Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[Colbinii]

This is where I think the divide is.

I don't believe that there is any guarantee we get another chance at a championship, certainly not over the life of Gobert's contract (which is where all this luxury talk comes from). If Conley leaves or declines, we're ****. If Anderson leaves, we're ****. If Miller and/or Minott don't develop, there goes our cheap depth. What if Ant has an injury that turns him into Derrick Rose?

Nah, we would have the full MLE to work with if both Conley and SlowMo leave.

For reference, I didn't nor am I saying that they MUST go over the tax this season. I just think the idea that they cannot under any circumstances do so is idiotic. If they're presented with a deal that improves them this season that takes them over, they should do it. Even better if it can carry over to the future (i.e. Tyus is only 27 so could be a long term piece). Make the moves to avoid the tax later.

Buddy, the Timberwolves can get Tyus and stay under the tax.

[wolves_89]

Nice post. I think we can eliminate the players that make over $12 mil. Legally we could make a consolidation trade , but it would require us to add vet min free agents to bring us back to the 14 man minimum roster size.

Troy Brown Jr. $4,000,000

Shake Milton $5,000,000
Wendell Moore Jr. $2,421,720
Jordan McLaughlin $2,320,000
Daishen Nix $2,019,706
Leonard Miller $1,800,000
Josh Minott $1,719,864

For example, we could add Shake, WMJ and McLaughlin to bring back a $10 mil player, but we’d need to add to two more players in free agency (estimate $2 mil, pro-rated) to get back to the 14, so the trade would send out $10 and bring back $14. And I agree with you, that there is little chance that Tim Connelly takes the Wolves into the lux this year.

I agree we could use a ninth man, particularly one with PG skills. But it’s tough to find a rotation-level player that’s on a contract that’s cheap enough for us to add to this roster.

Thanks for presenting some specific names.

As you pointed out, aggregating Moore, McLauglin, Miller, or Minott (Nix is on a two-way so he doesn't count against the cap) doesn't buy much if any matching salary if the Wolves intend to stay under the luxury tax line. Trading one of them straight up for a similar salary works, but aggregating 2-3 of them makes little sense.

About the only realistic avenues to get an upgrade making over $3M would be trade Milton, Brown, or Anderson. Brown and Anderson are a good value and are contributing so any deal would need to bring back a better player on a similar contract, something which will likely be incredibly hard to do.

My best guess at this point is the Wolves make a 1-for-1 deal moving Shake or Moore for a player making $2-6M/year.

[minimus]

Lets another month for another fire sale of bottom teams... WAS, DET are early candidates..

[winforlose]

In fact, I'm wondering if it's possible to go over the limit during the regular season, and make a salary dump at the end of the season to get back under the limit?

Sure, but you can't dump salary after the trade deadline.

It is very straight forward. Just use Spotrac. Unlikely Incentives don't count against the Tax. Likely incentives do.

Are you sure about this? So if Mike gets his unlikely Wolves don’t get pushed 800,000 k away from the cap?

[Colbinii]

In fact, I'm wondering if it's possible to go over the limit during the regular season, and make a salary dump at the end of the season to get back under the limit?

Sure, but you can't dump salary after the trade deadline.

It is very straight forward. Just use Spotrac. Unlikely Incentives don't count against the Tax. Likely incentives do.

Are you sure about this? So if Mike gets his unlikely Wolves don’t get pushed 800,000 k away from the cap?

Correct. Unlikely incentives aren't tied to the Salary Cap or Tax.

[winforlose]

Sure, but you can't dump salary after the trade deadline.

It is very straight forward. Just use Spotrac. Unlikely Incentives don't count against the Tax. Likely incentives do.

Are you sure about this? So if Mike gets his unlikely Wolves don’t get pushed 800,000 k away from the cap?

Correct. Unlikely incentives aren't tied to the Salary Cap or Tax.

I thought you had to count them if you achieve them. Basically, no consequences for being there, but once reached they apply.

Edit to update: I have a buddy with an athletic subscription, he read an article for me. I cannot quote it because I don’t have the access to the actual language. But I will link to it for anyone who has the article if they can quote it. Basically it says while the unlikely incentives don’t count for cap purposes they do for apron purposes. Which strongly suggests Mike’s unlikely incentive does count against the tax if we make the finals.

https://theathletic.com/4690881/2023/07/14/bucks-cap-situation-explained/

[Colbinii]

Are you sure about this? So if Mike gets his unlikely Wolves don’t get pushed 800,000 k away from the cap?

Correct. Unlikely incentives aren't tied to the Salary Cap or Tax.

I thought you had to count them if you achieve them. Basically, no consequences for being there, but once reached they apply.

Edit to update: I have a buddy with an athletic subscription, he read an article for me. I cannot quote it because I don’t have the access to the actual language. But I will link to it for anyone who has the article if they can quote it. Basically it says while the unlikely incentives don’t count for cap purposes they do for apron purposes. Which strongly suggests Mike’s unlikely incentive does count against the tax if we make the finals.

https://theathletic.com/4690881/2023/07/14/bucks-cap-situation-explained/

It is possible they count towards the Tax Apron but I know they don't count for actually salary purposes.

[winforlose]

Real left field. Any chance 76ers do a swap of PB for Shake Milton?

[KGdaBom]

Real left field. Any chance 76ers do a swap of PB for Shake Milton?

I'm almost certain they would. Shake was very good for them. I don't think they wanted to lose him. I think Bev's time to be on the Wolves has come and gone.

[winforlose]

Real left field. Any chance 76ers do a swap of PB for Shake Milton?

I'm almost certain they would. Shake was very good for them. I don't think they wanted to lose him. I think Bev's time to be on the Wolves has come and gone.

Why? Bev would be perfect as a backup for Mike. He plays solid defense, can space the floor (less well these days but still, and we save over a million dollars which allows another move.

[shrink]

Nice post. I think we can eliminate the players that make over $12 mil because any trade we did to consolidate would require us to add vet min free agents to bring us back to the 14 man minimum roster size.

Troy Brown Jr. $4,000,000

Shake Milton $5,000,000
Wendell Moore Jr. $2,421,720
Jordan McLaughlin $2,320,000
Daishen Nix $2,019,706
Leonard Miller $1,800,000
Josh Minott $1,719,864

For example, we could add Shake, WMJ and McLaughlin to bring back a $10 mil player, but we’d need to add to two more players in free agency (estimate $2 mil, pro-rated) to get back to the 14, so the trade would send out $10 and bring back $14.

I agree we could use a ninth man, particularly one with PG skills. But it’s tough to find a rotation-level player that’s on a contract that’s cheap enough for us to add to this roster.

Ingles and Morris both fit that mold well.

With Ingles, while he is older, he is savvy. One of ANT/NAW/Jaden/SlowMo/TBJ take primacy as the POA defender when Ingles is in the game. Ingles is like an offensive version of SlowMo.

Monte is simply a good back-up PG who is expiring.

Both good players and fits, but I think you’re missing my point. We have 14 on the roster. A team can only be at 13 for a few days, then they must go up to 14 by signing a free agent. Ingles makes $11, Monte Morris makes $9.8

If the trade was Milton ($5) + Brown Jr ($4) for Morris ($9.8), we don’t just add $0.8. We add $2.8, including the extra vet min guy to fill the open roster spot.

If we’re going to trade Milton + Brown in a consolidation deal, we want to look at players making $7 mil for it to be salary neutral.

[KGdaBom]

Real left field. Any chance 76ers do a swap of PB for Shake Milton?

I'm almost certain they would. Shake was very good for them. I don't think they wanted to lose him. I think Bev's time to be on the Wolves has come and gone.

Why? Bev would be perfect as a backup for Mike. He plays solid defense, can space the floor (less well these days but still, and we save over a million dollars which allows another move.

I just think that time has come and gone. Wrong vibe.

[winforlose]

I'm almost certain they would. Shake was very good for them. I don't think they wanted to lose him. I think Bev's time to be on the Wolves has come and gone.

Why? Bev would be perfect as a backup for Mike. He plays solid defense, can space the floor (less well these days but still, and we save over a million dollars which allows another move.

I just think that time has come and gone. Wrong vibe.

Not sure I get it. He is a defensive minded guard with floor spacing ability. I don’t think he made any enemies when he left. Ant would love to have him, Rudy would enjoy him. He and KAT seemed quite close. I just don’t get why it would be bad. Can you please elaborate?

[KGdaBom]

Why? Bev would be perfect as a backup for Mike. He plays solid defense, can space the floor (less well these days but still, and we save over a million dollars which allows another move.

I just think that time has come and gone. Wrong vibe.

Not sure I get it. He is a defensive minded guard with floor spacing ability. I don’t think he made any enemies when he left. Ant would love to have him, Rudy would enjoy him. He and KAT seemed quite close. I just don’t get why it would be bad. Can you please elaborate?

Just a vibe. A vibe is a vibe.
Your reasons for wanting him are fine.

[Colbinii]

Nice post. I think we can eliminate the players that make over $12 mil because any trade we did to consolidate would require us to add vet min free agents to bring us back to the 14 man minimum roster size.

Troy Brown Jr. $4,000,000

Shake Milton $5,000,000
Wendell Moore Jr. $2,421,720
Jordan McLaughlin $2,320,000
Daishen Nix $2,019,706
Leonard Miller $1,800,000
Josh Minott $1,719,864

For example, we could add Shake, WMJ and McLaughlin to bring back a $10 mil player, but we’d need to add to two more players in free agency (estimate $2 mil, pro-rated) to get back to the 14, so the trade would send out $10 and bring back $14.

I agree we could use a ninth man, particularly one with PG skills. But it’s tough to find a rotation-level player that’s on a contract that’s cheap enough for us to add to this roster.

Ingles and Morris both fit that mold well.

With Ingles, while he is older, he is savvy. One of ANT/NAW/Jaden/SlowMo/TBJ take primacy as the POA defender when Ingles is in the game. Ingles is like an offensive version of SlowMo.

Monte is simply a good back-up PG who is expiring.

Both good players and fits, but I think you’re missing my point. We have 14 on the roster. A team can only be at 13 for a few days, then they must go up to 14 by signing a free agent. Ingles makes $11, Monte Morris makes $9.8

If the trade was Milton ($5) + Brown Jr ($4) for Morris ($9.8), we don’t just add $0.8. We add $2.8, including the extra vet min guy to fill the open roster spot.

If we’re going to trade Milton + Brown in a consolidation deal, we want to look at players making $7 mil for it to be salary neutral.

Milton + Moore + McLaughlin is enough, which is what I was saying.

[shrink]

Ingles and Morris both fit that mold well.

With Ingles, while he is older, he is savvy. One of ANT/NAW/Jaden/SlowMo/TBJ take primacy as the POA defender when Ingles is in the game. Ingles is like an offensive version of SlowMo.

Monte is simply a good back-up PG who is expiring.

Both good players and fits, but I think you’re missing my point. We have 14 on the roster. A team can only be at 13 for a few days, then they must go up to 14 by signing a free agent. Ingles makes $11, Monte Morris makes $9.8

If the trade was Milton ($5) + Brown Jr ($4) for Morris ($9.8), we don’t just add $0.8. We add $2.8, including the extra vet min guy to fill the open roster spot.

If we’re going to trade Milton + Brown in a consolidation deal, we want to look at players making $7 mil for it to be salary neutral.

Milton + Moore + McLaughlin is enough, which is what I was saying.

No. Milton + Moore + McLaughlin for Morris + Vet FA + Vet FA takes back too much money.

[MN7725]

looking at list of sub $5mil players, actually think D Rose would be the player that would help the Wolves the most

[shangrila]

This is where I think the divide is.

I don't believe that there is any guarantee we get another chance at a championship, certainly not over the life of Gobert's contract (which is where all this luxury talk comes from). If Conley leaves or declines, we're ****. If Anderson leaves, we're ****. If Miller and/or Minott don't develop, there goes our cheap depth. What if Ant has an injury that turns him into Derrick Rose?

Nah, we would have the full MLE to work with if both Conley and SlowMo leave.

Oh, the full MLE? Lovely, I'm sure we'll be able to replace their contributions with just that.

For reference, I didn't nor am I saying that they MUST go over the tax this season. I just think the idea that they cannot under any circumstances do so is idiotic. If they're presented with a deal that improves them this season that takes them over, they should do it. Even better if it can carry over to the future (i.e. Tyus is only 27 so could be a long term piece). Make the moves to avoid the tax later.

Buddy, the Timberwolves can get Tyus and stay under the tax.

Buddy, the Timberwolves can get Lebron and stay under the tax. What's your point?

[winforlose]

This is where I think the divide is.

I don't believe that there is any guarantee we get another chance at a championship, certainly not over the life of Gobert's contract (which is where all this luxury talk comes from). If Conley leaves or declines, we're ****. If Anderson leaves, we're ****. If Miller and/or Minott don't develop, there goes our cheap depth. What if Ant has an injury that turns him into Derrick Rose?

Nah, we would have the full MLE to work with if both Conley and SlowMo leave.

Oh, the full MLE? Lovely, I'm sure we'll be able to replace their contributions with just that.

For reference, I didn't nor am I saying that they MUST go over the tax this season. I just think the idea that they cannot under any circumstances do so is idiotic. If they're presented with a deal that improves them this season that takes them over, they should do it. Even better if it can carry over to the future (i.e. Tyus is only 27 so could be a long term piece). Make the moves to avoid the tax later.

Buddy, the Timberwolves can get Tyus and stay under the tax.

Buddy, the Timberwolves can get Lebron and stay under the tax. What's your point?

Put simply, Arod and Lore will make the decision. I cannot see them being capable of affording the repeater tax, which means we get two years in the luxury tax. If you think this should be one of them, that is your opinion. I would however suggest that whatever move puts us into the tax had better be a blockbuster/game changer. Trading for a marginal upgrade or a 3 point sharpshooter who doesn’t play defense is not worth a whole year of having KAT, Rudy, Ant, and Jaden, because that is literally what we are talking about.

[shangrila]

Nah, we would have the full MLE to work with if both Conley and SlowMo leave.

Oh, the full MLE? Lovely, I'm sure we'll be able to replace their contributions with just that.

Buddy, the Timberwolves can get Tyus and stay under the tax.

Buddy, the Timberwolves can get Lebron and stay under the tax. What's your point?

Put simply, Arod and Lore will make the decision. I cannot see them being capable of affording the repeater tax, which means we get two years in the luxury tax. If you think this should be one of them, that is your opinion. I would however suggest that whatever move puts us into the tax had better be a blockbuster/game changer. Trading for a marginal upgrade or a 3 point sharpshooter who doesn’t play defense is not worth a whole year of having KAT, Rudy, Ant, and Jaden, because that is literally what we are talking about.

Well now we need to define "blockbuster" and "marginal upgrade".

I would argue a "game changer" could be as simple as getting a competent backup PG, given how weak we are in that area. I would agree that we shouldn't trade Shake just to get "Shake + 1".

And again, I'm not arguing that we have to go into the lux this year. If you go back to the post Colbinii quoted but apparently didn't read I explicitly stated that it's not a requirement. We can, for example, trade Shake and Moore for Delon Wright while staying under the tax (and that includes the bonus Conley gets for a Finals appearance) which I believe would be a "game changer". I just hate the idea that if someone offered us a great rotational piece that could inch us ahead of our competition for a championship, with the only cost being that we're going into the lux, that we'd flat out deny it on future money reasons.