Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[Klomp]

I like Randle for Jerami Grant.

Portland is tanking anyway, so Randle and his deal
are a good fit. Grant makes 30 million and is under control until 27/28 at 36 million. That’s great value!

I think the hope would be that we can find a better-fitting piece than Grant. I don't hate the fit, but I don't love it.

[shrink]

MIN IN: Isaiah Stewart + Jaden Ivey
MIN OUT: Randle + Dillingham

DET IN: Rebuild Assets from Randle, Dillingham
DET OUT: Isaiah Stewart + Jaden Ivey

CONTENDER IN: Randle
CONTENDER OUT: Rebuild Assets from Randle

(Legally MIN does the Dilly part as a second trade into DET’s TPE. Trade Value can balance by altering protections on DET pick.)

So this speeds up the timeline for MIN, and pushes it back for DET and helps this year’s tank. Ivey gets $10 mil next year, then is a free agent, and Stewart makes $15 mil a year for the next few years. Both are young and fit Ant’s timeline (23 and 22), and could be eventual replacements for Conley and Gobert as they age out. This deal cuts $16.5 mil in MIN payroll this year, but may be more expensive in the future when Randle expired and Dillingham had several years left on his rookie scale. Thoughts?

[Klomp]

I have same feelings. I am not so impressed with Smith because he is making 8mil, but he has developed his body and can play backup C.

The biggest difference between Lonzo Ball and Randle to me is narrative and marketing around trade. Lonzo Ball can be story of return and hardworking. Randle was advertised as All Star talent who played well for Finch in NOP. So if Ball fails it is not because he does not try hard, like Randle. IMO is is low risk, high reward trade. I believe that we already have two top-10 2025 FA in terms of talent/effort/age: Naz Reid and NAW. Both have been loyal to MIN, so it should be our top priority to keep them.

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As much as I want to win-now, after WCF, I think that TC and Finch should be more focused about next season, e.g. develop Edwards, McDaniels, Minott, Reid, NAW and first of all Dillingham. I feel like some Randle minutes come as intention to increase his trade value. So let say Randle will be traded via sign-and-trade and MIN get SRP for facilitating it. Then re-sign Reid (20-25 mil AAV), NAW (10-15 mil AAV). Then let say Lonzo Ball play whole season injury free, I'd re-sign him for similarly structured contract to Jonathan Isaac: 1 year fully guaranteed + 1 year partially guaranteed, 2 years non guaranteed = 40 mil (10 mil AAV). I can see why Ball might re-sign here:

- this team with him healthy can be in top-4 in West
- he and Edwards can build a perfect chemistry, as they compliment each other well
- Ball has showed in CHI that he can be part of absolutely elite defensive unit. He played with Caruso in CHI, in MIN he will have McDaniels/NAW/DDV/Edwards. So replacing Randle with Ball is a pretty intriguing shift in defensive mentality
- Randle has been a very important part of our offensive identity. Currently MIN are top-5 in 3PA, a big chunk of them come as result of Randle assists from the paint. Lonzo with repaired knee cant slash, but, I feel like current MIN roster lacks facilitators in general, I mean guys who can make simple pass, beat pressure, organise offense. Something that McLaughlin, Morris and Anderson could do for us last season. This is a big reason why DDV has been struggling so mightily and cant find any rhythm. Lonzo is a true floor general. Also MIN is 24th in pace, and have been struggling to consistently score in transition and defend in transition. So having someone like Lonzo could help to keep high 3PA, despite losing Randle: Lonzo can facilitate, execute in half court and initiate fastbreaks

Gobert/Smith/Garza
Reid/Minott/Miller
McDaniels/NAW/TJ
Edwards/DDV + Clark
Ball/Dilly/Conley + Nix

I get that trading for Ball would certainly carry some risk in terms of maximizing the Randle "asset", but I think he's the type of connective piece that this Timberwolves iteration is missing.

I think this breakdown is a great synopsis of the Ball situation:

Watch on YouTube

Regarding Smith, he offers us a low-man defender, which the second unit has been searching for. He is young, energetic, and on a relatively cap-friendly contract.

[Klomp]

MIN IN: Isaiah Stewart + Jaden Ivey
MIN OUT: Randle + Dillingham

DET IN: Rebuild Assets from Randle, Dillingham
DET OUT: Isaiah Stewart + Jaden Ivey

CONTENDER IN: Randle
CONTENDER OUT: Rebuild Assets from Randle

(Legally MIN does the Dilly part as a second trade into DET’s TPE. Trade Value can balance by altering protections on DET pick.)

So this speeds up the timeline for MIN, and pushes it back for DET and helps this year’s tank. Ivey gets $10 mil next year, then is a free agent, and Stewart makes $15 mil a year for the next few years. Both are young and fit Ant’s timeline (23 and 22), and could be eventual replacements for Conley and Gobert as they age out. This deal cuts $16.5 mil in MIN payroll this year, but may be more expensive in the future when Randle expired and Dillingham had several years left on his rookie scale. Thoughts?

I'll pass. I like Dillingham too much.

[Klomp]

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[cmoss84]

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If Finch is still in love with Ball...here's kind of a weird one that gets us a couple picks and into the 1st apron:

Chi in: Randle, Sexton, Collier
Chi out: Ball, Williams, white
1st apron hard-capped

Utah in: Jaden, White
Utah out: Sexton, Collier, 2 FRP
under 1st apron

MN in: Ball, Williams, 2 FRP
MN out: Randle, Jaden
1st apron!!
Maybe we would sign Ball to a short term prove it deal? Could definitely sign NAW and NAZ.

[winforlose]

One other sign that points to a higher likelihood of a Randle trade is that in his time here, Connelly has shown that he is not afraid to move off of his "mistakes" quickly.

Botching the KAT trade is more than just a mistake. Sports FOs are all short memory operations. The Butler trade destroyed Thibs. He lost his GM powers, lost his coaching job, had to wait years for another HC job and still doesn’t have the power he had here. This is the kind of error that tarnishes TC in a way you wouldn’t otherwise expect. TC will be judged for the Randle trade. If it gets worse so does his career prospects.

[Klomp]

One other sign that points to a higher likelihood of a Randle trade is that in his time here, Connelly has shown that he is not afraid to move off of his "mistakes" quickly.

Botching the KAT trade is more than just a mistake. Sports FOs are all short memory operations. The Butler trade destroyed Thibs. He lost his GM powers, lost his coaching job, had to wait years for another HC job and still doesn’t have the power he had here. This is the kind of error that tarnishes TC in a way you wouldn’t otherwise expect. TC will be judged for the Randle trade. If it gets worse so does his career prospects.

Thibs had zero track record as an executive. Connelly has over a decade worth on his resume, which includes building a championship roster and has three Western Conference Finals seasons to his name in the previous five seasons.

[winforlose]

One other sign that points to a higher likelihood of a Randle trade is that in his time here, Connelly has shown that he is not afraid to move off of his "mistakes" quickly.

Botching the KAT trade is more than just a mistake. Sports FOs are all short memory operations. The Butler trade destroyed Thibs. He lost his GM powers, lost his coaching job, had to wait years for another HC job and still doesn’t have the power he had here. This is the kind of error that tarnishes TC in a way you wouldn’t otherwise expect. TC will be judged for the Randle trade. If it gets worse so does his career prospects.

Thibs had zero track record as an executive. Connelly has over a decade worth on his resume, which includes building a championship roster and has three Western Conference Finals seasons to his name.

True, but TC also passed on Jokic before drafting him in round 2 (midway through.) Joker is the entire reason TC had that legacy.

[shrink]

One other sign that points to a higher likelihood of a Randle trade is that in his time here, Connelly has shown that he is not afraid to move off of his "mistakes" quickly.

Botching the KAT trade is more than just a mistake. Sports FOs are all short memory operations. The Butler trade destroyed Thibs. He lost his GM powers, lost his coaching job, had to wait years for another HC job and still doesn’t have the power he had here. This is the kind of error that tarnishes TC in a way you wouldn’t otherwise expect. TC will be judged for the Randle trade. If it gets worse so does his career prospects.

The evidence is that other front offices didn’t/don’t think the Randle trade is a mistake, since they voted the Timberwolves the fifth best front office after that trade. And that high ranking must come mostly from Connelly, because it’s not like the ownership battle was boosting their ranking.

I think that KAT’s immediate success in NYK has fans overly negative on the trade, forgetting how many said that a supermax deal on a #2 option wasn’t a valuable contract in the age of aprons. We’ll see if there is another wildly negative swing in fans’ perception of Towns if he starts flailing his arms, messes up defensive coverage, or misses games with injury. However, the poll makes me thing that voters inside other front offices didn’t have KAT having significant trade value, or they would have voted him lower.

To be honest, I don’t think we’ll know whether the Randle trade was a good one for a long time. Ditto for Gobert trade, as we wait for those picks to be determined. But that hasn’t stopped fans from making their own pronouncements.

[shrink]

True, but TC also passed on Jokic before drafting him in round 2 (midway through.) Joker is the entire reason TC had that legacy.

This isn’t true either. As a draft wonk who came up through scouting, Connelly is credited for being one of the best draft minds, and has repeatedly found starter and even star talent with non-lottery picks. Among them

#22 Kenneth Faried
#20 Evan Fournier
#27 Rudy Gobert. (Front offices didn’t think made him sell the pick for cash and the #47 pick!)
#41 Nikola Jokic
#19 Malik Beasley
#13 Donovan Mitchell (again, forced to trade)
#51 Monte Morris
#14 Michael Porter Jr (he’s the guy who was willing to gamble on MPJ’s back)

Connelly also has been responsible for selecting some very good coaches and put teams together that were very successful. Personally, my only real complaint is that he likes who he likes, and he tends to overpay to keep those players. However, that might be changing because he negotiated several Timberwolves to take smaller deals to stay with this team - something no GM in Minnesota had ever done before.

[winforlose]

True, but TC also passed on Jokic before drafting him in round 2 (midway through.) Joker is the entire reason TC had that legacy.

This isn’t true either. As a draft wonk who came up through scouting, Connelly is credited for being one of the best draft minds, and has repeatedly found starter and even star talent with non-lottery picks. Among them

#22 Kenneth Faried
#20 Evan Fournier
#27 Rudy Gobert. (Front offices didn’t think made him sell the pick for cash and the #47 pick!)
#41 Nikola Jokic
#19 Malik Beasley
#13 Donovan Mitchell (again, forced to trade)
#51 Monte Morris
#14 Michael Porter Jr (he’s the guy who was willing to gamble on MPJ’s back)

Connelly also has been responsible for selecting some very good coaches and put teams together that were very successful. Personally, my only real complaint is that he likes who he likes, and he tends to overpay to keep those players. However, that might be changing because he negotiated several Timberwolves to take smaller deals to stay with this team - something no GM in Minnesota had ever done before.

I would need to go through and look at other available talent to even begin to sort through the decision making (for better or worse, of TC.) There is also position of need at the time. Also some of those guys are not that good. Beasley is a great example of a one dimensional role player. If you are telling me that TC builds Denver into a contender without Joker then I think you are wrong.

P.S, MPJ is a guy who is overpaid and his back issues are still a concern. Denver fans talk about trading him because having lost KCP to free agency Denver is really struggling.

Edit to add: TC inherited this team from Rosas and what’s his name who took over from Rosas. Karl, Ant, Jaden, and Naz were the foundation and a team on the rise. NAW was Finch’s doing as Finch instructed TC to acquire him. Getting guys to stay was more about them wanting to be here, which is a function of liking Finch, liking the teammates, and believing the team is on the rise. That isn’t about TC.

[Klomp]

One other sign that points to a higher likelihood of a Randle trade is that in his time here, Connelly has shown that he is not afraid to move off of his "mistakes" quickly.

Botching the KAT trade is more than just a mistake. Sports FOs are all short memory operations. The Butler trade destroyed Thibs. He lost his GM powers, lost his coaching job, had to wait years for another HC job and still doesn’t have the power he had here. This is the kind of error that tarnishes TC in a way you wouldn’t otherwise expect. TC will be judged for the Randle trade. If it gets worse so does his career prospects.

The evidence is that other front offices didn’t/don’t think the Randle trade is a mistake, since they voted the Timberwolves the fifth best front office after that trade. And that high ranking must come mostly from Connelly, because it’s not like the ownership battle was boosting their ranking.

I think that KAT’s immediate success in NYK has fans overly negative on the trade, forgetting how many said that a supermax deal on a #2 option wasn’t a valuable contract in the age of aprons. We’ll see if there is another wildly negative swing in fans’ perception of Towns if he starts flailing his arms, messes up defensive coverage, or misses games with injury. However, the poll makes me thing that voters inside other front offices didn’t have KAT having significant trade value, or they would have voted him lower.

To be honest, I don’t think we’ll know whether the Randle trade was a good one for a long time. Ditto for Gobert trade, as we wait for those picks to be determined. But that hasn’t stopped fans from making their own pronouncements.

I think what makes grading the Towns deal a harsher experience for Timberwolves fans is that there are still follow-up deals to be made, while you could argue that the Knicks had already made their "follow-up" with the Bridges trade. The Knicks roster is built. There is really nowhere else to go. It either succeeds or it fails. And a large reason for that is the $50 million plus owed to Towns in each of the next four seasons.

Like you said, we haven't seen the full picture of the Towns trade. While the Gobert trade is unfinished, I think the Utah roster direction coupled with Minnesota's success puts the value on Minnesota's side for now.

[Norseman79]

So, is all this talk about Randle being on the way out just speculation? How many of us believe he is going to be traded? I'm at about a 75% chance right now. What about you guys? I worry that the longer we wait the lower his value is going to be.

[winforlose]

Botching the KAT trade is more than just a mistake. Sports FOs are all short memory operations. The Butler trade destroyed Thibs. He lost his GM powers, lost his coaching job, had to wait years for another HC job and still doesn’t have the power he had here. This is the kind of error that tarnishes TC in a way you wouldn’t otherwise expect. TC will be judged for the Randle trade. If it gets worse so does his career prospects.

The evidence is that other front offices didn’t/don’t think the Randle trade is a mistake, since they voted the Timberwolves the fifth best front office after that trade. And that high ranking must come mostly from Connelly, because it’s not like the ownership battle was boosting their ranking.

I think that KAT’s immediate success in NYK has fans overly negative on the trade, forgetting how many said that a supermax deal on a #2 option wasn’t a valuable contract in the age of aprons. We’ll see if there is another wildly negative swing in fans’ perception of Towns if he starts flailing his arms, messes up defensive coverage, or misses games with injury. However, the poll makes me thing that voters inside other front offices didn’t have KAT having significant trade value, or they would have voted him lower.

To be honest, I don’t think we’ll know whether the Randle trade was a good one for a long time. Ditto for Gobert trade, as we wait for those picks to be determined. But that hasn’t stopped fans from making their own pronouncements.

I think what makes grading the Towns deal a harsher experience for Timberwolves fans is that there are still follow-up deals to be made, while you could argue that the Knicks had already made their "follow-up" with the Bridges trade. The Knicks roster is built. There is really nowhere else to go. It either succeeds or it fails. And a large reason for that is the $50 million plus owed to Towns in each of the next four seasons.

Like you said, we haven't seen the full picture of the Towns trade. While the Gobert trade is unfinished, I think the Utah roster direction coupled with Minnesota's success puts the value on Minnesota's side for now.

I am sorry, but follow up deals are not the same as salvage deals. DDV, Randle, and a heavily protected first is a terrible return for a Superstar. Karl may have injury issues, but his contract will look very reasonable against the new crop of max deals when the TV money raises the cap 10% a year. This was a bad deal to force DDV to be a wolf. The other side of that is DDV DOES NOT WANT TO BE HERE. He chose NYK in free agency, and is always pouting on TV. Randle’s ISO ball has brought out the worst in Finch’s offense which already struggled with Ant’s hero ball. This was a sell low, ill advised **** show. The fact that both KAT and Ant were blindsided by it also speaks to the level of disfunction in the FO. TC was overrated before the deal, now he is exposed. No matter what salvage trade he makes he didn’t get close to half of Karl’s value.

[shrink]

So, is all this talk about Randle being on the way out just speculation? How many of us believe he is going to be traded? I'm at about a 75% chance right now. What about you guys? I worry that the longer we wait the lower his value is going to be.

For me, I think 35% chance, though I think it is more like 65% he gets traded (not “walks for nothing”) this summer.

With the team starting to win (albeit against some bad teams) and the defense starting to gel, I think it’s more likely Han not that Connelly won’t make a trade that forces the Wolves to try to get cohesion again midseason. For Randle, this isn’t the worst place to be either as he considers his next deal. MIN will likely be a playoff team getting exposure, and Randle will get more exposure as he continues to rack up counting stats. I think he will ask for an extension this year that Connelly won’t give, and over the summer he will think he’s worth more than the $31 min extension. He and the team need to work together to find a franchise where he fits, and MIN will get back a small asset and some payroll savings.

[Slim Tubby]

I like Randle for Jerami Grant.

Portland is tanking anyway, so Randle and his deal
are a good fit. Grant makes 30 million and is under control until 27/28 at 36 million. That’s great value!

Grant is averaging 15/3/2 while shooting 38%/35% splits.

There is ZERO value in that contract, doesn't get us out of the 2nd Apron and quite possibly makes us the worst rebounding team in the NBA.

Maybe this is our reality, and if it is, our roster and talent level regression from last year is beyond disheartening.

In a pathetic effort to save the ownership groups from luxury tax penalties, we managed to accomplish the following:

1. No relief from the 2nd Apron

2. No improved trade/roster/cap flexibility

3. Decreased offensive efficiency

4. Decreased defensive flexibility and efficiency

5. Poor team chemistry

The KAT trade, when coupled with all of the lost tradable assets in the Gobert deal, will haunt this organization for years to come.

In:
* Rudy Gobert
* Exp. Randle contract (No cap relief)
* Donte DiVincenzo
* Protected 2025 FRP (DET) that will never convey

Out:
* Karl Anthony Towns
* Walker Kessler
* 2023 Unprotected FRP
* 2025 Unprotected FRP
* 2026 Unprotected Swap
* 2027 Unprotected FRP
* 2028 Unprotected Swap
* 2029 Unprotected FRP

Complete and utter incompetence from a GM that might very well walk at the end of the season. One (1) trip to the WCF doesn't cover the stench of these deals. Rant over.

Sent from my N152DL using RealGM mobile app

I am very wary of TC as well. But I think we need 3 facts for context.

1. There was no second apron when the Rudy trade was made. The CBA came later.

2. The Rudy trade was also supposed to help Dlo. Had it worked, we wouldn’t have been backed into the Conley corner and been forced to trade for Dilly. Now the true value of that trade remains to be seen, but people write off an unprotected first and a top 1 protected pick swap like they are nothing. Those assets have value, and that value increases as time passes.

3. The ownership battle and money situation are both wrinkles that might not have been foreseen at the time of the initial planning.

I do agree that TC has done a bad job and we are worse than we might have been in someone else’s hands (thanks for drafting Wendell for example,) but whose hands would we be in, and what would they have done differently?

Very fair takes.

Sent from my N152DL using RealGM mobile app

[minimus]

As an armchair basketball manager, I’m absolutely convinced I could do a better job than Tim Connelly—especially in this alternate universe where Ballmer lets PG13 walk, Denver refuses to help Jokic in his prime, and Grousbeck decides to sell the championship-winning Celtics just to save a few bucks

[BlacJacMac]

As an armchair basketball manager, I’m absolutely convinced I could do a better job than Tim Connelly—especially in this alternate universe where Ballmer lets PG13 walk, Denver refuses to help Jokic in his prime, and Grousbeck decides to sell the championship-winning Celtics just to save a few bucks

You see that as a bad move?

George is 34 years-old and has already missed half of Philly's games. And when he has played, he's looked like a shadow of his former self - shooting 41% overall and 31% from 3.

And he's in the first year of a 4/211M contract.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

I didn't read in detail all your comment there as too busy in office but one point reach me. If TC is that bad in trading, who do you explain that we make WCF last year after years of mediocrity?
I think we are still a pretty good team and can make a run this year .The only things we need is to get rid of Randle who really does not match up well. If TC can make a good trade, we are in.

And i also do not forget that KAT despite his talent was not the piece we need to win a championship. He struggle too many times in PO. Building a winning team is not easy specially with the apron things.