Constructing the Timberwolves rotation

[minimus]

Okay, I think I am ready to describe "a close to reality scenario" I'd be happy about.

Based on our usual luck in NBA draft lottery, we get top6 pick. We draft Hayes, Oturu. Resign Martin, Beasley, Juancho. Trade Culver, JJ, SRP for Aaron Gordon. Jae Crowder for MLE 32mil/4yrs.

KAT/Reid/Oturu
Gordon/Juancho/Layman
Crowder/Layman/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Nowell
DLo/Hayes/ML

Why Hayes? He seems to have the highest upside in top6-10 range
Why Oturu? Defensive minded big with potential
Why Gordon? An athletic rim runner, rebounder, versatile defender, solid passer
Why Crowder? A tough, defensive-minded veteran, a big, strong wing who can shoot open 3s.

Okay, Jae Crowder did not impress much last game. New scenario. We draft Hayes, Oturu. Resign ML, Martin, Beasley, Juancho. Trade Culver, JJ, SRP for Aaron Gordon. Glenn Robinson III for MLE 16mil/4yrs, last two years - team option.

KAT/Reid/Oturu
Gordon/Juancho/Layman
Robinson/Layman/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Nowell
DLo/Hayes/ML

Robinson averages this year 12ppg, on 48% FG, 38% from 3PT. Gordon + Robinson gives us athletic combo on wings both can shoot, slash and defend.

[minimus]

There are a few things that makes me sad about our current defense:

* - inability to rebound. lack of commitment to do dirty work, i.e. boxout, seal opponent
* - inability to set good screens
* - we commit many dumb fouls and very few "smart/veteran/hard" fouls. we foul shooters on 3pt attempts, we allow easy points in rim, we don't try to break opponent offensive flow etc.

Rebounding will be less issue with KAT, I also like how DLo and Beasley help our team to get defensive rebounds. As for screen I think it is part of learning path for us this year, plus we could use a veteran big. As for fouls I think it is matter of experience, discipline and basketball IQ.

Based on current situation I would following steps this offseason:
* - acquire defense/experience via FA, trades. defense is usually cheaper than offense. Having some flexibility in 2020 offseason might help, because there are not many team willing to bid, pay. We also have more offense than defense.
* - acquire offense, talent via draft
* - gain some continuity be re-signing players who are familiar with system. stabilise bench, by having not only 6th man, but also decent 7-8th options

My scenario would be:
* - re-sign ML, Martin. Both might be crucial to have solid rotation next year. ML is a good 3rd string PG, who can grow into main backup PG. while Martin offers good versality as scorer and has potential to grow as defender, once he stops to bite on every pump fake.
* - re-sign Beasley, Juancho. Both proved to be shooters that we need to keep our offense going
* - trade JJ, Brooklyn pick for Gordon.
* - sign Moe Harkless for 24mil/4yrs type of deal. Vanterpool will be happy to have another POR player to work on developing our defense. If not try to get Jae Crowder, Glenn Robinson III
* - get BPA, with highest potential, talent. we have KAT/DLo at С, but I would not hesitate to draft Wiseman/Okongwu or Hampton/Hayes/Halibutron if they show enough during next months. We could certainly use another talented ballhanlder either SG/PG. I like Okongwu here. Move Culver to backup PG role.

KAT/Okongwu/Reid
Gordon/Juancho/Okongwu
Harkless/Layman/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Nowell
DLo/Culver/ML

[winforlose]

There are a few things that makes me sad about our current defense:

* - inability to rebound. lack of commitment to do dirty work, i.e. boxout, seal opponent
* - inability to set good screens
* - we commit many dumb fouls and very few "smart/veteran/hard" fouls. we foul shooters on 3pt attempts, we allow easy points in rim, we don't try to break opponent offensive flow etc.

Rebounding will be less issue with KAT, I also like how DLo and Beasley help our team to get defensive rebounds. As for screen I think it is part of learning path for us this year, plus we could use a veteran big. As for fouls I think it is matter of experience, discipline and basketball IQ.

Based on current situation I would following steps this offseason:
* - acquire defense/experience via FA, trades. defense is usually cheaper than offense. Having some flexibility in 2020 offseason might help, because there are not many team willing to bid, pay. We also have more offense than defense.
* - acquire offense, talent via draft
* - gain some continuity be re-signing players who are familiar with system. stabilise bench, by having not only 6th man, but also decent 7-8th options

My scenario would be:
* - re-sign ML, Martin. Both might be crucial to have solid rotation next year. ML is a good 3rd string PG, who can grow into main backup PG. while Martin offers good versality as scorer and has potential to grow as defender, once he stops to bite on every pump fake.
* - re-sign Beasley, Juancho. Both proved to be shooters that we need to keep our offense going
* - trade JJ, Brooklyn pick for Gordon.
* - sign Moe Harkless for 24mil/4yrs type of deal. Vanterpool will be have another POR player to work on developing our defense. If not try to get Jae Crowder, Glenn Robinson III
* - get BPA, with highest potential, talent. we have KAT/DLo at С, but I would not hesitate to draft Wiseman/Okongwu or Hampton/Hayes/Halibutron if they show enough during next months. We could certainly use another talented ballhanlder either SG/PG. I like Okongwu here. Move Culver to backup PG role.

KAT/Okongwu/Reid
Gordon/Juancho/Okongwu
Harkless/Layman/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Nowell
DLo/Culver/ML

1. Culver is incapable of playing PG. Putting him their will destroy the second unit
2. Okogie and Layman both are weak in scoring. Juancho will do better guarding/being guarded by backups, but we still will get outscored.
3. If you don’t add a 3rd star then you simply cannot ever run a full second unit. You always have KAT or Dlo on the floor at all times.
4. This lineup is one Dlo injury away from being bottom of the league. You need a vet PG or to draft a PG to develop behind Dlo. KAT getting injured likely nets the same result.

[Killboard]

Wolves are 5th in ORTG since the trades and with only 2 games of KAT.

Their are also 30th in DRTG in the same span.

I think they need to bring defenders who happens to be reasonable spot up shooters instead of invest in scoring wings/forwards.

That's why I'm concerned in matching anything for Beasley and Juancho and the reason why I want Okongwu, Okoro, Vassell or Halliburton.

[Klomp]

Wolves are 5th in ORTG since the trades and with only 2 games of KAT.

Their are also 30th in DRTG in the same span.

I think they need to bring defenders who happens to be reasonable spot up shooters instead of invest in scoring wings/forwards.

That's why I'm concerned in matching anything for Beasley and Juancho and the reason why I want Okongwu, Okoro, Vassell or Halliburton.

Take away Beasley and Juancho and you take away big parts of the reason the Wolves are fifth in offensive rating.

[minimus]

Read on Twitter

They will get better. Young players get experience, they will build chemistry, better defensive talents will be added here after FAs/draft.

I think first goal is to be top10 offense, top20 defense. That is a very doable, even based on internal improvements and offseason/preseason work, plus some luck.

top5 offense, top15 defense will bring us playoffs.

[Killboard]

Wolves are 5th in ORTG since the trades and with only 2 games of KAT.

Their are also 30th in DRTG in the same span.

I think they need to bring defenders who happens to be reasonable spot up shooters instead of invest in scoring wings/forwards.

That's why I'm concerned in matching anything for Beasley and Juancho and the reason why I want Okongwu, Okoro, Vassell or Halliburton.

Take away Beasley and Juancho and you take away big parts of the reason the Wolves are fifth in offensive rating.

Then add KAT and part of the dropoff will be mitigated. I would like to keep them, the question is at what price. IE Seth Curry got 8M per season.

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

Ryan has mentioned this same thing a couple of times. We expect these players to be robotic and do everything correctly on the spot, but the reality is different from the perception of these situations.

[Klomp]

Then add KAT and part of the dropoff will be mitigated. I would like to keep them, the question is at what price. IE Seth Curry got 8M per season.

Russell and KAT need guys to play off of them on offense. They cannot shoulder the load alone. I'm not comfortable only having two go-to scoring threats. And you're going to end up paying just as much probably if not more for the same quality of player.

[minimus]

Then add KAT and part of the dropoff will be mitigated. I would like to keep them, the question is at what price. IE Seth Curry got 8M per season.

Russell and KAT need guys to play off of them on offense. They cannot shoulder the load alone. I'm not comfortable only having two go-to scoring threats. And you're going to end up paying just as much probably if not more for the same quality of player.

One thing I would expect from opponents going forward is that they will adjust to DLo/Beasley backcourt since both are not dynamic slasher. Thats why I'd like to add guys like Hayes, Hampton, Maledon as potential offense creators.

KAT as always is X-factor here since he can generate offense with his passing and shooting, but it requires high level execution, which usually is an attribute of veteran teams.

P.S. I have just realised that getting top pick and successful draft 2020 might turn the course of this franchise for the next 10 years. High stakes.
P.P.S. KG could help MIN so much, even during practice...

[Bruteque]

Read on Twitter

They will get better. Young players get experience, they will build chemistry, better defensive talents will be added here after FAs/draft.

I think first goal is to be top10 offense, top20 defense. That is a very doable, even based on internal improvements and offseason/preseason work, plus some luck.

top5 offense, top15 defense will bring us playoffs.

It's not quite so grim. Top 10 offense top 20 defense would probably bring you playoffs already. I mean, this is not the NFL where you win your way into the playoffs; this is the NBA where you lose your way out of it.



Top 5 offense top 15 defense and you are probably going somewhere in the playoffs. Currently, only four teams (out of five possible obviously) in the NBA qualify by those criteria, Rockets, Bucks, and the two teams from LA.

[Killboard]

Then add KAT and part of the dropoff will be mitigated. I would like to keep them, the question is at what price. IE Seth Curry got 8M per season.

Russell and KAT need guys to play off of them on offense. They cannot shoulder the load alone. I'm not comfortable only having two go-to scoring threats. And you're going to end up paying just as much probably if not more for the same quality of player.

I get your point and is specially important with a rock bottom defense.

But I don't think Beasley is a go to scorer right now. Most of his damage is from jumpers and he can't really create or drive to the rim. Pretty much the same with Juancho. If they can be above average defenders I would lock them with less concerns but it seems they can't stop anybody so I don't want to pay big money for glorified spot up shooters. And I say it seems because is not fair to judge them only by this 9 games. But Denver traded them for a reason and Malone is a defense oriented coach.

If we can get one or two top tier defenders like Okogie but with a forward size on cheap deals then is easier to accommodate a premium salary for a spot up shooter. Easier said than done.

[Klomp]

Then add KAT and part of the dropoff will be mitigated. I would like to keep them, the question is at what price. IE Seth Curry got 8M per season.

Russell and KAT need guys to play off of them on offense. They cannot shoulder the load alone. I'm not comfortable only having two go-to scoring threats. And you're going to end up paying just as much probably if not more for the same quality of player.

I get your point and is specially important with a rock bottom defense.

But I don't think Beasley is a go to scorer right now. Most of his damage is from jumpers and he can't really create or drive to the rim. Pretty much the same with Juancho. If they can be above average defenders I would lock them with less concerns but it seems they can't stop anybody so I don't want to pay big money for glorified spot up shooters. And I say it seems because is not fair to judge them only by this 9 games. But Denver traded them for a reason and Malone is a defense oriented coach.

If we can get one or two top tier defenders like Okogie but with a forward size on cheap deals then is easier to accommodate a premium salary for a spot up shooter. Easier said than done.

So just hypothetically, you would rather have Gary Harris (reminder: shooting 40% and 31% from 3-point range) over Beasley if they cost the same amount of money?

[Colbinii]

Russell and KAT need guys to play off of them on offense. They cannot shoulder the load alone. I'm not comfortable only having two go-to scoring threats. And you're going to end up paying just as much probably if not more for the same quality of player.

I get your point and is specially important with a rock bottom defense.

But I don't think Beasley is a go to scorer right now. Most of his damage is from jumpers and he can't really create or drive to the rim. Pretty much the same with Juancho. If they can be above average defenders I would lock them with less concerns but it seems they can't stop anybody so I don't want to pay big money for glorified spot up shooters. And I say it seems because is not fair to judge them only by this 9 games. But Denver traded them for a reason and Malone is a defense oriented coach.

If we can get one or two top tier defenders like Okogie but with a forward size on cheap deals then is easier to accommodate a premium salary for a spot up shooter. Easier said than done.

So just hypothetically, you would rather have Gary Harris (reminder: shooting 40% and 31% from 3-point range) over Beasley if they cost the same amount of money?

I think you would be foolish at this point to prefer Harris and his downward trajectory over Beasley.

[Killboard]

Russell and KAT need guys to play off of them on offense. They cannot shoulder the load alone. I'm not comfortable only having two go-to scoring threats. And you're going to end up paying just as much probably if not more for the same quality of player.

I get your point and is specially important with a rock bottom defense.

But I don't think Beasley is a go to scorer right now. Most of his damage is from jumpers and he can't really create or drive to the rim. Pretty much the same with Juancho. If they can be above average defenders I would lock them with less concerns but it seems they can't stop anybody so I don't want to pay big money for glorified spot up shooters. And I say it seems because is not fair to judge them only by this 9 games. But Denver traded them for a reason and Malone is a defense oriented coach.

If we can get one or two top tier defenders like Okogie but with a forward size on cheap deals then is easier to accommodate a premium salary for a spot up shooter. Easier said than done.

So just hypothetically, you would rather have Gary Harris (reminder: shooting 40% and 31% from 3-point range) over Beasley if they cost the same amount of money?

I would prefer Seth Curry for 8 than Beasley for 15.

Harris can't defend forwards so is not exactly where I would use that money. We already have Okogie to stop guard sized players and Culver is not slouch on defense neither. Neither of them can shoot but they are cheap and likely to improve to some degree. Trading them right now could be sell them low. Problem is that by playing one of them along Beasley and Dlo gives you size problems.

I get that we aren't going under the cap this season even if we don't resign Beasley. But the season next, where the class is loaded, JJ is expiring and the wolves could have a max salary slot fairly easy.

Which this means IMO is that if Beasley does not get a high offer and does not want to sign for what the wolves could offer I'm okay with him taking the QO and playing for the year. It's likely Rosas has this figured out too.

[Klomp]

Part of the difference between Curry and Beasley is age. You're paying for youth and hopeful continued development. And let's be honest, Curry wouldn't have signed here for just 8 per.

[minimus]

Watching KAT highlights I wonder not only how big will be his rebounding and elite offense for this team, but also how much he can benefit from the new roster. I mean he started this season playing with Teague, Wiggins, Graham, Bell, RoCo. Now he will play with DLo, Beasley, Juancho. He started this season elevating his game, adding stepback 3s, slashing more, passing more. Imagine what he can do within the new offense, this spacing, this passing from DLo, and pace. Too big for small ball, too fast and skilled for a traditional lineup. They might be able to create a good 3pt or dunk/layup opportunity in every attack.

[Killboard]

Part of the difference between Curry and Beasley is age. You're paying for youth and hopeful continued development. And let's be honest, Curry wouldn't have signed here for just 8 per.

Even he if would, he is already signed. The main point is how much is worth a player who can shoot the lights out but can't create or defend. Maybe is more than 8M (Curry also signed for 4 seasons which likely reduced his per year expectations).

And I get age is important, but if that means paying upfront for an improvement that is unlikely then is not worth the risk. Beasley realisting ceiling is to be a 40% 3pt shooter and a 20 ppg player with enough minutes that lives and die for the jumpshot. Which is not realistic is to hope he will be a plus defensively or will be driving to the rim in the half court.

Im not against keeping him as I already stated, just that I don't think he is the 3rd star player who can help to make a playoff run and his salary can't be negative if want that player at some point.

[winforlose]

Great article on Okogie. If he could just develop a three point shot he would be legit threat for the offense and defense.

https://www.nba.com/timberwolves/news/timberwolves-constant-change-josh-okogie-stability

[Calinks]

Just thinking things over, besides obvious top 10 NBA superstars, who do you thin we could plug into the 3 and 4 spots next season that would pretty much lock us into being a good playoff team? (3-6 seed). I'm having trouble of thinking of two players that would benefit us that much.