Re: Trade Talk (Part Twelve): 2023 Playoff Push Edition

[Klomp]

Trading low on Gobert or KAT is just not the move. Unless KAT has another injury plagued year next season he will most definitely raise his value, so there's no point to making a move now. Let them have some continuity, let the coaching staff learn from the season and build a better system for the pieces they have, and see how it works next season. They can always trade KAT at the deadline if the writing is on the wall.

Trading now you most definitely set things back a bit and never get to see what this roster can be with familiarity, a better system, and an extra year of development from McDaniels/Ant/Naz (assuming they keep him).

Just having an offseason/training camp together I think this squad comes out pissed off next season and rips off some decent winning streaks. They were constantly sh*t on this season from the moment the Gobert trade happened until the playoffs ended for them, they are going to have a chip on their shoulders and something to prove.

I'll play your game. What happens when we wait until next year, and the "experiment" is absolutely awful. The gap between Edwards and Rudy is deeper and even more obvious than before. Kat continues to struggle and fails to put up as good of stats at power forward and his defense also dwindles.

Now you have towns who is statistically done for the second year, likely unhappy, and not nearly as valuable as he would be right now. You also have Rudy, who has alienated teammates, is in a system that doesn't work for him, and has value that has dropped even lower than it is right now. In addition to that, you've lost several players due to salary cap like Naz, that you could have resigned had you made a move of one of these two if not both. You also waste another year of Ant and risk his unhappiness growing.

Other gms will definitely line up to help us out right?

If he's an upgrade at C (which I think about 25 teams would say) and they need to make a big move, there aren't many better options out there.

[Norseman79]

If Minnesota trades Karl-Anthony Towns, he would return comfortably more than most of the posts in the thread, over the past few pages. Gotta be honest, I really don’t get the fascination with trading him for mediocre prospects and garbage.

What would a realistic package look like to you? Just float out a couple names and picks as an example

[Norseman79]

Trading low on Gobert or KAT is just not the move. Unless KAT has another injury plagued year next season he will most definitely raise his value, so there's no point to making a move now. Let them have some continuity, let the coaching staff learn from the season and build a better system for the pieces they have, and see how it works next season. They can always trade KAT at the deadline if the writing is on the wall.

Trading now you most definitely set things back a bit and never get to see what this roster can be with familiarity, a better system, and an extra year of development from McDaniels/Ant/Naz (assuming they keep him).

Just having an offseason/training camp together I think this squad comes out pissed off next season and rips off some decent winning streaks. They were constantly sh*t on this season from the moment the Gobert trade happened until the playoffs ended for them, they are going to have a chip on their shoulders and something to prove.

I'll play your game. What happens when we wait until next year, and the "experiment" is absolutely awful. The gap between Edwards and Rudy is deeper and even more obvious than before. Kat continues to struggle and fails to put up as good of stats at power forward and his defense also dwindles.

Now you have towns who is statistically done for the second year, likely unhappy, and not nearly as valuable as he would be right now. You also have Rudy, who has alienated teammates, is in a system that doesn't work for him, and has value that has dropped even lower than it is right now. In addition to that, you've lost several players due to salary cap like Naz, that you could have resigned had you made a move of one of these two if not both. You also waste another year of Ant and risk his unhappiness growing.

Other gms will definitely line up to help us out right?

If he's an upgrade at C (which I think about 25 teams would say) and they need to make a big move, there aren't many better options out there.

The problem is, even if he is an upgrade, if other teams know we are stuck we are going to get a lower price.

[Baseline81]

Read on Twitter

[shrink]

If he's an upgrade at C (which I think about 25 teams would say) and they need to make a big move, there aren't many better options out there.

The problem is, even if he is an upgrade, if other teams know we are stuck we are going to get a lower price.

No. KAT has 30 specific values to the 30 teams in the league.

Say he’s worth 12 “units” to MIN and 18 units to ATL. If they offered us 15 units, they’d be “helping us out” and both teams would be happy with the trade.

But there aren’t just two teams in the league. If KAT is also worth 18 units to BOS, they’d be willing to offer 16 units, and outbid ATL. And maybe ATL says that they’ll offer 17.. etc. And for players of this caliber, we often see teams overpaying, just to win the auction and take their shot.

The loudest talking heads in the national media love to point out what Towns does poorly, and this is repeated ad nauseum by several posters on RealGM. He has several habits I dislike. But the truth is, even with his warts, he is a very talented basketball player. It is rare that All-NBA players even become available for trade in the NBA. I doubt he gets traded. But if he made available, teams are going to bid against each other to try to add him to their team.

[cmoss84]

I posted this a while back without much response (maybe because it is a terrible idea, who knows?)
Wolves get Bridges, Simmons, x draft picks
For
KAT, Prince, Moore, Jmac, and Knight
(Not sure if this is anywhere close; Ben would replace Naz and we probably would not have enough for NAW)

[urinesane]

Trading low on Gobert or KAT is just not the move. Unless KAT has another injury plagued year next season he will most definitely raise his value, so there's no point to making a move now. Let them have some continuity, let the coaching staff learn from the season and build a better system for the pieces they have, and see how it works next season. They can always trade KAT at the deadline if the writing is on the wall.

Trading now you most definitely set things back a bit and never get to see what this roster can be with familiarity, a better system, and an extra year of development from McDaniels/Ant/Naz (assuming they keep him).

Just having an offseason/training camp together I think this squad comes out pissed off next season and rips off some decent winning streaks. They were constantly sh*t on this season from the moment the Gobert trade happened until the playoffs ended for them, they are going to have a chip on their shoulders and something to prove.

I'll play your game. What happens when we wait until next year, and the "experiment" is absolutely awful. The gap between Edwards and Rudy is deeper and even more obvious than before. Kat continues to struggle and fails to put up as good of stats at power forward and his defense also dwindles.

Now you have towns who is statistically done for the second year, likely unhappy, and not nearly as valuable as he would be right now. You also have Rudy, who has alienated teammates, is in a system that doesn't work for him, and has value that has dropped even lower than it is right now. In addition to that, you've lost several players due to salary cap like Naz, that you could have resigned had you made a move of one of these two if not both. You also waste another year of Ant and risk his unhappiness growing.

Other gms will definitely line up to help us out right?

You're making A LOT of assumptions in your post (what happens "when"? I think you mean "if").

Here are some facts:
KATs value is the lowest it's ever been.
Gobert's value is the lowest it's ever been.

You're assuming that somehow with more familiarity/better system (and hopefully better health) that it works WORSE than it did this season? How is that even possible?

Also, Naz can be resigned regardless of KAT/Gobert being on the team, not sure why you assume it's one or the other.

I haven't seen a single trade for KAT or Gobert that gets us a player that makes this team a 2nd round in the playoffs type team.

Right now, if they remain healthy and get more time to develop with each other, they are a 2nd round team (with the roster they currently have). Getting draft picks doesn't help this team play more meaningful games, which is the most important thing right now for our future (having Ant/McDaniels playing in as many games that matter as possible).

Your scenario is literally the worst case and you're acting like it's inevitable if we don't make a drastic move. I forgot how much of a Chicken Little type poster you are...

You lose way more if you sell low right now than if you give it a bit more time (sort of like trading DLo last summer would have gotten them nowhere near what they got before the deadline) and one of them simply returns to their average level of play next season.

[shrink]

NBA executives see Heat, Nets, Trail Blazers, Celtics, Knicks and Pacers as potential destinations for Karl-Anthony Towns:

I thought I’d try to use this anonymous, clickbait article for productively, to show how few teams can make a realistic offer for KAT.

1. Stars have value because they consolidate talent into one player. You can only put five players on a basketball court at once, so consolidating a 25 PPG scorer into one guy is usually more valuable than getting three 15 PPG scorers. This is especially true for MIN, who is unlikely to get stars in free agency. If MIN trades away a star, they need a star back.

2. Among these teams, I don’t see a legit package in a straight up deal. For most, the bulk of the value would have to come from a bunch of picks. Which picks have team control, I don’t see Connolly making the team worse in a win-later move. I also think that KAT isn’t a legit Batman, but on the right team, he could be one of the best Robins in NBA history. For us, that means only two teams have a headliner that would make a Towns trade appealing

BOS could pair KAT with Tatum, and base a deal on Jaylen Brown. There are several rumors that Brown may not want to stay in Boston, but nothing has been substantiated. MIN would need to know Brown wanted to be here, and would sign an extension. To me, KAT doesn’t seem like a BOS type of player, but they could probably surround him with enough defense to make him a big help for Tatum.

BRK could send out Bridges, and pair KAT with “whatever star(s) they can lure in free agency.” I haven’t heard that Towns is particularly connected with other stars (except Paul George), but any offensive-minded star could see how Towns would improve their own numbers, and make the game easier for them. Maybe it’s easier to attract a free agent star if you already have one. But if I was BRK, I’d hang onto Bridges. Maybe you can clear enough cap space to attract two stars (and not waste assets by making a trade), and Bridges can compliment any new star.

The other teams? Meh. A bunch of picks from a contender? Ick. Five minor assets? Nah. It’s better to run the experiment fully, with practices and new additions like Conley to see what this team can look like,

[urinesane]

I posted this a while back without much response (maybe because it is a terrible idea, who knows?)
Wolves get Bridges, Simmons, x draft picks
For
KAT, Prince, Moore, Jmac, and Knight
(Not sure if this is anywhere close; Ben would replace Naz and we probably would not have enough for NAW)

How would Simmons replace Naz?

Their games are completely different (and Naz's game has way more value on this team).

[cmoss84]

I posted this a while back without much response (maybe because it is a terrible idea, who knows?)
Wolves get Bridges, Simmons, x draft picks
For
KAT, Prince, Moore, Jmac, and Knight
(Not sure if this is anywhere close; Ben would replace Naz and we probably would not have enough for NAW)

How would Simmons replace Naz?

Their games are completely different (and Naz's game has way more value on this team).

I just meant in the rotation...

[cmoss84]

The whole premise is based upon having to take on Simmons in order to get Bridges.

[shrink]

Since MIN is such a poor destination to attract free agents, it is paramount that we look for players with team control, so they just don’t leave for nothing at their earliest possibility.

To me, that fact immediately excludes Simmons, Kyrie and Harden - three players that have been under contract with playoff-level teams, and still forced their way off of them. We also can’t have any of these guys whispering in Ant’s ear.

[Domejandro]

If Minnesota trades Karl-Anthony Towns, he would return comfortably more than most of the posts in the thread, over the past few pages. Gotta be honest, I really don’t get the fascination with trading him for mediocre prospects and garbage.

What would a realistic package look like to you? Just float out a couple names and picks as an example

Once the Draft Lottery occurs, I’ll be able to better speculate.

[Domejandro]

Since MIN is such a poor destination to attract free agents, it is paramount that we look for players with team control, so they just don’t leave for nothing at their earliest possibility.

To me, that fact immediately excludes Simmons, Kyrie and Harden - three players that have been under contract with playoff-level teams, and still forced their way off of them. We also can’t have any of these guys whispering in Ant’s ear.

Ben Simmons is pretty clearly a salary ballast, in that hypothetical. Conflating him to being a Kyrie Irving or James Harden doesn’t carry water, the swap is Mikal Bridges and bad salary for Karl-Anthony Towns.

[urinesane]

Since MIN is such a poor destination to attract free agents, it is paramount that we look for players with team control, so they just don’t leave for nothing at their earliest possibility.

To me, that fact immediately excludes Simmons, Kyrie and Harden - three players that have been under contract with playoff-level teams, and still forced their way off of them. We also can’t have any of these guys whispering in Ant’s ear.

Ben Simmons is pretty clearly a salary ballast, in that hypothetical. Conflating him to being a Kyrie Irving or James Harden doesn’t carry water, the swap is Mikal Bridges and bad salary for Karl-Anthony Towns.

I love Bridges, but that's not a deal the Wolves should make.

[urinesane]

NBA executives see Heat, Nets, Trail Blazers, Celtics, Knicks and Pacers as potential destinations for Karl-Anthony Towns:

I thought I’d try to use this anonymous, clickbait article for productively, to show how few teams can make a realistic offer for KAT.

1. Stars have value because they consolidate talent into one player. You can only put five players on a basketball court at once, so consolidating a 25 PPG scorer into one guy is usually more valuable than getting three 15 PPG scorers. This is especially true for MIN, who is unlikely to get stars in free agency. If MIN trades away a star, they need a star back.

2. Among these teams, I don’t see a legit package in a straight up deal. For most, the bulk of the value would have to come from a bunch of picks. Which picks have team control, I don’t see Connolly making the team worse in a win-later move. I also think that KAT isn’t a legit Batman, but on the right team, he could be one of the best Robins in NBA history. For us, that means only two teams have a headliner that would make a Towns trade appealing

BOS could pair KAT with Tatum, and base a deal on Jaylen Brown. There are several rumors that Brown may not want to stay in Boston, but nothing has been substantiated. MIN would need to know Brown wanted to be here, and would sign an extension. To me, KAT doesn’t seem like a BOS type of player, but they could probably surround him with enough defense to make him a big help for Tatum.

BRK could send out Bridges, and pair KAT with “whatever star(s) they can lure in free agency.” I haven’t heard that Towns is particularly connected with other stars (except Paul George), but any offensive-minded star could see how Towns would improve their own numbers, and make the game easier for them. Maybe it’s easier to attract a free agent star if you already have one. But if I was BRK, I’d hang onto Bridges. Maybe you can clear enough cap space to attract two stars (and not waste assets by making a trade), and Bridges can compliment any new star.

The other teams? Meh. A bunch of picks from a contender? Ick. Five minor assets? Nah. It’s better to run the experiment fully, with practices and new additions like Conley to see what this team can look like,

Good stuff as usual shrink...

...but can we stop using the Batman/Robin analogy?

It's never made sense. This isn't a 2x2 league and they aren't super heroes (or billionaire vigilantes). Also, Batman and Robin AREN'T REAL PEOPLE. We have plenty of examples of past NBA players to draw from, we don't need to compare players to a master detective and an acrobat.

Such a played out and useless analogy (especially since Robin hasn't even been in the newer movies!).

[shrink]

Since MIN is such a poor destination to attract free agents, it is paramount that we look for players with team control, so they just don’t leave for nothing at their earliest possibility.

To me, that fact immediately excludes Simmons, Kyrie and Harden - three players that have been under contract with playoff-level teams, and still forced their way off of them. We also can’t have any of these guys whispering in Ant’s ear.

Ben Simmons is pretty clearly a salary ballast, in that hypothetical. Conflating him to being a Kyrie Irving or James Harden doesn’t carry water, the swap is Mikal Bridges and bad salary for Karl-Anthony Towns.

I think our team would have to waive Simmons, and the two years left on his salary, rather than risk him showing Ant how to leverage himself out of a team. Other teams might believe Simmons could be salvaged, so he’d have more value there. But maybe not.

But I tend to believe this is a “what have you done for me lately?” league, with GM and Coach jobs on the line. People thought Simmons’ sit out year was horrible, and if he went elsewhere, he’d be better. Well, that happened, and he was unplayable at times in BRK. I was shocked any NBA player could have more personal fouls on a season than made baskets, and even more shocked posters seem to ignore his last two years.

[TimberKat]

I am thinking we take all our tradable salary to get a quality guy. Prince 7.6m + NAW 7.0M + Naz 12M + JMcl 2 M = 30M guy.

Our Top 8: Towns, Ant, Gobert, Conley, KA, JMcD, 30m guy, Vet min guy. With Moore, Minnott, Garza get some minutes.

Maybe 25Mil guy and we keep NAW. We need to spend that on someone who can create his own shots. That is the only thing I missed from DLo.

You would need to sign and trade multiple people if you intend to do it this offseason, as far as I know you can't attach people in a sign and trade. Could be wrong.

Who would this mythical person be?

I did a quick search for the 30mil player and didn't find an obvious answer so I will leave it up to the real GMs to figure it out. DeRozan is the closest unless you want Deandre Ayton. Since we can’t (or not easily) attach player to sign and trade anyway, maybe it is split into two players. Get Hield or VanVleet will be good. Closely watching GSW. If they don't pass SAC, they may unload a player or two.

[Domejandro]

Since MIN is such a poor destination to attract free agents, it is paramount that we look for players with team control, so they just don’t leave for nothing at their earliest possibility.

To me, that fact immediately excludes Simmons, Kyrie and Harden - three players that have been under contract with playoff-level teams, and still forced their way off of them. We also can’t have any of these guys whispering in Ant’s ear.

Ben Simmons is pretty clearly a salary ballast, in that hypothetical. Conflating him to being a Kyrie Irving or James Harden doesn’t carry water, the swap is Mikal Bridges and bad salary for Karl-Anthony Towns.

I think our team would have to waive Simmons, and the two years left on his salary, rather than risk him showing Ant how to leverage himself out of a team. Other teams might believe Simmons could be salvaged, so he’d have more value there. But maybe not.

But I tend to believe this is a “what have you done for me lately?” league, with GM and Coach jobs on the line. People thought Simmons’ sit out year was horrible, and if he went elsewhere, he’d be better. Well, that happened, and he was unplayable at times in BRK. I was shocked any NBA player could have more personal fouls on a season than made baskets, and even more shocked posters seem to ignore his last two years.

The premise of Ben Simmons "showing Ant how to leverage himself out of a team" is super silly, I really don't understand why that's a talking point you've held onto for this long. Anthony Edwards is a grown man and Ben Simmons isn't the Serpent in the Garden.

I'm not even advocating for the trade (I'd only consider it if ownership was willing to dip into the Luxury-Tax), I honestly think Minnesota should just run it back. I just don't think Ben Simmons is this mysterious being that can influence Anthony Edwards into weaseling his way out of Minnesota; that whole concept is outlandish, especially given that Minnesota has plenty of other competent veterans.

[Neeva]

I can’t believe it’s almost mid 2023 and there is still Ben Simmons talk on the wolves trade board smh.