Post#429 » by wolves_89 » Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:41 pm
Here's a take on Wiggins with an optimistic view.
First I want to note that if there was one player on the Wolves who was hurt by hiring Thibs it was Andrew. I don't believe he responds well to yelling or Thibs in general, which caused a lack of focus/motivation. Adding Butler to the mix only made the situation worse. Not long into Butler's stint in Minnesota I suspect Wiggins had largely checked out. The second main problem was Thibs system. The offensive sets tended to clog up the lane making driving to the bucket (Wiggins primary strength) more difficult. The offense also put Andrew in the position to take long 2s frequently, which unfortunately he did. On defense, Thibs wanted his wings to go over picks which is not something Wiggins is good at and playing big minutes with poor defenders like Teague, Rose, and Saric also didn't help matters.
Now to the optimistic assessment of Wiggins. If Saunders returns the Wolves to an offensive system that opens up the lane I can see Wiggins getting back to having over 30% of his shots at the rim (like his first two seasons). Just coupling more drives with the 34-36% 3pt shooting he's demonstrated and his TS% should be back to around .540-.550 even if he kept shooting mid-range shots at a high rate. If he dropped his rate of shots between 10ft and the 3pt line by 10%, it could raise his TS% to the .560-.570 range.
Looking a ORPM, just returning to more drives with his current 3pt% should get Andrew back to around 1.50. Reducing the number of long 2s would only raise the ORPM, say to something in the 2.00 range. So basically, returning to the player Wiggins was before Thibs coupled with his current 3pt% and a bit better shot selection could leave Wiggins as a fairly good offensive player.
On the defensive side of the ball Wiggins has shown small steps towards improvement. With the Saric and Rose minutes replaced with better defenders and the Wolves using a more modern switching approach I could see Wiggins DRPM improving to something in the range of -0.75 (from -1.55 last season). Not good, but no terrible either.
In total, an offensive ORPM around 2.00 and defensive DRPM of -0.75 would result in an RPM of 1.25 which would make Wiggins something like the 25th best wing (SG and SF combined). He'd be a positive contributor with similar RPM to the Otto Porter or JJ Redick range of player last season.