Constructing the Timberwolves rotation

[minimus]

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Glad I'm not the only one

[K4P]

I'd argue we have about 7/8 legitimate NBA caliber rotation players on our roster on our roster right now (and 3 legit starters)

Russell--McLaughlin
Beasley--Okogie
N/A--Layman
N/A--Juancho
KAT--JJ

-Naz Reid, Culver, Crabbe, and probably Kelan aren't rotation players on a competitive NBA team.

- Layman(inconsistent offense), Okogie(Shooting) and, Juancho(Finishing/Size at the 4) all have their flaws that hold them back as starters, but they do enough to contribute at the NBA level. McLaughlin is pretty much locked in at backup point. James Johnson isn't a long term piece as well obviously.

NEEDS
--Big switchable wings that can shoot
--Secondary Playmaker
--Rebounding help/Interior size


The biggest reason I like the swing on Aaron Gordon is because he'd be able to fit multiple needs for the team. He can be a big athletic roller and interior presence/rebounder, while still being a "wing" in our system. AG is a pretty underrated passer and is too talented to be one-dimensional. The three ball is still concerning but I firmly believe being around better offensive talent could simplify the game for him. There isn't a player as talented as him available in this draft.

Watch on YouTube

I really think it could be another D'angelo Russell situation where you could get someone immensely talented for relatively cheap.

other big "wings" that could be available are Mo Harkless and Jerami Grant. I'm also pretty high on Sadiiq Bey with the Brooklyn pick.
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An elite NBA offense has to have multiple playmakers/shot creators. Russell is great, but he has obvious limitations putting pressure on the rim and creating space. I wouldn't be mad at someone like Deni Avidja being picked with our pick.

Watch on YouTube

His game is a bit unpolished, but he has legitimate potential as a high level secondary initiator/shot creator. He shows a nice feel for the game, and is pretty big and relatively mobile at 6'9 210.
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Wolves could draft Deni//Tre Jones, and deal Culver/JJ and the Brooklyn pick for AG.

Russell/ McLaughlin/Tre Jones
Beasley/ Okogie/ Nowell
Avidja/ Layman/ Kelan
AG/ Juancho/ 3rd Big
KAT/ Spellman/ Naz

OR keep all picks and draft Toppin/ Sadiiq Bey

Russell/ McLaughlin/Tre Jones
Beasley/ Okogie/ Nowell
Bey/ Layman/ Kelan
Toppin/ Juancho/ 3rd Big
KAT/ Spellman/ Naz

[shangrila]

You're all getting too attached to these guys. McLaughlin, Martin, even Juancho are all replaceable. Hell, I doubt anyone is safe aside from Russell/Towns and that includes Beasley.

[minimus]

You're all getting too attached to these guys. McLaughlin, Martin, even Juancho are all replaceable. Hell, I doubt anyone is safe aside from Russell/Towns and that includes Beasley.

You are right, they are all replaceable. However, one difference between Thibs management and Rosas is Gersson willingness to use partially guaranteed contracts to get the most. I have no issue with McLaughlin, Martin coming back on such deals. They are not elite talents, but both fit, understand the system. Also, Kelan Martin and D'Angelo Russell grew up together in Louisville.

[minimus]

Okay, I think I am ready to describe "a close to reality scenario" I'd be happy about.

Based on our usual luck in NBA draft lottery, we get top6 pick. We draft Hayes, Oturu. Resign Martin, Beasley, Juancho. Trade Culver, JJ, SRP for Aaron Gordon. Jae Crowder for MLE 32mil/4yrs.

KAT/Reid/Oturu
Gordon/Juancho/Layman
Crowder/Layman/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Nowell
DLo/Hayes/ML

Why Hayes? He seems to have the highest upside in top6-10 range
Why Oturu? Defensive minded big with potential
Why Gordon? An athletic rim runner, rebounder, versatile defender, solid passer
Why Crowder? A tough, defensive-minded veteran, a big, strong wing who can shoot open 3s.

[Jedzz]

Okay, I think I am ready to describe "a close to reality scenario" I'd be happy about.

Based on our usual luck in NBA draft lottery, we get top6 pick. We draft Hayes, Oturu. Resign Martin, Beasley, Juancho. Trade Culver, JJ, SRP for Aaron Gordon. Jae Crowder for MLE 32mil/4yrs.

KAT/Reid/Oturu
Gordon/Juancho/Layman
Crowder/Layman/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Nowell
DLo/Hayes/ML

Why Hayes? He seems to have the highest upside in top6-10 range
Why Oturu? Defensive minded big with potential
Why Gordon? An athletic rim runner, rebounder, versatile defender, solid passer
Why Crowder? A tough, defensive-minded veteran, a big, strong wing who can shoot open 3s.

The Crowder add is a big reason I wouldn't mind this. Adding him and Gordon together would change the physicality of the team. Don't know if Culver entices Magic in that deal or not, maybe need to make it two seconds or something. Maybe have a bunch of extra 2nds in 2022 to deal?

I still think McLaughlin is perfectly fine as the backup rotation PG. If you draft another one, that rookie should have to earn his way higher from the 3rd role or deeper yet. Mc has proved a lot already. This team has to stop lofting rookies into such high playing roles and start making them earn and prove the skills ready enough first. When Wolves already have Dlo signed longterm, it's no longer a position to draft planning to instantly play them. Kind of like it didn't help Cleveland to do so with Sexton (6-1, Pick 8) and Delli (6-3) , adding Garland (6-1, Pick 5) . Now they are using dual tiny PGs from the backcourt too often because they feel they need to play them all as top picks. Then they still end up having to add Exum(6-5). That team is getting punked for 120-140 pts every game, defensively they are just so small with those small guards playing so much.

Granted Hayes, Haliburton, Ball aren't that small. So maybe it's not the same. But having Dlo now, I think we have to be aware of that and how many minutes are left over. If those are the players available where the team is maybe they should be trading that high pick as long as the Brooklyn pick conveys. Not sure I want to have to play three 6-5 players together (Russell,Hayes, Beasley) because this team always feels it has to play its highest FRPs so much. Then again maybe it's perfect for this system, idk.

Another Killian the Wolves should maybe look at is Killian Tillie in the 2nd round if he makes it there. A PF/C who can shoot 3s.

[shrink]

I'd argue we have about 7/8 legitimate NBA caliber rotation players on our roster on our roster right now (and 3 legit starters)

Russell--McLaughlin
Beasley--Okogie
N/A--Layman
N/A--Juancho
KAT--JJ

-Naz Reid, Culver, Crabbe, and probably Kelan aren't rotation players on a competitive NBA team.

- Layman(inconsistent offense), Okogie(Shooting) and, Juancho(Finishing/Size at the 4) all have their flaws that hold them back as starters, but they do enough to contribute at the NBA level. McLaughlin is pretty much locked in at backup point. James Johnson isn't a long term piece as well obviously.

I think this is a good method to analyze our roster. I would include the caveat though that we are building around KAT (and to a lesser extent, Russell, because he is likely not going anywhere for a while) so we should evaluate these players through that lens.

I listened to Dane Moore’s recent podcast last night, and he was a guest with three DEN podcasters, who have been watching our new DEN additions (Beasley, Juancho, and Vanderbilt) for four years. One point they made on Beasley is that he’d be a decent starter on the Lakers, but on a team with Towns and Russell, he would make a better sixth man. He is an athletic man-defender, but gets lost frequently on team defense, which our team would need in addition to his three point shooting. Juancho is a good seventh man who’s willing to play his role. Both are getting big opportunities, and Juancho can play more confidently without worrying about being pulled whenever he makes a single mistake. There is upside in those situations, but right now, we may only have two bench rotation players there, and that means we only have two true nba starters.

Fortunately, I am encouraged by the development I have seen in our players, both here and especially in Iowa. As McLaughlin has shown, when they understand the system, they can become much better. Having only two starters means we have minutes to give to develop players, and that can either find us eventual answers, or we can develop younger players and benefit from their trade value. I hope to see a leap from both Culver and Okogie over the summer, when they can work on their shot mechanics. If we are going to put defenders out there to cover for the weaknesses of Towns and Russell, I am much more comfortable committing money on a rookie scale with great chance to grow than a poor shooting Aaron Gordon who is expensive, hasn’t developed right, and played his best season five years ago.

We had three goals at the start of the season. Establish an offensive identity. Establish a defensive identity. Create a system to develop players. I think the last one has been the most successful. We’re going to need it.

[shrink]

Do you view James Johnson as an offensive liability? Because he is a worse career 3-point shooter than Harkless.

So Klomp doesn't like James Johnson. Check

"career numbers" matter when Klomp is trying to disagree.

Did you know Russell is shooting worse threes now for the Wolves than he has since 2017? 35% so far here, and wouldn't you know it that just happens to be his career average as well.

Interesting to me since James Johnson is shooting 38% threes for Wolves now that he's attempting 3.5 a game. We should probably look at his 3pt % from his first 6 years right? ...when he averaged less than 1 attempt a game. Johnson has been a solid TS% since 13-14 season.

I've never said I don't like James Johnson. Quite the opposite actually.

My point in bringing him up is that some people believe any future target must be a great 3-point shooter to play in this system. Johnson is proof that the team will have interest in you even if you aren't considered an elite shooter and that career numbers aren't indicative of what a player can shoot in this system.

First, sample size makes it necessary to list everyone’s career three point shooting. It doesn’t mean they can’t get better (or worse), but particularly for players with low attempts, this should be listed regardless of who we are talking about.

I would take issue a bit with the idea that James Johnson indicates Rosas is looking for non-three point shooters. Remember, we gave up Dieng to get him, who was at best getting 10-14 Towns backup minutes, and at worst, getting no time as we devoted the rest of the season to evaluate Reid, Spellman, and maybe Vanderbilt. Dieng is a better player, but he’s more expensive and less useful to the Wolves. Moreover, when we traded actual assets this deadline, virtually every player we brought in could shoot three’s.

[Jedzz]

You're all getting too attached to these guys. McLaughlin, Martin, even Juancho are all replaceable. Hell, I doubt anyone is safe aside from Russell/Towns and that includes Beasley.

I think the point to be made with McLaughlin is that he is good enough for the backup PG role and comes at a great value for the role. This works because the Wolves have chosen a max player in Dlo longterm now. If we could consider for a few minutes that this position is more solidified than we once believed early in the season, maybe we could focus more on getting some larger wings that can shoot the lights out for once.

[Colbinii]

You're all getting too attached to these guys. McLaughlin, Martin, even Juancho are all replaceable. Hell, I doubt anyone is safe aside from Russell/Towns and that includes Beasley.

I disagree. Martin and McLaughlin have proven they can be effective in our system and cost virtually nothing to bring back.

Most of the best teams develop their bench and role players from within.

[shrink]

You're all getting too attached to these guys. McLaughlin, Martin, even Juancho are all replaceable. Hell, I doubt anyone is safe aside from Russell/Towns and that includes Beasley.

I think the point to be made with McLaughlin is that he is good enough for the backup PG role and comes at a great value for the role. This works because the Wolves have chosen a max player in Dlo longterm now. If we could consider for a few minutes that this position is more solidified than we once believed early in the season, maybe we could focus more on getting some larger wings that can shoot the lights out for once.

I agree with you both. Rosas showed at the deadline that he is perfectly willing to move on from players, even when there hasn’t been time to fully analyze them in this system.

I suspect we try to keep McLaughlin as our second or third PG, and we get him cheap. Maybe even a Hinkie special, with minimum’s each season on team options. The PG market is over-saturated with talent, so I think there won’t be any buyers, so he doesn’t have much leverage. In addition, he only has specific value to us because he is good at running our particular system, after 1.5 years of practice. $1.5 mil min is a lot of money to a player who is barely in the NBA, and could be out in a heartbeat.

[minimus]

Okay, I think I am ready to describe "a close to reality scenario" I'd be happy about.

Based on our usual luck in NBA draft lottery, we get top6 pick. We draft Hayes, Oturu. Resign Martin, Beasley, Juancho. Trade Culver, JJ, SRP for Aaron Gordon. Jae Crowder for MLE 32mil/4yrs.

KAT/Reid/Oturu
Gordon/Juancho/Layman
Crowder/Layman/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Nowell
DLo/Hayes/ML

Why Hayes? He seems to have the highest upside in top6-10 range
Why Oturu? Defensive minded big with potential
Why Gordon? An athletic rim runner, rebounder, versatile defender, solid passer
Why Crowder? A tough, defensive-minded veteran, a big, strong wing who can shoot open 3s.

The Crowder add is a big reason I wouldn't mind this. Adding him and Gordon together would change the physicality of the team. Don't know if Culver entices Magic in that deal or not, maybe need to make it two seconds or something. Maybe have a bunch of extra 2nds in 2022 to deal?

I still think McLaughlin is perfectly fine as the backup rotation PG. If you draft another one, that rookie should have to earn his way higher from the 3rd role or deeper yet. Mc has proved a lot already. This team has to stop lofting rookies into such high playing roles and start making them earn and prove the skills ready enough first. When Wolves already have Dlo signed longterm, it's no longer a position to draft planning to instantly play them. Kind of like it didn't help Cleveland to do so with Sexton (6-1, Pick 8) and Delli (6-3) , adding Garland (6-1, Pick 5) . Now they are using dual tiny PGs from the backcourt too often because they feel they need to play them all as top picks. Then they still end up having to add Exum(6-5). That team is getting punked for 120-140 pts every game, defensively they are just so small with those small guards playing so much.

Granted Hayes, Haliburton, Ball aren't that small. So maybe it's not the same. But having Dlo now, I think we have to be aware of that and how many minutes are left over. If those are the players available where the team is maybe they should be trading that high pick as long as the Brooklyn pick conveys. Not sure I want to have to play three 6-5 players together (Russell,Hayes, Beasley) because this team always feels it has to play its highest FRPs so much. Then again maybe it's perfect for this system, idk.

Another Killian the Wolves should maybe look at is Killian Tillie in the 2nd round if he makes it there. A PF/C who can shoot 3s.

I have the same concerns about having too many rookies who need both playing time and opportunities to develop. This is why I'd trade Culver and keep Okogie. Culver seems to play better with the ball, while Josh does better off the ball. Between DLo and Beasley we really could use unselfish, big combo-guard who can defend and shoot. A Malcolm Brogdon, Shaun Livingston type player. Sounds like Haliburton? But with Hayes, I just go higher potential. I believe that we need another creator because of DLo/Beasley architype. They are more shooters than slashers. I wish Culver can fix his jumper, but it seems very unlikely to happen soon. Crowder is built like tank: 6'6.5" (6'9.25" wingspan), 241 lbs. He can provide us same defensive versatility as Gordon: he can play with Juancho, Layman. Gordon also can play with both Juancho and Layman.

Adding another two FRPs and SRP might not be ideal, but Rosas bought himself another year for internal development if KAT/DLo/Beasley group plays well together. But I'd strongly consider keeping ML, Martin, Spellman. They just seem to fit well and provide some kind of consistency. Especially Spellman who can finally give us some size in the paint.

[minimus]

Watch on YouTube

I know, guys, I know 1+3+1... But watching these highlights I can't stop thinking how different is our situation from first half of the season. I mean we played Teague, Culver, Okogie, Wiggins, Graham in lineup, many lineups included 2-3 below average shooters/passers at best. Teague-Wiggins-Graham, Culver-Wiggins-Okogie etc. We bricked shots at high rate, everyone was hating this.

Now we play two elite shooters from 3pt and from mid range, while Russell is also an elite passer. Juancho is an above average shooter, Reid is an average shooter.

How open stretch can be the floor with THREE elite 3pt shooters? KAT/DLo/Beasley are elite shooters. Maybe they are not proven, especially in playoffs but all signs are pointing in that direction. My question is does it really make sense to keep "pure" 1+3+1? I'd say we could use a guy like Bam Adebayo, because of following reasons:

1) we need a big who can set solid screens, IMO this should number one priority. Right now, Reid, Juancho, KAT slip after PnR. No one locks his opponent, no one drags opponent out of defensive position, out of rebounding position. See example of Theis, who locks opponent bigs giving BOS wings more room for attack
2) we need someone who will stretch towards the rim. BUT he must doing this by rolling/cutting hard/smart, we don't need traditional bruiser
3) we need interior defense and rotational help

Saying this I would be happy to see us shifting from pure "pure" 1+3+1 to hybrid offense/defense. Based on matchup we should be able to use either drop scheme in defense or zone. Based on matchup we should be able to either play run-n-gun or slow pace basketball. The biggest challenge here IMO is KAT/DLo/Beasley ability to elevate/unlock teammates. So we will be able to combine our strength (shooting/passing) with defensive skills of role players.

[mandurugo]

The wolves improved their 3 point shooting, which should dramatically improve their spacing... except I don't think they have anyone left with driving skills now? Perhaps that's also something they need.

[Bruteque]

You're all getting too attached to these guys. McLaughlin, Martin, even Juancho are all replaceable. Hell, I doubt anyone is safe aside from Russell/Towns and that includes Beasley.

I think the point to be made with McLaughlin is that he is good enough for the backup PG role and comes at a great value for the role. This works because the Wolves have chosen a max player in Dlo longterm now. If we could consider for a few minutes that this position is more solidified than we once believed early in the season, maybe we could focus more on getting some larger wings that can shoot the lights out for once.

I agree with you both. Rosas showed at the deadline that he is perfectly willing to move on from players, even when there hasn’t been time to fully analyze them in this system.

I suspect we try to keep McLaughlin as our second or third PG, and we get him cheap. Maybe even a Hinkie special, with minimum’s each season on team options. The PG market is over-saturated with talent, so I think there won’t be any buyers, so he doesn’t have much leverage. In addition, he only has specific value to us because he is good at running our particular system, after 1.5 years of practice. $1.5 mil min is a lot of money to a player who is barely in the NBA, and could be out in a heartbeat.

Quick note on Hinkie special mechanics because I'm compulsive. =S The way it works is that, instead of signing a player who is trying to make it in the NBA to the minimum, you tempt them with a bit more money to sign a longer term deal with future years unguaranteed/TO.

The rookie year is especially crucial, because the rookie min is only in the $450-550,000 range (even lower in Hinkie days). An offer of, say, $1,200,000 guaranteed first-year money to make the prospect who has never been paid like that a sure millionaire can be a big temptation for a player who doesn't know whether he can make it in the NBA at all. Essentially, the team is leveraging that doubt to get the players to sign longer-term deals by offering just a little bit more money, which by NBA standards is chump change, but for a player who has never been paid on that scale, it's real money. How much above the minimum the team offers of course depends on how much doubt the player has on his ability to make it in the NBA.

The drawback is that, since it's not a minimum deal, the team can't use the minimum exception to sign these players, so another exception must be used (usually part of the bi-annual or the MLE, and if part of the MLE is used, then you don't have access to the full MLE that year).

With McLaughlin already looking like an actual NBA prospect, they will probably have to tempt him with a bit more than that to get him to sign on to unguaranteed/TO future years. Let's say double the vet min at $1.8 mil ish? There may still be enough doubt to get that done. The drawback does kick in, though. Rosas will have to use part of the MLE/BAE to do that deal.

[Klomp]

How open stretch can be the floor with THREE elite 3pt shooters? KAT/DLo/Beasley are elite shooters. Maybe they are not proven, especially in playoffs but all signs are pointing in that direction. My question is does it really make sense to keep "pure" 1+3+1? I'd say we could use a guy like Bam Adebayo, because of following reasons:

Well, to be honest, I think Adebayo actually fits into the 1-3-1 defensively because of his ability to switch onto perimeter guys. That to me is the biggest key for what bigger guys can do in this system. It's about the defense for me more than the offense. Looking just at MIA guys, I think Adebayo would be a better fit at PF than Olynyk.

[Klomp]

Towns and Reid at C (max starter, 1+3 backup)
Russell and McLaughlin at PG (max starter, hopeful 1+3 backup)

Use the other 11-13 roster spots to fill out SG, SF, PF.

[minimus]

Read on Twitter

Short roll in all his beauty. Cant imagine executing this with Teague, but DLo makes these passes look easy thanks to 6'9" wingspan and vision. Imagine Aaron Gordon rolling hard here.

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

Short roll in all his beauty. Cant imagine executing this with Teague, but DLo makes these passes look easy thanks to 6'9" wingspan and vision. Imagine Aaron Gordon rolling hard here.

Gordon wouldn't play here, they only use great 3-pointers in this system like Josh Okogie

[winforlose]

I'd argue we have about 7/8 legitimate NBA caliber rotation players on our roster on our roster right now (and 3 legit starters)

Russell--McLaughlin
Beasley--Okogie
N/A--Layman
N/A--Juancho
KAT--JJ

-Naz Reid, Culver, Crabbe, and probably Kelan aren't rotation players on a competitive NBA team.

- Layman(inconsistent offense), Okogie(Shooting) and, Juancho(Finishing/Size at the 4) all have their flaws that hold them back as starters, but they do enough to contribute at the NBA level. McLaughlin is pretty much locked in at backup point. James Johnson isn't a long term piece as well obviously.

NEEDS
--Big switchable wings that can shoot
--Secondary Playmaker
--Rebounding help/Interior size


The biggest reason I like the swing on Aaron Gordon is because he'd be able to fit multiple needs for the team. He can be a big athletic roller and interior presence/rebounder, while still being a "wing" in our system. AG is a pretty underrated passer and is too talented to be one-dimensional. The three ball is still concerning but I firmly believe being around better offensive talent could simplify the game for him. There isn't a player as talented as him available in this draft.

Watch on YouTube

I really think it could be another D'angelo Russell situation where you could get someone immensely talented for relatively cheap.

other big "wings" that could be available are Mo Harkless and Jerami Grant. I'm also pretty high on Sadiiq Bey with the Brooklyn pick.
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An elite NBA offense has to have multiple playmakers/shot creators. Russell is great, but he has obvious limitations putting pressure on the rim and creating space. I wouldn't be mad at someone like Deni Avidja being picked with our pick.

Watch on YouTube

His game is a bit unpolished, but he has legitimate potential as a high level secondary initiator/shot creator. He shows a nice feel for the game, and is pretty big and relatively mobile at 6'9 210.
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Wolves could draft Deni//Tre Jones, and deal Culver/JJ and the Brooklyn pick for AG.

Russell/ McLaughlin/Tre Jones
Beasley/ Okogie/ Nowell
Avidja/ Layman/ Kelan
AG/ Juancho/ 3rd Big
KAT/ Spellman/ Naz

OR keep all picks and draft Toppin/ Sadiiq Bey

Russell/ McLaughlin/Tre Jones
Beasley/ Okogie/ Nowell
Bey/ Layman/ Kelan
Toppin/ Juancho/ 3rd Big
KAT/ Spellman/ Naz

I disagree about Naz. While I do grant you he is not a starter, his scoring and floor spacing make him a valuable backup. Given his age and obvious inexperience, his development will definitely require time in the rotation next season. I agree we need a decent vet minimum big to play behind him in case of foul trouble or injury, but I do not think making him third string will improve the team.

Kelan Martin is an interesting case. His personal connection with Dlo could cause waives if we move on from him completely. That said, he shows flashes of potential I would for him to realize. I think we probably end up giving him a similar contract to Naz and Nowell and move him to the G league for a good chunk of next season. I do think he would be a more functional rotation player at the SG or SF than at the power forward (gotta love small ball,) but I agree he is not there yet.