Constructing the Timberwolves rotation

[minimus]

Just thinking things over, besides obvious top 10 NBA superstars, who do you thin we could plug into the 3 and 4 spots next season that would pretty much lock us into being a good playoff team? (3-6 seed). I'm having trouble of thinking of two players that would benefit us that much.

I have been thinking about this lately. The way our roster is constructed with KAT/Reid taking 100% playing time only at C, DLo and Malik being explosive offensive backcourt it leaves us PF/SF slots to bring toughness, defense, rebounding.

1) Its clear that an ideal PF candidate should be mobile, strong, versatile defender with above average for PF passing skills. My first candidate is Justise Winslow. His offense is elite, he can play some point, he will improve his shooting, great contract. However, MEM was a bit faster to get him when his value was the lowest. There is no way they will trade him

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.
My second choice is Aaron Gordon, for same reasons: mobile, strong, versatile defender with above average for PF passing skills. He is made for our high pace offensive system and will be absolute terror running the floor with KAT/DLo/Beasley, dunking everything. His contract is great, his passing is solid. He is on trading block, our ORL roster is poorly balanced with Vuc, Mamba, Isaac, Aminu all playing C/PF spots.
Grant Williams can develop into such player in future.

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2) With regard of SF spot it is a bit tricky. First, I am happy with Okogie playing at SF. He seems to be thriving next to shooters and for will improve more, dedicating whole offseason to develop his individual skills rather than playing overseas. Second, I am okay with using SF slot to give some playing time for FRP such as Avdija/Okoro. Third, we have already cheap options such as Layman (and possible Kelan Martin) to fill SF position.

3) I think it will be combination of trade, good draft and FAs addition, internal improvements that will make us a playoff team. I see us getting one solid starter (Gordon), one veteran backup (Harkless) and one future star (Hayes, Hampton). As I wrote before I think we will acquire high level defense in trades and FA, since it costs historically less high level offense, and we will draft high level offensive creator. I am enamoured with idea of bringing here exPOR defensive wing Moe Harkless, because I feel like it can make us wonder. Familiarity, experience and fit are as much as valuable as pure talent. McLaughlin, DLo have worked with Pablo Prigioni before, Layman worked with Vanterpool before. We need this as foundation. Thats why improved chemistry, consistency in coaching and development are my biggest hopes for the next season. I want us to bring back Malik, Juancho, McLaughlin and Kelan. Yes, they might not be stars, but if we draft well we might finally have a deep, balanced roster, where players really fit each other. At this point of team development I feel that rather than trying to bring here Booker, Beal, FVV, and other top level stars by trading half of our resources(picks, young players etc), we need to grow organically.

[Klomp]

This is going to gross some people out, but a name I thought about that would be.....interesting.....is Royce White.

[winforlose]

If the lakers would take our second round pick and Spellman for Kuzma, would you do it?

[Neeva]

If the lakers would take our second round pick and Spellman for Kuzma, would you do it?

Depends what is available at second round pick and what kuzma’s next contract will be.

[winforlose]

[vine][/vine]

If the lakers would take our second round pick and Spellman for Kuzma, would you do it?

Depends what is available at second round pick and what kuzma’s next contract will be.

These are both tough questions. Lakers don’t have much in the way of draft capital the next few years. I could see them wanting to save the cost of Kuzma and valuing two cheap contracts in Spellman and the #33-35 pick. 2021 is a big FA year where money will get tossed at big names. That said, we might get stuck paying him big money or moving on. Also, we could trade him at the trade deadline and try and get a first or a better fit player.

[Klomp]

I have been thinking about this lately. The way our roster is constructed with KAT/Reid taking 100% playing time only at C, DLo and Malik being explosive offensive backcourt it leaves us PF/SF slots to bring toughness, defense, rebounding.

Along those same lines, one name I've thought about is Miles Bridges. I've thought a little about DJ Wilson too.

[minimus]

It's clear that an ideal PF candidate should be a mobile, strong, versatile defender with above-average for PF passing skills.

Why I keep saying that our PF should have above average passing skills. If you watch our lineup with Beasley, Juancho, Reid, DLo you can see how hard opponents try to closeout our shooters. They do this because all Beasley, Juancho, Reid, DLo are above league average 3pt shooters. If you put a willing passer/slasher in the rotation he can elevate ball movement by doing simple things such as attack from triple threat position and making an extra pass. That's exactly what happens now with our team offense: they are making an extra pass, they are moving the ball and off the ball.

[minimus]

I have been thinking about this lately. The way our roster is constructed with KAT/Reid taking 100% playing time only at C, DLo and Malik being explosive offensive backcourt it leaves us PF/SF slots to bring toughness, defense, rebounding.

Along those same lines, one name I've thought about is Miles Bridges. I've thought a little about DJ Wilson too.

Yeah, I like Miles Bridge game! He is only 21yo

I dont see CHA trading him, but maybe just maybe we can get top3 pick and they get top5, then I would trade LaMelo for Hayes + Bridges

[minimus]

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As always a very good analysis. We can learn many things from HOU small ball, but as usual small ball or any other offensive/defensive scheme is only a tool, which you need to use in a right way.

[winforlose]

So an interesting experiment when KAT is back.

Starting

Dlo
Beasley
Okogie
Reid
KAT

Edit to fix what was bad second half suggestion.

Second unit

JMAC
Culver
Layman
JH
JJ

[Jedzz]

I have been thinking about this lately. The way our roster is constructed with KAT/Reid taking 100% playing time only at C, DLo and Malik being explosive offensive backcourt it leaves us PF/SF slots to bring toughness, defense, rebounding.

1) Its clear that an ideal PF candidate should be mobile, strong, versatile defender with above average for PF passing skills. My first candidate is Justise Winslow. His offense is elite, he can play some point, he will improve his shooting, great contract.

If we only had a playoff year for every time someone claimed this new guy can/will/should improve his shooting.

We already have JJ. Look at your requirement again. Committ to him and figuring out how to do it in a financial way that works if they can. Then add another cheaper one = draft?

Or, pay one of all these recent suggestions sure. But I don't see any of them really being better for any specific reason. Gordon has that "fake" size bit that could help the fit here. Otherwise I see them all as names with cost. Granted, JJ isn't getting paid pennies this season. I don't know what JJ's cost looks like in a new deal.

[post0115]

[quote="winforlose"]So an interesting experiment when KAT is back.

Starting

Dlo
Beasley
Okogie
Reid
KAT

Edit to fix what was bad second half suggestion.

Second unit

JMAC
Culver
Layman
JH
JJ[/quote]

I was thinking something along those lines too. We paired KAT and Naz together in the starting lineup before the trades and it did surprisingly well. Naz switched against 4's a lot better than I thought he would, but can punish smaller 4's on defense. Long term I would find a replacement to Okogie in the starting lineup (hopefully draft pick like Avdija) and put him back to the bench where he can be an early sub for Beasley so Beasley can be the main scoring option with the 2nd unit. Seeing Culver next to Zion made me wonder if we should get him some minutes at the 4 as well. The only problem is that creates 2 spots for 3 players (Culver, Juancho, and Layman), but that is a good problem to have. Even with Naz starting at the 4 I think we should keep him capped around 25 minutes with Juancho picking up the vast remainder. I also like JJ as the small ball 5 with the 2nd unit as he should give that C some fits.

[minimus]

The funniest thing to think about is that Thibs brought here defensive minded players(Dieng, Aldrich, Butler, Gibson, Rush etc) and built an offensive minded team. Rosas brings here offensive minded players that together might end up as a better defensive team.

[minimus]

If you have 10 mins, you can enjoy reading these articles:

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So what exactly is going on here?

The Hawks struggle with every phase of the game, but their defensive awakening has to start with Young. Individual defense remains a difficult skill to quantify, but members of two separate teams told ESPN that their in-house models have pegged Young as one of the worst defenders in the league. Other publicly facing metrics like defensive real plus-minus concur, with Young ranking 493rd out of 495 players.

Monday through Friday, host Mina Kimes brings you an inside look at the most interesting stories at ESPN, as told by the top reporters and insiders on the planet. Listen

Part of this is youth -- young players struggle to play great defense, and young point guards are thrown right into the front lines, guarding the best playmakers on the planet at the point of attack. One night you're tasked with stopping Chris Paul, the next night you might have Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard or Kyle Lowry dying to make you look bad.

Part of this is effort. Defense requires equal parts athleticism, smarts and effort, and Young isn't bringing all three of those to the table right now. At this point it's fair to question whether he can ever play satisfactory defense in the NBA.

Young is 6-1 and 180 pounds -- one of the slightest rotation players in the league -- and it's that primitive limitation that hurts him the most on defense. He has no room for error, yet his effort doesn't reflect that reality. When he misses one of those go-to deep 3s, too often he takes it easy on the other end. Other times he's forced to act as the last line of defense because he's the last man back, and there's nothing he can do given his size. That's an issue.

In a league obsessed with pick-and-rolls, Young is simply not big enough or strong enough to fight through screens, and it shows up in the numbers. Among the 79 players with at least 600 such plays, he allows the sixth-most points per chance leaguewide when defending ball handlers in pick-and-roll, per Second Spectrum.

He's arguably one of the worst pick-and-roll defenders in the NBA. That's not good news for a front office charged with building a playoff team around him. He's not long enough to contest shots or clog up passing lanes. He's not bulky enough to rebound. He lacks the body to contain larger NBA guards.

But there are plenty of small NBA guards who still manage to play better defense than Young. Just look at the Oklahoma City Thunder, whose three main guards are all relatively small. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Paul (6-foot-1) and Dennis Schroder (6-1) all weigh 180 pounds or less, and when that trio is on the floor, OKC outscores opponents by 29.6 points per 100 possessions.

Fair or not, Young is the culture driver in Atlanta, and right now that story lacks a consistent character, especially on defense. While other NBA teams featuring young phenoms are currently busy writing exciting new postseason chapters, the Hawks are struggling with Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde-him-on-defense. Unless the defensive culture around the team suddenly changes, next year's chapter will be just as scary.

https://africa.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28822418/the-problems-trae-young-signature-plays

"It's kind of a unique team in that our little guys can guard big guys," Houston coach Mike D'Antoni said, citing a significant factor in the Rockets' decision to commit to small ball, a style that has unleashed Russell Westbrook to wreak havoc with the floor wide open because of shooting threats surrounding him.

Opponents might be able to shoot over Tucker, Gordon or Harden, but it usually won't be from the spot they want, and they won't elevate with great balance as the shot is released.

"Teams think they have a mismatch by going inside," a scout from an Eastern Conference team said, "and they don't."

That's especially true with Harden, who often starts games with the opposing center as his primary defensive assignment, allowing Tucker to defend the most dangerous frontcourt scoring threat. According to NBA Advanced Stats, Harden has defended a league-high 101 post-ups this season, allowing only 0.60 points per possession on 29.5% shooting. That's tied for the stingiest of the 50 players who have defended the most post-ups.

This isn't a statistical fluke.

Harden allowed 0.68 points per possession on a league-leading 212 post-ups defended last season. That tied for second stingiest among the 50 highest-volume post defenders, behind only Gordon (0.55). His numbers were similarly impressive the season before.

"He's strong as hell and smart as s---," a rival Western Conference assistant coach said of Harden.

The Rockets essentially invite teams to pound the ball inside by playing small and switching every screen. Pick-and-rolls, the bread and butter of the modern NBA offense, tend to break down into post-ups or isolation plays.

https://abc13.com/5987501/

There are plenty of interesting insights here. Plenty of things that our young team might learn to improve their defense and offense. It is true that we build something special, and I hope we are playing smart to maximize our strength and minimize our weaknesses. One area I want us to improve badly is shot selection in offense and defending 3pt line and fast breaks. Do not allow open threes, give effort in sprinting back in defense. This alone would make a better team.

[minimus]

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Wait, I was told that DLo is a ball-dominant PG who cant play off the ball.

P.S. Ryan is the worst coach in the league who is bad at developing players and not giving time to rookies. Fire him!

[minimus]

After watching a ton of videos, I am ready to present my vision of MIN rotation for the next season.

Lets start with positivites:
* - KAT elite offensive game + improved passing + solid rebounding.
* - DLo unlimited shooting range + elite mid range shooting + elite passing skills + leadership
* - Beasley elite catch-n-shoot game, competitiveness, motor
* - Okogie solid defense on PoA and non stop motor
* - Juancho elite catch-n-shoot game for stretch four
* - Naz Reid potential as stretch five with excellent passing skills
* - Jake Layman versatility
* - ML development into potential backup PG
* - Culver defense
* - JJ veteran presence and versatility

Areas to improve:
* - interior defense
* - rebounding
* - defense against big wings
* - lack of secondary ballhandler

Solution:

I believe that we can be at least average at rebounding and protecting the rim once KAT is back and rotation is set. The real problem to me is controlling the pace and defending 3pt line and fastbreaks. I am okay to give up a few shots at rim when opponent bigs postup our smaller lineup. I believe that analytic approach works BOTH ways, long story short: hit more 3s, allow less 3s, allow less easy shots. Basically we need to continue to build anti-Thibs model. Under Thibs we were pounding the rock no matter what, we were last in defending and hitting 3s, we did not defend corner 3s. We are set at C, SG and PG positions with KAT/Reid, Beasley/Okogie/Culver, DLo/ML. We need to fill PF/SF carefully. In this scenario I am okay to give up some size in order to gain advantage in mobility, versatility, ability to defend in space. Anti-Thibs pattern, instead of pairing KAT with traditional big (Dieng, Gibson), we need to pair him with big wing who is able to guard 1-through-4. We don't have such player in roster, JJ does not fit our window, that is why we will acquire long-term PF via trade, draft or FA market. Lets draw some lines here.

1) there is only one player available for trade that fit our criteria as PF. Aaron Gordon. Trade JJ, Culver, SRP for Gordon.
2) draft Okoro, he is an ideal fit here, strong, big wing, high motor. He is able to guard 1-through-4

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3) draft Maledon as insurance at SG/PG position

By trading Culver we will create roster space for Nowell and Martin. I like Culver a lot, but his skillset as defender overlaps with Okogie and Okoro, his passing game is solid but if we draft Maledon we can mitigate this problem. I believe in Martin because of his self-confidence, Russell connection and physical tools 6'7" with 7'3" wingspan. Gordon-Juancho-Layman-Okoro-Martin-Okogie-Beasley is solid rotation on wings.

KAT/Reid/Spellman
Gordon/Juancho/Vanderbilt
Layman/Okoro/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Nowell
DLo/Maledon/ML

[minimus]

I've just realised that Treveon Graham is archetype of SF/PF that I would look for in our system. Around 240lbs, 6'6"”, 6'11"” wingspan. A defensive minded big wing who give all effort in defense and knows his role in offense. We started this season strong by playing Graham/RoCo. I would like to check Jae Crowder price this offseason, if he asks for a deal similar to Tyus, I'd sign him in a heartbeat. Okoro also fits this criteria, string, quick, aggressive, smart defender. Around 230lbs, 6'6"”, 6'9"” wingspan. Sign Jae Crowder, trade JJ, Culver, SRP for Gordon, draft Okoro, Maledon. Pairing Crowder+Gordon might be enough to finally make KAT comfortable as only rim protector. Allow Okoro to learn and grow in role of defensive minded backup wing.

KAT/Reid/Spellman
Gordon/Juancho/Okoro
Crowder/Okoro/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Nowell
DLo/ML/Maledon

P.S. What happened to Justin Anderson and Stanley Johnson? Both have incredible physical tools, but failed hard.

[minimus]

As mentioned, Martin's offense may have not caught up to the NBA level but his defense did. Martin was towards the top of the team in defensive rating with a 103.1 rating. For perspective, Gorgui Dieng had a 102.6 rating and defensive ace Treveon Graham had a 108.9 rating. Again, it may not show in the box score, but this is impressive considering that Martin was given little chance to get use to his teammates, especially when the team was basically remade at the deadline, via practice.

https://dunkingwithwolves.com/2020/03/29/minnesota-timberwolves-kelan-martin-rookie-year/

This is why I want us to re-sign Martin to 1+3 deal. 6'7” w a 7'+ wingspan, 238lbs.

[Jedzz]

[vine][/vine]

If the lakers would take our second round pick and Spellman for Kuzma, would you do it?

Depends what is available at second round pick and what kuzma’s next contract will be.

These are both tough questions. Lakers don’t have much in the way of draft capital the next few years. I could see them wanting to save the cost of Kuzma and valuing two cheap contracts in Spellman and the #33-35 pick. 2021 is a big FA year where money will get tossed at big names. That said, we might get stuck paying him big money or moving on. Also, we could trade him at the trade deadline and try and get a first or a better fit player.

How do the Wolves get a frp for him at the deadline if the Lakers could not? The position he would play here is not exactly featured for game leading scoring and publicity. The way shot has dropped off It's hard to like this idea of him in this system unless they could revive his shot. I've never been fond of taking in players they plan to move soon or the next deadline. Looks like Rosas may have no problem with it though.

[shrink]

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Wait, I was told that DLo is a ball-dominant PG who cant play off the ball.

P.S. Ryan is the worst coach in the league who is bad at developing players and not giving time to rookies. Fire him!

They have played a total of 45 minutes together.

If people find significance in small samples, I think they’d want to fire Russell, since in 25 minutes Russell and Towns together have a NEGATIVE 20.3 Net Rating. I guess Paynting would say it’s “un-savvy” to put those two together.

I don’t know why anyone follows this guy on Twitter.