Nick K wrote:wolfen wrote:Nick K wrote:
I think I get the comp and if true that is very good value at 11. I think very highly of Taj. PJ can shoot the 3 very well. Taj not so . Taj is better inside but that doesn't mean PJ can't improve there. Cal sure knows talent.i
Not stirring things up, but I disagree on the Taj comp. If you want to compare him to a timber-bull then the better comp is Deng, and a younger Deng. PJW has a much more dynamic game than Taj, most notably his ability to handle the ball, he's a very good passer and initiator, and will be a plus shooter from the perimeter. They do have similarities in size, around 6-8 with 7-2 wingspans, both around 230 pounds, but PJW has additional wing characteristics that Taj just doesn't. Let's not forget, Deng is 6-9 220 with a wingspan over 7 feet as well. Very similar size and build. Deng is a 3 who can play the 4, PJ is a 4 who can play the 3, and probably some 5 in small ball situations.
As far as upside, it's there. He was a 5 star recruit and was always one of the top players during the showcase games (sometimes the best) with the other high profile recruits coming out of highschool. For me, he's not just the safest pick at 11, but has a higher upside than Clarke or Hachimura.
I think your critique is a good one. I think NAW is a safer pick at 11 but I like PJW too. My thinking is we have Saric on a good contract and an up and comer in KBD. Power forwards seem to be a dime a dozen. What do we do about our mediocre at best guard play. Guards are so important in today's NBA. Shouldn't we address that first?
PJW and NAW are so close for me. I do agree that guard is a greater need and of greater importance. First and foremost we need a PG, we also need scoring punch from the backcourt. Reality is that Wiggins is here for the long haul, plays the 2, and so does Okogie. The most likely outcome for NAW is a 2 who can play the 1, and will be a guy who wouldn't be a starter for you right out of the gate. This seems to be the consensus out there with draft prognosticators on NAW, that he'll be a combo 2, good facilitator, who can also play the point, and will hit the 3 and score in other ways.
Should we force it and make him a full time PG? I don't know, that is a tough call. You want a player to be used in his most effective role and I'm not sure that full time PG is that for NAW, it could be, but I'm not sure. He's awfully good OFF the ball too. Hitting catch and shoot 3's, scoring on cuts to the hoop, facilitating from the wing, things he does when he's not playing PG. Does he have the potential to be a good starting NBA PG? I think yes, but again, I think that goes against the general draft expert general consensus. The best scenario for NAW would be that he is your starting 2 guard alongside a scoring PG. Another reason I want Bowman in round 2, I think those 2 would work off of one another like peas and carrots. But there's so many hens in the house with Wigs and Okogie at the 2. I suppose it would be wise to take it slow for a year and see what Wigs can do under the new regime, even if we draft NAW and have Okogie.
As far as PF's, I think Saric's best role is off the bench, and I think he'll REALLY excel under the new regime. Sure it's fun to root for KBD, but we can't count on him or include him as a dependable player, certainly he's not someone where you'd say "don't draft this guy, we've got KBD". On a very good team I'm not sure he's in the rotation, let's be honest. Washington - between he and NAW, the talent level and potential is very similar, but Wash has one advantage over NAW - the NBA body. He's got good size to guard starting 4's and enough quickness and excellent wingspan to switch on the perimeter and disrupt passing lanes with that length as well. I don't see a scenario where a team could ever game plan to take advantage of Washington on the defensive end. If NAW is playing the 2, you've got potential for some of the bigger and stronger 2's to take advantage of him.