Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[Neeva]

Way too go for Miami, Butler isn’t getting that good of a return, he’s almost washed.

[BlacJacMac]

This one came REALLY close...barely worked. Not sure on the draft picks.

Mia in: Randle, Washington, Jaden Hardy, 2 Dal FRP
Mia out: Butler, Jovic, Burks

Dal in: Butler, Jovic, Burks
Dal out: Thompson, Kleber, Lively II, 3 FRP

Min in: Thompson, Kleber, Lively II, Dal FRP
MN out: Randle
Waive 2 (Ingles and Dozier?)

*You could also exchange Marshall and Exum for Kleber*

That would be 2025, 2032 and 2034...

[cmoss84]

This one came REALLY close...barely worked. Not sure on the draft picks.

Mia in: Randle, Washington, Jaden Hardy, 2 Dal FRP
Mia out: Butler, Jovic, Burks

Dal in: Butler, Jovic, Burks
Dal out: Thompson, Kleber, Lively II, 3 FRP

Min in: Thompson, Kleber, Lively II, Dal FRP
MN out: Randle
Waive 2 (Ingles and Dozier?)

*You could also exchange Marshall and Exum for Kleber*

That would be 2025, 2032 and 2034...

Like I said...more worried about the players and salaries. Draft picks can be whatever...
Maybe Miami gets '25 and we get Marshall and Exum instead of Kleber with no draft picks attached.

[Norseman79]

You want to do a trade, here's the only way I'm being part of helping Dallas...

Miami out: Butler, Robinson, Jovic, Washington
In: Randle, Thompson, Washington, Shannon Jr

Dallas out: Lively, Kleber, Washington, Thompson
In: Butler

MN out: Randle, Shannon
In: Lively, Jovic, Robinson, Kleber

I would probably try to add another team to send Kleber and fill to for a PG.

Conley, NAW
Ant, DD
McDaniels, Robinson
Reid, Jovic
Gobert, Lively

[shrink]

3 for one means a ton of dead cap which is super taxed. To even properly simulate it you need to be able to move Dozier and Jingles or Dozier and Garza (more likely Jingles,) which could mess it up.

No. Payroll is payroll. We are already paying the tax for having Dozier and Garza on the books, whether they play or are cut.

This deal cuts our overall payroll (it has to, to be legal), so it reduces lux tax.

[shrink]

I think the most difficult part for Dallas is that Klay pretty much needs to be included in a Jimmy trade for salary reasons. He is too slow to defend, turns 35 in two months, and is on the books for three years, $50 mil. Worse, as a future HOF, he doesn’t think he should come off the bench. I think we’d need to avoid that contract.

Also, they really, really love Lively, and think he will be a star. I’d be happy to get him, but I doubt DAL would include him, even to get a Jimmy deal through.

[winforlose]

3 for one means a ton of dead cap which is super taxed. To even properly simulate it you need to be able to move Dozier and Jingles or Dozier and Garza (more likely Jingles,) which could mess it up.

No. Payroll is payroll. We are already paying the tax for having Dozier and Garza on the books, whether they play or are cut.

This deal cuts our overall payroll (it has to, to be legal), so it reduces lux tax.

You’re right. If Randle is making 33 and we take back 32, we do need to cut two players to make room but that just means the money is decentralized in the 3. Though we do add to our dead cap number as now your paying Ingles, Dozier, and KBD to not play for us.

[winforlose]

I think the most difficult part for Dallas is that Klay pretty much needs to be included in a Jimmy trade for salary reasons. He is too slow to defend, turns 35 in two months, and is on the books for three years, $50 mil. Worse, as a future HOF, he doesn’t think he should come off the bench. I think we’d need to avoid that contract.

Also, they really, really love Lively, and think he will be a star. I’d be happy to get him, but I doubt DAL would include him, even to get a Jimmy deal through.

Back when Dallas got Klay I said the only winners in the deal are the other teams in the league who get to play against a weakened Dallas.

[shrink]

I don’t think I’ve done a very good job explaining why NAW could be so expensive, so let me do so in incremental numbers.

Suppose you guys are right, and MIN’s willing to spend up to just under the second apron. Let’s also suppose you’re right that NAW’s salary is $15 mil, and MIN is debating whether to add an additional $13 mil to the payroll with NAW’s $15 vs a vet min guy at $2.

Next season the luxury threshold is projected to be $187.9 mil, and the second apron starts at $207.8 mi. So the payroll for the team with NAW is $207.8, and the one with the vet min player is $194.8 ($13 mil less). [for the record, the vet min scenario keeps the payroll under 1st apron is at $195.9, and avoids those restrictions as well.]

With NAW, we are $20 mil over the lux, and pay $67 mil in luxury taxes. With the Free Agent, we are $7 mil over and pay $18.

So the true cost of NAW would be his $13 mil more in salary, plus $49 mil more in lux taxes, plus not escaping first apron restrictions. It is hard to justify $62 mil to any owner, especially for a player that comes off the bench. But who knows? The reason we have apron rules is that some owners didn’t care about lux taxes for bench players, if they were close to a championship.

[cmoss84]

DD on his current contract
OR
NAW on his next contract?

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Actually i do think we have no others choices than trading Randle at the deadline. Cost way too much and we just can't afford pay him. Keeping NAW and NAZ will already be quite difficult.

[cmoss84]

You want to do a trade, here's the only way I'm being part of helping Dallas...

Miami out: Butler, Robinson, Jovic, Washington
In: Randle, Thompson, Washington, Shannon Jr

Dallas out: Lively, Kleber, Washington, Thompson
In: Butler

MN out: Randle, Shannon
In: Lively, Jovic, Robinson, Kleber

I would probably try to add another team to send Kleber and fill to for a PG.

Conley, NAW
Ant, DD
McDaniels, Robinson
Reid, Jovic
Gobert, Lively

You wouldn't rather have Lively, Thompson, Exum, and Marshall for just Randle?

[winforlose]

I don’t think I’ve done a very good job explaining why NAW could be so expensive, so let me do so in incremental numbers.

Suppose you guys are right, and MIN’s willing to spend up to just under the second apron. Let’s also suppose you’re right that NAW’s salary is $15 mil, and MIN is debating whether to add an additional $13 mil to the payroll with NAW’s $15 vs a vet min guy at $2.

Next season the luxury threshold is projected to be $187.9 mil, and the second apron starts at $207.8 mi. So the payroll for the team with NAW is $207.8, and the one with the vet min player is $194.8 ($13 mil less). [for the record, the vet min scenario keeps the payroll under 1st apron is at $195.9, and avoids those restrictions as well.]

With NAW, we are $20 mil over the lux, and pay $67 mil in luxury taxes. With the Free Agent, we are $7 mil over and pay $18.

So the true cost of NAW would be his $13 mil more in salary, plus $49 mil more in lux taxes, plus not escaping first apron restrictions. It is hard to justify $62 mil to any owner, especially for a player that comes off the bench. But who knows? The reason we have apron rules is that some owners didn’t care about lux taxes for bench players, if they were close to a championship.

Let’s look at this another way. I am posting a link below to all the teams salaries for this season. Please notice that all the teams at the top of the payroll are trying to win something. You want to contend, you are likely in the tax. Profitability in the short term vs long term value gain is the debate. The question is which owners do we have and can they afford to operate, at or near a loss? Or worse, can they take a big loss in the short term for increased value do the franchise in the long term?


https://hoopshype.com/salaries/

[Norseman79]

You want to do a trade, here's the only way I'm being part of helping Dallas...

Miami out: Butler, Robinson, Jovic, Washington
In: Randle, Thompson, Washington, Shannon Jr

Dallas out: Lively, Kleber, Washington, Thompson
In: Butler

MN out: Randle, Shannon
In: Lively, Jovic, Robinson, Kleber

I would probably try to add another team to send Kleber and fill to for a PG.

Conley, NAW
Ant, DD
McDaniels, Robinson
Reid, Jovic
Gobert, Lively

You wouldn't rather have Lively, Thompson, Exum, and Marshall for just Randle?

No, Lively yes, Robinson is a legit sized SF and can shoot. Jovic is a young pf with good size and upside, Kleber is just trade bait or extra fouls in playoffs. Shannon isn't going to play any time soon anyway

[shrink]

DD on his current contract
OR
NAW on his next contract?

I think it’s DiVincenzo.

First, we know that DDV is a value contract. We have no idea if some other team offers NAW a giant deal.

Second, along the same lines, we have control of DDV already. If we traded him away at the deadline in February, there is no guarantee we could sign NAW to replace him in July. And remember, NAW is an Unrestricted Free Agent, not a restricted free agent, where we’d get to match another team’s offer and just keep him.

Also, while NAW has outplayed DDV so far, this team really needs an elite movement shooter to solve multiple offensive problems in Finch’s offense, and Donte is one of the best in the world. The far inferior Mike Beasley helped us zing at times, with a lesser talented team.

[shrink]

I don’t think I’ve done a very good job explaining why NAW could be so expensive, so let me do so in incremental numbers.

Suppose you guys are right, and MIN’s willing to spend up to just under the second apron. Let’s also suppose you’re right that NAW’s salary is $15 mil, and MIN is debating whether to add an additional $13 mil to the payroll with NAW’s $15 vs a vet min guy at $2.

Next season the luxury threshold is projected to be $187.9 mil, and the second apron starts at $207.8 mi. So the payroll for the team with NAW is $207.8, and the one with the vet min player is $194.8 ($13 mil less). [for the record, the vet min scenario keeps the payroll under 1st apron is at $195.9, and avoids those restrictions as well.]

With NAW, we are $20 mil over the lux, and pay $67 mil in luxury taxes. With the Free Agent, we are $7 mil over and pay $18.

So the true cost of NAW would be his $13 mil more in salary, plus $49 mil more in lux taxes, plus not escaping first apron restrictions. It is hard to justify $62 mil to any owner, especially for a player that comes off the bench. But who knows? The reason we have apron rules is that some owners didn’t care about lux taxes for bench players, if they were close to a championship.

Let’s look at this another way. I am posting a link below to all the teams salaries for this season. Please notice that all the teams at the top of the payroll are trying to win something. You want to contend, you are likely in the tax. Profitability in the short term vs long term value gain is the debate. The question is which owners do we have and can they afford to operate, at or near a loss? Or worse, can they take a big loss in the short term for increased value do the franchise in the long term?

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/

Yes, contenders generally pay “some” lux. However, the amount of lux they are willing to pay varies, and every additional salary penalizes them more and more, as the lux rates rise for every extra $5+ mil your payroll is over the lux threshold. You’ll also note that several contenders (like LAC and GSW) from the last couple years had to jump down in payroll because lux taxes and repeater taxes (and now apron rules) just get too crazy.

I’m obviously not saying ownership won’t pay lux taxes this year and next. This year, our total payroll plus lux penalties is close to $300 million. What I’m saying is that we already have a lot of salary locked in,and every additional contract we sign has an ever-more punitive expense attached to it. At some point, owners and GMs look at a bench player, and have to justify if that guy is worth the real dollars it will cost the owner to add him.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tax/_/year/2024/sort/tax_total

[winforlose]

I don’t think I’ve done a very good job explaining why NAW could be so expensive, so let me do so in incremental numbers.

Suppose you guys are right, and MIN’s willing to spend up to just under the second apron. Let’s also suppose you’re right that NAW’s salary is $15 mil, and MIN is debating whether to add an additional $13 mil to the payroll with NAW’s $15 vs a vet min guy at $2.

Next season the luxury threshold is projected to be $187.9 mil, and the second apron starts at $207.8 mi. So the payroll for the team with NAW is $207.8, and the one with the vet min player is $194.8 ($13 mil less). [for the record, the vet min scenario keeps the payroll under 1st apron is at $195.9, and avoids those restrictions as well.]

With NAW, we are $20 mil over the lux, and pay $67 mil in luxury taxes. With the Free Agent, we are $7 mil over and pay $18.

So the true cost of NAW would be his $13 mil more in salary, plus $49 mil more in lux taxes, plus not escaping first apron restrictions. It is hard to justify $62 mil to any owner, especially for a player that comes off the bench. But who knows? The reason we have apron rules is that some owners didn’t care about lux taxes for bench players, if they were close to a championship.

Let’s look at this another way. I am posting a link below to all the teams salaries for this season. Please notice that all the teams at the top of the payroll are trying to win something. You want to contend, you are likely in the tax. Profitability in the short term vs long term value gain is the debate. The question is which owners do we have and can they afford to operate, at or near a loss? Or worse, can they take a big loss in the short term for increased value do the franchise in the long term?

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/

Yes, contenders generally pay “some” lux. However, the amount of lux varies, and every additional salary penalizes you more and more, as the rates rise. You’ll also note that several contenders (like LAC and GSW) from the last couple years had to jump down in payroll because lux taxes and repeater taxes (and now apron rules) just get too crazy.

I’m obviously not saying ownership won’t pay lux taxes this year and next. This year, our total payroll plus lux penalties is close to $300 million. What I’m saying is that we already have a lot of salary locked in,and every additional contract we sign has an ever-more punitive expense attached to it. At some point, owners and GMs look at a bench player, and have to justify if that guy is worth the real dollars it will cost the owner to add him.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tax/_/year/2024/sort/tax_total

You’re so right that you actually become wrong. I know that sounds silly, but the truth is it takes money to make money. A new stadium is a revenue source, a 2 team expansion is a revenue source, the new TV money is a revenue source, sold out high priced tickets (especially season tickets,) are a revenue source. The Wolves cannot depend on big market support to stay profitable. Look at ticket and Merch sales since we got good compared to when we sucked. If you go cheap (trading KAT,) you lose money trying to save money. If we do this here and there the value will diminish. Too much and the value will evaporate.

[shrink]

Let’s look at this another way. I am posting a link below to all the teams salaries for this season. Please notice that all the teams at the top of the payroll are trying to win something. You want to contend, you are likely in the tax. Profitability in the short term vs long term value gain is the debate. The question is which owners do we have and can they afford to operate, at or near a loss? Or worse, can they take a big loss in the short term for increased value do the franchise in the long term?

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/

Yes, contenders generally pay “some” lux. However, the amount of lux varies, and every additional salary penalizes you more and more, as the rates rise. You’ll also note that several contenders (like LAC and GSW) from the last couple years had to jump down in payroll because lux taxes and repeater taxes (and now apron rules) just get too crazy.

I’m obviously not saying ownership won’t pay lux taxes this year and next. This year, our total payroll plus lux penalties is close to $300 million. What I’m saying is that we already have a lot of salary locked in,and every additional contract we sign has an ever-more punitive expense attached to it. At some point, owners and GMs look at a bench player, and have to justify if that guy is worth the real dollars it will cost the owner to add him.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tax/_/year/2024/sort/tax_total

You’re so right that you actually become wrong. I know that sounds silly, but the truth is it takes money to make money. A new stadium is a revenue source, a 2 team expansion is a revenue source, the new TV money is a revenue source, sold out high priced tickets (especially season tickets,) are a revenue source. The Wolves cannot depend on big market support to stay profitable. Look at ticket and Merch sales since we got good compared to when we sucked. If you go cheap (trading KAT,) you lose money trying to save money. If we do this here and there the value will diminish. Too much and the value will evaporate.

This is way too much hand-waving generalities for me.

We will probably spend over the lux. We don’t know by how much. No one can say we’ll certainly pay huge lux taxes up to the apron because we can’t afford to lose NAW.

The math of the luxury tax rules in the CBA make it more and more painful to add salary. That’s a real life constraint, and we can’t just ignore that saying that ownership will pay because that extra player will make the business decision worth it.

(And for the record, I have followed our revenues since when we sucked. They still weren’t very good last year, even with one of the most successful seasons in franchise history. We were 27th in revenues with $305 mil. The bottom line has to change).

[Klomp]

Let’s look at this another way. I am posting a link below to all the teams salaries for this season. Please notice that all the teams at the top of the payroll are trying to win something. You want to contend, you are likely in the tax. Profitability in the short term vs long term value gain is the debate. The question is which owners do we have and can they afford to operate, at or near a loss? Or worse, can they take a big loss in the short term for increased value do the franchise in the long term?

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/

Yes, contenders generally pay “some” lux. However, the amount of lux varies, and every additional salary penalizes you more and more, as the rates rise. You’ll also note that several contenders (like LAC and GSW) from the last couple years had to jump down in payroll because lux taxes and repeater taxes (and now apron rules) just get too crazy.

I’m obviously not saying ownership won’t pay lux taxes this year and next. This year, our total payroll plus lux penalties is close to $300 million. What I’m saying is that we already have a lot of salary locked in,and every additional contract we sign has an ever-more punitive expense attached to it. At some point, owners and GMs look at a bench player, and have to justify if that guy is worth the real dollars it will cost the owner to add him.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/tax/_/year/2024/sort/tax_total

You’re so right that you actually become wrong. I know that sounds silly, but the truth is it takes money to make money. A new stadium is a revenue source, a 2 team expansion is a revenue source, the new TV money is a revenue source, sold out high priced tickets (especially season tickets,) are a revenue source. The Wolves cannot depend on big market support to stay profitable. Look at ticket and Merch sales since we got good compared to when we sucked. If you go cheap (trading KAT,) you lose money trying to save money. If we do this here and there the value will diminish. Too much and the value will evaporate.

But the reality is....we aren't really making as much money relative to our success because of our arena situation. That, our market, etc. will always hold us back compared to other franchise. Our revenue ceiling is currently probably 15th-20th.

[Klomp]

I have a good feeling that Tim is going to be very active. I think everyone expects it to be Randle and/or Alexander-Walker, but I've been thinking about some left-field ideas like McDaniels or DiVincenzo.