minimus wrote:I call our offensive issues "The Three-Body Problem." (The three-body problem is a classic issue in physics and celestial mechanics involving the prediction of the motion of three gravitationally interacting bodies. Unlike the two-body problem, the three-body problem is notoriously difficult and chaotic, lacking a general analytical solution.) Our three main stars—Gobert, Towns, and Edwards—struggled to find a model where they could run the offense smoothly.
I dare to quote myself because I think I found a perfect example of MIN "The Three-Body Problem" and its solution. First I saw this video about evolution of pick-n-roll (as a side note you can think about recent Edwards words about skills of NBA players in old times) In a nutshell, nowdays even a simple pick-n-roll action is running at different speed than 20 years ago, with multiple secondary options. And NBA defenses have adopted, found ways to effectively stop simple pick-n-roll action by using, hedge, drop, ICE, etc.
Here is example of Spain pick-n-roll, I remember Harden running Spain pick-n-roll in HOU, but nowadays it is kind of normal play for any NBA team. Also this video shows how to defend it.
And here comes DAL vs. MIN Game 1, when both Doncic and Kyrie burned MIN's defense to death: starting with punishing DROP coverage, then exploiting cross matches in broken camp, and finally running double drag
On the one hand, the MIN defense was able to effectively execute DROP coverage with some mix of hedge/high wall. This gave them the best NBA defense in the regular season. However, they cannot adapt to high level DAL offense, which is a natural matchup for MIN DROP defense. On the other hand, the MIN offense did not execute high level offense enough to make it an effective weapon in the playoffs. And this is a perfect example of the Three-Body Problem: DAL ran double-drop action (Three-Body Model) that beat our defense, while MIN ran less effective offense because our three stars could not find synergy (Three-Body Problem Solution). The difference between the two processes is the end result of the series against Dallas.
What could be a next step for our defense?
First, as the video above suggests against the Spain pick-and-roll or double-drag screen, all three defenders should be alert and playing in sync.It takes time, repetition, and experience to create this chemistry. For example, it is clear that both Reid and Towns have improved a lot as defenders, but in terms of rotations and positional defense, they still have a lot of room to improve. Second, MIN needs to minimize possessions where Conley has to defend in the double-drag or Spanish pick-and-roll. DAL intentionally targeted Conley by using Derrick Jones Jr. as a second screener, forcing Conley to guess either tag rolling big or contest the perimeter shooter. And that, too, is part of a high-level offense: identifying and creating mismatches. The standard way to defend the double-drag screen is to switch the first and third defenders and have the second defender execute the drop. You can't do that with Conley. Finally, with Conley (and hopefully Rob) on the floor, MIN needs to avoid mismatches. You can find plenty of examples of how to do this. GSW uses all kinds of pre-switches, veer switches, etc. to protect Curry. To some extent, they do it because they don't have Gobert protecting the rim, but they compensate with high level defense.
