Gersson Rosas - In or Out?!

[Biff Cooper]

Some pretty harsh reviews of Rosas. I was one of his biggest critics before the season began, in that I thought he spent too many assets without having had the core players have any success together on the court, thus leaving him no room for adding players to fill in holes in the roster. This opinion has not changed. I also thought that he was too tied into this playing 1 big with one PG and 3 wings and that was the only way we could think of playing.

The Good. I will say that we usually seem like the more talented team when I watch games this season. I have not been able to say that in years past. When Towns has been able to play, he has improved defense. Beasley has been very solid. Ant has looked very good when he plays within the flow of the offense. MacDaniels has looked like a gem of a late round pick. Jordan McLaughlin continues to look good. Reid looks serviceable. Vanderbilt has looked good at times. With the exception of maybe 3 games, I've thought we played pretty hard and gave good effort.

The Bad. The Rubio trade has been a disaster thus far. The Juancho signing looks like a disaster. Our team health and availability of our players has been a disaster thus far. Saunders end of game managing were awful. Okogie's offense has been dreadful. Culver has been unhealthy and mostly bad. Ant is taking far too many shots outside the offense. We have too many bodies at the same positions.

The TBD. The Russell trade looks very bad right now, but he does have some offensive skills that I'd like to see more of with a good coach at the helm before passing absolute judgement. Finch has a lot of work ahead of him to get us playing well and further develop our talent.

I wouldn't feel awful to see Rosas go, but if I were in charge, I would probably be giving the team more time to get healthy and play under the new coach before canning him.

[Worm Guts]

The Good. I will say that we usually seem like the more talented team when I watch games this season.

I have a hard time with this one. I only watch about half the games, so maybe I'm wrong, but I definitely haven't felt this way.

[shrink]

There is lots of speculation out there that Rosas didn’t sign LaMelo because he traded for DLo. If true, which would you rather have?

LaMelo, Wiggins, 2021 MIN 1st (top 3 protected)

Or

Ant, DLo?

Russell will have to show a lot more on both sides of the ball to justify this trade, but right now, it looks like Rosas’ big move could bury this franchise.

[Biff Cooper]

The Good. I will say that we usually seem like the more talented team when I watch games this season.

I have a hard time with this one. I only watch about half the games, so maybe I'm wrong, but I definitely haven't felt this way.

I figured I might get some kickback on that comment. I've missed a hand full of games this year too, so it isn't a lock of a statement. It definitely hasn't been the case since Finch took over, Beasley got suspended, and the effort level was questionable. The 13 games before it were all single digit games though, and I felt we were more talented than our opponents in probably 10 of those games. It likely was a weak stretch in the schedule though, so might be a stretch to extrapolate it to half over the entire season.

[Baseline81]

There is lots of speculation out there that Rosas didn’t sign LaMelo because he traded for DLo. If true, which would you rather have?

LaMelo, Wiggins, 2021 MIN 1st (top 3 protected)

Or

Ant, DLo?

Russell will have to show a lot more on both sides of the ball to justify this trade, but right now, it looks like Rosas’ big move could bury this franchise.

I can't imagine anyone saying he or she would rather have Edwards and Russell with a straight face.

What I keep coming back to is why would Rosas only make the protection top-3, especially with the lottery rules the way they are. Would Golden State have turned away from the trade if the pick was instead top-4 or even 5 protected for the upcoming draft?

[Crazy-Canuck]

There is lots of speculation out there that Rosas didn’t sign LaMelo because he traded for DLo. If true, which would you rather have?

LaMelo, Wiggins, 2021 MIN 1st (top 3 protected)

Or

Ant, DLo?

Russell will have to show a lot more on both sides of the ball to justify this trade, but right now, it looks like Rosas’ big move could bury this franchise.

I can't imagine anyone saying he or she would rather have Edwards and Russell with a straight face.

What I keep coming back to is why would Rosas only make the protection top-3, especially with the lottery rules the way they are. Would Golden State have turned away from the trade if the pick was instead top-4 or even 5 protected for the upcoming draft?

Im guessing gsw wanted the pick totally unprotected, but got "negotiated" down to top 3 or rolled over to unprotected the following year.

[shrink]

There is lots of speculation out there that Rosas didn’t sign LaMelo because he traded for DLo. If true, which would you rather have?

LaMelo, Wiggins, 2021 MIN 1st (top 3 protected)

Or

Ant, DLo?

Russell will have to show a lot more on both sides of the ball to justify this trade, but right now, it looks like Rosas’ big move could bury this franchise.

I can't imagine anyone saying he or she would rather have Edwards and Russell with a straight face.

I can imagine one guy.

[Klomp]

There is lots of speculation out there that Rosas didn’t sign LaMelo because he traded for DLo. If true, which would you rather have?

LaMelo, Wiggins, 2021 MIN 1st (top 3 protected)

Or

Ant, DLo?

Russell will have to show a lot more on both sides of the ball to justify this trade, but right now, it looks like Rosas’ big move could bury this franchise.

Early returns aren't great. Clearly. But that doesn't mean it is destined to end that way.

I know everyone is passionate about their fandom, but the emotionally-charged rhetoric isn't really necessary. This move probably won't bury the franchise.

[AbeVigodaLive]

There is lots of speculation out there that Rosas didn’t sign LaMelo because he traded for DLo. If true, which would you rather have?

LaMelo, Wiggins, 2021 MIN 1st (top 3 protected)

Or

Ant, DLo?

Russell will have to show a lot more on both sides of the ball to justify this trade, but right now, it looks like Rosas’ big move could bury this franchise.

Early returns aren't great. Clearly. But that doesn't mean it is destined to end that way.

I know everyone is passionate about their fandom, but the emotionally-charged rhetoric isn't really necessary. This move probably won't bury the franchise.

[Jedzz]

There is lots of speculation out there that Rosas didn’t sign LaMelo because he traded for DLo. If true, which would you rather have?

LaMelo, Wiggins, 2021 MIN 1st (top 3 protected)

Or

Ant, DLo?

Russell will have to show a lot more on both sides of the ball to justify this trade, but right now, it looks like Rosas’ big move could bury this franchise.

Early returns aren't great. Clearly. But that doesn't mean it is destined to end that way.

I know everyone is passionate about their fandom, but the emotionally-charged rhetoric isn't really necessary. This move probably won't bury the franchise.

emotionally-charged rhetoric
well chosen words

It doesn't really matter. Rosas hasn't tried to build a team for a season yet anyway. He's just been asset collecting for future moves without understanding how much value he's been destroying in the recent ones this year. It's a failure from moves this offseason that he might end up regretting if he can't make his planned or necessary moves yet at this deadline. We'll see. I condemn him for wasting two seasons already. That's emotionally charged but I don't think it's rhetoric. I gave him the first season to evaluate and flip his roster twice. It should have been down to business time and yet hes was still packing his face like a chipmunk getting ready for a long winter. Winter is over now. What comes out the other end this month?

[shrink]

There is lots of speculation out there that Rosas didn’t sign LaMelo because he traded for DLo. If true, which would you rather have?

LaMelo, Wiggins, 2021 MIN 1st (top 3 protected)

Or

Ant, DLo?

Russell will have to show a lot more on both sides of the ball to justify this trade, but right now, it looks like Rosas’ big move could bury this franchise.

Early returns aren't great. Clearly. But that doesn't mean it is destined to end that way.

I know everyone is passionate about their fandom, but the emotionally-charged rhetoric isn't really necessary. This move probably won't bury the franchise.

Do you prefer, “two years away from being two years away?”

I feel like at 7-29, we’re buried right now. Is Russell finally getting paired with KAT going to dig us up and resurface as a competitive team? I doubt it. And the salary we have locked into him, and the loss of a lottery pick, compound the problems of our future.

I think the team gets blown up, but not until the next trade deadline.

[Klomp]

There is lots of speculation out there that Rosas didn’t sign LaMelo because he traded for DLo. If true, which would you rather have?

LaMelo, Wiggins, 2021 MIN 1st (top 3 protected)

Or

Ant, DLo?

Russell will have to show a lot more on both sides of the ball to justify this trade, but right now, it looks like Rosas’ big move could bury this franchise.

Early returns aren't great. Clearly. But that doesn't mean it is destined to end that way.

I know everyone is passionate about their fandom, but the emotionally-charged rhetoric isn't really necessary. This move probably won't bury the franchise.

Do you prefer, “two years away from being two years away?”

I feel like at 7-29, we’re buried right now. Is Russell finally getting paired with KAT going to dig us up and resurface as a competitive team? I doubt it. And the salary we have locked into him, and the loss of a lottery pick, compound the problems of our future.

I think the team gets blown up, but not until the next trade deadline.

We are at the all-star break of their rookie seasons.

At the 2009-10 all-star break, Sacramento rookie guard Tyreke Evans was averaging 20/5/5 on an 18-win team while Golden State rookie guard Stephen Curry was averaging 15/4/5 on a 14-win team. I'm sure Sacramento fans were all glad they made the right pick on draft night.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Early returns aren't great. Clearly. But that doesn't mean it is destined to end that way.

I know everyone is passionate about their fandom, but the emotionally-charged rhetoric isn't really necessary. This move probably won't bury the franchise.

Do you prefer, “two years away from being two years away?”

I feel like at 7-29, we’re buried right now. Is Russell finally getting paired with KAT going to dig us up and resurface as a competitive team? I doubt it. And the salary we have locked into him, and the loss of a lottery pick, compound the problems of our future.

I think the team gets blown up, but not until the next trade deadline.

We are at the all-star break of their rookie seasons.

At the 2009-10 all-star break, Sacramento rookie guard Tyreke Evans was averaging 20/5/5 on an 18-win team while Golden State rookie guard Stephen Curry was averaging 15/4/5 on a 14-win team. I'm sure Sacramento fans were all glad they made the right pick on draft night.

While there's merit in your take that it's very early to make any definitive judgements...

Both Evans and Curry were plus-players by the All Star break, with Curry showing steady progress/improvement each month. Edwards has been a negative player any way we slice it thus far. To be fair, it's a tough year for rookies... especially with all the turmoil in MN.

We should learn a lot more about Edwards after this much-needed break. Hopefully, he can show steady improvement the 2nd half of the season... and beyond.

[shrink]

I don’t think it’s fair to ask any rookie to turn around a bad team in his first season. Rookies are almost invariably bad their first year, as they adapt to the speed and size of the nba, and shed themselves of habits that worked against college opponents that have no chance now.

That said, it’s even more unfair to look for it from Anthony Edwards. He was always a project, and he had less experience than almost any of the draft choices, and therefore the most to learn. Even if he succeeded and got a ROY award for accumulating minutes and counting stats, that probably is not going to save MIN’s season this year.

[Klomp]

I don’t think it’s fair to ask any rookie to turn around a bad team in his first season. Rookies are almost invariably bad their first year, as they adapt to the speed and size of the nba, and shed themselves of habits that worked against college opponents that have no chance now.

That said, it’s even more unfair to look for it from Anthony Edwards. He was always a project, and he had less experience than almost any of the draft choices, and therefore the most to learn. Even if he succeeded and got a ROY award for accumulating minutes and counting stats, that probably is not going to save MIN’s season this year.

And Minnesota took him KNOWING he was going to take time to develop. This isn't a shock to them. The important thing is how we develop him going forward. That's why I don't think it's fair to judge based on the first half of the rookie season.

[TheZachAttack]

In regards to the discussion about the trade it's still really unfair to judge because of all of the injuries. It's fair to say that it hasn't turned out well, but the trade (and no trade) can be based on the logic that over the next 1.5 seasons they will play 4 games together.

The idea was that the Wolves would be good enough to be late lottery or just out of the lottery and that calculation looks a lot different. I still don't think it's unfair to say that a full season of Beasley/D Lo/Towns wouldn't be near that level.

D lo's hype is down because the Wolves were not winning. The Wolves weren't winning because they didn't have enough talent and D lo wasn't good enough to carry a team without a lot of talent. That's not a surprise. The calculation was always that D lo playing with spacing (Beasley) would allow him to play a step above what he played at Golden State last year. He actually has played as well as he did with Golden State last year and just below Brooklyn level (better from 3). I think the logic still holds, or there is no evidence against it yet, that consistent games with Towns wouldn't allow him to play better than what he was playing.

Wiggins has regressed. His defensive numbers are falling and at or below the Wolves. His shooting numbers are down and falling. His PPG is down. His free throws are down. He looks alright because the Warriors have Steph/Draymond and a competent coaching staff and some wings, that's all. He does the same thing on the Wolves and he has worse value than last season.

I judge a GM based on the logic. I am disappointed thus far with the outcome, but I still believe in the logic about why the trade was made and I can't see any evidence yet that shows that the logic that Rosas used and the risk calculation used was wrong. This is an extreme example, but if a trade is made understanding that there is a 5% risk of a disastrous outcome and that 95 out of 100 times it will work out well and 5% disastrous... and the trade hits that 5%... that is not a wrong move. Again, the outcome has been disastrous... but with the logic I think we are multiple standard deviations about the outcome that could have been expected if you're running simulations when trying to make a decision. That sucks... but it's not a reason to get mad at the GM. That said, there may still be other reasons to judge Rosas.

I will also add that we are in one of the worst case scenarios possible and we still have a 40% chance at the following...

Cade Cunningham/Mobley/Suggs + Edwards + D Lo

for

Lamelo + Wiggins + late lottery/mid first round pick.

You're being a hater if you don't think that a lineup with a full season and healthy D Lo, Beasley, Edwards, Cunningham, Towns and others off the bench doesn't have a great shot at being a play-in team or playoff scenario. That would be one of the youngest and most talented lineups the Wolves have ever had. You time your max contracts with a great contract in Beasley, two rookie deals, and competant back-up on cheap contracts or rookie deals like Naz/Vanderbilt/McDaniels/Nowell/McLaughlin which is perfect. That gives you the cap flexibility and young talent to make a trade to acquire another near-max player on a 3-4 year deal or another significant asset at least.

You even set yourself up to pivot if Towns/D lo don't work and rebuild around two young high ceiling wings in Edwards/Cunningham (let's say) and whatever assets you get for Towns/D lo and potentially Beasley.

I don't think there is a way to argue that the logic behind a worst case scenario (disaster scenario) being a 40% chance at that outcome above is really bad logic. It's not a sound argument. The Wolves would be positioned both now and for the future in un-arguably the best position in Wolves history.

There's an argument that the move worked out badly because it was a 1-5 percentile outcome, but you don't not make a trade because you're worried about the 1-5th percentile outcome.

[shrink]

I don’t think it’s fair to ask any rookie to turn around a bad team in his first season. Rookies are almost invariably bad their first year, as they adapt to the speed and size of the nba, and shed themselves of habits that worked against college opponents that have no chance now.

That said, it’s even more unfair to look for it from Anthony Edwards. He was always a project, and he had less experience than almost any of the draft choices, and therefore the most to learn. Even if he succeeded and got a ROY award for accumulating minutes and counting stats, that probably is not going to save MIN’s season this year.

And Minnesota took him KNOWING he was going to take time to develop. This isn't a shock to them. The important thing is how we develop him going forward. That's why I don't think it's fair to judge based on the first half of the rookie season.

I agree. I’m completely lost what you’re trying to say then.

[shrink]

I will also add that we are in one of the worst case scenarios possible and we still have a 40% chance at the following...

Cade Cunningham/Mobley/Suggs + Edwards + D Lo

for

Lamelo + Wiggins + late lottery/mid first round pick.

While these draftee’s are a possibility, they shouldn’t be included as part of the trade, because we would have had them whether we had made the trade or not. It would be like including the 2025 pick.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I don’t think it’s fair to ask any rookie to turn around a bad team in his first season. Rookies are almost invariably bad their first year, as they adapt to the speed and size of the nba, and shed themselves of habits that worked against college opponents that have no chance now.

That said, it’s even more unfair to look for it from Anthony Edwards. He was always a project, and he had less experience than almost any of the draft choices, and therefore the most to learn. Even if he succeeded and got a ROY award for accumulating minutes and counting stats, that probably is not going to save MIN’s season this year.

He definitely shouldn't have been considered a savior his first season. After all, the Wolves have TWO max guys already. That was the beauty of the pick... the Wolves didn't have to swing for the fences. But they did anyway.

Edwards was the #1 pick. And with it... comes legitimate expectations to be better than "bad." And there's not a single rookie that's been more directly involved with his team losing games than Edwards. Heck, he's one of the only players on the team (along with Culver) and in the entire league with a negative WS rating (-0.9). Heck, I believe he has the lowest in the entire league. It's only one metric... but take your pick from many others... all of them show Edwards as a negative player right now.

And that's disappointing. It doesn't mean he won't improve immeasurably. It doesn't mean he won't become an All Star or even All NBA player eventually. But halfway through his rookie season, he hasn't come close to justify his draft position. And that's all we have to go on right now.

We'll find out eventually if the calls for patience with Edwards will be justified or not. At least we're used to these sorts of things.

[Foye]

I don’t think it’s fair to ask any rookie to turn around a bad team in his first season. Rookies are almost invariably bad their first year, as they adapt to the speed and size of the nba, and shed themselves of habits that worked against college opponents that have no chance now.

That said, it’s even more unfair to look for it from Anthony Edwards. He was always a project, and he had less experience than almost any of the draft choices, and therefore the most to learn. Even if he succeeded and got a ROY award for accumulating minutes and counting stats, that probably is not going to save MIN’s season this year.

And Minnesota took him KNOWING he was going to take time to develop. This isn't a shock to them. The important thing is how we develop him going forward. That's why I don't think it's fair to judge based on the first half of the rookie season.

I agree. I’m completely lost what you’re trying to say then.

He is saying trust the process...like every Klomp post on here for years.