to get downhill.

Letting NAW go won't give us $15 million in cap space though. So you don't necessarily just get that $12 million to go to another player.

True, we are not talking 1 to 1 unless we are talking about the MLE. But if you turn NAW into a draft asset, and then turn that asset into another player, that money comes from the expected salary of NAW next year. Everything is connected. Unfortunately the time to make a decision on NAW is February and we haven’t seen any real TSJ minutes.

[minimus]

Im a huge naw fan, but his performance in the playoffs this year moves the needle towards resigning or not.. similar to darnold/jj Mccarthy with the Vikings. If darnold can perform under pressure, you go with him. If he doesn't, move on (jj).

One of the reasons was a painful hit from Jokic. Also NAW was a huge part of our stellar defensive performance, it was clear that he gives 100% effort in defense.

[minimus]

Can MIN split Randle contract into NAW (10-12mil) and Reid (20-22mil) new contracts, add a decent backup С (8-9mil) and still be under luxury tax line? I'm sure we will let Garza and Ingles go, but we need to re-sign Minott, add Rob, Clarke and TJ in rotation and TC only need to find a pass first PG.

I think with regard to ownership, MIN will try to avoid repeater tax at all costs.

[winforlose]

@Minimus I literally couldn’t read your post. Please try again, maybe with a different browser.

[winforlose]

Can MIN split Randle contract into NAW (10-12mil) and Reid (20-22mil) new contracts, add a decent backup С (8-9mil) and still be under luxury tax line? I'm sure we will let Garza and Ingles go, but we need to re-sign Minott, add Rob, Clarke and TJ in rotation and TC only need to find a pass first PG.

I think with regard to ownership, MIN will try to avoid repeater tax at all costs.

Let’s use this model. Have both Randle and Naz opt out, and the payroll is $141,833,018. This also accounts for no NAW and no Jingles, so from 14 players to 10. The Salary cap for next season is 154.6 million. Using Spotrac I got an estimated tax line of $187,897,000. This means to stay under the tax we have $46,063,982 to play with. The MLE is just over 14 million. A likely cost of NAW is at least 15 million. A likely cost of Naz is say 22. That is 37 out of the 46. That means you have 12 players and 9 million to get 2 more and avoid the tax. To avoid repeater we must be below the actual tax line. So let’s say we get a backup C for 6 and change and sign Clark to a minimum, (he cannot be a two way because he was last year and this year.) Are we a better team with a better chance of making the finals? Our young guys got older, but we lost Randle for nothing, and our PG depth is a 38 year old Mike and a 20 year old Rob. Our C depth is Rudy and whoever we could get for cheap. We lost Randle and Minott or Miller is now a rotation player. If Naz goes down then Minott and Miller will split PF duties or Jaden will move to PF and we are playing small ball. I don’t see this as an improvement, and thus I don’t see it as a viable path.

Edit to add: We have no control over whether uses his option or not. If he cannot get more money, he will opt in. That immediately adds 30+ to our pay role and basically guarantees we are a tax team. The only control we do have is to move Randle before the option kicks in, or before the tax is paid. We could sign Naz and NAW to extensions, keep Randle, and trade him next year. The issue is if we go this route even with a small return on Randle we will be in the tax. 3 years in the tax (24/25 is 1,) triggers repeater tax. So we would have 2. We would need to be out of the tax for years to avoid it.

My understanding is you pay the repeater if you are a tax team in 3 of the 4 most recent years. So if we have two tax years in 24/25, and 25/26, then if we enter the tax in 26/27 or 27/28 we pay repeater tax in that year.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2024/11/nba-repeater-taxpayer-tracker.html#:~:text=In%202024%2F25%2C%20those%20standard,higher%20than%20the%20standard%20rates.

[minimus]

I love NAW, but his best game is complimentary role next to high usage guys such as Edwards, it means that 15 mil per year is a bit too much in my opinion, but I would be happy if he finds such deal on the market. So it kind of combination of market (how many teams have money for FAs, how many FAs) and development of MIN season (and postseason) and internal team chemistry. Same for Naz. In my ideal scenario they both get 3-4 yrs deal in MIN: NAWs contract starts around 12 mil per year, Reids contract around 21 mil per year.

[TimberKat]

If we keep DDV, than there is no need for NAW. He is a great story but is role player that basically plays behind Ant and DDV. Money could be better spent elsewhere.

[shrink]

It feels to me like half our wins this season have come from our bench guys, NAW, Naz and before now DDV. I think the team has three strengths - team defense, a rising Ant, and a bench that is superior to most opponents. The fact that we have eight playoff-level, rotation players is needed to make the playoffs and have any success once we get there, when we face teams with only five or six. He is leading the team in +/-, his defense is great, and some small sample, bad shooting games in the last playoffs don’t deter me from hoping we can retain him.

What will his price be? That’s a tough question. He would be a starter on several teams and may get paid as such. He would be the missing piece to a team like DEN or SAC, so since he’s a UFA, there is real risk that he will get better offers in money and opportunity from other teams. That said, he is a role player, and role players don’t always get paid well in the NBA.

Teams can either use cap space or an exception to add a free agent. The projected MLE (average NBA salary) this summer is $14.1, and the tax-payer MLE is $5.7. Many contenders are taxpayers, so I would say $5.7 is the minimum offer he will get. I question if teams offer him $14, though his play this season may change some minds. I don’t think minimus’ expectation of $12 mil is unreasonable, and I would pay it, but I would hope for less.

[TheZachAttack]

I want to bring NAW and Naz back. I think the Wolves strength is their versatility and depth with Ant's ability to make tough shots and draw defenses to him. I think they are finally getting to lineups that are leaning into this more. I am actually a Randle fan and thin he's the 2nd best player on the team, but I think that he's not a good enough isolation scorer and he's holding back a lot of our versatility. I'd like to see the team continue to get more athletic and get more minutes for Shannon/Minott and then develop Rob as a scoring ball handler off the bench when Ant is out of the lineup.

Given what I've seen I'd be willing to take a step back to develop the team in that way. I think this would also allow Jaden to play minutes at the 4, which is in my mind is best position given his lack of development as a shooter and what he's shown as a rebounder. His length is great on both ends and he has good touch around the rim and last year actually was one of the best mid range shooters in the league. I think the Wolves can have a lot of success, even with lesser point of attack defense when we are funneling ball handlers into Jaden/Gobert instead of trying to stay in front of the best ball handlers and scorers (no one can).

As Gobert's contract nears its completion we can try to hunt for a 2nd star and hope that Rob develops into a Herro/Maxey type of guard. I think this allows us to play in a way that unlocks Ant and is a more sustainable way for the Wolves to play if we can lean into versatility, switchability, athleticism, and defense. I think you can also look for a Ty Jerome or Tyus Jones type of point guard after Conley.

I think this would create a lot more positive momentum for the Wolves future, even if it means adjusting from the initial expectations this season.

[minimus]

If we keep DDV, than there is no need for NAW. He is a great story but is role player that basically plays behind Ant and DDV. Money could be better spent elsewhere.

I think we need to keep our young core together: Edwards, Reid, McDaniels, NAW, DDV. I think they can grow together.

[TimberKat]

If we keep DDV, than there is no need for NAW. He is a great story but is role player that basically plays behind Ant and DDV. Money could be better spent elsewhere.

I think we need to keep our young core together: Edwards, Reid, McDaniels, NAW, DDV. I think they can grow together.

Yes, but you have 3 SG out of 5. At this point, I also hope Dilly is another young core.

[winforlose]

If we keep DDV, than there is no need for NAW. He is a great story but is role player that basically plays behind Ant and DDV. Money could be better spent elsewhere.

I think we need to keep our young core together: Edwards, Reid, McDaniels, NAW, DDV. I think they can grow together.

Yes, but you have 3 SG out of 5. At this point, I also hope Dilly is another young core.

TSJ might also be part of this core. He is much cheaper than NAW next year and will be cost controlled in his second deal as well. If the Ant window is 6-7 years than all of those years are TSJ money friendly. TSJ and NAW can both play SF while Ant and DDV are the SGs. The biggest issue with DDV at starting PG is inconsistency. We also tend to experience high turnover rates without a PG as both Ant (6 turnovers last night,) and Randle (4 turnovers last night,) are more prone to turning it over when initiating.

[BlacJacMac]

I think we need to keep our young core together: Edwards, Reid, McDaniels, NAW, DDV. I think they can grow together.

Yes, but you have 3 SG out of 5. At this point, I also hope Dilly is another young core.

TSJ might also be part of this core. He is much cheaper than NAW next year and will be cost controlled in his second deal as well. If the Ant window is 6-7 years than all of those years are TSJ money friendly. TSJ and NAW can both play SF while Ant and DDV are the SGs. The biggest issue with DDV at starting PG is inconsistency. We also tend to experience high turnover rates without a PG as both Ant (6 turnovers last night,) and Randle (4 turnovers last night,) are more prone to turning it over when initiating.

Don't forget Clark. If he can keep hitting 3s, he gives us a super low cost replacement for NAW.

[winforlose]

Yes, but you have 3 SG out of 5. At this point, I also hope Dilly is another young core.

TSJ might also be part of this core. He is much cheaper than NAW next year and will be cost controlled in his second deal as well. If the Ant window is 6-7 years than all of those years are TSJ money friendly. TSJ and NAW can both play SF while Ant and DDV are the SGs. The biggest issue with DDV at starting PG is inconsistency. We also tend to experience high turnover rates without a PG as both Ant (6 turnovers last night,) and Randle (4 turnovers last night,) are more prone to turning it over when initiating.

Don't forget Clark. If he can keep hitting 3s, he gives us a super low cost replacement for NAW.

He would be 3rd string. TSJ is much better than him at offense, and I have no idea about the defensive delta but I imagine it isn’t that great. We are thin at the PG and C, without Randle we are quasi thin at PF as well. Putting resources into NAW at the wing seems counter productive. Especially after a game like last night. NAW might win you 3 or 4 games a season, but he is just as likely to lose at least that many with 3 of 10 shooting and 1 of 7 on open 3s as well.

[BlacJacMac]

TSJ might also be part of this core. He is much cheaper than NAW next year and will be cost controlled in his second deal as well. If the Ant window is 6-7 years than all of those years are TSJ money friendly. TSJ and NAW can both play SF while Ant and DDV are the SGs. The biggest issue with DDV at starting PG is inconsistency. We also tend to experience high turnover rates without a PG as both Ant (6 turnovers last night,) and Randle (4 turnovers last night,) are more prone to turning it over when initiating.

Don't forget Clark. If he can keep hitting 3s, he gives us a super low cost replacement for NAW.

He would be 3rd string. TSJ is much better than him at offense, and I have no idea about the defensive delta but I imagine it isn’t that great. We are thin at the PG and C, without Randle we are quasi thin at PF as well. Putting resources into NAW at the wing seems counter productive. Especially after a game like last night. NAW might win you 3 or 4 games a season, but he is just as likely to lose at least that many with 3 of 10 shooting and 1 of 7 on open 3s as well.

I'm talking about Clark taking NAW's role at a massively reduced price tag. 3&D wing.

I'm not automatically putting TSJ ahead of him until I see them both at the NBA level and in the roles they would have with the big club.

TSJ was an incredibly high usage player in college and we're seeing in the GLeague that won't be his role. It'll be interesting to see what translates and what doesn't. Can he be a complimentary scorer on a Playoff team?

[winforlose]

Don't forget Clark. If he can keep hitting 3s, he gives us a super low cost replacement for NAW.

He would be 3rd string. TSJ is much better than him at offense, and I have no idea about the defensive delta but I imagine it isn’t that great. We are thin at the PG and C, without Randle we are quasi thin at PF as well. Putting resources into NAW at the wing seems counter productive. Especially after a game like last night. NAW might win you 3 or 4 games a season, but he is just as likely to lose at least that many with 3 of 10 shooting and 1 of 7 on open 3s as well.

I'm talking about Clark taking NAW's role at a massively reduced price tag. 3&D wing.

I'm not automatically putting TSJ ahead of him until I see them both at the NBA level and in the roles they would have with the big club.

TSJ was an incredibly high usage player in college and we're seeing in the GLeague that won't be his role. It'll be interesting to see what translates and what doesn't. Can he be a complimentary scorer on a Playoff team?

Problem is the trade deadline is coming up and we don’t know what TSJ or Clark can do.