Playoff Race and Scoreboard Watching

[shrink]

Here are the odds for seeding after yesterdays games...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

Beautiful to see a 76% chance of avoiding the Play In Tournament, while the rest are far worse, including DEN!

[Klomp]

Did we break the Nuggets again? With Russ’ help?

That’s four straight losses, (vs MIN, vs SAS, @GSW, vs IND)

I think Murray being out gets more credit

I think it might be said we broke Russ, which in turn helped break the Nuggets. For most of the season, Russ has been a palatable replacement for Murray. But he's been mostly bad since his late game collapse I think.

[Klomp]

Would you rather position yourself to face the Lakers or the Thunder in the second round?

I fear the Thunder if they get the SGA whistle. But I watched the refs swallow that whistle yesterday and the Thunder got killed. I believe we are favored in any game with honest officiating. But asking me would I rather they screw us to help Luka or SGA, I would rather they help Ant.

In general, it seems like refs swallow whistles more in the playoffs.

[Biff Cooper]

2023-24: Clippers, Mavericks, Suns and Pelicans all finished within just a two-game difference for 4th through 7th ahead of the play-in (New Orleans dropped to 8th in play-in).
2022-23: Clippers, Warriors, Lakers, Timberwolves, Pelicans finished within 2 games of each other for 5th through 9th (Pelicans dropped to 10th in play-in).

Yes - it has been a couple years now in the west where at least one undeserving team gets a shot at a playoff spot. It does probably help reduce tanking - which is the primary intent... It does suck that one of the teams that finishes 7 or 8 is going to have a one game play-in game against a team 8-10 games behind them in the standings. That seems like an unintended consequence of what they are trying to do. When they started the play-in a team needed to be within 4 games of the other team for the play-in to occur, and they purposely went away from that to better battle tanking.

[Biff Cooper]

Would you rather position yourself to face the Lakers or the Thunder in the second round?

I fear the Thunder if they get the SGA whistle. But I watched the refs swallow that whistle yesterday and the Thunder got killed. I believe we are favored in any game with honest officiating. But asking me would I rather they screw us to help Luka or SGA, I would rather they help Ant.

In general, it seems like refs swallow whistles more in the playoffs.

I'd still rather play the Lakers than the Thunder. The Lakers are not a very deep team, and they won't be able to hide Luka defensively on KAT this season. The Thunder have some offensive flaws, but they are a defensive juggernaut.

[younggunsmn]

This is a year where the play-in makes me sick to my stomach.
There will be 2 teams in the West who would have finished 4th or 5th in the East, who finished 8-10 games over the 9th and 10th place teams, who are going to have to play single elimination games just to get into the playoffs.

If the league is going to continue the play-in, they should just eliminate conference restrictions and go to a 16 team seeded bracket where the top 14 teams are guaranteed spots with the next 6 playing a play-in tournament for the last 2 spots.

15-16 play for one spot,

17-20 play 2 games for the right to play the loser of 15-16 for the other spot.
Or maybe you only go as deep as 17-18 and they play one game.


If they don't want to go strict conferences,
They can seed the top 12 teams by conference on each side of the bracket (6 each)

Teams finishing 13th and 14th in the standings will be seeded as wild cards as the 7th seed on each side of the bracket, and the play-n teams seeded 8th on each side of the bracket.

But I like just smashing the conference boundaries better altogether, although it runs the risk of having 2 teams from the same geographic area in the Finals, which is something the league would want to avoid.

We play 30 games against the weaker conference and 52 games against the stronger conference. If you drop the boundaries you will have a lot of West vs West championships. This is bad because A) it disengages fans (they see a matchup they may have seen four times already another 4-7, and don’t get to see Eastern conference teams as much, especially problematic for fans in the East,) and B) It proves wins in the East don’t mean as much. The Pistons for example would not be 45+ if they had to face the West 20+ more times.

I mean the NFL and MLB don't have geography based conferences and they do alright.
Is having a west vs west championship worse than having a conferences finals be the real NBA finals because the 2 best teams are playing early?

If the NBA expands this is what I'd like to see:

Atlantic
Boston
NY
BRK
Phi

Central
MIN
MIL
CHI
DET

Great Lakes
Cleveland
Indiana
Toronto
Washington

Southeast
Miami
Orlando
Atlanta
Charlotte

Northwest
Seattle
Portland
GSW
Sac

Southwest
LAL
LAC
PHX
Las Vegas

Mountain
Denver
Utah
OKC
Memphis

South
Dallas
Houston
San Antonio
New Orleans

The west getting both expansion teams should redress the balance of power a little bit.
2X games each vs opposite confernce (32),
4X vs division opponents (12)
3X vs non-divsion conference opponents (36)

2 games vs random mid-season tournament opponent based on record.

[Klomp]

I mean the NFL and MLB don't have geography based conferences and they do alright.

Semantics, based on how the three entities were formed.

MLB and NFL both had mergers, while the NBA had consolidation/expansion. While they could have overhauled the league structures, it made little sense since both had their geographical splits set up as divisions.

[winforlose]

Pistons lose, good for us. Mavs have more incentive to beat LAL, and we are likely to get 17.

[Ethomasp31]

Pistons lose, good for us. Mavs have more incentive to beat LAL, and we are likely to get 17.

Plus maybe Bucks sit Giannis another game since they are two up in the loss column and have the tie-breaker. He's been fighting a bad shoulder. The last two games of the season the Bucks have a home and home with the Pistons. The Pistons have NYK and then the two games with the Bucks. My guess is Giannis plays tomorrow night, but who knows. Maybe the Bucks give him another two days off after the Pistons loss.

East probable matchups

3 Knicks vs 6 Pistons
4 Pacers vs 5 Bucks

[TimberKat]

Pistons lose, good for us. Mavs have more incentive to beat LAL, and we are likely to get 17.

Plus maybe Bucks sit Giannis another game since they are two up in the loss column and have the tie-breaker. He's been fighting a bad shoulder. The last two games of the season the Bucks have a home and home with the Pistons. The Pistons have NYK and then the two games with the Bucks. My guess is Giannis plays tomorrow night, but who knows. Maybe the Bucks give him another two days off after the Pistons loss.

East probable matchups

3 Knicks vs 6 Pistons
4 Pacers vs 5 Bucks

What happened when we play a Bucks team without Giannis and Dame the last time? Maybe Giannis should play

[winforlose]

Pistons lose, good for us. Mavs have more incentive to beat LAL, and we are likely to get 17.

Plus maybe Bucks sit Giannis another game since they are two up in the loss column and have the tie-breaker. He's been fighting a bad shoulder. The last two games of the season the Bucks have a home and home with the Pistons. The Pistons have NYK and then the two games with the Bucks. My guess is Giannis plays tomorrow night, but who knows. Maybe the Bucks give him another two days off after the Pistons loss.

East probable matchups

3 Knicks vs 6 Pistons
4 Pacers vs 5 Bucks

What happened when we play a Bucks team without Giannis and Dame the last time? Maybe Giannis should play

Not sure it will matter. According to Dane Moore the team follows Ant’s lead. If he decides not to bother we lose. If he decides to try, then we still play incredibly inconsistently, but we have a better chance .

[younggunsmn]

I mean the NFL and MLB don't have geography based conferences and they do alright.

Semantics, based on how the three entities were formed.

MLB and NFL both had mergers, while the NBA had consolidation/expansion. While they could have overhauled the league structures, it made little sense since both had their geographical splits set up as divisions.

It makes quite a difference. And the NBA had the NBA/ABA merger to deal with and didnt go the same route with that like the NFL did.
MLB used to have 3 NYC teams and two of them were moved west, since before the 1960s the West Coast was economically vastly underdeveloped compared to today.

Imagine the Jets/Giants/Eagles/Patriots all in the same conference.
Or Yankess/Mets/Red Sox and Dodgers/Angels/Giants/Padres.
Or Cubs/White Sox.

Now imagine the Lakers and Clippers or Warriors getting split into separate conferences, the Knicks and Nets or Celtics.

Brewers used to be in the AL too and Twins lost that rivalry.

I don't know which system is better.
The NBA East/West split promotes better coastal cohesion and geographic rivalries but the NFL has vastly better market parity, although much of that is due to their superior CBA. It would be weird if all the NFC games started at noon and all the AFC games started at 3 because all the teams were split east/west.

[younggunsmn]

Sacramento and Dallas have several games against the teams we are fighting for seeding with, but all both have to play for is home court in the play-in game. Be super helpful to get at least one upset from one of those 2 teams if not a couple.

[shrink]

April 8

#3 LAL (48-30). 0.0 GB

#4 DEN (47-32). 1.5 GB

#5 LAC (46-32). 2.0 GB
#6 GSW (46-32). 2.0 GB
#7 MIN (46-32). 2.0 GB
#8 MEM (46-32). 2.0 GB

LAL: @OKC, @DAL (btb), vsHOU, @POR
DEN: @SAC, vsMEM, @HOU
LAC: vsSAS, vsHOU (btb), @SAC, @GSW
GSW: @PHX, vsSAS (btb), @POR, vsLAC
MIN: @MIL, @MEM, vsBRK (btb), vsUTA
MEM: @CHA, vsMIN, @DEN (btb), vsDAL

Games Tuesday, April 8

6:00 PM: MEM (46-32) @ CHA (19-59). MEM favored by 14.5
7:00 PM: MIN (46-32) @ MIL (44-34). MIN favored by 4.5
7:00 PM: LAL (48-30) @ OKC (64-14). OKC favored by 14.5
9:00 PM: GSW (46-32) @ PHX (35-43). GSW favored by 7.5. TNT, TruTV, MAX
9:30 PM: SAS (32-46) @ LAC (46-32). LAC favored by 12.5

[shrink]

Interesting to see OKC favored by so much over the Lakers. Luka and LeBron are both listed as questionable with groin strains, and it looks like Vegas thinks they might just rest them both and focus on their final three opponents.

Dame is out for our game, Giannis is probable. We are favored, but this is a dangerous game in MIL. Aside from LAL, we have the toughest matchup tonight.

[Klomp]

I'm currently resigned to the fact that I'm expecting the field to be (in no order) OKC, Minnesota, Denver, and Memphis on one side of the bracket, with the Lakers, Warriors, Clippers and Rockets on the other side.

[TimberKat]

I'm currently resigned to the fact that I'm expecting the field to be (in no order) OKC, Minnesota, Denver, and Memphis on one side of the bracket, with the Lakers, Warriors, Clippers and Rockets on the other side.

Comes down to tonight and Thursday. If we lose to MEM it's over. Still a little complicated with how HOU will play, MEM will play DEN, and LAC will play GSW.

[Klomp]

I'm currently resigned to the fact that I'm expecting the field to be (in no order) OKC, Minnesota, Denver, and Memphis on one side of the bracket, with the Lakers, Warriors, Clippers and Rockets on the other side.

Comes down to tonight and Thursday. If we lose to MEM it's over. Still a little complicated with how HOU will play, MEM will play DEN, and LAC will play GSW.

What's over?

[TimberKat]

I'm currently resigned to the fact that I'm expecting the field to be (in no order) OKC, Minnesota, Denver, and Memphis on one side of the bracket, with the Lakers, Warriors, Clippers and Rockets on the other side.

Comes down to tonight and Thursday. If we lose to MEM it's over. Still a little complicated with how HOU will play, MEM will play DEN, and LAC will play GSW.

What's over?

I mean we will end up 7th or 8th seed. Likely 8th seed.

[winforlose]

Comes down to tonight and Thursday. If we lose to MEM it's over. Still a little complicated with how HOU will play, MEM will play DEN, and LAC will play GSW.

What's over?

I mean we will end up 7th or 8th seed. Likely 8th seed.

Clippers loss and Denver plays Memphis. There are plenty of pathways to 3-1 and 6th or better, even if we lose to Memphis.