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Identity crisis?

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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#301 » by cupcakesnake » Fri Jul 5, 2024 1:06 pm

minimus wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:I'd say Towns' problem is being too fast a thinker! Really rushes and forces things, especially in iso and as a passer. He's a super talented passer, and every couple of games he looks relaxed and plays a fantastic brand of normal basketball. Then the next game he goes completely haywire, throws passes out of bounds, drives into offensive fouls, passes up open shots to drive into traffic, forces a post-up against a bad matchup. (But yeah I think we mean the same thing here)


Yeah, agree. I just call it force things. I think the main problem is that Towns does not have a go-to move AND counter move, that allow him to stay calm under pressure. I mean Jokic can always post-up AND/OR pas, play DHO. Karl can go straight line drive going right, but it is to predictable and he gets offensive fouls. Karl can shoot 3s, but his footwork is slow so this option will be taken away by quicker defenders.

I still wonder what happened to Karl in DAL series. I guess after two rim protectors took away his post/slashing game, he his role reduced to a volume 3pt shooter at PF which he never has been, and only then he failed.

cupcakesnake wrote:Boston is an interesting example, with the biggest difference being: Jrue Holiday and Derrick White can play much bigger minutes than Conley and SloMo could, without giving up any advantage. If we had 2 borderline all-stars playing heavy minute roles next to Ant and Kat, we'd be winning championships. We spent our money on a one-man monster defensive advantage (Gobert) who makes Ant and Kat's decision making tree slightly more difficult. Now Kat loves to throw lobs to Gobert, but really struggles to identify when to drive/post based on where Gobert is on the floor. Ant loved tearing apart Phoenix and Denver with their lack of paint protection, but the decisions got too difficult when Dallas shrunk the floor on him.

I don't think Ant is that far away from Tatum as a playmaker, and think he might even have better potential in this regard. Boston has simplified the game for Tatum: run pick & roll, collapse the defense as best you can, kick out in any direction to our monstrous 3-point shooting machine. It's kind of an easy job and Tatum is capable of doing it. Ant has to navigate weirder lineups, and still hasnt mastered the art of the interior pass, so there's so many missed opportunities. He's excellent at hitting the corners now so hopefully he can build on that. Ant growing as a primary playmaker will make it much easier to slow in defenders, shooters, and play finishers around him.


Yes, before Gobert trade Ant was an ISO scorer in free flow Finch offense. He has improved a lot, he is playing much more under control now. Next step is finally incorporating high level structured plays/reads in his game. Such as double drag play that Doncic used to kill MIN

cupcakesnake wrote:I like the idea of Shannon being used in a similar role to Reid, while allowing us to play quicker lineups.


I find it very intriguing that Shannon and Reid can be guys who are playing off the catch, who are natural aggressive scorers. My biggest hope is that Shannon brings physicality in second unit. MIN bench is 21st in FTA. Reid as scoring big from bench is particularly bad at earning FTs. For instance, Malik Monk averaged 3.9FTA per36, Reid averaged 2.7FTA per36. Obviously other bench players such NAW, Anderson and Morris/McLaughlin didnt apply any rim pressure neither.

Also MIN bench is 21st in 3PA. This is despite Reid highest 3pt shooting rate. Hopefully it will improve with addition of Rob and Shannon. I really hope that Reid-Shannon-NAW-Dillingham unit can find chemistry and run and attack with league highest pace. The only question I have is who defend big wings? Shannon? Minott? Miller? Clark?

Reid-(Minott/Miller/Clark)-Shannon-NAW-Dillingham


I haven't thought about that before, that Kat's struggles come from not having a go-to move/counter, but that explains it perfectly. It can be something that can plague a mega-talent: I can do anything, so what should I do specifically?

I think Kat has to embrace becoming a high volume 3-point shooter to maximize his value on this roster. When the Mavs/Wolves matchup was set, I remember thinking: oh they wont be able to shrink the floor against us quite as easily as they did OKC, Kat and Naz can bomb them to death from 3. Instead Kat only upped his attempts a tiny amount, and seemed overly eager to pump fake and drive, despite being gifted a ton of open 3s (which he bonked to the tune of 24%...). If the defense is going to give you something, you have to be ready to take it. He should have been attempting 12 threes per game that series, in my opinion.

The times I felt out offense looked the most potent were with Towns all the way up at the top and Ant attacking from the right elbow. (I liked it especially if this configuration forms after Kat comes off a pin-down). Towns standing there makes it paralyzing for the defense to help, and if they want to guard Ant and Towns (without leaving Gobert open in the paint), they have to bend the defense a lot more. Defenses became a little less panicked guarding that formation though, when it became clear that Towns wouldn't always punish them for it. He'll shoot it sometimes, but sometimes he'll prepare to drive, allow the close out to happen, and essentialy reset the possession with no advantage gained.

I agree that the team trying to add more rim pressure and more spacing is the way to go. There's room to improve in this offense through 3s and free throws. I'm not sure whether the rookies will carve out roles in year 1, but they're the right kinds of young guys to add.

In terms of guarding big wings, I get that Jaden is skinny and struggled at times againt Luka (though I still don't get why he had to go over every screen when Luka was killing us in the pick & roll rather than with step back 3s). I still don't think this is a horrible weakness for us. We have the size and paint protection behind our ball pressure to be annoying to score against, even if we don't have a perfect man-to-man matchup. Like Zion would be a hard player for us to put a body on, but if we can keep Gobert near the paint, we should survive. Losing SloMo is definitely a drain on our defensive versatility. For all the love Jaden, NAW, and Ant got for their ball pressure, SloMo was our highest IQ defender with the best hands and strongest base. I don't see our young guys (Minott and Shannon) being able to replicate that, though if either of them popped we'd have another good defensive athlete in the rotation.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#302 » by Klomp » Fri Jul 5, 2024 5:50 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:I like the idea of Shannon being used in a similar role to Reid, while allowing us to play quicker lineups.

I never would have thought of that, but I really like this!
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#303 » by minimus » Fri Jul 5, 2024 7:42 pm

Klomp wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:I like the idea of Shannon being used in a similar role to Reid, while allowing us to play quicker lineups.

I never would have thought of that, but I really like this!


Yeah, it was my thought as well. Let Shannon play off the catch, just like Reid does. Both have elite quickness. Add on ball and off ball screens to allow Reid and Shannon to attack defense

Image
Image

Below are Shannon highlights, notice how many time he attacks immediately: as ball screen scorer he is elite (95th percentile).

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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#304 » by Klomp » Fri Jul 5, 2024 7:47 pm

The new identity crisis: We are the Minnesota.....Jazz?!?!

Rudy Gobert
Mike Conley
Joe Ingles
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Assistant GM Dell Demps

Am I missing anyone?

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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#305 » by cupcakesnake » Fri Jul 5, 2024 9:53 pm

Klomp wrote:The new identity crisis: We are the Minnesota.....Jazz?!?!

Rudy Gobert
Mike Conley
Joe Ingles
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Assistant GM Dell Demps

Am I missing anyone?

Read on Twitter


The Jazz are a pretty nice group of fans on realgm, so this is a real win for us as a community.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#306 » by minimus » Sat Jul 6, 2024 9:21 pm

One of crucial factors in Rob development will be his ability to operate in high level NBA defense. I am thinking about GSW in their primes, when they implemented various types of defense to protect Curry and use their strength such as mobility and versatility of Dray Green. Things such as peel and veer switch:




Another thing that GSW was known for is pre-switch concept. However, it requires a lot of communication, chemistry and coaching.




To sum up: it will be quite a challenge to aks our rookies to be part of such high level defense. However, I believe that Connelly did his best and created environment where our rookies can succeed. Here is why:

First, TC kept defensive core together for third year of Gobert experiment. Gobert-McDaniles-Edwards-NAW will play their third season together. Same coach, same core. This type of continuity should help chemistry, which is needed if we want to implement such defense. Second, I believe we have enough talent to make it work. Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, NAW they all got extended playoff run, they all can improve. While MIN dont have Dray Green type of defender, I think our bench unit can execute such defense just good enough to not be killed by opponent, especially with Towns and Reid improvement as defender AND addition of TSJ and Clark. Both TSJ and Clark are quick, strong and physical defenders. So MIN already have strong defensive core of Gobert-McDaniles-Edwards-NAW, and TC adds two players with high potential in defense. Finally, I think that Conley, Gobert and Ingles will provide enough support as veteran core to translate such nuances to young players. This communication is crucial for high level defense.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#307 » by TimberKat » Sun Jul 7, 2024 3:04 pm

Asking a 19 year old to play more than 10 mins of impactful team basketball is too much. If RD could, he would had been a top 5 pick instead of projected as a late teens draft. I really won't count on him plays more than JMcL's 600 minutes and likely less than that. Hopefully he will be the #1 backup in 25-26 season.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#308 » by KGdaBom » Sun Jul 7, 2024 4:26 pm

TimberKat wrote:Asking a 19 year old to play more than 10 mins of impactful team basketball is too much. If RD could, he would had been a top 5 pick instead of projected as a late teens draft. I really won't count on him plays more than JMcL's 600 minutes and likely less than that. Hopefully he will be the #1 backup in 25-26 season.

I'm highly confident we won't be seeking 10 MPG from him. We will be seeking 20 MPG or more. As for him being the #1 backup PG this year I would put the odds in favor of that at 95%.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#309 » by TimberKat » Sun Jul 7, 2024 4:35 pm

KGdaBom wrote:
TimberKat wrote:Asking a 19 year old to play more than 10 mins of impactful team basketball is too much. If RD could, he would had been a top 5 pick instead of projected as a late teens draft. I really won't count on him plays more than JMcL's 600 minutes and likely less than that. Hopefully he will be the #1 backup in 25-26 season.

I'm highly confident we won't be seeking 10 MPG from him. We will be seeking 20 MPG or more.

That is LaMelo, Cade and Simmons territory. All overall #1 picks. Maybe the only exception is Tyrese Haliburton.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#310 » by KGdaBom » Sun Jul 7, 2024 4:38 pm

TimberKat wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:
TimberKat wrote:Asking a 19 year old to play more than 10 mins of impactful team basketball is too much. If RD could, he would had been a top 5 pick instead of projected as a late teens draft. I really won't count on him plays more than JMcL's 600 minutes and likely less than that. Hopefully he will be the #1 backup in 25-26 season.

I'm highly confident we won't be seeking 10 MPG from him. We will be seeking 20 MPG or more.

That is LaMelo, Cade and Simmons territory. All overall #1 picks. Maybe the only exception is Tyrese Haliburton.

We didn't trade for that pick to get a player that will suck this year and get no minutes. He's going to play and there will be some growing pains, but I expect him to play well.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#311 » by Klomp » Sun Jul 7, 2024 5:40 pm

TimberKat wrote:Asking a 19 year old to play more than 10 mins of impactful team basketball is too much. If RD could, he would had been a top 5 pick instead of projected as a late teens draft. I really won't count on him plays more than JMcL's 600 minutes and likely less than that. Hopefully he will be the #1 backup in 25-26 season.

Maybe 10-20 years ago, but that's not really the case anymore.

16 rookies averaged 20+ mpg (four 19-year-olds)
24 rookies averaged 15+ mpg (five 19-year-olds)
30 rookies averaged 10+ mpg (six 19-year-olds)
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#312 » by minimus » Fri Jul 12, 2024 10:45 am

TSJ should fit here from day one. I hope Clark can hit 3pt consistently, because if he can this defense with him will have a chance to be legendary. One of main reason why our defense in DAL series was not as effective as in PHO and DEN series were NAW and Edwards injuries. Having two extra guys in TSJ and Clark who can share defensive load without giving up intensity could be a huge bonus. We did lose defensive versatility of Anderson, but our perimeter defense against guards has potential to improve a lot.

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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#313 » by TheZachAttack » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:35 pm

minimus wrote:
Klomp wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:I like the idea of Shannon being used in a similar role to Reid, while allowing us to play quicker lineups.

I never would have thought of that, but I really like this!


Yeah, it was my thought as well. Let Shannon play off the catch, just like Reid does. Both have elite quickness. Add on ball and off ball screens to allow Reid and Shannon to attack defense

Image
Image

Below are Shannon highlights, notice how many time he attacks immediately: as ball screen scorer he is elite (95th percentile).



This is a a great take. I would like to see Clarke flying out in transition ala Corey Brewer and then attacking aggressively off the catch from the flow. I think his size, length, aggressiveness, and ability to get to the line can be pretty dominant in that role
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#314 » by TheZachAttack » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:36 pm

minimus wrote:
Klomp wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:I like the idea of Shannon being used in a similar role to Reid, while allowing us to play quicker lineups.

I never would have thought of that, but I really like this!


Yeah, it was my thought as well. Let Shannon play off the catch, just like Reid does. Both have elite quickness. Add on ball and off ball screens to allow Reid and Shannon to attack defense

Image
Image

Below are Shannon highlights, notice how many time he attacks immediately: as ball screen scorer he is elite (95th percentile).



This is a a great take. I would like to see Clarke flying out in transition ala Corey Brewer and then attacking aggressively off the catch from the flow. I think his size, length, aggressiveness, and ability to get to the line can be pretty dominant in that role
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#315 » by minimus » Sun Jul 14, 2024 8:28 am

TheZachAttack wrote:I would like to see Clarke flying out in transition ala Corey Brewer and then attacking aggressively off the catch from the flow. I think his size, length, aggressiveness, and ability to get to the line can be pretty dominant in that role


I wonder if Clark can be our version of Royce ONeal: undersized, but tough and physical defender who just sit in corner and shoot all that wide open threes created by Gobert and Edwards gravity. Clark is not nowhere near to ONeal as 3pt shooter, but Jaylen has all tools to defend PF/SF/SG.
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#316 » by TheZachAttack » Mon Jul 15, 2024 1:22 pm

minimus wrote:
TheZachAttack wrote:I would like to see Clarke flying out in transition ala Corey Brewer and then attacking aggressively off the catch from the flow. I think his size, length, aggressiveness, and ability to get to the line can be pretty dominant in that role


I wonder if Clark can be our version of Royce ONeal: undersized, but tough and physical defender who just sit in corner and shoot all that wide open threes created by Gobert and Edwards gravity. Clark is not nowhere near to ONeal as 3pt shooter, but Jaylen has all tools to defend PF/SF/SG.


I am realizing I said Clark, but meant Shannon but I also agree lol
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#317 » by minimus » Tue Jul 16, 2024 4:52 pm

One underrated thing I've been thinking about. Dane Moore and Kyle Theige said in their latest podcast that Nix has been one who consistently (I forget exact word) beefing(???) with opponents: pointing at them after dunks, playing aggressive physical defense etc.

Look how he defend Jarace Walker and at the end of possession waved Walker hand
Read on Twitter


Or threw that look
Read on Twitter


I thought that is something about Nix personality, but I guess it might become a really dominating mindset in MIN players. For instance, Jaylen Clark bet that he will made 5 steals against IND, and he ended up with 6. And here he is challenging his former teammate Bona.
Read on Twitter


You cant play suffocating defense "just" by playing finesse, nice defense. You should be aggressive, MEAN and BIG. I guess this is how I would like to describe MIN defensive identity: mean and big. For instance, Nix is 231lbs, same as Dray Green, Clark is a big guard, TSJ is 220lbs. They all are big and strong. They fit right here where we left our last season:
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#318 » by minimus » Tue Jul 16, 2024 6:12 pm

First, watch this:


Then, watch this:


You see it too, don't you?
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#319 » by minimus » Mon Jul 22, 2024 8:25 am



Who remember that first regular season game vs TOR? I remember that that kind of tempered my expectation about new season lol. McDaniels did not play, Anderson played 30 min, and Milton played 20 min. And that game quickly turned into ugly low scoring game. MIN got killed in transition and lost the ball many times. I use this game as an example of stylistic contradictions that last season team had:

- a very frountcourt heavy roster, lack of shooter and quality wings and proven ballhandlers. In this particular game without McDaniles, Anderson had protective glasses and problems with eyesight, Milton was backup PG, NAW started as McDaniels replacement in starting five. Having two slowfooted bigs in starting unit meant that any TOR fastbreak would end up as easy points, because TOR had Anunoby, Siakam and Barnes as oversized wings. Plus Achiuwa is very quick for forward/undesized big. NAW is also not very effective in transition.

Entering this regular season we might have a completely different situation:

1) TC not only kept first, lets call it "stay big play slow" identity which has been Gobert-Towns-McDaniels-Conley-NAW group, but also signed Ingles who is literally the best available option on the market who knows how to make an offense around Gobert work

2) TC drafted Shannon, who might by far the best player in transition from this draft. And also he can be the best two way wing and most ready player of 2024 draft. TC drafted Dilly who has shown in SL that he is already a solid playmaker, especially in transition. I also like Clark potential a lot as enforcer from the bench. Jalen in SL has been menace in defence and a very effective player in transition because he is big, strong and athletic enough to finish fastbreaks. I also noticed how in last SL game against ORL, MIN energy, physicality level in defense and offense was significantly lower without TSJ and Clark. These new players might form a completely new (from stylistic point of view) unit: a very dynamic bench unit where all of them can run in transition and shoot. I think that Reid and Edwards fit here right away.

To sum up, right now, MIN might grow as fusion of two basketball styles: "stay big play slow" and "run-n-gun". They finally have needed resources to make it work:

- I love Ingles because of passing and shooting
- I see TSJ potential as two-way big wing
- I see Rob potential as a dynamic playmaker
- I see why Reid and Edwards might thrive in "run-n-gun"
- and I hope that Towns might be mature enough to be a connective tissue for both styles
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Re: Identity crisis? 

Post#320 » by Klomp » Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:46 pm

minimus wrote:

Who remember that first regular season game vs TOR? I remember that that kind of tempered my expectation about new season lol. McDaniels did not play, Anderson played 30 min, and Milton played 20 min. And that game quickly turned into ugly low scoring game. MIN got killed in transition and lost the ball many times. I use this game as an example of stylistic contradictions that last season team had:

- a very frountcourt heavy roster, lack of shooter and quality wings and proven ballhandlers. In this particular game without McDaniles, Anderson had protective glasses and problems with eyesight, Milton was backup PG, NAW started as McDaniels replacement in starting five. Having two slowfooted bigs in starting unit meant that any TOR fastbreak would end up as easy points, because TOR had Anunoby, Siakam and Barnes as oversized wings. Plus Achiuwa is very quick for forward/undesized big. NAW is also not very effective in transition.

Entering this regular season we might have a completely different situation:

1) TC not only kept first, lets call it "stay big play slow" identity which has been Gobert-Towns-McDaniels-Conley-NAW group, but also signed Ingles who is literally the best available option on the market who knows how to make an offense around Gobert work

2) TC drafted Shannon, who might by far the best player in transition from this draft. And also he can be the best two way wing and most ready player of 2024 draft. TC drafted Dilly who has shown in SL that he is already a solid playmaker, especially in transition. I also like Clark potential a lot as enforcer from the bench. Jalen in SL has been menace in defence and a very effective player in transition because he is big, strong and athletic enough to finish fastbreaks. I also noticed how in last SL game against ORL, MIN energy, physicality level in defense and offense was significantly lower without TSJ and Clark. These new players might form a completely new (from stylistic point of view) unit: a very dynamic bench unit where all of them can run in transition and shoot. I think that Reid and Edwards fit here right away.

To sum up, right now, MIN might grow as fusion of two basketball styles: "stay big play slow" and "run-n-gun". They finally have needed resources to make it work:

- I love Ingles because of passing and shooting
- I see TSJ potential as two-way big wing
- I see Rob potential as a dynamic playmaker
- I see why Reid and Edwards might thrive in "run-n-gun"
- and I hope that Towns might be mature enough to be a connective tissue for both styles

I think this is a pretty good analysis.

I know the Toronto game isn't a great example of what I'm trying to say, but Minnesota struggled when it had to try to outscore teams. There just weren't enough scoring threats, especially in transition but also in halfcourt sets. When the opponent scored 120 or more points, Minnesota was 2-12.

We had to find more ways to get easy buckets. Transition offense was a major weakness; enter Shannon and Dillingham. Optimizing Gobert on offense was a major weakness; enter Joe Ingles.
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