The Malik Beasley Thread

[KGdaBom]

To match 15-18 he can't be just a spot up shooter with sligthly below average defense. He needs to create for himself and get to the rim. I suppose we will find that in the next 30 games.

I'm with you Killboard. People are getting carried away on the Beasley situation. Maybe over the rest of the year he can demonstrate himself worthy of a 15 Million a year contract, but he would have to show me some actual all around game. Not just a guy who can score a lot for a bad team.

[jpatrick]

To match 15-18 he can't be just a spot up shooter with sligthly below average defense. He needs to create for himself and get to the rim. I suppose we will find that in the next 30 games.

I'm with you Killboard. People are getting carried away on the Beasley situation. Maybe over the rest of the year he can demonstrate himself worthy of a 15 Million a year contract, but he would have to show me some actual all around game. Not just a guy who can score a lot for a bad team.

Yup. This. Unless he really blows up down the stretch, I think Rosas puts the screws to him in RFA and offers something around 10m/yr and tells him if he wants more, go find an offer on the market.

VERY few teams have space this offseason, I don’t think that offer is out there. He may end up consider taking the qualifying offer.

[Neeva]

No way beas will deserve to make more than Zach Lavine next season. I doubt Atlanta will offer him anything more than 15 mil per year. They want Anthony Edwards as their long term SG anyway.

[jpatrick]

Is Atlanta rumored to be after Beasley? They already have Hunter, Reddish, and Huerter. Reddish actually has been shooting well of late after a rough beginning. I can’t see them wanting to dump another 10-15m/yr into a wing. Maybe Edwards in the draft, as he’s local and has great physical tools, but not Beasley.

[Jedzz]

To match 15-18 he can't be just a spot up shooter with sligthly below average defense. He needs to create for himself and get to the rim. I suppose we will find that in the next 30 games.

I'm with you Killboard. People are getting carried away on the Beasley situation. Maybe over the rest of the year he can demonstrate himself worthy of a 15 Million a year contract, but he would have to show me some actual all around game. Not just a guy who can score a lot for a bad team.

If he continues to shoot as he has here for the rest of the season he will have shown himself off at an insane level shooting wise as a starter. Just spot up guy or not. This will get paid for. His numbers have been insane really. There just isn't enough guys who can do it at that high a level.

KGdaBom, you were one of those saying there was more to his game, driving the basket and such early in another discussion on him. It's there where I need to see refinement of skill, finishing at the net, over the remaining games. If he does show that and any semblence of defense at all, along with this level of hitting 3s, forget it. They are going to ask for the farm and deserve it.

[minimus]

How much would pay for Alex Abrines or Gary Trent JR?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=24&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=fg3a_per_poss&c1comp=gt&c1val=8&c2stat=fg3_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=.380&c3stat=trb_per_poss&c3comp=gt&c3val=4&c4stat=stl_per_poss&c4comp=gt&c4val=1.4&c5stat=mp&c5comp=gt&order_by=ws

I mean, Malik is likely better than those overall, but, how much?

I see Malik as same level of shooter as Redick. He is not there as scorer yet, but as shooter he is a sure thing. He has compact, quick release, he rarely is out of the balance when he is shooting. When I saw him playing first three games I was thinking: when last time MIN had someone who can play catch and shoot shooter role so perfectly? LaVine? We will pay him because a solid shooter is our biggest issue by far. I'd offer him 60mil/4yrs in a heartbeat.

Redick is one of the best shooters in NBA history. No way is Malik on his level. Hopefully he can be a better overall player, but as a shooter he has a very long way to go to be mentioned with Redick.

I should clarify that I mean same level shooter potential. And given other signs he is a true shooter, i.e. a sure thing for me. Redick has 13 yrs of NBA experience and still playing on high level. And this is incredible. I believe that with some luck Malik can make the same path. I never seen someone in MIN uniform who has same killer mentality as Malik. LaVine showed some signs/swag in MIN as well, but we kind of saw him growing over years. Beasley is someone who came here ready to fight. That is a big difference to me.

[Klomp]

Beasley has been a bit like Gorgui in that he plays better the more minutes he plays.

In 18 starts last year (averaging 31 mpg), he averaged just under 16 ppg and shot 50% from 3-point range (on 6 attempts per game). Obviously that percentage won't hold, but remember he's practically doubled that volume in his 3 games here (11 attempts per game). Lower efficiency at 42%, but that's still crazy good at that volume.

10 players averaging eight 3PApg this season. Two of them are shooting 40%. Neither of them are guards (Davis Bertans, Duncan Robinson). The high-water mark for guards on crazy volume this season seems to be 39%: Lillard, Hield, Kemba (throw in LaVine, VanVleet, McCollum if you lower the threshold to seven 3PApg). Also keep in mind JJ Redick only has one season where he averaged over seven 3PApg (2018-19, 39.7%).

Beasley is putting up these types of shooting numbers at 23 years old. That youth combined with that type of shooting potential when he gets an opportunity, you're dreaming if you think he'll settle for $10 million in this current NBA landscape that is desperate for shooting.

[jpatrick]

There are five teams with space. It’s possible but I don’t know if any of these five would give a big offer to a RFA, especially one that has had a pretty limited NBA role before coming to us.

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[Klomp]

What team with cap space is giving him 15m per year? Or do people think he’s take the qualifying offer?

People need to understand that it's not just bidding against other teams. You also have to present a contract offer that Beasley will agree to sign.

Let's say you see a used car for sale. The guy wants $5,000 minimum. Sure you can tell him that your $3,500 is still more than the $3,000 anyone else has offered him, but that doesn't change the fact that he's still asking for $5,000. HE is the one you are bidding with, not the other offers.

Beasley has turned down $10 million/year. This isn't a case like Shabazz Muhammad, where he showed limited progression between the time he turned down the extension and when he entered free agency. Beasley appears to be thriving as a 23-year old in a greater role than the role he had when he turned down $10 million. I just don't see a way that's where his market settles, unless it's a case where a team like say the Lakers signed him for the MLE and gives him both a starting job AND a chance to play for a title contender. But that same Lakers team gave a 32-year old Danny Green $15 million to play that role.

[KGdaBom]

To match 15-18 he can't be just a spot up shooter with sligthly below average defense. He needs to create for himself and get to the rim. I suppose we will find that in the next 30 games.

I'm with you Killboard. People are getting carried away on the Beasley situation. Maybe over the rest of the year he can demonstrate himself worthy of a 15 Million a year contract, but he would have to show me some actual all around game. Not just a guy who can score a lot for a bad team.

If he continues to shoot as he has here for the rest of the season he will have shown himself off at an insane level shooting wise as a starter. Just spot up guy or not. This will get paid for. His numbers have been insane really. There just isn't enough guys who can do it at that high a level.

KGdaBom, you were one of those saying there was more to his game, driving the basket and such early in another discussion on him. It's there where I need to see refinement of skill, finishing at the net, over the remaining games. If he does show that and any semblence of defense at all, along with this level of hitting 3s, forget it. They are going to ask for the farm and deserve it.

Beasley has had a 3 game run with the Wolves scoring a decent amount of points and one game with a ridiculous 7 3s. He hasn't come close to demonstrating to me that he is worth a big contract. Not saying he can't do that over the rest of the season, but I'm in very much wait and see mode. Everything I have heard about him coming over is that he was quite good at driving the rim. I'm waiting to see him demonstrate that to be true. People are IMO way overreacting to a reasonably hot 3 game stretch.

[Klomp]

Beasley has had a 3 game run with the Wolves scoring a decent amount of points and one game with a ridiculous 7 3s. He hasn't come close to demonstrating to me that he is worth a big contract. Not saying he can't do that over the rest of the season, but I'm in very much wait and see mode. Everything I have heard about him coming over is that he was quite good at driving the rim. I'm waiting to see him demonstrate that to be true. People are IMO way overreacting to a reasonably hot 3 game stretch.

He's shooting 42% on 3-pointers. That's not really outrageous for a very good 3-point shooter. If he was shooting 60% on 3s, then yeah I think you'd have a case that this is an unsustainable hot streak.

[KGdaBom]

Beasley has been a bit like Gorgui in that he plays better the more minutes he plays.

In 18 starts last year (averaging 31 mpg), he averaged just under 16 ppg and shot 50% from 3-point range (on 6 attempts per game). Obviously that percentage won't hold, but remember he's practically doubled that volume in his 3 games here (11 attempts per game). Lower efficiency at 42%, but that's still crazy good at that volume.

10 players averaging eight 3PApg this season. Two of them are shooting 40%. Neither of them are guards (Davis Bertans, Duncan Robinson). The high-water mark for guards on crazy volume this season seems to be 39%: Lillard, Hield, Kemba (throw in LaVine, VanVleet, McCollum if you lower the threshold to seven 3PApg). Also keep in mind JJ Redick only has one season where he averaged over seven 3PApg (2018-19, 39.7%).

Beasley is putting up these types of shooting numbers at 23 years old. That youth combined with that type of shooting potential when he gets an opportunity, you're dreaming if you think he'll settle for $10 million in this current NBA landscape that is desperate for shooting.

If he maintains 42% on threes at 8 or more per game and isn't a total sieve on D I will be the first in line to say pay the man. However, we don't need to bid against ourselves for his services. If he's great the rest of the season not just scoring, but scoring efficiently and playing D we can offer him 15 mill a year. If he is only decent the rest of the year 10 million a year is fair. If those numbers aren't acceptable to him he can accept his best offer and we can match if we feel like it. Denver who should know him far better than we did wasn't willing to pay him more than $10 million a year and gave up his rights along with Hernangomez and Vanderbilt for a late first round draft pick. I'm hopeful about Beasley, but very far from convinced that he is anything special.

[Calinks]

He's gonna get paid. That was my biggest worry with the deal, if he looks good in this system (which I think most good shooters will) he will get paid this summer. It's just been three games but I am pretty confident he will be a 18PPG or better scorer on this team for the rest of the season.

If his percentages remain high, a team will pay him. He's a 23 year elite shooting 2 guard. They are not easy to get, particularly ones as versatile as him, not that Beasely is very versatile but the 2 guard is a thin position IMO, and the little bit of driving and energy he brings gives him more value.

Think about it, there are not a lot of great SG's in the NBA. Beasley could crack top 15-10 in these last 30 games on numbers. That's valuable at 23 years old. Some team will be willing to give him a nice deal.

[jpatrick]

If no team gives him an offer acceptable to him, he can choose to sign the qualifying offer. However, most players that have not had a big payday, will go down that route.

Plus, by taking the QO, he’d only make 3.8m next year instead of the 10m if he signed a multi year deal. Hard to make up that money on a future contract unless he had a big year.

[KGdaBom]

He's gonna get paid. That was my biggest worry with the deal, if he looks good in this system (which I think most good shooters will) he will get paid this summer. It's just been three games but I am pretty confident he will be a 18PPG or better scorer on this team for the rest of the season.

If his percentages remain high, a team will pay him. He's a 23 year elite shooting 2 guard. They are not easy to get, particularly ones as versatile as him, not that Beasely is very versatile but the 2 guard is a thin position IMO, and the little bit of driving and energy he brings gives him more value.

Think about it, there are not a lot of great SG's in the NBA. Beasley could crack top 15-10 in these last 30 games on numbers. That's valuable at 23 years old. Some team will be willing to give him a nice deal.

Why didn't Denver see him as an ELITE SG. They didn't offer one penny over $10 million and they were willing to let him go for chump change. They're the team that should know him best. Maybe they were just stupid. I'm hopeful, but he hasn't shown me anything yet. If he averages 18 PPG that doesn't impress me. Lots of mediocre players have averaged 18 or more on bad teams. He has to show me game before I would be OK with 15 million or more. Of course I have no say so in the matter. Best case scenario is he cools off the rest of the season. We sign him to a reasonable 4X$10 million contract and then he rocks out for the rest of the deal, we win the title with Malik Beasley finals MVP.

[Klomp]

He's gonna get paid. That was my biggest worry with the deal, if he looks good in this system (which I think most good shooters will) he will get paid this summer. It's just been three games but I am pretty confident he will be a 18PPG or better scorer on this team for the rest of the season.

If his percentages remain high, a team will pay him. He's a 23 year elite shooting 2 guard. They are not easy to get, particularly ones as versatile as him, not that Beasely is very versatile but the 2 guard is a thin position IMO, and the little bit of driving and energy he brings gives him more value.

Think about it, there are not a lot of great SG's in the NBA. Beasley could crack top 15-10 in these last 30 games on numbers. That's valuable at 23 years old. Some team will be willing to give him a nice deal.

Honestly though, this was the best way to do it. With only 30 games left, there might not be the types of offers for him there could be had he gotten an opportunity like this before the season or even earlier than that. Had that happened, we may be talking contracts in the LaVine to Hield range.

[KGdaBom]

If no team gives him an offer acceptable to him, he can choose to sign the qualifying offer. However, most players that have not had a big payday, will go down that route.

Plus, by taking the QO, he’d only make 3.8m next year instead of the 10m if he signed a multi year deal. Hard to make up that money on a future contract unless he had a big year.

I think you meant will NOT go down that route.

[Klomp]

Why didn't Denver see him as an ELITE SG. They didn't offer one penny over $10 million and they were willing to let him go for chump change. They're the team that should know him best. Maybe they were just stupid. I'm hopeful, but he hasn't shown me anything yet. If he averages 18 PPG that doesn't impress me. Lots of mediocre players have averaged 18 or more on bad teams. He has to show me game before I would be OK with 15 million or more. Of course I have no say so in the matter. Best case scenario is he cools off the rest of the season. We sign him to a reasonable 4X$10 million contract and then he rocks out for the rest of the deal.

Denver never thought he wasn't good enough. For them, it was about if he had enough opportunity. He was playing behind guys already locked into big money deals, and the team is approaching the luxury tax. They likely would've lost him for nothing (Juancho too) had they not traded him, so they got what they could.

[KGdaBom]

I see the overreaction to a good start for Beasley very similar to when people here were acting like Wiggins was as good as or better than Beal. I'm just trying to be the voice of reason.

[KGdaBom]

Why didn't Denver see him as an ELITE SG. They didn't offer one penny over $10 million and they were willing to let him go for chump change. They're the team that should know him best. Maybe they were just stupid. I'm hopeful, but he hasn't shown me anything yet. If he averages 18 PPG that doesn't impress me. Lots of mediocre players have averaged 18 or more on bad teams. He has to show me game before I would be OK with 15 million or more. Of course I have no say so in the matter. Best case scenario is he cools off the rest of the season. We sign him to a reasonable 4X$10 million contract and then he rocks out for the rest of the deal.

Denver never thought he wasn't good enough. For them, it was about if he had enough opportunity. He was playing behind guys already locked into big money deals, and the team is approaching the luxury tax. They likely would've lost him for nothing (Juancho too) had they not traded him, so they got what they could.

If they really thought he was all that and a bag of chips they would have figured out a way to keep him. They clearly didn't think that. Are we particular geniuses to recognize the greatness? Why didn't other teams come calling with a better offer than we did? I like Beasley. I'm just trying to keep expectations to a rational level.