2025 NBA Draft Thread: Detroit Pick Edition

[shrink]

1. ALL ties in the draft are decided by coin flips (technically, not coins, but whatever)

Prior to the lottery, tied lottery teams have their odds combined and averaged. For example, if two teams tie for the sixth worse record, the “ping pong balls” for #6 and #7 are averaged between the two teams for a chance to win a top 4 pick. If the number of combinations to be split is odd, a coin flip determines who gets that extra ping pong ball. After the lottery has determined the four winners, any ties between positions 5-14 are determined by coin flips too.

2. All the tie-breaker rules for division winners, head-to-head record, etc. only apply to playoff seeding. No coin flips.

[dschroeder01]

Man Clayton Jr is choking big time. Think he might be there at 31.

I'd be really wary of drafting someone based on a small sample size tournament run. If a performance on a big stage is just the trigger to look closer at a guy and then you like what you see, fine, but it shouldn't change things based off the much larger sample size.

[Klomp]

1. ALL ties in the draft are decided by coin flips (technically, not coins, but whatever)

Prior to the lottery, tied lottery teams have their odds combined and averaged. For example, if two teams tie for the sixth worse record, the “ping pong balls” for #6 and #7 are averaged between the two teams for a chance to win a top 4 pick. If the number of combinations to be split is odd, a coin flip determines who gets that extra ping pong ball. After the lottery has determined the four winners, any ties between positions 5-14 are determined by coin flips too.

2. All the tie-breaker rules for division winners, head-to-head record, etc. only apply to playoff seeding. No coin flips.

Some day, people will learn to stop debating me on research-based topics around the NBA.

[Klomp]

I have literally 0% idea. I trust you much more than me on this.

Edit to add: I googled it, the AI said “ For teams outside the NBA Draft Lottery (picks 15-30 and the second round), draft order is determined by reverse order of regular season record, with tiebreakers decided by head-to-head record, point differential, and total points scored.”

Ties for playoff positioning are determined by a number of tiebreakers that take into account head-to-head records, divisional records, conference records, etc. But for draft position, ties are decided by a coin flip.

https://sports.yahoo.com/article/explaining-nba-draft-lottery-odds-170000066.html

Your article is about lottery odds. We are talking non lottery positioning. While a coin flip only resolves 2 teams they do a mini lottery for the non lotto teams.

I dug deeper and found this

https://www.blazersedge.com/2024/4/10/24125981/nba-draft-lottery-tiebreaker-rules-blazers-spurs

This also shows it. https://www.nba.com/news/ties-broken-for-order-of-selection-in-2024-nba-draft-presented-by-state-farm

Read the last sentence. I'll even make it bigger for you if that helps.

But for draft position, ties are decided by a coin flip.

[BlacJacMac]

Pistons are 2 losses ahead of Bucks for 17. 16 and 19 are impossible either way. The pick will be 17 or 18. The Pistons have lost twice to the Bucks so far this season. We are obviously hoping to add a loss to the Bucks tomorrow, but any further winning beyond that point (especially against the Pistons who they play twice to end the season,) and 17 is ours.

I'm 99.9% sure they don't use head-to-head tiebreakers for draft order (can't tell or sure, but seems like you might think they do). If teams are at the same record, it goes to a coin flip.

Yup. Its a coin flip.

--edit--

Didn't realize there was another page of people covering this already... Carry on...

[Klomp]

I think the three prospects I'm currently most drawn to as guys who I believe the front office will be fans of are Egor Demin, Carter Bryant, and Nique Clifford. All for different reasons too.

Demin comes in the mold of a Dillingham....someone who was once considered an elite prospect, but fell down the draft board during the season to a more attainable range.

Bryant is like Josh Minott or Leonard Miller....you see the vision, but you might have to be patient in order to let it come to fruition fully.

Clifford is a prospect similar to Terrence Shannon Jr., Walker Kessler and Jaylen Clark....guys who are a little older but enter the league with more well-defined skill sets.

[Klomp]

The comparison feels a little too easy with both the dominant hand and the jersey number, but my goodness I see a lot of Mike Conley Jr.

Watch on YouTube

[shangrila]

Man Clayton Jr is choking big time. Think he might be there at 31.

I'd be really wary of drafting someone based on a small sample size tournament run. If a performance on a big stage is just the trigger to look closer at a guy and then you like what you see, fine, but it shouldn't change things based off the much larger sample size.

Yeah, I don't quite understand the sudden hype with him.

He was always a legitimate prospect, don't get me wrong, but people are overlooking all of the flaws because of a handful of games.

[shangrila]

I think the three prospects I'm currently most drawn to as guys who I believe the front office will be fans of are Egor Demin, Carter Bryant, and Nique Clifford. All for different reasons too.

Demin comes in the mold of a Dillingham....someone who was once considered an elite prospect, but fell down the draft board during the season to a more attainable range.

Bryant is like Josh Minott or Leonard Miller....you see the vision, but you might have to be patient in order to let it come to fruition fully.

Clifford is a prospect similar to Terrence Shannon Jr., Walker Kessler and Jaylen Clark....guys who are a little older but enter the league with more well-defined skill sets.

While I'm interested in Demin, I'm not sure the team will be. He's missing the baseline level of athleticism the team seems to target.

[minimus]

I think the three prospects I'm currently most drawn to as guys who I believe the front office will be fans of are Egor Demin, Carter Bryant, and Nique Clifford. All for different reasons too.

Demin comes in the mold of a Dillingham....someone who was once considered an elite prospect, but fell down the draft board during the season to a more attainable range.

Bryant is like Josh Minott or Leonard Miller....you see the vision, but you might have to be patient in order to let it come to fruition fully.

Clifford is a prospect similar to Terrence Shannon Jr., Walker Kessler and Jaylen Clark....guys who are a little older but enter the league with more well-defined skill sets.

While I'm interested in Demin, I'm not sure the team will be. He's missing the baseline level of athleticism the team seems to target.

I wonder if Demin can follow Deni Avdija development path:

- add muscles
- learn how to use dribble AND physicality
- become one of the most physical wings in NBA

Otherwise it is difficult for me to see Egor in NBA. He is not tall as Franz Wagner, he is not consistent 3PT shooter. He really needs that secondary skill to be effective:

- pick-n-roll passing + 3PT shooting
- pick-n-roll passing + driving game
- pick-n-roll passing + mid range shooting

etc.

[minimus]

Thomas Haugh or Yaxel Lendeborg with UTA pick?

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Given our situation with bigs I would add Sorber/Wolf/Essengue with DET pick and Broome/Lendeborg/Haugh/Thiero/Condon with UTA pick.

Gobert/Sorber/Miller
Reid/Minott/Haugh
McDaniels/NAW/TJ
Edwards/Clark/NAW
DDV/Dillingham/Conley

[Klomp]

I wonder if Demin can follow Deni Avdija development path:

- add muscles
- learn how to use dribble AND physicality
- become one of the most physical wings in NBA

Otherwise it is difficult for me to see Egor in NBA. He is not tall as Franz Wagner, he is not consistent 3PT shooter. He really needs that secondary skill to be effective:

- pick-n-roll passing + 3PT shooting
- pick-n-roll passing + driving game
- pick-n-roll passing + mid range shooting

etc.

I definitely think he's more of a secondary creator...which many would argue is a big part of what the Timberwolves offense needs.

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

[Klomp]

For those of you who want a guard, there seems to be a number of decent options likely close to our range.

Jase Richardson
Kasparas Jakucionis
Egor Demin
Ben Saraf
Nolan Traore
Walter Clayton

[minimus]

Walter Clayton Jr. is the only answer with the DET pick IMO despite our need for a backup C. Grab Broome, Sarver or Kalkbrenner at 31 and let's get to work.

I have zero doubt Clayton Jr will be one of the 7 best players to come out of this Draft. His clutch gene is unteachable.

Walter Clayton Jr. measured 6′ 2.50” barefoot, 8′ 1.50” standing reach, 188.8 lbs, 6′ 4.25” wingspan, 28.5 standing vert, 37.5 max vert.

The comparison feels a little too easy with both the dominant hand and the jersey number, but my goodness I see a lot of Mike Conley Jr.

Watch on YouTube

IMO both Jase Richardson and Walter Clayton Jr. look more like Donovan Mitchell than Mike Conley.

[shangrila]

I think the three prospects I'm currently most drawn to as guys who I believe the front office will be fans of are Egor Demin, Carter Bryant, and Nique Clifford. All for different reasons too.

Demin comes in the mold of a Dillingham....someone who was once considered an elite prospect, but fell down the draft board during the season to a more attainable range.

Bryant is like Josh Minott or Leonard Miller....you see the vision, but you might have to be patient in order to let it come to fruition fully.

Clifford is a prospect similar to Terrence Shannon Jr., Walker Kessler and Jaylen Clark....guys who are a little older but enter the league with more well-defined skill sets.

While I'm interested in Demin, I'm not sure the team will be. He's missing the baseline level of athleticism the team seems to target.

I wonder if Demin can follow Deni Avdija development path:

- add muscles
- learn how to use dribble AND physicality
- become one of the most physical wings in NBA

Otherwise it is difficult for me to see Egor in NBA. He is not tall as Franz Wagner, he is not consistent 3PT shooter. He really needs that secondary skill to be effective:

- pick-n-roll passing + 3PT shooting
- pick-n-roll passing + driving game
- pick-n-roll passing + mid range shooting

etc.

Deni was always a good defender though, and in general betting on someone significantly changing a core aspect of who they are as a player is usually a bad gamble.

A 3pt shot would make Egor more of a viable prospect as we saw earlier in the season but even then I'm concerned about his handle. Might actually be talking myself out of him at this rate...

[Klomp]

On the low end, I think Demin might be a Vit Krejci type. I think Giddey is a pretty decent comp for an average/likely outcome.

[shangrila]

For those of you who want a guard, there seems to be a number of decent options likely close to our range.

Jase Richardson
Kasparas Jakucionis
Egor Demin
Ben Saraf
Nolan Traore
Walter Clayton

I'd be surprised if either of Jase or Kasparas were available. Saraf and Traore are interesting, both as prospects and stash candidates.

I'm still wary of putting so much stock into a small sample size with Clayton. Anyone that goes from mid to late 2nd to mid 1st after a tournament run raises alarm bells for me.

[Klomp]

I'm still wary of putting so much stock into a small sample size with Clayton. Anyone that goes from mid to late 2nd to mid 1st after a tournament run raises alarm bells for me.

I get it, but I don't think it was a fluke climb like Jonny Flynn. Clayton was a first team All-American this year, it wasn't completely out of nowhere.

[Slim Tubby]

I'm still wary of putting so much stock into a small sample size with Clayton. Anyone that goes from mid to late 2nd to mid 1st after a tournament run raises alarm bells for me.

I get it, but I don't think it was a fluke climb like Jonny Flynn. Clayton was a first team All-American this year, it wasn't completely out of nowhere.

Agreed. It's pretty easy to tell which posters only watched the tournament compared to those of us that watch college hoops all season long. It's a very lazy narrative.

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