The Jaylen Nowell Thread

[mplsfonz23]

How much more valuable are 2nd round picks now, compared to 10 years ago? Seems like the top end talent in the lottery is similar, but the depth throughout the draft has gone up significantly.

Yeah, 10 years ago it was a success if you even made an NBA team. I think it's a product of year round sports. When they were 8-9 years old they played probably 362 days a years somewhere. Exception was Christmas, New years day (maybe) and Easter.
Year round access to training, and sponsors for the kids with talent. My son played in AAU/MYAS but due to him having a dad that 1. couldn't afford every camp and team, and 2 wanted him to learn something else in life like fishing, camping, etc.
My cuz has a fairly famous husband, and I can tell you, he doesn't know crap outside of BBall. (Can't hang a picture mirror because he doesn't know how to find a stud.) Tore the whole wall out.

I also think this is a main reason that some of these players have a lot of knee issues. ACL/MCL etc.

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

[younggunsmn]

https://www.skornorth.com/wolves-2/2019/07/source-wolves-nowell-remain-distant-in-contract-negotiations/

So apparently we offered Nowell the same deal we gave reid (4 years at the minimum with only the first year guaranteed), and Nowell understandably declined, and wants a deal like we gave KBD (3 years with 2 guaranteed).
Honestly, that's kind of embarrassing we expected him to sign that.

If you want a guy to sign a deal essentially delaying restricted free agency 2 years and playing for the minimum, you ought to be willing to guarantee more money.
Guaranteeing his 2nd year doesnt affect our cap room next summer unless we have to cut him during the year, which would be pretty surprising.
Hopefully we can meet somewhere in the middle and get him signed for 3 or 4 years. We could use our MLE to pay him more the first year.

[Worm Guts]

I don’t think it’s that uncommon to give no guaranteed years to a 2nd round pick. He could ask for less guaranteed years if that’s his beef.

[Jedzz]

Less guaranteed years? Not sure how that's possible. Maybe to have his rights locked up to less years if they are going to be at minimum and unguaranteed. I hope they don't wreck this kid's heart for the game or willingness to play here. To own a guy's rights for his first four years and guarantee nothing is a big deal for them. It seems like there is more to this player than typical scrub treatment.

Watch on YouTube

This guy seems like a smooth operator, combined with a skilled all heart player. This is where players like Lillard come from. Show them a bit of respect and trust early on and have it repaid longterm if it works out.

I'm not sure if he's shown PG playmaking as much as they might think of a PG here. I don't think he's a Tyus/Rubio type, more a Lillard type as PG. Could also maybe be more like Utah's Donovan Mitchell type as a shooting/combo guard.

We may all of a sudden have a glut of shooting guards. Well, that's if you plan on allowing Wiggins to eat up some time at that position yet again. But I might argue Jaylen shows more poise and ability than the few we have. Don't screw this up.

[Jedzz]

Does anyone here have an open enough mind to see a possibility that Jaylen Nowell could already be, or eventually be, a better NBA player than Culver? Or are we all just so inclined that since one was a top 6 pick and the other a second rounder that this is the only way to see their value forever?

If you see there is that possibility, how does the team make sure to not squander that possibility? How would you want the team to manage him in order to make sure Nowell is given that opportunity to show it? I don't really have that answer, because I'm well aware of how this team has operated in the past and I'm unsure how Rosas operates this team just yet.

[Worm Guts]

Does anyone here have an open enough mind to see a possibility that Jaylen Nowell could already be, or eventually be, a better NBA player than Culver? Or are we all just so inclined that since one was a top 6 pick and the other a second rounder that this is the only way to see their value forever?

If you see there is that possibility, how does the team make sure to not squander that possibility? How would you want the team to manage him in order to make sure Nowell is given that opportunity to show it? I don't really have that answer, because I'm well aware of how this team has operated in the past and I'm unsure how Rosas operates this team just yet.

Lots of things are possible but you can’t give guaranteed contracts to everyone. Like every other team the league, you make a talent evaluation and make an offer based on that.

[Jedzz]

[

Lots of things are possible but you can’t give guaranteed contracts to everyone. Like every other team the league, you make a talent evaluation and make an offer based on that.

Yes but I'm not sure the offer is only contingent on the talent eval. I believe where they are drafted and if they are drafted has a lot to do with what the offer is. I think you would agree that teams do take advantage of that.

In most cases I would agree that they don't have the luxury of guaranteeing everyone, especially if unsure or just taking a flyer. But in this case, and I think the team that drafted him should be able to see what he has already proven, that it might be wise to offer slightly more respect in the offer. I'm sure he knows the reality of where he was drafted. Yet there is something to be gained from showing belief in him. From what I've seen, this player looks much more capable than our typical rooks.

[Jedzz]

His fellow teammate was drafted in the top 20 of first round. Not for his offensive skills, but his defensive skills and effort. Thybulle is a unique block and steal fiend but only averaged 9 pts and 3 rebounds a game. Top 20? Idk. Offensively I'm not sure he ever earns any respect with a 30% 3pt shot which got worse as his 4 college years went on. His assists are lower than Nowell's.

Meanwhile Nowell averaged 5 rebounds and 16pts on 50% FGs, 44% 3pts, and showed to be a clutch late game shooter in his two college seasons. I'm sure Nowell is happy for Thybulle while also being a little miffed that Thybulle is guaranteed 6.8 million over his first three years with up to 9 plus possible. We offered Nowell what?

[Worm Guts]

[

Lots of things are possible but you can’t give guaranteed contracts to everyone. Like every other team the league, you make a talent evaluation and make an offer based on that.

Yes but I'm not sure the offer is only contingent on the talent eval. I believe where they are drafted and if they are drafted has a lot to do with what the offer is. I think you would agree that teams do take advantage of that.

In most cases I would agree that they don't have the luxury of guaranteeing everyone, especially if unsure or just taking a flyer. But in this case, and I think the team that drafted him should be able to see what he has already proven, that it might be wise to offer slightly more respect in the offer. I'm sure he knows the reality of where he was drafted. Yet there is something to be gained from showing belief in him. From what I've seen, this player looks much more capable than our typical rooks.

Sometimes they do give more guaranteed money to 2nd round picks, and if you think highly of Nowell, then it's your right to say they are making a mistake, but I don't remember anyone talking about him before the draft. It's not like last year where people were talking about KBD in the 1st round and the Wolves got him in the 2nd.
Whatever they do though, I believe he will be a RFA after his first contract. Whether it's 2, 3 or 4 years the Wolves will have the chance to match if he breaks out.

[KGdaBom]

Does anyone here have an open enough mind to see a possibility that Jaylen Nowell could already be, or eventually be, a better NBA player than Culver? Or are we all just so inclined that since one was a top 6 pick and the other a second rounder that this is the only way to see their value forever?

If you see there is that possibility, how does the team make sure to not squander that possibility? How would you want the team to manage him in order to make sure Nowell is given that opportunity to show it? I don't really have that answer, because I'm well aware of how this team has operated in the past and I'm unsure how Rosas operates this team just yet.

I would guess that all of us see it as possible. I would also guess that most of us think it's unlikely. I don't know how good he is. I never heard of him until after we drafted him. Hopefully he is great. Whether we are low balling him and treating him unfair with our contract offer I don't know. Maybe Rosas is a penny pinching a$$hole. Maybe Nowell is too demanding. He was a mid second round draft pick. Unless we were geniuses making that pick odds are he will never amount to anything in the NBA. I'm hopeful that we get him signed and he proves any and all doubters wrong.
Nice clip. He looks good in highlights. However, they did repeat a couple of the same plays multiple times.

[Killboard]

Does anyone here have an open enough mind to see a possibility that Jaylen Nowell could already be, or eventually be, a better NBA player than Culver? Or are we all just so inclined that since one was a top 6 pick and the other a second rounder that this is the only way to see their value forever?

If you see there is that possibility, how does the team make sure to not squander that possibility? How would you want the team to manage him in order to make sure Nowell is given that opportunity to show it? I don't really have that answer, because I'm well aware of how this team has operated in the past and I'm unsure how Rosas operates this team just yet.

Open mind? Sure, why not.

Likely? Not, not at all. Both are young sophmores that played in small schools. One was the offensive hub of his team, that made the 1st final four appearance. Posted better per36 stats in every single category, it bigger and longer, had a higher usage, more impact for his team and better 3pt and FT ratios. The other one is a more efficient shooter and some months younger.

Based on their college careers, both start from different points. One was saw for many draft experts as a top3 talent, the other was passed on by 30 teams, and 12 teams passed on him twice. That alone means that Culver will have a longer leash going into the league. Nowell will have to work for a roster spot, then push his way into the rotation and prove to be playable sooner than later.

[minimus]

I expect Nowell to be our less erratic version of Scary Terry. Saying it I would like to sign him to Reid type of deal. I just feel like he can be a steal of the draft.

[Killboard]

[

Lots of things are possible but you can’t give guaranteed contracts to everyone. Like every other team the league, you make a talent evaluation and make an offer based on that.

Yes but I'm not sure the offer is only contingent on the talent eval. I believe where they are drafted and if they are drafted has a lot to do with what the offer is. I think you would agree that teams do take advantage of that.

In most cases I would agree that they don't have the luxury of guaranteeing everyone, especially if unsure or just taking a flyer. But in this case, and I think the team that drafted him should be able to see what he has already proven, that it might be wise to offer slightly more respect in the offer. I'm sure he knows the reality of where he was drafted. Yet there is something to be gained from showing belief in him. From what I've seen, this player looks much more capable than our typical rooks.

The Wolves are using his leverage to get a Hinkie Special, which involves the team only offering several years of control on his 2nd round/undrafted player on a dirty chip contract. Those guys have very little leverage to not sign. But it seems like the wolves are trying to be too ambitious (maybe for the awul financial situtation they inherited) and should guarantee at least a 2nd year. This are the inmediate picks before Nowell that already signed deals:


38th pick Daniel Gafford (2 guaranteed years+2 unguaranteed)
39th pick Alen Smailagic: (2 guaranteed years+1 unguaranteed)
40th pick Justin James: (2 guaranteed years+1 unguaranteed)
41th pick Admiral Schofield: (2 guaranteed years+1 unguaranteed)
43th pick Jaylen Nowell...



Reportedly offered 1 guaranteed+3 unguaranteed (same than Naz)
Reportedly looking for 2 guaranteed years+1 unguaranteed (like KBD signed last season)
Likely the wolves counter offered something like Gafford got: 2 guaranteed+2 unguaranteed.

This gives more guaranteed money to Nowell, but 4 years without a market price contract, for which he could be thinking about it.

Still, is not like he has a ton of leverage. From the 49th pick to the 57th pick, 7 players signed only for 2 way contracts (which is a lot worse than a 1 guaranteed deal).

Our new players (except Layman) are on 1 year deals for which they cant be considered assets, for which getting Naz and Nowell on convenient long term deals could make a difference in a trade scenario.

[KGdaBom]

[

Lots of things are possible but you can’t give guaranteed contracts to everyone. Like every other team the league, you make a talent evaluation and make an offer based on that.

Yes but I'm not sure the offer is only contingent on the talent eval. I believe where they are drafted and if they are drafted has a lot to do with what the offer is. I think you would agree that teams do take advantage of that.

In most cases I would agree that they don't have the luxury of guaranteeing everyone, especially if unsure or just taking a flyer. But in this case, and I think the team that drafted him should be able to see what he has already proven, that it might be wise to offer slightly more respect in the offer. I'm sure he knows the reality of where he was drafted. Yet there is something to be gained from showing belief in him. From what I've seen, this player looks much more capable than our typical rooks.

The Wolves are using his leverage to get a Hinkie Special, which involves the team only offering several years of control on his 2nd round/undrafted player on a dirty chip contract. Those guys have very little leverage to not sign. But it seems like the wolves are trying to be too ambitious (maybe for the awul financial situtation they inherited) and should guarantee at least a 2nd year. This are the inmediate picks before Nowell that already signed deals:


38th pick Daniel Gafford (2 guaranteed years+2 unguaranteed)
39th pick Alen Smailagic: (2 guaranteed years+1 unguaranteed)
40th pick Justin James: (2 guaranteed years+1 unguaranteed)
41th pick Admiral Schofield: (2 guaranteed years+1 unguaranteed)
43th pick Jaylen Nowell...



Reportedly offered 1 guaranteed+3 unguaranteed (same than Naz)
Reportedly looking for 2 guaranteed years+1 unguaranteed (like KBD signed last season)
Likely the wolves counter offered something like Gafford got: 2 guaranteed+2 unguaranteed.

This gives more guaranteed money to Nowell, but 4 years without a market price contract, for which he could be thinking about it.

Still, is not like he has a ton of leverage. From the 49th pick to the 57th pick, 7 players signed only for 2 way contracts (which is a lot worse than a 1 guaranteed deal).

Our new players (except Layman) are on 1 year deals for which they cant be considered assets, for which getting Naz and Nowell on convenient long term deals could make a difference in a trade scenario.

Thanks for the research. Sounds like both parties have defensible positions. Hopefully a compromise can be reached. I think Nowell at least has to accept a 2+2.

[mplsfonz23]

I get what Jezz is saying.

His time with the Wolves is already starting out rocky. If a year from now he doesn't show us much, it going to be forgotten, and we both move on. But, if he turns out to be a player in our rotation, he may remember the treatment and the one year deal and bolt for someone who believe he's worth a 4 year investment. I mean, where is the harm in giving him a second year? Why waste a second round pick on the guy then lowball him?

I have a feeling this bites us in the ass. (At some point)

[Killboard]

I get what Jezz is saying.

His time with the Wolves is already starting out rocky. If a year from now he doesn't show us much, it going to be forgotten, and we both move on. But, if he turns out to be a player in our rotation, he may remember the treatment and the one year deal and bolt for someone who believe he's worth a 4 year investment. I mean, where is the harm in giving him a second year? Why waste a second round pick on the guy then lowball him?

I have a feeling this bites us in the ass. (At some point)

I don't think he issue is the 2nd guaranteed year, but the 4 years of control the Wolves would have. I say this because a 2nd guaranteed deal only takes 600k of cap space, since a empty roster charge is 900k. It's likely the wolves offered 2+2 and the total amount of money doesn't convince Nowell.

[Worm Guts]

I get what Jezz is saying.

His time with the Wolves is already starting out rocky. If a year from now he doesn't show us much, it going to be forgotten, and we both move on. But, if he turns out to be a player in our rotation, he may remember the treatment and the one year deal and bolt for someone who believe he's worth a 4 year investment. I mean, where is the harm in giving him a second year? Why waste a second round pick on the guy then lowball him?

I have a feeling this bites us in the ass. (At some point)

I don't think he issue is the 2nd guaranteed year, but the 4 years of control the Wolves would have. I say this because a 2nd guaranteed deal only takes 600k of cap space, since a empty roster charge is 900k. It's likely the wolves offered 2+2 and the total amount of money doesn't convince Nowell.

Well, I think it's both, and I think the premise here is that the Wolves didn't offer him the 2nd year guaranteed. Ultimately it shouldn't matter though, since I believe he is a RFA after his first contract. If we want him, he's probably under our control for 5,6,7 seasons and by that time this contract probably won't be a consideration into his decision.

[Jedzz]

Does anyone here have an open enough mind to see a possibility that Jaylen Nowell could already be, or eventually be, a better NBA player than Culver? Or are we all just so inclined that since one was a top 6 pick and the other a second rounder that this is the only way to see their value forever?

If you see there is that possibility, how does the team make sure to not squander that possibility? How would you want the team to manage him in order to make sure Nowell is given that opportunity to show it? I don't really have that answer, because I'm well aware of how this team has operated in the past and I'm unsure how Rosas operates this team just yet.

I would guess that all of us see it as possible. I would also guess that most of us think it's unlikely. I don't know how good he is. I never heard of him until after we drafted him. Hopefully he is great. Whether we are low balling him and treating him unfair with our contract offer I don't know. Maybe Rosas is a penny pinching a$$hole. Maybe Nowell is too demanding. He was a mid second round draft pick. Unless we were geniuses making that pick odds are he will never amount to anything in the NBA. I'm hopeful that we get him signed and he proves any and all doubters wrong.
Nice clip. He looks good in highlights. However, they did repeat a couple of the same plays multiple times.

It's not a highlights from a season clip. It's just one game, of which there are a number of games available if you go look. Might give you a slightly better idea about him than just allowing the media and draft process force feed how you feel about these players. You default to a preconceived notion of "unlikely". You specifically might be a good example of someone that puts a lot of stock into where someone was drafted, ruling basically all future thoughts on these players. You aren't alone in that. In a later post, I showed how his teammate who is significantly less effective offensively was drafted #20 overall. Same team, same competition. Philly drafted that teammate because they need defense. We need someone that can really shoot. We drafted what I think is a good choice. If we don't now bury him in Gleague for 3 seasons, lowball his pay and screw this all up by making him wish we never drafted him.

I go over the the Culver thread today and see a single possession clip of Culver shared there of him driving the basket mostly uncontested. But he did it with authority so I see a few posters get excited over it. This one game had 3 to 4 of the same from Nowell, plus 3s, plus examples of handles and sidestepping footwork that are pretty smooth. Aye, but he's a second round pick so the gods have spoken.

[Jedzz]

I expect Nowell to be our less erratic version of Scary Terry. Saying it I would like to sign him to Reid type of deal. I just feel like he can be a steal of the draft.

Naz was undrafted. They might see something more in Reid that got them to offer at least 1 guaranteed year. But they didn't have to. In fact unless I heard wrong I think they first offered him a two-way, then canceled that and offered the 1+3.

Nowell was actually drafted by us. Now I see more in him than a 2nd round pick. Maybe they don't, or maybe they are just hardlining carbon copy 1 year deals for these new additions sans Culver. I think it could be a mistake to lowball someone that might have what it takes to be really useful to this team.

Right now he's possibly a more consistent shooter than Okogie. Definitely less flighty. I've heard he does play defense, and at least haven't heard it's a weakness of his anywhere. He has good enough size. He's not a scrawny undeveloped player. I hope they can handle this right.