Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition

[TimberKat]

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I think it’s interesting that Minnesota was Ramona Shelburne and Zach Lowe’s both chose the Wolves as the team that was one piece away from being a contender, and interesting that Shelburne said that they could get that one star player by trading Towns, who has the value to bring back a star player.

Overall though, this seems like the typical superficial view that the national reporters have about the Timberwolves. ESPN is about ratings, so showing Anthony Edwards clips gets eyeballs - he could certainly be the heir apparent to their “Best New Thing” title that they tried to give to Ja. Note that the feature shows Ant clips, but they don’t use MIN in the title of the video - they use OKC. And while Ant is the most visible star they want to promote, any honest discussion of internal improvement for the team should at least mention Jaden McDaniels. Moreover, she touched on the Wolves needing to move Towns because of the expense, and then suggests Damian Lillard, who makes more than Towns the next three years?

I’m glad you shared this Klomp, because it’s encouraging to see MIN, or at least Edwards, getting some national pub. I agree with the sentiment that MIN has finally accumulated the talent to make a playoff run. But with so many national “experts” (who also barely follow the Wolves) thinking MIN is a play in team, it’s hard for me to suddenly take ESPN’s piece seriously.

I am thinking either we already got it with Naz, JMcD, Ant development, or that last trade being my mythical $30m player that can draw double teams. Trade KA+Conley for it (Towns, Gobert, JMcD, Ant, Mysterio as core). Maybe someone like Chris Paul or DeRozan?

[Klomp]

I really like Wallace as a secondary piece in a trade with OKC for KAT. He could be our long-term solution at PG if he develops in time. As a fan of KAT, I could easily get behind a trade that also includes Jalen Williams plus a couple FRP's. Such a trade would certainly improve OKC and strengthen them in the WC which should be a consideration.

(Getting Williams wouldn't solve our issue at PF moving forward but I'm a huge fan of his game and outside shooting.)

I really did not pay attention to Wallace before draft. But he looks like a defensive minded guard who can complete our tranformation into defense first group. Also that DEN-OKC trade makes me think that Sam Presti is already experiencing some overload issues with picks. He sent 2024 first- and second-round pick and a 2023 second-round pickto DEN for a protected 2029 first-round pick, converting 2023/2024 picks to 2029 pick. He has 35 picks in next draft, including 15 in first rounds. Outside of SGA he only has overpaid role players (Dort, Bertans and at some degree Kenrich Williams), players on rookie deals (Chet, Wallace, Williams, Dieng, Poku, Mann) and expiring (Guy. Oladipo). Presti can make a big splash, get Towns and will still have multiple picks.

P.S. As for starting PF position, I have some faith that Anderson will fill that role as temporary solution before both Miller and Minott will develop into NBA rotational players. What I really hope to find is an elite shooter.

OKC is in a bit of a precarious position, if they aren't careful. They have a ton of guys who are about to get paid, and also a number of draft picks that will need to fight for playing time in order to retain some semblance of value. It feels a lot like the last few years before Harden forced his way to Houston and Durant left for greener pastures.

In most places, Williams feels like he should be a centerpiece for the franchise. But so do SGA, Holmgren, Giddey, Dieng, Wallace, etc. Something will have to give at some point. A national writer wrote today that people are watching OKC's roster crunch for potential waivers when they wittle down the roster size. But it could also be an interesting opportunity for a roster consolidation trade. A core of SGA, Towns, Holmgren and Giddey is very intriguing, even if you're giving up some talent in the process. In some ways, a Towns trade to OKC could be the 2023 or 2024 equivalent of the 2022 Gobert trade. Consolidation, but you're getting the best player in the deal.

[younggunsmn]

1. If OKC were to try to trade for KAT, which I think they will not because of his contract, I would be very surprised if they offered anything other than expiring contracts and draft picks. They want to add to their core. None of Giddy, SGA, Wallace, WIlliams, Chet would be available.
Maybe Dieng or Dort, although I have no use for Dort.

2. The new CBA financial concerns are real.

The teams willing to pay big tax money in the past either have made the finals or are in big markets with owners with bottomless pockets (Clippers, Lakers, Warriors for example).
Bucks continue to pay huge tax bills, which is a bit surprising in their market, but they are trying to hang onto Giannis and win a title.
And the "supertax" is going to take away some of the avenues those teams used in the past.
For the first time, there will be real disincentives besides money for spending past a certain point.

Phoenix salary dumped a top tier backup PG on a cheap contract in Cam Payne because he had a 6.5 mil salary, but when luxury tax was taken into consideration it jumped to 23 million.
Miami, a team that had just been to the finals, let 2 young starters go for nothing, who signed for the MLE or less, because of tax concerns.
Miami was almost always a team that paid those guys in the past, sometimes to their detriment.
Duncan Robinson, Josh Richardson, Whiteside, Waiters, the list goes on and on.

3. KAT's contract goes 5 years out, Gobert's 3 years out. KAT's contract will affect the post-Gobert window, he will be 31 making 60+ million the first 2 years post-Gobert. A big part of this season is going to be seeing if KAT can be a long term partner for Ant.

4. This will be KAT's 9th year here, that's long time with one team in this league. It doesn't seem like it has been that long.
If he plays out this contract, he will have spent more time here than KG did. That's crazy.

Does he have another level after 8 years or have we already seen the best from him?
The increase in veteran savvy, maturity, and on-court awareness and execution that players normally gain to offset the erosion of their physical skills as they age, really has yet to manifest with KAT.
Does he understand this is where his next level is going to come from?
That the mental part of the game and not physical skill is what separates him from peers in his age group like Jokic and Embiid?

5. KAT and Gobert will eat into each other's value. Each may have good seasons, neither will put up the stats again together that they once did when they were the sole big. Last year we largely saw KAT taking a back seat and sacrificing his game.
His 14.8 FGA/game were the fewest since his rookie season. That can't continue.

I would like Gobert to take much more of a back seat this season on offense. Instead of rim running and chasing rolls all the time, I'd like to see him setting 6 or 7 picks each possession and giving other players access to the lane.
KAT, Ant, and Naz all can attack a big effectively. Finch needs to get more creative and fit his system more to his personnel.
If they are going to guard KAT with a small, have Gobert screen for him until you get the switch that you want.

6. KAT's problems in the playoffs and in big games are fair game for discussion. 3 terrible playoff series.
Pouting his way to 3 FGA's in a horrible late season loss to Portland's G-Leaguers.
He finished the Denver series strong (although with 2 foulouts), but the first 2 games were brutally awful.
I think it's going to take a good playoff performance for KAT to be back with us in 2024.

7. We have options to replace KAT we didn't have just a couple years ago. Gobert in the short term and Naz long term.
2 ascending 21-22 year olds and some solid veterans. With Ant extended, if we moved KAT we would no longer be trading away our franchise player. We had about the same level of success with or without KAT last year.
That spoke more to KAT's relative ineffectiveness/assertiveness than to his value as a player.

I don't think we should or will trade KAT unless or until the team experiences failure in the coming season.
But if we do experience that failure again, trading KAT is most likely the best way forward.
I just hope if that time comes, that it will be a basketball trade and we will get real value back that will help us long term.

[shrink]

For the first time, there will be real disincentives besides money for spending past a certain point.

We have had non-monetary disincentives ever since the first CBA was created, and the NBPA refused to agree to a hard cap.

The reason a salary cap was even created was to enact these disincentives. Over-the-cap teams faced many restrictions, among them salary matching in trades, the inability to renegotiate contracts, being limited to use exceptions once they pass the cap, and many more. The experts all believed that these penalties would limit the high spending teams, just like people thought with the introduction of the luxury tax would do, and now, the restrictions in the new CBA.

The problem is that teams want to win a title. That usual means paying superstars, and having as big a payroll as their competitors that also want that title. Teams grew to accept the initial penalties of going over the salary cap as simply a cost of doing business if they wanted to be a competitive team. Same thing happened with the lux tax.

The talking heads all report that this time, this time, they are going to be able to rein in excessive spending. I’ve heard this before. Twice. Let’s wait and see how much teams are willing to drop under the second apron when they are competing for a ring, and to generate public goodwill to get a new stadium built.

[shrink]

Speaking of OKC, can someone explain to me why SGA is just accepting this never-ending rebuild, and Presti’s refusal to cash in and get him some help. Why wasn’t he seething a couple years ago, when he had to sit out games at the end of the season to help with another year of tanking? They were just winning too often when he played.

Why isn’t he demanding either help or a trade?

[Neeva]

Speaking of OKC, can someone explain to me why SGA is just accepting this never-ending rebuild, and Presti’s refusal to cash in and get him some help. Why wasn’t he seething a couple years ago, when he had to sit out games at the end of the season to help with another year of tanking? They were just winning too often when he played.

Why isn’t he demanding either help or a trade?

because he’s Canadian and not as entitled? i don’t know. They need someone like Towns or Gobert.

[TimberKat]

Speaking of OKC, can someone explain to me why SGA is just accepting this never-ending rebuild, and Presti’s refusal to cash in and get him some help. Why wasn’t he seething a couple years ago, when he had to sit out games at the end of the season to help with another year of tanking? They were just winning too often when he played.

Why isn’t he demanding either help or a trade?

because he’s Canadian and not as entitled? i don’t know. They need someone like Towns or Gobert.

You guys want to turn him into Harden? I am glad he stayed and love to see him as Twolves too. OKC just turn the corner last year. Maybe the will package something middle of the season depending on how Holmgrem plays? I don't think Harden or Lillard doesn't make sense for them.

[Klomp]

Speaking of OKC, can someone explain to me why SGA is just accepting this never-ending rebuild, and Presti’s refusal to cash in and get him some help. Why wasn’t he seething a couple years ago, when he had to sit out games at the end of the season to help with another year of tanking? They were just winning too often when he played.

Why isn’t he demanding either help or a trade?

I'd be really curious to see what happens if OKC flatlines this season and doesn't make the playoffs yet again. Who gets the blame? For the record, they just extended their head coach so it might be hard for them to axe him.

[cmoss84]

Another point that needs to be considered is how well do people think KATs offensive game will age into his 30s. It seems as though his shooting won't decline? Will he pick up some additional Olajuwan moves? Will he figure out how to get to the line more? Will he be able to stay on the court?

[jpatrick]

Speaking of OKC, can someone explain to me why SGA is just accepting this never-ending rebuild, and Presti’s refusal to cash in and get him some help. Why wasn’t he seething a couple years ago, when he had to sit out games at the end of the season to help with another year of tanking? They were just winning too often when he played.

Why isn’t he demanding either help or a trade?

For my money, he’s a top 10 player in the NBA; but he’s soooo young still. Most players don’t start making demands until they’re prime. SGA was 24 until a week ago.

[cmoss84]

PS I'm sure this has been discussed many times. Just wanted to expand on it.

[Neeva]

Towns to OKC makes so much sense.
Towns/WMJ/Mclaughlin to OKC
Giddey/Dort/Wallace/5 FRPs/filler Oladipo? To Wolves

I think Ant and Giddey will be good together and McDaniels and Dort can be pests on defense. Wallace learns from Conley and takes over in a few seasons.


Conley/Wallace/Milton
Ant/Giddey/NAW
McDaniels/Dort/Minott
Anderson/Miller/Murphy jr
Gobert/Reid/Garza

[TimberKat]

Towns to OKC makes so much sense.
Towns/WMJ/Mclaughlin to OKC
Giddey/Dort/Wallace/5 FRPs/filler Oladipo? To Wolves

I think Ant and Giddey will be good together and McDaniels and Dort can be pests on defense. Wallace learns from Conley and takes over in a few seasons.


Conley/Wallace/Milton
Ant/Giddey/NAW
McDaniels/Dort/Minott
Anderson/Miller/Murphy jr
Gobert/Reid/Garza

Only if we also flip two of those picks for Herro. What is the point of the picks if we can trade for win now pieces and I don't want death weight salary unless trade for useful players.

[shrink]

Another point that needs to be considered is how well do people think KATs offensive game will age into his 30s. It seems as though his shooting won't decline? Will he pick up some additional Olajuwan moves? Will he figure out how to get to the line more? Will he be able to stay on the court?

I’m sure he won’t get the same lift on his jumpshot three pointers.

[shrink]

Towns to OKC makes so much sense.
Towns/WMJ/Mclaughlin to OKC
Giddey/Dort/Wallace/5 FRPs/filler Oladipo? To Wolves

I think Ant and Giddey will be good together and McDaniels and Dort can be pests on defense. Wallace learns from Conley and takes over in a few seasons.


Conley/Wallace/Milton
Ant/Giddey/NAW
McDaniels/Dort/Minott
Anderson/Miller/Murphy jr
Gobert/Reid/Garza

Only if we also flip two of those picks for Herro. What is the point of the picks if we can trade for win now pieces and I don't want death weight salary unless trade for useful players.

I totally agree, and posted something similar on the Trade Board tonight.

Tim Connelly wants to win now, and reinforced that by trading future picks for Gobert. Aside from SGA, the Thunder only have win-later picks and prospects. These trades for appealing prospects excite message board fans, but I don’t think that’s Connelly’s goal.

Towns ability to score inside and outside so proficiently makes him a great player to pair with SGA, opening up his whole offensive game. But it’s the same reason that he pairs so well with Ant.

[Klomp]

I totally agree, and posted something similar on the Trade Board tonight.

Tim Connelly wants to win now, and reinforced that by trading future picks for Gobert. Aside from SGA, the Thunder only have won-later picks and prospects. These trades for appealing prospects excite message board fans, but I don’t think that’s Connelly’s goal.

Towns ability to score inside and outside so proficiently makes him a great player to pair with SGA, opening up his whole offensive game. But it’s the same reason that he pairs so well with Ant.

This is part of why I've made sure that any OKC offer includes someone like Williams (or Giddey in the past) and only one future pick. While yes they're younger prospects, they have the ability to step in right away and contribute on a good team. Dort may be another young talent for this reason, as something more than just salary filler.

Similarly, I'd guess that Presti wants to win too at some point, and will want to consolidate some of that talent. Maybe Towns is not that target, but as you said he's a seamless fit for SGA and a great frontcourt partner for Chet.

[minimus]

Ants timeline is now? Edwards is only 21yo, MCD is 22yo, Reid is 23yo, NAW is 24yo, Miller is 19yo, Minott is 20yo. Yes, Wade won championship with Shaq, but Wade was 24yo. Also that was different era in 2005-06. Rather than having one year in win-now mode with unclear prospects, I would re-invest assets to have multiple years of deep playoff runs with Edwards in his prime. Also a lot depends on whole trajectory of next season. Injuries, trades and opponent internal issues might open unique opportunity for us or completely close the window. Last year whole series of injuries was epithome of bad MIN luck. Looking at our status might be indeed very different in a distance of 6 monts from now.

Good points guys.

One of the best things about Ant is that he could have a number of years where he is a playoff caliber star. This is very unusual, because players generally don’t approach their prime until they are 27-28, so the Wolves could have a very long window.

To me, this also means that our local talking heads make way too much about timelines. Ant can be great with any timeline - and multiple timelines. In fact, Ant (and Jaden) make MIN one of the rare teams in the league that is NOT under pressure to trade for win-now talent. Teams like MIA, PHX, LAC, MIL can all see their stars getting old, and the window rapidly closing. If you believe KAT must be traded (and I do not), those are the ones that are forced to overpay the most, to win an auction against others with timeline issues. Moreover, I would point out that Towns is just 27 .. the age that stars enter their prime.

Your point about timelines is spot on. And I still believe that making that trade was the best thing they could have done for our young core, even though they overpaid. Playoff experience is everything. No, Edwards and McDaniels are not in their primes. But that's why it's so important to get to the playoffs at a young age, even if they are just first round exits. Those appearances are growing pains, but they are learning experiences. Michael Jordan had three first round exits in his first three seasons. They didn't make the Finals until the 7th season, when Jordan was 26.

I think of adding Gobert to the mix a lot like when Denver signed 32-year old Paul Millsap. Jokic was 22. Murray was 20. Harris was 23. Porter wasn't even on the roster yet. A 3/$90 million contract didn't make a lot of sense with the timeline for a team that already won 40 games the year before. But it was the boost they needed to get the young group to make another step in its development.

Millsap came to DEN after playing in ATL under coach Bud with Horford, Millsap brought his high IQ, veteran presence and stabilized frouncourt with young Jokic (on his rookie deal). I feel like this investment was a lot more organic, natural than Gobert trade, because Millsap fit was ideal. Also Millsap came after playing a lot motion offense, he was a team player, I wonder if short stint with Jeremi Grant, just like Bones Hyland trade identified to such type of players in DEN are not a good fit. I also remember that Aaron Gordon in ORL was trying to be a point forward, small forward, power forward, but without much success. He also was the fastest guy in draft combine among all participants. After years in ORL we saw that he did in championship series where he showed his versatilty: hitting threes, exploiting MIA in postups, passing the ball, playing small bal С etc.

What I am trying to say is that whole sequence of PFs next to Jokic was not only about talent, but mainly about fit and chemistry. Also Millsap contract was an overpay but not a supermax. I dont see much similarities. Also DEN always tried to have another big such as Plumlee, DeAndre. On other hand I cant stop thinking whether Kyle Anderson could have been a close to ideal PF next to Towns and McDaniels, while Kessler + Reid could fill backup C role... I am trying to slow down on Leonard Miller / Minott duo as future comboforwards, but the potential fit and talent is there. Maybe it should be this as kind of interrupted/forced development circle that was broken by Gobert trade. I wish Gobert trade was not a massive overpay, because if we had traded lets say two picks, we would have a few picks to trade AND no regrets to trade Gobert again. Honeslty I would be fine paying couple of draft picks to inject defensive mentality in this group even if we would have trade Gobert after 2023-24 season.

[minimus]

I totally agree, and posted something similar on the Trade Board tonight.

Tim Connelly wants to win now, and reinforced that by trading future picks for Gobert. Aside from SGA, the Thunder only have won-later picks and prospects. These trades for appealing prospects excite message board fans, but I don’t think that’s Connelly’s goal.

Towns ability to score inside and outside so proficiently makes him a great player to pair with SGA, opening up his whole offensive game. But it’s the same reason that he pairs so well with Ant.

This is part of why I've made sure that any OKC offer includes someone like Williams (or Giddey in the past) and only one future pick. While yes they're younger prospects, they have the ability to step in right away and contribute on a good team. Dort may be another young talent for this reason, as something more than just salary filler.

Similarly, I'd guess that Presti wants to win too at some point, and will want to consolidate some of that talent. Maybe Towns is not that target, but as you said he's a seamless fit for SGA and a great frontcourt partner for Chet.

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I dont want Dort in MIN if we trade Towns and keep Gobert. But, I see how Towns shooting will inject new life in OKC offense, with SGA, Dort and other bigs wings attacking the rim. SGA timeline is also an interesting story. I wonder if Presti does not feel any pressure at all in this regard. But I personally want Cason Wallace and miltiple picks and expirings contracts. I am not impressed by Giddey, Dieng, Williams fit here. I am not holding my breath to have let say 4-5 FRP for Towns, because I understand that they are assets to invest time and resources. But picks and cap relief will give us a lot of flexibility, and I hope TC will be creative enough to get maximum from them by making smart investments. Just to understand how many picks have OKC here are some of them:

In 2024: four picks (LAC, HOU, UTA, own)
In 2025: four picks (HOU or LAC, MIA, PHI, own)

These are 8(!!!) incoming young players in two years. They either will shorten development cycles or waive players or play without veterans or overpay someone to get to minimal payroll.

[frankenwolf]

We can’t make a panic trade.

This is why I am, right now, 100% against any KAT trade. Everything being proposed seems like a panic, pennies on the the $100 trades. What about Ant's timeline?? His timeline is now! It will just run longer than the KAT/Gobert front court. As far as I am concerned, trading KAT anytime during Ant's time here is not a good idea. Trading Gobert, especially next year in the final year of his contract, makes more sense for a long term, championship viable, team.

OTOH, if when the Timberwolves win the championship this year, it may be a wonderful thing to run it back again, nevermind the burdens/hurdles of the 2nd apron!

Ants timeline is now? Edwards is only 21yo, MCD is 22yo, Reid is 23yo, NAW is 24yo, Miller is 19yo, Minott is 20yo. Yes, Wade won championship with Shaq, but Wade was 24yo. Also that was different era in 2005-06. Rather than having one year in win-now mode with unclear prospects, I would re-invest assets to have multiple years of deep playoff runs with Edwards in his prime. Also a lot depends on whole trajectory of next season. Injuries, trades and opponent internal issues might open unique opportunity for us or completely close the window. Last year whole series of injuries was epithome of bad MIN luck. Looking at our status might be indeed very different in a distance of 6 monts from now.

Sure Ant's timeline is now, since KAT's timeline is now. Now is the time to get the experience of the playoffs and see how they respond to new pressures. Yes, we have the last two post seasons to base some projections on, but I am excited to see how playoff Ant meshes with playoff KAT when both are healthy.

Yes, injuries and everything can have a dramatic change in how the season plays out, but if everyone is reasonably healthy and performing to past standards, is there any reason why this team can't win a championship as constructed?

Also, since you brought up Wade, his title with Shaq was his third year. This is Ant's third year. To quote Mr. Garnett "ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!"

[m2002brian]

This is why I am, right now, 100% against any KAT trade. Everything being proposed seems like a panic, pennies on the the $100 trades. What about Ant's timeline?? His timeline is now! It will just run longer than the KAT/Gobert front court. As far as I am concerned, trading KAT anytime during Ant's time here is not a good idea. Trading Gobert, especially next year in the final year of his contract, makes more sense for a long term, championship viable, team.

OTOH, if when the Timberwolves win the championship this year, it may be a wonderful thing to run it back again, nevermind the burdens/hurdles of the 2nd apron!

Ants timeline is now? Edwards is only 21yo, MCD is 22yo, Reid is 23yo, NAW is 24yo, Miller is 19yo, Minott is 20yo. Yes, Wade won championship with Shaq, but Wade was 24yo. Also that was different era in 2005-06. Rather than having one year in win-now mode with unclear prospects, I would re-invest assets to have multiple years of deep playoff runs with Edwards in his prime. Also a lot depends on whole trajectory of next season. Injuries, trades and opponent internal issues might open unique opportunity for us or completely close the window. Last year whole series of injuries was epithome of bad MIN luck. Looking at our status might be indeed very different in a distance of 6 monts from now.

Sure Ant's timeline is now, since KAT's timeline is now. Now is the time to get the experience of the playoffs and see how they respond to new pressures. Yes, we have the last two post seasons to base some projections on, but I am excited to see how playoff Ant meshes with playoff KAT when both are healthy.

Yes, injuries and everything can have a dramatic change in how the season plays out, but if everyone is reasonably healthy and performing to past standards, is there any reason why this team can't win a championship as constructed?

Also, since you brought up Wade, his title with Shaq was his third year. This is Ant's third year. To quote Mr. Garnett "ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!"

This will be Ant’s fourth year. But that first year with Ryan doesn’t really count. What a waste of a season.