The Positivity Thread

[Calinks]

I don['t think we are winning a series but that would be amazing. A huge monkey would be off KAT's back as everyone seems to just give Butler all the credit for their last playoff run and KAT gets all the blame for the playoff misses. Granted some will just say Ant carried him but legitimate NBA fans will give KAT some credit.

[winforlose]

I’ll be happy to make a playoff series. I don’t want set myself up for disappointment.

Barring major injury or surprise and this being the positivity thread let’s say Wolves end in 6th and skip the play in. 1 and 2 in no particular order are Suns and GSW. 5 is probably Dallas. So we either play the Griz or Jazz. Last year we swept the Jazz. With Ant and Dlo hitting 3s and hopefully with some deadline reinforcements, I think we could beat Utah in 6 or 7. As for the Griz, we blew a huge lead against them in the fourth of game 1, and we crushed them by a huge margin in game 2. We lost game 3 in epic display of lethargy and apathy, but in the playoffs everything is dialed to 11 and we will put it all on the court. Overall, depending on health and what we do at the deadline, it isn’t crazy to think we could survive the first round if we can make it to 6th.

[minimus]

I have not seen Foye very often.

[Klomp]

I’ll be happy to make a playoff series. I don’t want set myself up for disappointment.

Barring major injury or surprise and this being the positivity thread let’s say Wolves end in 6th and skip the play in. 1 and 2 in no particular order are Suns and GSW. 5 is probably Dallas. So we either play the Griz or Jazz. Last year we swept the Jazz. With Ant and Dlo hitting 3s and hopefully with some deadline reinforcements, I think we could beat Utah in 6 or 7. As for the Griz, we blew a huge lead against them in the fourth of game 1, and we crushed them by a huge margin in game 2. We lost game 3 in epic display of lethargy and apathy, but in the playoffs everything is dialed to 11 and we will put it all on the court. Overall, depending on health and what we do at the deadline, it isn’t crazy to think we could survive the first round if we can make it to 6th.

I would love to see a Wolves-Grizzlies first round series. Two small market teams who don't get enough buzz.

[life_saver]

I don['t think we are winning a series but that would be amazing. A huge monkey would be off KAT's back as everyone seems to just give Butler all the credit for their last playoff run and KAT gets all the blame for the playoff misses. Granted some will just say Ant carried him but legitimate NBA fans will give KAT some credit.

people who give Jimmy all the credit for Wolves reaching playoffs probably didn't watch much Timberwolves matches that season...Jimmy and KAT pretty much carried the team that season. Even in advanced stats, both Jimmy and KAT were the only Wolves players in top25 that season. And when Jimmy went down with injury, KAT was probably the major reason why the team had a record atleat close to 0.500 in the matches Jimmy missed. It was a badly constructed roster (with very little 3 pt shooting and a stubborn coach) that was carried by both Jimmy and KAT

[winforlose]

I don['t think we are winning a series but that would be amazing. A huge monkey would be off KAT's back as everyone seems to just give Butler all the credit for their last playoff run and KAT gets all the blame for the playoff misses. Granted some will just say Ant carried him but legitimate NBA fans will give KAT some credit.

people who give Jimmy all the credit for Wolves reaching playoffs probably didn't watch much Timberwolves matches that season...Jimmy and KAT pretty much carried the team that season. Even in advanced stats, both Jimmy and KAT were the only Wolves players in top25 that season. And when Jimmy went down with injury, KAT was probably the major reason why the team had a record atleat close to 0.500 in the matches Jimmy missed. It was a badly constructed roster (with very little 3 pt shooting and a stubborn coach) that was carried by both Jimmy and KAT

Your half right. Wiggins regressed when he was asked to be the third option. He never fully recovered, (though some people say he is better this year in GSW.) which for our purposes meant we were vulnerable with JB. Teague had a great year that first year and was an improvement over Rubio, but Taj pushing G to the bench hurt Gs performance as well. Add to this a team that hated the coach and the starters being worn down from playing too many minutes and you have a recipe for disaster. We were third seed before JB went out so our roster couldn’t have been that bad.

Edit to add: for context look at GSW this season without Curry.

[shrink]

I wanted to express some positivity about … D’Angelo Russell!

For most of his career, my two biggest frustrations with DLo were his inability to get to the hoop, and his defensive apathy. A major component for both flaws has been a lack of NBA athleticism, which I thought he would never overcome.

But guess what? This year, particularly lately, he has gotten better at both. He has always been a smart player, but I think lately he has made big advances in brains over brawn. He will always be defensively limited, but he is engaged and calls out opposing plays, helping his young team defend. And since the All Star break, we have seen him go to the rim, instead of always going with the pull up jumper. This has helped confuse defenses, which helps both DLo and especially Vanderbilt.

We often talk about “good Beasley” and “bad Beasley.” I think right now, we are getting “best DLo.”

[TheZachAttack]

I want to express some positivity around Jaylen Nowell. I think Nowell is really access to a consistent 25-30mpg role away from exploding as a player. His underlying profile suggests that he should be an elite 6th man/#3 guard type of option at a minimum. He is also a really versatile scorer that can play on-ball with offense run through him or off-ball off of another primary creator. Given his skillset, there is really nothing to me that would indicate a cause for alarm about his ability to scale his per minute numbers to a 25-30mpg role.

He may even regress in terms of his efficiency, but I think the eye-test matches the stats in this case. Nowell's ability as a 3-level scorer and is touch & feel as a shotmaker are for real. He's also a better secondary playmaker or a playmaker with the ball in his hands than expected. I'm really not sure how a guy with his ability as a 3-level scorer and as a floor spacer can become anything less than a Jordan Poole type of player.

I think Finch knows this as well. There are a lot of mouths to feed & a lot of good players & Jaylen can continue to become more consistent game to game especially on the defensive side. I really cannot see how he is anything less than that level at his peak. There aren't players who rank as highly as he does in actions with the ball in his hands and from as many areas on the floor as Nowell.

Again, I'm not sure what this means for this season but it's going to happen and it's going to really change the way we think about the current Wolves core, ultimate ceiling, and next steps as team when it does because we will have effectively added a 22-23 year old player who is a quasi-6th-man of the year candidate to our rotation and future. I would be willing to bet a lot of money on it happening. You just don't see players with his profile fail to become above average rotation players.

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Jaylen Nowell
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Nowell is sneakily developing into a player that is likely a potential breakout candidate next season as MIP & a potential 6th man of the year if the Wolves can find enough minutes for him. Nowell's offensive profile aligns with the offensive profile of other elite 6th men like Jordan Poole and other perimeter players who are elite offensively ranging from #1 scorers to that elite 6th man level. Nowell has enough limitations athletically & on the defensive side of the ball that when matched with his ideal role given his skillset and playstyle he is likely closer to the Poole/Clarkson type of level as a player than a step above that (McCollum/Middleton/Booker/Lavine/etc) which is really the range of outcomes that I see with someone with Nowell's skillset and production profile.

1. Nowell is one of the better shot-creators with the ball-in his hands in the league. Over this full-season, he is in the 90-95th percentile as an isolation scorer & PnR ballhandler (including the best PPP in the league in the latter). He is also above average in terms of his ability to generate FT/And 1's on those attempts and one of the top 5 best perimeter players in limiting TOs on actions with him as the ball-handler. During his stretch in the rotation, he's been in the 95-98th percentile range.

2. Nowell is a true 3-level scorer. He takes almost 40% of his shots from 3-12 feet and shoots 53-54% throughout that distance. These percentages put Nowell in the top 5-10 range among perimeter players in terms of efficiency at a volume that compares similarly to Trae Young and Kyrie per 36. At the rim, Nowell isn't elite but he's above average at 65% converting at a similar rate to players like Ant, McCollum, and Donovan Mitchell. He's not just a scorer inside the perimeter... Nowell is averaging 42% from the corners and just under 40% from above the break. This includes shooting 57% on 3pt shots where he takes 2-6 seconds (off the dribble).

3. Nowell is not just a volume scorer who needs the ball in his hands. Nowell can play off the ball and takes another ~40% of his shots either off of screens or spotting up which is similar to players like Hield, Fournier, Bogdonaviches, and Poole who are primarly thought of as shooters offensively and not as ball-dominant players. Nowell is in the 80-85th percentile range on both of these shot types and even higher than that since he's gotten regular rotation minutes.

4. Nowell can be effective off the ball but he's not an off ball player. Less than 10% of Nowell's touches come from moving without the ball (screens, handoffs, and cutting) and in many cases he isn't particularly good at converting them (18th percentile on handoffs). Off the ball, Nowell is primarily a stationary spacer standing on the perimeter spacing off of penetrators collapsing defenses. Outside of that type of action, without the ball Nowell will run in transition where he is at about the 60th percentile on about 18% of his actions. I do want to note that given his halfcourt shot creation numbers I think Nowell can convert more efficiently in transition than he has.

5. Nowell is not just a scorer with tunnel vision & can actually operate for stretches as a true "1" or with another combo guard as co-playmakers and initiators in an offense although he wont' be mistaken for a true PG. His 21% AST%, 3.7 ast/TO rate, and 20% usage rate suggests that he's not just a scoring guard but a true combo guard. His playmaking profile and usage compares similarly to players like Poole, Maxey, Conley, Middleton, Halliburton, Bogdonavic, etc in different forms.
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Production (last 40 games)
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18mpg
10ppg
2.5rbds
2.5asts

on

56.5% 2pt FG (4.6att)
39.5% 3pt FG (2.8att)
78% FT (1.8 att)
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Per 36:
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20ppg
5 rbds
5 asts

on

56.5% 2pt FG (9.2att)
39.5% 3pt FG (5.6att)
78% FT (3.5att)
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Summary
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Nowell's underlying production profile matches the eye test when you watch him play. His skillset as a scorer & shot creator both with and without the ball are real and backed by production at every level that he's been at. Nowell has above-average to elite body control, touch, and feel as a scorer. He can score from all 3 levels and get efficient shots at will because his biggest strength as a scorer is his ability to score in areas where defenses want to give up shots. He's extremely crafty and advanced with his dribble & feel as a scorer. He plays the game at his pace to get to his spots and make his shots. There is a reason that Nowell is an above average to elite scorer in every zone in the half court with and without the ball in his hands.

Nowell's ability as a shot-creator & playmaker suggest that he should be put in positions to have offense run through him when he's on the court to play off his ability to beat his man and collapse defenses. However, his versatility and ability to also play with other primary ball-handlers and be effective in key ways as a secondary player in a smaller offensive role also suggest that he can play in lineups with starters say in closing minutes potentially or in other targeted lineups. This versatility is one of the biggest indicators that Nowell is more than just a bench scorer that is a borderline player in a tightened playoff rotation.

Nowell has taken steps forward as an NBA player this season. It's clear that he can be an effective bench rotation player and that his scoring ability is for real against opposing teams benches. Players with similar underlying skillsets to Nowell have become players that depending on the roster construction are secondary scorers on a starting unit (think Rozier in Charlotte) or 3rd best perimeter scorers that play as 6th men and also in lineups with starters (think Poole or Clarkson). Nowell's profile suggests that he should be able to be at a similar level to that and make a similar jump to the jump that say Poole made this year next season if the Wolves can find more minutes for him. In terms of visualization of his playstyle outside of the examples given, he plays really similarly to perimeter players like McCollum as well as Poole.

This season, the Wolves have a really deep perimeter rotation that includes D Lo, Beverly, Ant, and Beasley as well as Nowell. Nowell offers the Wolves a unique skillset from their other options outside of D Lo in terms of ability to create his own shot and that will continue to get him minutes. However, it likely won't increase from the ~20mpg role as it is now where he is partnering with Beasley to fill the role of bench scorer. Next season, the Wolves ability to make an additional step forward on top of the step forward they've taken this year to compete for home-court-advantage versus compete for avoiding the bubble will be in large part determined by Nowell's ability to continue to scale his production in a larger role and in tougher minutes and the Wolves ability to carve out that role for Nowell.

[TheZachAttack]

I wanted to express some positivity about … D’Angelo Russell!

For most of his career, my two biggest frustrations with DLo were his inability to get to the hoop, and his defensive apathy. A major component for both flaws has been a lack of NBA athleticism, which I thought he would never overcome.

But guess what? This year, particularly lately, he has gotten better at both. He has always been a smart player, but I think lately he has made big advances in brains over brawn. He will always be defensively limited, but he is engaged and calls out opposing plays, helping his young team defend. And since the All Star break, we have seen him go to the rim, instead of always going with the pull up jumper. This has helped confuse defenses, which helps both DLo and especially Vanderbilt.

We often talk about “good Beasley” and “bad Beasley.” I think right now, we are getting “best DLo.”

I want to add that as an extension of the "brains" or leadership role that he's taken on as a point of emphasis, he's quietly made changes to his game from prior to coming to Minnesota to become the "third" option when playing with Ant/Towns. Here is the evidence
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1) D Lo is averaging 7.6 assists in ~32 minutes (8.6 assists per 36) since December 12th (when the Wolves started to play consistently well as they have been for ~45 games). This ranks 10th & tied for 8th respectively in the entire NBA. The only players ahead of him are Paul, Murray Harden, Trae, Halliburton, Jokic, Garland and he's tied with Doncic. This is a career high outside of his all-star year in Brooklyn (which was similar)

2) His usage rate is down during this stretch below 24% (23.8%) which looks similar to players like Jrue Holiday, Fred Van Fleet, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Cameron Payne then it does the "ball hog" that D Lo has been perceived to be. This is well below the 29-32% usage rates that he has averaged for the majority of his career over the last 5-6 years. Ant & Towns are at ~26% & 27.5% respectively.

3) Prior to coming to the Wolves & during his first year with the Wolves D Lo was around 30% of his FGs assisted & ~50-53% of his 3pt FGs. He is now at 64% of his 3's and 46% of his total shots assisted.

4) After a slow start his shooting has rebounded to his career norms. He's averaging 37% 3pt shooting on 8 attempts per game over his last 34 games since the Wolves started playing better basketball in mid-December. In addition, he's been more efficient than in the past from 2 ~55% on 6.4 attempts per 32mpg.
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In some ways these are small or subtle changes to his game that being said when you bubble all of those little changes up and pair it with the defensive narrative it starts to paint a picture. I think it's fair to acknowledge D Lo's limitations as a player and even wish he was better. In some ways, D Lo has embraced figuring out how to fit in with other ball-dominant players in a seamless way that hasn't really even been noticed by fans.

D Lo is clearly a less ball-dominant player who is a better playmaker and spends much more of his time on offense providing spacing for Towns/Edwards (and adding value as a spacer) than other stops in his career. In addition, he has managed to change his profile to touch the ball less while at the same time growing his impact through using his IQ to organize the team on both sides of the ball and initiate actions and touches across all of the different mouths to feed. I can't really complain about D Lo's playstyle given the way his profile has changed other than to say I hope he continues to champion that role because I think it's a big value add for the rest of the team and overall touch breakdown.

[TaylorTag]

We've been pretty fortunate with health this season (though we definitely went through a COVID stretch that was as bad as any other team in the league, which we can't ignore), and so losing McDaniels, while it hurts, he is probably the one player in our top 8 (starting 5 plus Beasely, McDaniels, Reid) that we can adequately replace, as Prince can fill a lot of those minutes and playing Vando more won't hurt us as well.

It sucks because I was really enjoying McDaniels and Beasely on the floor with KAT and D'Lo and Ant... When they've seen time, it looks like at times they may be our best lineup.

But, again, this isn't the worse loss in the world because (a) we have about a month for him to recover and (b) we have the players to step up. If we were to lose someone even like Naz, I feel like that would be a bigger hit to our team, because provides depth that no one really can fill outside Knight... McDaniels, we have people who can step up. Just means more Prince, more Vando and more Beasely even.

It would be absolutely devastating if this season were to tank at the end because of injury. Right now, I am nowhere near worrying about that yet, although acknowledging that these injuries are random occurrences and so nothing is guaranteed, but we seem to have a healthy roster that for the most part has proven to be durable. That's something.

As a Minnesota Gophers basketball fan, I remember during Pitino's first NCAA appearance, the Gophers had just lost SG Akeem Springs the game before the first round.. Springs wasn't a starter, but anyone familiar with that team knows they were essentially relying on a 7-man rotation down the stretch, and when Springs got hurt the team literally had no depth at three positions at the snap of a finger.

I love McDaniels, but our success this season does not depend on his health like it did Akeem Springs that year Tournament.

[Klomp]

Something to be excited about:

Our minority partners Lore and Rodriguez seem emotionally invested in this group and are seeing the successes on the court and are building relationships off the court too with the players and in the community. If people are still scared about the future, they shouldn't be!

Read on Twitter

[Calinks]

One of the best things about this season for me is I think Finch is now secure. I was very nervous when Glen brought in new ownership because I thought we were in the perfect position with Rosas and Finch. New owners tend to really want to leave their mark and they like to clean house. I was terrified that Rosas and Finch would get booted for a new crew.

Rosas got dropped and I immediately thought could be happening but we all know the reasons for that now. I think Finch has really cemented himself as our coach as the new ownership sees the results. Now I just hope they don't get trigger happy if we have a bad playoff or something and decide to go another route.

[minimus]

I am really impressed by McLaughlin passing game and pesky defense. He might be a liability in playoffs, but he is a great 9-10th player in rotation on great contract.

Also this play always makes me crazy

Read on Twitter

[minimus]

I am really impressed by McLaughlin passing game and pesky defense. He might be a liability in playoffs, but he is a great 9-10th player in rotation on great contract.

Also this play always makes me crazy

Read on Twitter

Indeed

Read on Twitter

[minimus]

I have not seen Foye very often.

Bump

[King Malta]

I have not seen Foye very often.

Bump

There's a few posters who only seem to be about when things are going bad....

[Klomp]

We get it.

It's usually a bummer to be a Wolves fan, especially if you live and die with each win/loss. I for one am sick of having to not only deal with the negative results on the court, but also the negative/cynical sentiments of our fan base.

It's tough enough to be a fan of a struggling team/franchise, without also having swarms of negativity from the people that are supposed to get entertainment out of watching them piled on top.

So here is one single thread in a sea of many others, that is ONLY for positive posts about the Wolves.

If you need to escape the lows of the season, simply come in here and try to put things into perspective. At the end of the day, this really is just a basketball team we follow, so we may as well try to enjoy it.

Absolutely (ur)insane that this thread has gone 7 years before we could enjoy a season like this!

I know there's a lot of frustrations among the fan base about the PF position or the PG or only getting to the play-in or only beating injured teams, but let's enjoy this next couple weeks. We should know better than anyone that these fun seasons are not guaranteed.

[urinesane]

WOLVES BACK.

[KGdaBom]

Wolves in 6.

[King Malta]

WOLVES BACK.

We the ones, Jack