Re: Trade Talk (Part Eleven): 2022 Offseason Edition

[winforlose]

So I was listening to Brian Windhorst’s podcast last night, and he asked several executives if there was any team that would take on Russell Westbrook at this point. Most said no, but the only two names he heard was DAL and MIN, though people were skeptical of even those. I was shocked and horrified.

Then, I let it sink in a little. When it comes to trades, this has to be a moment in NBA history with the greatest leverage I have ever seen. The Lakers need to move Westbrook. Not just because he’s disruptive, but because they have one of the greatest players of all time on the roster, and they don’t want to waste one of his final years - perhaps his last in a Lakers uniform. Plus at the same time, there are only two buyers in the whole NBA and maybe only one — I would say that there is no way you ask Luka to put up with a ball-dominant Westbrook for a season. With these two factors in play, I think you could ask for the full boat because LA can’t start training camp with Russ.

Suppose Russ demands a max extension, saying “everybody else is getting paid, and you have no way to replace me next year!” At even this point, would you consider?

DLo + Prince for Westbrook + 2027 and 2029 LAL 1sts, Unprotected

I think I’d still say no, but I recognize that’s good value to take on an expiring Westbrook.

I might take Westbrook after a buyout, but I would not trade Dlo for him. We went all, like KAT said Championship or Bust. Losing your starting PG and backup SF for picks is not an all in move. I suggested something like this getting Kendrick Nunn a while back, but even then, I would need a plan to replace Dlo or a third team to take Westbrook and give us a passable starting PG.

[jscott]

So I was listening to Brian Windhorst’s podcast last night, and he asked several executives if there was any team that would take on Russell Westbrook at this point. Most said no, but the only two names he heard was DAL and MIN, though people were skeptical of even those. I was shocked and horrified.

Then, I let it sink in a little. When it comes to trades, this has to be a moment in NBA history with the greatest leverage I have ever seen. The Lakers need to move Westbrook. Not just because he’s disruptive, but because they have one of the greatest players of all time on the roster, and they don’t want to waste one of his final years - perhaps his last in a Lakers uniform. Plus at the same time, there are only two buyers in the whole NBA and maybe only one — I would say that there is no way you ask Luka to put up with a ball-dominant Westbrook for a season. With these two factors in play, I think you could ask for the full boat because LA can’t start training camp with Russ.

Suppose Russ demands a max extension, saying “everybody else is getting paid, and you have no way to replace me next year!” At even this point, would you consider?

DLo + Prince for Westbrook + 2027 and 2029 LAL 1sts, Unprotected

I think I’d still say no, but I recognize that’s good value to take on an expiring Westbrook.

I might take Westbrook after a buyout, but I would not trade Dlo for him. We went all, like KAT said Championship or Bust. Losing your starting PG and backup SF for picks is not an all in move. I suggested something like this getting Kendrick Nunn a while back, but even then, I would need a plan to replace Dlo or a third team to take Westbrook and give us a passable starting PG.

Guess that might depend on if you are planning on resigning DLo (or even if the team can afford it.)

Let’s say you don’t/can’t and you also don’t win the title this year. Would you rather be going into next offseason with neither DLo/Russ and have those Laker picks as trade assets or not? Cause right now, we have no tradeable picks for a while.

[Domejandro]

DLo + Prince for Westbrook + 2027 and 2029 LAL 1sts, Unprotected

I think I’d still say no, but I recognize that’s good value to take on an expiring Westbrook.

Realistically, if that package was on the table, Kyrie Irving would be a member of the Los Angeles Lakers. If not, Myles Turner and Buddy Hield certainly would be heading to Los Angeles. On both counts, the Los Angeles Lakers have been fully unwilling to budge on trading both picks, and I really don't think they would change their tune on that for D'Angelo Russell and Taurean Prince. Ignoring those factors...

At face-value, I would probably lean towards doing that deal. That said, I have two concerns.

1. Going into the Luxury-Tax is a killer (given that Minnesota is likely on-track to being in the Luxury-Tax moving forward), and this trade gives Minnesota no serious pathway to dodging it. This trade 100% can ONLY happen if Minnesota owners want to go into the Luxury-Tax this season and eat a potential, future repeater tax (which I would doubt).

2. How badly does Russell Westbrook's poor shooting undercut the ability for Anthony Edwards to thrive?

From my perspective, if that deal is on the table (it wouldn't be), I would want to see beforehand if Minnesota could then package Russell Westbrook, Wendell Moore Jr. (if needed), and those two picks for Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris. Brooklyn gets two picks and a prospect, while dumping Joe Harris' salary (concerns with ankle surgery). Minnesota gets an All-NBA caliber player and gamble on Joe Harris coming back well; when healthy, Joe Harris was shooting 47.5% on a staggering 6.4 attempts per game, which is ridiculous. Even if Joe Harris regresses, him at 40% would be a great addition to offset losing Malik Beasley (despite his potentially bloated salary).

Kyrie Irving / Jordan McLaughlin / Austin Rivers
Anthony Edwards / Jaylen Nowell / Bryn Forbes
Jaden McDaniels / Joe Harris
Karl-Anthony Towns / Kyle Anderson / Josh Minott
Rudy Gobert / Naz Reid

That is a real "Championship or Bust" roster.


To be clear though, why would the Los Angeles Lakers pay Minnesota the necessary assets to trade for Kyrie? Maybe the Lakers could Lottery protect the 2029 First Round Draft Pick and Minnesota could chip in a 2024/2028 Pick Swap to Brooklyn?

[Worm Guts]

I really don’t want any part of Westbrook if we’re trying to win now.

[Biff Cooper]

At even this point, would you consider?

DLo + Prince for Westbrook + 2027 and 2029 LAL 1sts, Unprotected

I think I’d still say no, but I recognize that’s good value to take on an expiring Westbrook.

Is Westbrook a max player? We can't take on a third max player - correct?

I'd say no as I believe we are a much better team with DLo than with Westbrook. Maybe if Finch and the rest of our brain trust see some unique way they could use Westbrook, I see a small chance of it.

It also depends how our brain trust views DLo. Are we planning on him being a significant contributor on the team this season, or do we plan on putting a lot of his minutes up for grabs and letting the younger kids fight for them? If the second is the case, why not trade for the first and keep or waive Westbrook. I am under the impression they view DLo as a 25-30 minute per night guy still, such that a trade for someone worse would not make sense.

[winforlose]

So I was listening to Brian Windhorst’s podcast last night, and he asked several executives if there was any team that would take on Russell Westbrook at this point. Most said no, but the only two names he heard was DAL and MIN, though people were skeptical of even those. I was shocked and horrified.

Then, I let it sink in a little. When it comes to trades, this has to be a moment in NBA history with the greatest leverage I have ever seen. The Lakers need to move Westbrook. Not just because he’s disruptive, but because they have one of the greatest players of all time on the roster, and they don’t want to waste one of his final years - perhaps his last in a Lakers uniform. Plus at the same time, there are only two buyers in the whole NBA and maybe only one — I would say that there is no way you ask Luka to put up with a ball-dominant Westbrook for a season. With these two factors in play, I think you could ask for the full boat because LA can’t start training camp with Russ.

Suppose Russ demands a max extension, saying “everybody else is getting paid, and you have no way to replace me next year!” At even this point, would you consider?

DLo + Prince for Westbrook + 2027 and 2029 LAL 1sts, Unprotected

I think I’d still say no, but I recognize that’s good value to take on an expiring Westbrook.

I might take Westbrook after a buyout, but I would not trade Dlo for him. We went all, like KAT said Championship or Bust. Losing your starting PG and backup SF for picks is not an all in move. I suggested something like this getting Kendrick Nunn a while back, but even then, I would need a plan to replace Dlo or a third team to take Westbrook and give us a passable starting PG.

Guess that might depend on if you are planning on resigning DLo (or even if the team can afford it.)

Let’s say you don’t/can’t and you also don’t win the title this year. Would you rather be going into next offseason with neither DLo/Russ and have those Laker picks as trade assets or not? Cause right now, we have no tradeable picks for a while.

You don’t make the Gobert trade if you cannot afford to resign Dlo. In fact the trade gave Dlo a ton of leverage to overcharge the Wolves and they still made it before extending him. The trade was part of a fundamental shift into a super luxury tax team. Look at the direction of the NBA right now. Clippers are likely to be at 200 mil payroll this year. Warriors won’t be far behind, and a record number of teams are getting into the tax either this year or next. GSW and Brooklyn shattered the old system and this is the new reality.

Your asking would I rather weaken myself before a prize fight to get a payoff or bet on myself and risk losing the bet. Throwing the fight sends a terrible message and undercuts everything I stand for. Better to go down swinging than to guarantee defeat before I start.

[winforlose]

At even this point, would you consider?

DLo + Prince for Westbrook + 2027 and 2029 LAL 1sts, Unprotected

I think I’d still say no, but I recognize that’s good value to take on an expiring Westbrook.

Is Westbrook a max player? We can't take on a third max player - correct?

I'd say no as I believe we are a much better team with DLo than with Westbrook. Maybe if Finch and the rest of our brain trust see some unique way they could use Westbrook, I see a small chance of it.

It also depends how our brain trust views DLo. Are we planning on him being a significant contributor on the team this season, or do we plan on putting a lot of his minutes up for grabs and letting the younger kids fight for them? If the second is the case, why not trade for the first and keep or waive Westbrook. I am under the impression they view DLo as a 25-30 minute per night guy still, such that a trade for someone worse would not make sense.

I don’t see us ever doing that. This is a win now plan. Playing young guys is a recipe for tanking and we don’t have our pick. Dlo will miss games and those are the JMAC, Nowell, opportunities.

[D1SGRUNTL3D]

I really don’t want any part of Westbrook if we’re trying to win now.

Same. He’s on the short list of losers I want zero part of and would feel dirty even cheering for. The others are James harden and Ben Simmons

[shrink]

I really don’t want any part of Westbrook if we’re trying to win now.

Same. He’s on the short list of losers I want zero part of and would feel dirty even cheering for. The others are James harden and Ben Simmons

I’m with you, and I’d add Kyrie to the list. These guys have all reached new levels of prioritizing themselves over their teams.

Any other year, I’d probably take on Westbrook for enough compensation, but right now, I think I’d say no to even two 1sts. That’s great, great value for an expiring, but I think next season is too important. I want Ant, KAT and Rudy to be happy and excited, and I think Westbrook’s selfishness has an 80% chance of derailing the season. If the Lakers can actually find someone to take him, he’ll have worn out his welcome on four straight teams, each of the four years of his max deal. He refuses to not be “The Star,” no matter who’s on the floor with him. I think DLo could be disruptive too if he doesn’t get a giant, expensive extension, but I think the odds there are closer to 50/50, and if the team ignores going far into the luxury tax, they can avoid that chemistry problem, and just deal with creating a multi-year bad contract.

[minimus]

I really don’t want any part of Westbrook if we’re trying to win now.

Same. He’s on the short list of losers I want zero part of and would feel dirty even cheering for. The others are James harden and Ben Simmons

I’m with you, and I’d add Kyrie to the list. These guys have all reached new levels of prioritizing themselves over their teams.

Westbrook
Kyrie
KD
Ben Simmons
Butler

[D1SGRUNTL3D]

Same. He’s on the short list of losers I want zero part of and would feel dirty even cheering for. The others are James harden and Ben Simmons

I’m with you, and I’d add Kyrie to the list. These guys have all reached new levels of prioritizing themselves over their teams.

Westbrook
Kyrie
KD
Ben Simmons
Butler

Jimmy’s an a-hole but damned if that guy isn’t always competing and or winning.

He’s a good player. I wish he would’ve lit a bigger fire under kat. But it didn’t, then Covid happened so that all kinda just fanned out. I think Jimmy has a losing record Vs us since he left so that’s kinda funny

[winforlose]

Curious what you guys think of this. I know some of you will say cut out the Wolves, others will say it is too much for too little, but still figured I would share it here.

Wolves send Dlo and Naz Reid to Nets, Nets send Ben Simmons to Pels, Pels send CJ McCollum to Timberwolves.

Why for Nets: Dlo is a safer bet than Simmons and Naz is an excellent backup C that when given minutes at starter plays like an NBA starter.

Why for the Pels: Simmons is a higher risk and therefore the weak link in the trade. But he is younger than CJ and has a higher upside. Simmons defense would be a big upgrade and his playmaking is on par. There may be a fit issue with Zion, and I could see the Pels saying no. But they would also be very long and hard to guard with Simmons, Ingram, Zion, and JV.

Why for the Wolves: CJ is a better shooter and better win now player than Dlo. He is also under contract for another year which helps with the salary slot. A starting 5 of CJ, Ant, MCD, KAT, and Rudy is very dangerous.
Top

[shrink]

I don’t think we’re giving enough value for CJ. I have seen for expensive players, their trade value often is highly variable based on perception. For instance, a star player can go from being a great contract to one of the worst in the league in the blink of an eye, like Russell Westbrook. It’s the star players that put you over the top, but if they produce anything less than like a star, people seem to notice the contract.

This is the way I think people perceive CJ. He is richly paid for his production, I would even consider him overpaid. But since he is better than most other PG/SG’s, people think he requires a lot of assets. Another example is Rudy Gobert. Whatever you think of him, he is richly paid on his contract, and most national pundits wondered if he would get a max deal, or be worthy of one, when he signed last year. Now, Rudy on that deal brought back a ton of assets. CJ is no Rudy, but I don’t think DLo (considered overpaid but just an expiring) plus Naz (underpaid) would have enough trade value.

Lastly, I don’t think CJ is the right fit. Good player, but he’s a scorer and a poor defender. I think we could use a passer-defender. DLO is at least one of these things.

[winforlose]

I don’t think we’re giving enough value for CJ. I have seen for expensive players, their trade value often is highly variable based on perception. For instance, a star player can go from being a great contract to one of the worst in the league in the blink of an eye, like Russell Westbrook. It’s the star players that put you over the top, but if they produce anything less than like a star, people seem to notice the contract.

This is the way I think people perceive CJ. He is richly paid for his production, I would even consider him overpaid. But since he is better than most other PG/SG’s, people think he requires a lot of assets. Another example is Rudy Gobert. Whatever you think of him, he is richly paid on his contract, and most national pundits wondered if he would get a max deal, or be worthy of one, when he signed last year. Now, Rudy on that deal brought back a ton of assets. CJ is no Rudy, but I don’t think DLo (considered overpaid but just an expiring) plus Naz (underpaid) would have enough trade value.

Lastly, I don’t think CJ is the right fit. Good player, but he’s a scorer and a poor defender. I think we could use a passer-defender. DLO is at least one of these things.

Simmons has a questionable fit with Zion and JV but in theory at his peak is a better overall player. CJ for Simmons is I think fair value. The real question is whether Dlo is enough value for Simmons? That is why I included Naz, to try and tip the scales a bit. The Nets are weak at C and Naz could really do something there. The Simmons situation creates a weird valuation problem full of risk. I wouldn’t want him, but maybe the Pels do? Then again, they could just cut us out and take CJ back. It really does come down to whether they value Dlo and Naz above CJ.

CJ is doing pretty well at PG with the Pels. 5.8 AST to 2.2 TO. I think his passing is under rated, but I do agree he is a bit score first. But, the important thing is he scores more consistently than Dlo. He also has decent resale value next year if we move him for a different PG.

I am not sure any team does this deal, but I see potential for all 3 to get what they need.

[winforlose]

Left field idea, kinda out there.

Wolves trade: Dlo, Nowell, and Reid (all three extend and trade,)
Bucks trade Jrue Holiday.

Why for Wolves: despite Holidays injury history and being Age 32 vs Dlo at 27, Jrue is a better shooter, comparable passer, and better defender than Dlo. It is an all in move to make our starting five significantly better and to lock in our starting PG for at least this season and the next.

Why for the Bucks. Dlo is a significant downgrade at the PG, but he is still better than some starting PGs and his ceiling is higher than was shown last year. He is also 5 years younger and less likely to quality slide in the near future. Nowell is a potential 6th man of the year when used properly. His passing and drive and kick are improving, his shooting percentages are excellent, and he is only 23 with his prime still upcoming. Naz is a significant improvement over Ibaka at backup C. Lopez is getting older and starting to deal with injuries. Naz is a potential replacement long term or at least a solid backup C long term. Bucks get 2 23 year old backups with starting potential to develop and serviceable replacement for Holiday.

[BlacJacMac]

Left field idea, kinda out there.

Wolves trade: Dlo, Nowell, and Reid (all three extend and trade,)
Bucks trade Jrue Holiday.

Why for Wolves: despite Holidays injury history and being Age 32 vs Dlo at 27, Jrue is a better shooter, comparable passer, and better defender than Dlo. It is an all in move to make our starting five significantly better and to lock in our starting PG for at least this season and the next.

Why for the Bucks. Dlo is a significant downgrade at the PG, but he is still better than some starting PGs and his ceiling is higher than was shown last year. He is also 5 years younger and less likely to quality slide in the near future. Nowell is a potential 6th man of the year when used properly. His passing and drive and kick are improving, his shooting percentages are excellent, and he is only 23 with his prime still upcoming. Naz is a significant improvement over Ibaka at backup C. Lopez is getting older and starting to deal with injuries. Naz is a potential replacement long term or at least a solid backup C long term. Bucks get 2 23 year old backups with starting potential to develop and serviceable replacement for Holiday.

I think the Bucks would not make this trade for the exact same reasons you put that we would.

[winforlose]

Left field idea, kinda out there.

Wolves trade: Dlo, Nowell, and Reid (all three extend and trade,)
Bucks trade Jrue Holiday.

Why for Wolves: despite Holidays injury history and being Age 32 vs Dlo at 27, Jrue is a better shooter, comparable passer, and better defender than Dlo. It is an all in move to make our starting five significantly better and to lock in our starting PG for at least this season and the next.

Why for the Bucks. Dlo is a significant downgrade at the PG, but he is still better than some starting PGs and his ceiling is higher than was shown last year. He is also 5 years younger and less likely to quality slide in the near future. Nowell is a potential 6th man of the year when used properly. His passing and drive and kick are improving, his shooting percentages are excellent, and he is only 23 with his prime still upcoming. Naz is a significant improvement over Ibaka at backup C. Lopez is getting older and starting to deal with injuries. Naz is a potential replacement long term or at least a solid backup C long term. Bucks get 2 23 year old backups with starting potential to develop and serviceable replacement for Holiday.

I think the Bucks would not make this trade for the exact same reasons you put that we would.

Maybe, but Lopez is on a down slide and Naz is a solid replacement for him. Nowell is a blue chip who will open a lot of eyes, and Dlo while a downgrade isn’t soo much of a downgrade that the Bucks couldn’t still compete at a high level. Maybe they use picks and move Dlo for someone else. Either way, getting two 23 year olds with starter level depth and a top 20 PG is a solid reason to trade a 32 year PG with injury issues and only two years of team control. All in all I think it may be a tough sell, but at least worth considering.

[BlacJacMac]

Left field idea, kinda out there.

Wolves trade: Dlo, Nowell, and Reid (all three extend and trade,)
Bucks trade Jrue Holiday.

Why for Wolves: despite Holidays injury history and being Age 32 vs Dlo at 27, Jrue is a better shooter, comparable passer, and better defender than Dlo. It is an all in move to make our starting five significantly better and to lock in our starting PG for at least this season and the next.

Why for the Bucks. Dlo is a significant downgrade at the PG, but he is still better than some starting PGs and his ceiling is higher than was shown last year. He is also 5 years younger and less likely to quality slide in the near future. Nowell is a potential 6th man of the year when used properly. His passing and drive and kick are improving, his shooting percentages are excellent, and he is only 23 with his prime still upcoming. Naz is a significant improvement over Ibaka at backup C. Lopez is getting older and starting to deal with injuries. Naz is a potential replacement long term or at least a solid backup C long term. Bucks get 2 23 year old backups with starting potential to develop and serviceable replacement for Holiday.

I think the Bucks would not make this trade for the exact same reasons you put that we would.

Maybe, but Lopez is on a down slide and Naz is a solid replacement for him. Nowell is a blue chip who will open a lot of eyes, and Dlo while a downgrade isn’t soo much of a downgrade that the Bucks couldn’t still compete at a high level. Maybe they use picks and move Dlo for someone else. Either way, getting two 23 year olds with starter level depth and a top 20 PG is a solid reason to trade a 32 year PG with injury issues and only two years of team control. All in all I think it may be a tough sell, but at least worth considering.

I don't think a contending team thinks like that. If Holiday makes us a better team now, wouldn't subtracting him make the Bucks a worse team?

Maybe if the Bucks were stuck in a perennial 50 win, 1st round loss loop, they look at the deal. But to knock themselves out of contending to possibly make them better down the road doesn't make much sense.

They gave up a ton for Holiday and he paid off immediately. I know you're higher on Nowell (and especially) Reid than many, but I don't think they've proven nearly enough to be the difference in downgrading to D'Lo.

[winforlose]

I think the Bucks would not make this trade for the exact same reasons you put that we would.

Maybe, but Lopez is on a down slide and Naz is a solid replacement for him. Nowell is a blue chip who will open a lot of eyes, and Dlo while a downgrade isn’t soo much of a downgrade that the Bucks couldn’t still compete at a high level. Maybe they use picks and move Dlo for someone else. Either way, getting two 23 year olds with starter level depth and a top 20 PG is a solid reason to trade a 32 year PG with injury issues and only two years of team control. All in all I think it may be a tough sell, but at least worth considering.

I don't think a contending team thinks like that. If Holiday makes us a better team now, wouldn't subtracting him make the Bucks a worse team?

Maybe if the Bucks were stuck in a perennial 50 win, 1st round loss loop, they look at the deal. But to knock themselves out of contending to possibly make them better down the road doesn't make much sense.

They gave up a ton for Holiday and he paid off immediately. I know you're higher on Nowell (and especially) Reid than many, but I don't think they've proven nearly enough to be the difference in downgrading to D'Lo.

I hear you. I assume the Bucks have staff that look closely at all potential free agents, and both Naz and Nowell were potential RFAs this year. The real question is what do the Bucks think of them.

Regarding your comment about not being contenders, I disagree. If Nowell is an improvement over Hill and Naz is an improvement over Ibaka, the bench unit is significantly improved. How many PPG and AST per game are you losing in the downgrade? Let’s say 10 on offense and 10 on defense, with the same number of AST but 2 more turnovers per game. What do Nowell and Reid contribute to help negate that loss? Also, the Bucks are getting old, and grooming Naz and Nowell as future starters goes a long way to extend that window. I mean Jrue is 32, Lopez is 34, Middleton is 31, Ibaka is 33 and Hill is 36. Getting some young blood that could play effectively with Giannis and Allen is a step toward extending that window. Plus Dlo at 27 might either prove a decent trade chip or see improved defense in the. Bucks system, you never know.

[BlacJacMac]

Maybe, but Lopez is on a down slide and Naz is a solid replacement for him. Nowell is a blue chip who will open a lot of eyes, and Dlo while a downgrade isn’t soo much of a downgrade that the Bucks couldn’t still compete at a high level. Maybe they use picks and move Dlo for someone else. Either way, getting two 23 year olds with starter level depth and a top 20 PG is a solid reason to trade a 32 year PG with injury issues and only two years of team control. All in all I think it may be a tough sell, but at least worth considering.

I don't think a contending team thinks like that. If Holiday makes us a better team now, wouldn't subtracting him make the Bucks a worse team?

Maybe if the Bucks were stuck in a perennial 50 win, 1st round loss loop, they look at the deal. But to knock themselves out of contending to possibly make them better down the road doesn't make much sense.

They gave up a ton for Holiday and he paid off immediately. I know you're higher on Nowell (and especially) Reid than many, but I don't think they've proven nearly enough to be the difference in downgrading to D'Lo.

I hear you. I assume the Bucks have staff that look closely at all potential free agents, and both Naz and Nowell were potential RFAs this year. The real question is what do the Bucks think of them.

Regarding your comment about not being contenders, I disagree. If Nowell is an improvement over Hill and Naz is an improvement over Ibaka, the bench unit is significantly improved. How many PPG and AST per game are you losing in the downgrade? Let’s say 10 on offense and 10 on defense, with the same number of AST but 2 more turnovers per game. What do Nowell and Reid contribute to help negate that loss? Also, the Bucks are getting old, and grooming Naz and Nowell as future starters goes a long way to extend that window. I mean Jrue is 32, Lopez is 34, Middleton is 31, Ibaka is 33 and Hill is 36. Getting some young blood that could play effectively with Giannis and Allen is a step toward extending that window. Plus Dlo at 27 might either prove a decent trade chip or see improved defense in the. Bucks system, you never know.

They also have 27 year old Bobby Portis who is significantly better than Naz on both ends.