Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[minimus]

A few other names who fit the defensive identity, who maybe aren't to their full potential and their teams might be willing to deal at the deadline:

Jevon Carter?
Jose Alvarado?

Killian Hayes, offensively he can be bad (although he’s had a few big scoring games) but Pistons fans always talk about how he makes things happen for them with his defense.

Hayes also fits definition of big guard something that Finch would like to have from the bench. But Hayes is also one of the worst guards in offense in entire NBA. So has been Milton this season and so was Nowell. I'd rather get Delon Wright how is a solid defender.

[Klomp]

Killian Hayes, offensively he can be bad (although he’s had a few big scoring games) but Pistons fans always talk about how he makes things happen for them with his defense.

Hayes is interesting. Markelle Fultz probably would be too. Both are kind of built in the way that former Tim Connelly draft pick Emmanuel Mudiay was. I’m not sure if that fact makes them more or less likely.

I personally think Jalen Suggs would be a great fit, but that would probably cost either Karl-Anthony Towns or Jaden McDaniels at this point.

People around draft time talked about OKC’s Jalen Williams having some PG abilities, but that would be expensive and unconventional. In the past I have been intrigued by the fit of Giddey, but I’m not touching that any longer.

[shrink]

Let's drop the hyperbole for a minute. What's the actual scenario that's going to play out if we go over the luxury tax this season?

Nice post by Domejandro, but let me put a few numbers to it.

Suppose we want to add a $5 mil player this season and we’re right at the threshold. That player would cost $5 mil in salary, $7.5 mil in lux taxes, and we’d lose our right to our lux share, the slice of lux taxes. I’m going to guess that’s $5 mil in cash, so a $5 mil player would cost $17.5 mil. Rough, hard to outbid a team that might pay $10 mil for the useful guy, but doable. Most teams that are legit contenders - the teams we’d need to beat - have total payrolls well over the luxury threshold.

Now, suppose we are considering adding a $5 mil guy once the repeater kicks in. Our payroll is already going to be staying up through the roof, but let’s say we stay just under the second apron, and at that time, it’s $20 mil over the lux threshold. The player still costs $5 mil, the lux taxes alone are x3.75 so +$18.75, and the repeater at that level is x4.75, so +$23.75. The final cost for adding that $5 mil player would be $47.5 million dollars! And this would be in addition to the penalties for going over the second apron!

I agree with your broad position. Chances for true success in the NBA are rare, and teams need to go for it when they have a chance. However, the repeater tax is so severe that this removes a chance at a year down the line. The team would be so expensive that any owner wouldn’t just have to avoid adding players - he’d have to trade away good players. With Ant and Jaden (and KAT and Rudy might still be on this team in four years), we have a long window to be a great team, if the owners can afford to keep it together. I don’t think we’d take away a year down the road to add a minor player this season and start the clock on the repeater.

[twolves31]

Nembhard is much more valuable that that.

What do you think his worth is? What if this summer at the draft if we offered the 28th pick and the Lawnmower or the 28th pick and the Memphis 2nd round pick that should be a pretty high 2nd? I'm guessing they would for sure do Naz for Nembhard and pieces, but we wouldn't unless they are trying to avoid that 2nd apron.

[shrink]

Nembhard is much more valuable that that.

What do you think his worth is? What if this summer at the draft if we offered the 28th pick and the Lawnmower or the 28th pick and the Memphis 2nd round pick that should be a pretty high 2nd? I'm guessing they would for sure do Naz for Nembhard and pieces, but we wouldn't unless they are trying to avoid that 2nd apron.

He’d be their sixth or seventh man, and a spot starter. He’s cheap and he has lots of potential, and he’s one of those “low pick surprises on your team!”-feel good players that teams are loathe to give up. Naz Reid is our likely comp here, who is also blocked for full development on his current team. However, Nembhard has been worse this year, and his stellar rookie season may have been because he was playing next to Halliburton, rather than as his back up.

[Colbinii]

Let's drop the hyperbole for a minute. What's the actual scenario that's going to play out if we go over the luxury tax this season?

Nice post by Domejandro, but let me put a few numbers to it.

Suppose we want to add a $5 mil player this season and we’re right at the threshold. That player would cost $5 mil in salary, $7.5 mil in lux taxes, and we’d lose our right to our lux share, the slice of lux taxes. I’m going to guess that’s $5 mil in cash, so a $5 mil player would cost $17.5 mil. Rough, hard to outbid a team that might pay $10 mil for the useful guy, but doable. Most teams that are legit contenders - the teams we’d need to beat - have total payrolls well over the luxury threshold.

Now, suppose we are considering adding a $5 mil guy once the repeater kicks in. Our payroll is already going to be staying up through the roof, but let’s say we stay just under the second apron, and at that time, it’s $20 mil over the lux threshold. The player still costs $5 mil, the lux taxes alone are x3.75 so +$18.75, and the repeater at that level is x4.75, so +$23.75. The final cost for adding that $5 mil player would be $47.5 million dollars! And this would be in addition to the penalties for going over the second apron!

I agree with your broad position. Chances for true success in the NBA are rare, and teams need to go for it when they have a chance. However, the repeater tax is so severe that this removes a chance at a year down the line. The team would be so expensive that any owner wouldn’t just have to avoid adding players - he’d have to trade away good players. With Ant and Jaden (and KAT and Rudy might still be on this team in four years), we have a long window to be a great team, if the owners can afford to keep it together. I don’t think we’d take away a year down the road to add a minor player this season and start the clock on the repeater.

I don't think there is a chance the Timberwolves go into the Tax. They are currently $2.3 Million below the tax line. Shake and Moore combined make $7.42 Million, giving the Wolves $9.72 Million to work with. Mclaughlin gives them another $2.3 Million to work with, putting them at $12.02 Million while TBJ puts them at $16.02 Million. The Timberwolves alsohave TBJ, SlowMo, Minott and Miller to work with, but that would completely eradicate their bench/depth.

I do think it makes sense to bolster the Top 9.

ANT
Jaden
Conley
Towns
Gobert
NAW
SlowMo
Reid
Player X

Player X is who they need to add.

Here are a handful of players who fit under the $16.02 Million but would require TBJ in a trade [> $12.02 Million]
-Kevin Huerter - 3-Point Maestro with unlimited range, cuts/back-cuts, connector offensively, owed $17 + $18 Million over the next 2 seasons [2025 & 2026]
-Luka Kennard - 3-Point Bomber, slightly worse version of Huerter, expiring contract
-Tyus Jones - 3 Point Shooter, Lead-Guard playmaker and table settle, Poor Man's Mike Conley, expiring contract
-Doug McDermott - 3 Point Shooter

Players < $12.02 Million
-Coby White - Scoring Guard, under contract next few seasons
-Joe Ingles - Synergy with Gobert/COnley, great 3P Shooter, Veteran, Expiring Contract
-Gabe Vibcent - 3+D POA Defender, Signed with LAL this off-season, has been injured and not great, owed $11 and $11.5 Million next 2 seasons
-Monte Morris - $9.8 Million expiring, similar to Tyus Jones

[minimus]

Here are a handful of players who fit under the $16.02 Million but would require TBJ in a trade [> $12.02 Million]
-Kevin Huerter - 3-Point Maestro with unlimited range, cuts/back-cuts, connector offensively, owed $17 + $18 Million over the next 2 seasons [2025 & 2026]
-Luka Kennard - 3-Point Bomber, slightly worse version of Huerter, expiring contract
-Tyus Jones - 3 Point Shooter, Lead-Guard playmaker and table settle, Poor Man's Mike Conley, expiring contract
-Doug McDermott - 3 Point Shooter

Players < $12.02 Million
-Coby White - Scoring Guard, under contract next few seasons
-Joe Ingles - Synergy with Gobert/COnley, great 3P Shooter, Veteran, Expiring Contract
-Gabe Vibcent - 3+D POA Defender, Signed with LAL this off-season, has been injured and not great, owed $11 and $11.5 Million next 2 seasons
-Monte Morris - $9.8 Million expiring, similar to Tyus Jones

I don't see any point to trade TBJ who is on a good contract this year and next year, in order to get these players.

[shrink]

Nice post. I think we can eliminate the players that make over $12 mil. Legally we could make a consolidation trade , but it would require us to add vet min free agents to bring us back to the 14 man minimum roster size.

Troy Brown Jr. $4,000,000

Shake Milton $5,000,000
Wendell Moore Jr. $2,421,720
Jordan McLaughlin $2,320,000
Daishen Nix $2,019,706
Leonard Miller $1,800,000
Josh Minott $1,719,864

For example, we could add Shake, WMJ and McLaughlin to bring back a $10 mil player, but we’d need to add to two more players in free agency (estimate $2 mil, pro-rated) to get back to the 14, so the trade would send out $10 and bring back $14. And I agree with you, that there is little chance that Tim Connelly takes the Wolves into the lux this year.

I agree we could use a ninth man, particularly one with PG skills. But it’s tough to find a rotation-level player that’s on a contract that’s cheap enough for us to add to this roster.

Thanks for presenting some specific names.

[Colbinii]

Here are a handful of players who fit under the $16.02 Million but would require TBJ in a trade [> $12.02 Million]
-Kevin Huerter - 3-Point Maestro with unlimited range, cuts/back-cuts, connector offensively, owed $17 + $18 Million over the next 2 seasons [2025 & 2026]
-Luka Kennard - 3-Point Bomber, slightly worse version of Huerter, expiring contract
-Tyus Jones - 3 Point Shooter, Lead-Guard playmaker and table settle, Poor Man's Mike Conley, expiring contract
-Doug McDermott - 3 Point Shooter

Players < $12.02 Million
-Coby White - Scoring Guard, under contract next few seasons
-Joe Ingles - Synergy with Gobert/COnley, great 3P Shooter, Veteran, Expiring Contract
-Gabe Vibcent - 3+D POA Defender, Signed with LAL this off-season, has been injured and not great, owed $11 and $11.5 Million next 2 seasons
-Monte Morris - $9.8 Million expiring, similar to Tyus Jones

I don't see any point to trade TBJ who is on a good contract this year and next year, in order to get these players.

Yeah, me neither, I was just throwing out all the options as transparency is crucial on a forum.

You can simply focus on the bottom group, which as I stated, doesn't include TBJ salary

[Colbinii]

Nice post. I think we can eliminate the players that make over $12 mil because any trade we did to consolidate would require us to add vet min free agents to bring us back to the 14 man minimum roster size.

Troy Brown Jr. $4,000,000

Shake Milton $5,000,000
Wendell Moore Jr. $2,421,720
Jordan McLaughlin $2,320,000
Daishen Nix $2,019,706
Leonard Miller $1,800,000
Josh Minott $1,719,864

For example, we could add Shake, WMJ and McLaughlin to bring back a $10 mil player, but we’d need to add to two more players in free agency (estimate $2 mil, pro-rated) to get back to the 14, so the trade would send out $10 and bring back $14.

I agree we could use a ninth man, particularly one with PG skills. But it’s tough to find a rotation-level player that’s on a contract that’s cheap enough for us to add to this roster.

Ingles and Morris both fit that mold well.

With Ingles, while he is older, he is savvy. One of ANT/NAW/Jaden/SlowMo/TBJ take primacy as the POA defender when Ingles is in the game. Ingles is like an offensive version of SlowMo.

Monte is simply a good back-up PG who is expiring.

[Kineto]

What is the reference date for calculating the Luxury Tax? It seems to me to be the end of the regular season, but how is it calculated?

Are the players' salaries prorated according to the time spent in the team, or is the payroll just considered according to the annual salaries of the players present at the deadline?

In fact, I'm wondering if it's possible to go over the limit during the regular season, and make a salary dump at the end of the season to get back under the limit?

[KGdaBom]

What is the reference date for calculating the Luxury Tax? It seems to me to be the end of the regular season, but how is it calculated?

Are the players' salaries prorated according to the time spent in the team, or is the payroll just considered according to the annual salaries of the players present at the deadline?

In fact, I'm wondering if it's possible to go over the limit during the regular season, and make a salary dump at the end of the season to get back under the limit?

IIRC you can make a salary dump late in the season to get under the limit, but I'm stupid about this stuff so don't take my word for it.

[Klomp]

What is the reference date for calculating the Luxury Tax? It seems to me to be the end of the regular season, but how is it calculated?

Are the players' salaries prorated according to the time spent in the team, or is the payroll just considered according to the annual salaries of the players present at the deadline?

In fact, I'm wondering if it's possible to go over the limit during the regular season, and make a salary dump at the end of the season to get back under the limit?

It's literally the amount paid out by the team over the course of the season. NBA players are paid every few weeks, just like everyone else. Those paychecks are all added together.

[Colbinii]

In fact, I'm wondering if it's possible to go over the limit during the regular season, and make a salary dump at the end of the season to get back under the limit?

Sure, but you can't dump salary after the trade deadline.

It is very straight forward. Just use Spotrac. Unlikely Incentives don't count against the Tax. Likely incentives do.

[Colbinii]

What is the reference date for calculating the Luxury Tax? It seems to me to be the end of the regular season, but how is it calculated?

Are the players' salaries prorated according to the time spent in the team, or is the payroll just considered according to the annual salaries of the players present at the deadline?

In fact, I'm wondering if it's possible to go over the limit during the regular season, and make a salary dump at the end of the season to get back under the limit?

It's literally the amount paid out by the team over the course of the season. NBA players are paid every few weeks, just like everyone else. Those paychecks are all added together.

Nope. It is salary at end of season.

Generally speaking, luxury tax penalties are calculated by determining a team’s total cap hits at the end of the regular season.

[Colbinii]

Let's say a team has a 300 Million Salary. They would pay MORE than the Tax by the trade deadline, but if they traded enough players at the trade deadline to get under whatever the Tax Limit is, then the team wouldn't pay any Tax.

[shangrila]

This isn’t “prioritizing the future”, as much as being realistic about Minnesota’s cap situation. Going into the Luxury-Tax for a marginal upgrade would be exceptionally irresponsible, given Minnesota’s financial obligations, moving forward. Minnesota doesn’t have the assets (Or matching contracts) for a substantial upgrade anyways, but diving into the Luxury-Tax and starting the timer on the Repeater Tax would be an insane mistake to make.

I get the sentiment behind throwing caution to the wind, but we are talking about completely nuking the team’s entire ability to function moving forward. It just wouldn’t be wise, I can’t overstate how obscene the Repeater Tax penalties are, Minnesota would have to completely nuke their roster.

Let's drop the hyperbole for a minute. What's the actual scenario that's going to play out if we go over the luxury tax this season?

It's not hyperbole, dipping into the Luxury-Tax this season (barring a substantial upgrade) would be ludicrously irresponsible, financially. Without resigning Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, or Jordan McLaughlin and waiving Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton, Minnesota is locked in to pay over $177 million dollars in salaries next season and $182 million (declining Wendell Moore Jr.'s Team Option and not resigning Nickeil Alexander-Walker) the following year, depending on the Player options of Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid. Both figures project to already be higher the NBA Luxury-Tax for those respective seasons.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker / Jaylen Clarke (2WP)
Anthony Edwards / Wendell Moore Jr.
Jaden McDaniels / Josh Minott
Karl-Anthony Towns / Leonard Miller
Rudy Gobert / Naz Reid

and

???
Anthony Edwards /
Jaden McDaniels / Josh Minott
Karl-Anthony Towns / Leonard Miller
Rudy Gobert (PO) / Naz Reid (PO)

Those are the bones of already Luxury-Tax paying teams, without considering Draft picks and filling roster spots. The suggestion that the new ownership can afford the ludicrous Repeater-Tax penalties (which you can look up) for teams that are (likely going to be) tens of millions of dollars over the Luxury-Tax during the next two seasons for a relatively minor upgrade this season is completely untenable in every way. Minnesota fans should absolutely be expecting the team to dodge the Luxury-Tax, this season.

This missed what I was really driving at, although it raises further questions.

Regarding what I was looking for; what, specifically, will happen in your mind? Do we have to trade guys for salary relief? Is that Rudy? KAT? Naz? How bad does that look? Your exact words were "we are talking about completely nuking the team’s entire ability to function moving forward", that seems catastrophic. If it isn't hyperbole, do you expect the team to shutdown? If we're going to discuss this further let's talk specifics.

And to add, so we're already a luxury team to begin with? Why is nobody freaking out already then? Our new owners apparently can't afford the team as is, what faith do any of you have that they'll pay the luxury tax at all?

A "relatively minor upgrade" might be the difference between the championship. We can also make moves in the future to duck the tax at that time. Hell, if we do win the championship we could trade everyone not named Edwards or McDaniels for salary relief for all I care.

[Colbinii]

Let's drop the hyperbole for a minute. What's the actual scenario that's going to play out if we go over the luxury tax this season?

It's not hyperbole, dipping into the Luxury-Tax this season (barring a substantial upgrade) would be ludicrously irresponsible, financially. Without resigning Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, or Jordan McLaughlin and waiving Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton, Minnesota is locked in to pay over $177 million dollars in salaries next season and $182 million (declining Wendell Moore Jr.'s Team Option and not resigning Nickeil Alexander-Walker) the following year, depending on the Player options of Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid. Both figures project to already be higher the NBA Luxury-Tax for those respective seasons.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker / Jaylen Clarke (2WP)
Anthony Edwards / Wendell Moore Jr.
Jaden McDaniels / Josh Minott
Karl-Anthony Towns / Leonard Miller
Rudy Gobert / Naz Reid

and

???
Anthony Edwards /
Jaden McDaniels / Josh Minott
Karl-Anthony Towns / Leonard Miller
Rudy Gobert (PO) / Naz Reid (PO)

Those are the bones of already Luxury-Tax paying teams, without considering Draft picks and filling roster spots. The suggestion that the new ownership can afford the ludicrous Repeater-Tax penalties (which you can look up) for teams that are (likely going to be) tens of millions of dollars over the Luxury-Tax during the next two seasons for a relatively minor upgrade this season is completely untenable in every way. Minnesota fans should absolutely be expecting the team to dodge the Luxury-Tax, this season.

This missed what I was really driving at, although it raises further questions.

Regarding what I was looking for; what, specifically, will happen in your mind? Do we have to trade guys for salary relief? Is that Rudy? KAT? Naz? How bad does that look? Your exact words were "we are talking about completely nuking the team’s entire ability to function moving forward", that seems catastrophic. If it isn't hyperbole, do you expect the team to shutdown? If we're going to discuss this further let's talk specifics.

And to add, so we're already a luxury team to begin with? Why is nobody freaking out already then? Our new owners apparently can't afford the team as is, what faith do any of you have that they'll pay the luxury tax at all?

A "relatively minor upgrade" might be the difference between the championship. We can also make moves in the future to duck the tax at that time. Hell, if we do win the championship we could trade everyone not named Edwards or McDaniels for salary relief for all I care.

No, the Timberwolves do not need to trade anyone at the moment.

[KGdaBom]

It's not hyperbole, dipping into the Luxury-Tax this season (barring a substantial upgrade) would be ludicrously irresponsible, financially. Without resigning Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, or Jordan McLaughlin and waiving Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton, Minnesota is locked in to pay over $177 million dollars in salaries next season and $182 million (declining Wendell Moore Jr.'s Team Option and not resigning Nickeil Alexander-Walker) the following year, depending on the Player options of Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid. Both figures project to already be higher the NBA Luxury-Tax for those respective seasons.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker / Jaylen Clarke (2WP)
Anthony Edwards / Wendell Moore Jr.
Jaden McDaniels / Josh Minott
Karl-Anthony Towns / Leonard Miller
Rudy Gobert / Naz Reid

and

???
Anthony Edwards /
Jaden McDaniels / Josh Minott
Karl-Anthony Towns / Leonard Miller
Rudy Gobert (PO) / Naz Reid (PO)

Those are the bones of already Luxury-Tax paying teams, without considering Draft picks and filling roster spots. The suggestion that the new ownership can afford the ludicrous Repeater-Tax penalties (which you can look up) for teams that are (likely going to be) tens of millions of dollars over the Luxury-Tax during the next two seasons for a relatively minor upgrade this season is completely untenable in every way. Minnesota fans should absolutely be expecting the team to dodge the Luxury-Tax, this season.

This missed what I was really driving at, although it raises further questions.

Regarding what I was looking for; what, specifically, will happen in your mind? Do we have to trade guys for salary relief? Is that Rudy? KAT? Naz? How bad does that look? Your exact words were "we are talking about completely nuking the team’s entire ability to function moving forward", that seems catastrophic. If it isn't hyperbole, do you expect the team to shutdown? If we're going to discuss this further let's talk specifics.

And to add, so we're already a luxury team to begin with? Why is nobody freaking out already then? Our new owners apparently can't afford the team as is, what faith do any of you have that they'll pay the luxury tax at all?

A "relatively minor upgrade" might be the difference between the championship. We can also make moves in the future to duck the tax at that time. Hell, if we do win the championship we could trade everyone not named Edwards or McDaniels for salary relief for all I care.

No, the Timberwolves do not need to trade anyone at the moment.

It seems we are doing a very good job with cap management. Kudos to Connelly and the financial staff of the Wolves.

[shangrila]

Let's drop the hyperbole for a minute. What's the actual scenario that's going to play out if we go over the luxury tax this season?

Nice post by Domejandro, but let me put a few numbers to it.

Suppose we want to add a $5 mil player this season and we’re right at the threshold. That player would cost $5 mil in salary, $7.5 mil in lux taxes, and we’d lose our right to our lux share, the slice of lux taxes. I’m going to guess that’s $5 mil in cash, so a $5 mil player would cost $17.5 mil. Rough, hard to outbid a team that might pay $10 mil for the useful guy, but doable. Most teams that are legit contenders - the teams we’d need to beat - have total payrolls well over the luxury threshold.

Now, suppose we are considering adding a $5 mil guy once the repeater kicks in. Our payroll is already going to be staying up through the roof, but let’s say we stay just under the second apron, and at that time, it’s $20 mil over the lux threshold. The player still costs $5 mil, the lux taxes alone are x3.75 so +$18.75, and the repeater at that level is x4.75, so +$23.75. The final cost for adding that $5 mil player would be $47.5 million dollars! And this would be in addition to the penalties for going over the second apron!

I agree with your broad position. Chances for true success in the NBA are rare, and teams need to go for it when they have a chance. However, the repeater tax is so severe that this removes a chance at a year down the line. The team would be so expensive that any owner wouldn’t just have to avoid adding players - he’d have to trade away good players. With Ant and Jaden (and KAT and Rudy might still be on this team in four years), we have a long window to be a great team, if the owners can afford to keep it together. I don’t think we’d take away a year down the road to add a minor player this season and start the clock on the repeater.

This is where I think the divide is.

I don't believe that there is any guarantee we get another chance at a championship, certainly not over the life of Gobert's contract (which is where all this luxury talk comes from). If Conley leaves or declines, we're ****. If Anderson leaves, we're ****. If Miller and/or Minott don't develop, there goes our cheap depth. What if Ant has an injury that turns him into Derrick Rose?

For reference, I didn't nor am I saying that they MUST go over the tax this season. I just think the idea that they cannot under any circumstances do so is idiotic. If they're presented with a deal that improves them this season that takes them over, they should do it. Even better if it can carry over to the future (i.e. Tyus is only 27 so could be a long term piece). Make the moves to avoid the tax later.