ImageImageImage

Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

Moderators: Domejandro, Worm Guts, Calinks

winforlose
RealGM
Posts: 13,116
And1: 5,733
Joined: Feb 27, 2020

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#461 » by winforlose » Thu May 9, 2024 1:08 am

Klomp wrote:
winforlose wrote:
KATKlownFeet wrote:This roster looks great to me and I don't want to trade any of our rotation guys. I have no interest in Buddy Hield. I'd much rather keep KA and MM. We need to resign them. We also need to resign NAW. I like our young talent like Leonard Miller, Luka Garza, Daishen Nix, Jaylen Clark and so I'm fine with we trade at least one of this year's picks for a future pick or picks. If we do draft someone, I'd go for a raw, young lengthy international guy who most resembles Gobert and let him play overseas.


Draft and stash doesn’t always work out. Spagnolo is the latest example but far from the only one. Also, guys who you draft from overseas don’t always adjust well to the NBA, Leandro Bolmaro is a good example of that. I think the Wolves are gonna draft a big with the hope of him eventually replacing Karl. One way or another he will be traded to avoid repeater 2nd apron penalties. Rudy will probably take a pay cut to extend (security over high end value,) and Morris will be here long term while Kyle is extended and traded next year. The core of the team for the Ant window is Ant, Jaden, Naz, and NAW. We need to find players to fit around that.

Keep in mind, Tim Connelly is a big believer in drafting guys "one year early" to maximize value as he's said that for Minott, Miller, Clark. This doesn't just mean that the player will be better in a year, but could also mean he has more roster clarity in a year as well.

I truly believe that Josh Minott was drafted and signed to a Gupta special knowing in part that Kyle Anderson would be a 2024 free agent.
I think that Leonard Miller was drafted knowing that there would be financial uncertainty around the big man position this summer.
I think Jaylen Clark was drafted knowing not only that he needed a year of recovery, but also that Nickeil Alexander-Walker is set to be an unrestricted free agent a year from now.
At the time, I think Wendell Moore was drafted in part because of the contract situation involving D'Angelo Russell.

First of all, I think we'll continue to see a defensive identity at the core of the guys we bring in. As people around the team have said, this is now an identity of Timberwolves Culture. If we commit to the tax and the apron, I think we'll lean perimeter and length. And I think we'll be keeping an eye out for a point guard.


1. Drafting with an eye to the future and draft and stash are not the same thing. Playing the G with Iowa is much better for player development than playing in Europe. There are many reasons for this but my favorite 2 are, you play with future teammates (think JMAC and Naz) and you learn to play a style similar to what the big club is doing. Second, you practice with the NBA team, and develop relationships with the players and coaches of the Minnesota Timberwolves sooner. I am not saying I disagree with drafting for the future. I am saying that you need to be careful with draft and stash.

2. I am not sure that Minott or Miller will be in the rotation next year. It is notoriously difficult to implement young players into high leverage playoff contending teams. Look at Denver this year. Even with a thin bench they still don’t play Watson or Braun real minutes in the playoffs. I do think player development is important, but I also think Finch and TC are focused on winning now during this fairly specific window.

3. I don’t think we draft a PG, I think we draft a big. Bigs are safer bets because as long as they can defend and rebound you can find a role for them off the bench. PGs are a tougher gamble as they need to be able to play make, defend, shoot, and sometimes lead. I think we keep MM and sign free agent PGs during the good years, especially if Ant and NAW continue to develop as on ball guards.
vtime
Rookie
Posts: 1,224
And1: 297
Joined: May 29, 2006
Location: SAINT LOUIS, MO

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#462 » by vtime » Thu May 9, 2024 1:19 am

I do look at Miller, Minott, and Clark as the exact prototypes in size, build and skill to replicate what Naz, Jaden, and NAW bring.

In that scenario
Naz=Miller
Jaden=Minott
NAW=Clark

Wouldn’t that be something if they could provide even a fraction of that next year with Kyle and Monte walking out the door this summer?
winforlose
RealGM
Posts: 13,116
And1: 5,733
Joined: Feb 27, 2020

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#463 » by winforlose » Thu May 9, 2024 1:28 am

vtime wrote:I do look at Miller, Minott, and Clark as the exact prototypes in size, build and skill to replicate what Naz, Jaden, and NAW bring.

In that scenario
Naz=Miller
Jaden=Minott
NAW=Clark

Wouldn’t that be something if they could provide even a fraction of that next year with Kyle and Monte walking out the door this summer?


Fractions don’t win chips. I do think we need to try and find minutes for Miller and Minott, but not high leverage minutes and not playoff minutes. This next year or two are the golden years. It will be much tougher for the next two or three after the golden years. The variable in year or two is repeater tax.
BlacJacMac
Analyst
Posts: 3,714
And1: 3,406
Joined: Aug 25, 2020
       

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#464 » by BlacJacMac » Thu May 9, 2024 5:29 am

vtime wrote:I do look at Miller, Minott, and Clark as the exact prototypes in size, build and skill to replicate what Naz, Jaden, and NAW bring.

In that scenario
Naz=Miller
Jaden=Minott
NAW=Clark

Wouldn’t that be something if they could provide even a fraction of that next year with Kyle and Monte walking out the door this summer?


Fraction is the right word…
vtime
Rookie
Posts: 1,224
And1: 297
Joined: May 29, 2006
Location: SAINT LOUIS, MO

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#465 » by vtime » Thu May 9, 2024 12:04 pm

winforlose wrote:
vtime wrote:I do look at Miller, Minott, and Clark as the exact prototypes in size, build and skill to replicate what Naz, Jaden, and NAW bring.

In that scenario
Naz=Miller
Jaden=Minott
NAW=Clark

Wouldn’t that be something if they could provide even a fraction of that next year with Kyle and Monte walking out the door this summer?


Fractions don’t win chips. I do think we need to try and find minutes for Miller and Minott, but not high leverage minutes and not playoff minutes. This next year or two are the golden years. It will be much tougher for the next two or three after the golden years. The variable in year or two is repeater tax.


We only lose Kyle and a sparingly played Monte, so yes if those guys could provide a fraction of what Naz, Jaden, and NAW do that should make up for those 2 losses, especially with any internal growth from Ant, Jaden, Naz, and NAW who are all 22-25 years old.
Klomp
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 69,098
And1: 22,627
Joined: Jul 08, 2005
Contact:
   

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#466 » by Klomp » Thu May 9, 2024 6:20 pm

vtime wrote:I do look at Miller, Minott, and Clark as the exact prototypes in size, build and skill to replicate what Naz, Jaden, and NAW bring.

In that scenario
Naz=Miller
Jaden=Minott
NAW=Clark

Wouldn’t that be something if they could provide even a fraction of that next year with Kyle and Monte walking out the door this summer?

A lot of people think Miller will be the Anderson replacement, but I actually think it might be Minott. I think he's just a little bit closer to rotation caliber.
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
Klomp wrote:I'm putting the tired in retired mod at the moment
KATKlownFeet
Junior
Posts: 258
And1: 103
Joined: Jul 30, 2021
   

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#467 » by KATKlownFeet » Thu May 9, 2024 8:54 pm

We really don't know what we have in Clark but he was a stellar defender in college and if he can play d anywhere close to how NAW plays defense, I hope he gets spot rotation minutes to see if he can contribute positively. Leonard Miller is the guy with lots of upside but he is just raw, and I think he probably needs another year to mature though I hope he gets more minutes next year. Garza is already ready to step in if one of our bigs goes down. Minott really needs to improve his shooting range and play better on defense to have any hope of being in the rotation, which is probably at least another year away. I like what Nix showed in preseason and if either Morris or JMAC is gone, he should get more minutes. Otherwise, he's just injury insurance. Moore struggled in the G League and his salary escalates each year and I'm fine with moving on from him.
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 59,360
And1: 19,396
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#468 » by shrink » Thu May 9, 2024 11:04 pm

KATKlownFeet wrote:We really don't know what we have in Clark but he was a stellar defender in college and if he can play d anywhere close to how NAW plays defense, I hope he gets spot rotation minutes to see if he can contribute positively. Leonard Miller is the guy with lots of upside but he is just raw, and I think he probably needs another year to mature though I hope he gets more minutes next year.

I can’t think of a worse time to launch this unpopular take, but here ya go ..

I love NAW on an emotional level and would hate to see him be traded. As a fan, I’d like to see him be a core piece here for a long long time. However, on a GM level, he should be one of the few players Connelly should consider trading. While we have his Bird rights, how much do you think he will get paid next year, as some team’s starter? I think he’s a full MLE guy, and probably more than that. Can we even afford to make an offer that’s close? Walker needs to follow the money - he has never gotten a big paycheck. We can’t even offer an extension early since his current deal was only for two years - it would come down to him selecting our offer in Summer 2025, and he could walk for nothing.

On the other hand, NAW has maximized his trade value, even as an expiring. A trade at the February 2025 deadline could bring back a decent 1st, and maybe a couple 2nds, and it would allow us to take advantage of Connelly’s scouting background and ability to find good young players in the draft.

Truthfully, it’s miraculous that we have Naz coming off the bench, and we certainly can’t afford to also pay NAW what he’s worth and keep him on the bench. Perhaps if he (or Ant) become much better at running an offense as the de facto “starting PG,” we might be able to pay him as a starter. But even though I hate the idea, NAW trade offers will need to be considered by Connelly. Hopefully he found a 90% replacement in Jaylen (“Don’t Call me Caitlyn”) Clark.
Klomp
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 69,098
And1: 22,627
Joined: Jul 08, 2005
Contact:
   

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#469 » by Klomp » Thu May 9, 2024 11:26 pm

shrink wrote:
KATKlownFeet wrote:We really don't know what we have in Clark but he was a stellar defender in college and if he can play d anywhere close to how NAW plays defense, I hope he gets spot rotation minutes to see if he can contribute positively. Leonard Miller is the guy with lots of upside but he is just raw, and I think he probably needs another year to mature though I hope he gets more minutes next year.

I can’t think of a worse time to launch this unpopular take, but here ya go ..

I love NAW on an emotional level and would hate to see him be traded. However, on a GM level, he should be one of the few players Connelly should consider trading. While we have his Bird rights, how much do you think he will get paid next year, as some team’s starter? I think he’s a full MLE guy, and probably more than that. Can we even afford to make an offer that’s close? Walker needs to follow the money - he has never gotten a big paycheck. We can’t even offer an extension early since his current deal was only for two years - it would come down to him selecting our offer in Summer 2025, and he could walk for nothing.

On the other hand, NAW has maximized his trade value, even as an expiring. A trade at the February 2025 deadline could bring back a decent 1st, and maybe a couple 2nds, and it would allow us to take advantage of Connelly’s scouting background and ability to find good young players in the draft.

Truthfully, it’s miraculous that we have Naz coming off the bench, and we certainly can’t afford to also pay NAW what he’s worth and keep him on the bench. Perhaps if he (or Ant) become much better at running an offense as the de facto “starting PG,” we might be able to pay him as a starter. But even though I hate the idea, NAW trade offers will need to be considered by Connelly. Hopefully he found a 90% replacement in Jaylen (“Don’t Call me Caitlyn”) Clark.

This is absolutely correct, to be honest. Though I don't know if we can go through with it and pull the trigger, even though it might make the most financial sense. I do think, while he's not eligible for an "extension" per se, I think that he is the type of guy on the team who might accept a "below market value" deal on his next contract here. Like, I think he can get Bruce Brown money elsewhere, but might be willing to sign for $15-18M here. That's the only thing that would hold me back.

I would also add, if they decide a big man needs to be dealt, a $4 million NAW is a good way to boost your outgoing value without completely throwing off the outgoing salaries. So if you combined him with say someone making $40-50 million, the ability to bring back two players combining to make $45-55 million opens up your options and becomes more feasible.
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
Klomp wrote:I'm putting the tired in retired mod at the moment
TimberKat
Head Coach
Posts: 6,007
And1: 3,028
Joined: Jul 02, 2022
         

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#470 » by TimberKat » Fri May 10, 2024 1:50 am

Klomp wrote:
shrink wrote:
KATKlownFeet wrote:We really don't know what we have in Clark but he was a stellar defender in college and if he can play d anywhere close to how NAW plays defense, I hope he gets spot rotation minutes to see if he can contribute positively. Leonard Miller is the guy with lots of upside but he is just raw, and I think he probably needs another year to mature though I hope he gets more minutes next year.

I can’t think of a worse time to launch this unpopular take, but here ya go ..

I love NAW on an emotional level and would hate to see him be traded. However, on a GM level, he should be one of the few players Connelly should consider trading. While we have his Bird rights, how much do you think he will get paid next year, as some team’s starter? I think he’s a full MLE guy, and probably more than that. Can we even afford to make an offer that’s close? Walker needs to follow the money - he has never gotten a big paycheck. We can’t even offer an extension early since his current deal was only for two years - it would come down to him selecting our offer in Summer 2025, and he could walk for nothing.

On the other hand, NAW has maximized his trade value, even as an expiring. A trade at the February 2025 deadline could bring back a decent 1st, and maybe a couple 2nds, and it would allow us to take advantage of Connelly’s scouting background and ability to find good young players in the draft.

Truthfully, it’s miraculous that we have Naz coming off the bench, and we certainly can’t afford to also pay NAW what he’s worth and keep him on the bench. Perhaps if he (or Ant) become much better at running an offense as the de facto “starting PG,” we might be able to pay him as a starter. But even though I hate the idea, NAW trade offers will need to be considered by Connelly. Hopefully he found a 90% replacement in Jaylen (“Don’t Call me Caitlyn”) Clark.

This is absolutely correct, to be honest. Though I don't know if we can go through with it and pull the trigger, even though it might make the most financial sense. I do think, while he's not eligible for an "extension" per se, I think that he is the type of guy on the team who might accept a "below market value" deal on his next contract here. Like, I think he can get Bruce Brown money elsewhere, but might be willing to sign for $15-18M here. That's the only thing that would hold me back.

I would also add, if they decide a big man needs to be dealt, a $4 million NAW is a good way to boost your outgoing value without completely throwing off the outgoing salaries. So if you combined him with say someone making $40-50 million, the ability to bring back two players combining to make $45-55 million opens up your options and becomes more feasible.

I totally expect we keep everyone for another run next year (assume we get pass DEN). I am hopping we spend more for further improvement - keeping KA and Morris to make a trade later next year.
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 59,360
And1: 19,396
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#471 » by shrink » Fri May 10, 2024 3:16 am

Thanks guys. I really expected to see lots of posts saying, “Shrink you idiot! There’s no way we’d trade NAW! He’s essential!”

To be clear, NAW is one of my favorite players. When the team is chopping it up, he may be reading a book on the training table. He’s appreciative to be here, to stay in one place and have a chance to find a role. He calls Mike Conley “his brother.” He smiles when he’s suffocating Jamal Murray. I love this guy!

I just wanted to point out that if you remove the name, he is an archetype of a player that gets traded. He boosted his trade value, he can’t be extended, and the team may not be able to afford his next contract. I would prefer to get decent value for him rather than risk losing him for nothing. I should also add though that simply holding onto him to help in the 2025 playoffs may be worth the risk of losing him for nothing.

I hope he’s a Wolf for a long time. I just wanted people to be aware that he could get traded.
KATKlownFeet
Junior
Posts: 258
And1: 103
Joined: Jul 30, 2021
   

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#472 » by KATKlownFeet » Fri May 10, 2024 3:49 am

IF we don't have bird rights to resign NAW, Connelly made a blunder as we could have surely signed him to a longer deal. What is the max we can offer him in 2025 assuming we have all the same core players as we do now?
wolves_89
General Manager
Posts: 8,108
And1: 4,593
Joined: Jul 10, 2012
 

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#473 » by wolves_89 » Fri May 10, 2024 4:00 am

KATKlownFeet wrote:IF we don't have bird rights to resign NAW, Connelly made a blunder as we could have surely signed him to a longer deal. What is the max we can offer him in 2025 assuming we have all the same core players as we do now?


The Wolves have NAW's bird rights, they just can't extend him before the 2025 offseason.
winforlose
RealGM
Posts: 13,116
And1: 5,733
Joined: Feb 27, 2020

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#474 » by winforlose » Fri May 10, 2024 8:07 am

KATKlownFeet wrote:IF we don't have bird rights to resign NAW, Connelly made a blunder as we could have surely signed him to a longer deal. What is the max we can offer him in 2025 assuming we have all the same core players as we do now?


Bird rights carry over in trades. NAW was always traded and thus we have them. The link below will show it.


https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/transactions/_/id/31574/nickeil-alexander-walker
User avatar
andyhop
Analyst
Posts: 3,628
And1: 1,320
Joined: May 08, 2007
   

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#475 » by andyhop » Fri May 10, 2024 9:27 am

shrink wrote: I should also add though that simply holding onto him to help in the 2025 playoffs may be worth the risk of losing him for nothing.



I think thats why he won't be traded , the Wolves are probably on a very short term window to win with this core of players before they have to move players to save money so I expect them to go as all in as finances allow next season and then it will be hard decision time.
"Football is not a matter of life and death...it's much more important than that."- Bill Shankley
younggunsmn
Head Coach
Posts: 6,767
And1: 2,595
Joined: May 28, 2007
Location: Hiding from the thought police.

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#476 » by younggunsmn » Fri May 10, 2024 10:08 am

vtime wrote:I do look at Miller, Minott, and Clark as the exact prototypes in size, build and skill to replicate what Naz, Jaden, and NAW bring.

In that scenario
Naz=Miller
Jaden=Minott
NAW=Clark

Wouldn’t that be something if they could provide even a fraction of that next year with Kyle and Monte walking out the door this summer?


Miller, Minott, and Clark are the Dollar General versions of those 3 players.
Finch would not trust any one of them AT ALL.

There's a chance Minott is even cut before July 1st so we can give his roster spot to a vet minimum ring chaser, since his salary is not guaranteed for next year like Moore's is.

Those 3 guys have a long, long, long way to go to be useful rotation pieces on a contending team.

As awesome as NAW is defensively, if he couldn't shoot 3's he would be Josh Okogie and out of the playoff rotation.
That's the modern game.
Jaylen Clark was about as awful a shooter as there was among guards in his draft class.

FWIW, I think there is a small chance if we win a title or get close that Kyle and or Monte come back for the vet min.
Both have taken fairly substantial hits in value this year with Kyle's shot disappearing and Monte being a walking injury.
Kyle more likely than Monte.

Even if they leave, they will be very very likely be replaced in the rotation by vet min ring chasers and not very raw 2nd round draft picks.
younggunsmn
Head Coach
Posts: 6,767
And1: 2,595
Joined: May 28, 2007
Location: Hiding from the thought police.

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#477 » by younggunsmn » Fri May 10, 2024 10:21 am

Klomp wrote:
shrink wrote:
KATKlownFeet wrote:We really don't know what we have in Clark but he was a stellar defender in college and if he can play d anywhere close to how NAW plays defense, I hope he gets spot rotation minutes to see if he can contribute positively. Leonard Miller is the guy with lots of upside but he is just raw, and I think he probably needs another year to mature though I hope he gets more minutes next year.

I can’t think of a worse time to launch this unpopular take, but here ya go ..

I love NAW on an emotional level and would hate to see him be traded. However, on a GM level, he should be one of the few players Connelly should consider trading. While we have his Bird rights, how much do you think he will get paid next year, as some team’s starter? I think he’s a full MLE guy, and probably more than that. Can we even afford to make an offer that’s close? Walker needs to follow the money - he has never gotten a big paycheck. We can’t even offer an extension early since his current deal was only for two years - it would come down to him selecting our offer in Summer 2025, and he could walk for nothing.

On the other hand, NAW has maximized his trade value, even as an expiring. A trade at the February 2025 deadline could bring back a decent 1st, and maybe a couple 2nds, and it would allow us to take advantage of Connelly’s scouting background and ability to find good young players in the draft.

Truthfully, it’s miraculous that we have Naz coming off the bench, and we certainly can’t afford to also pay NAW what he’s worth and keep him on the bench. Perhaps if he (or Ant) become much better at running an offense as the de facto “starting PG,” we might be able to pay him as a starter. But even though I hate the idea, NAW trade offers will need to be considered by Connelly. Hopefully he found a 90% replacement in Jaylen (“Don’t Call me Caitlyn”) Clark.

This is absolutely correct, to be honest. Though I don't know if we can go through with it and pull the trigger, even though it might make the most financial sense. I do think, while he's not eligible for an "extension" per se, I think that he is the type of guy on the team who might accept a "below market value" deal on his next contract here. Like, I think he can get Bruce Brown money elsewhere, but might be willing to sign for $15-18M here. That's the only thing that would hold me back.

I would also add, if they decide a big man needs to be dealt, a $4 million NAW is a good way to boost your outgoing value without completely throwing off the outgoing salaries. So if you combined him with say someone making $40-50 million, the ability to bring back two players combining to make $45-55 million opens up your options and becomes more feasible.


Between Naz and NAW, NAW is the only one who will be affordable beyond 2025, and Naz is the only one who can realistically chase a starting spot in free agency.
WIth another year like this one, Naz will easily be a 20, maybe 25 million dollar player in the open market.
It's going to be Naz OR KAT, really no way to feasibly make both work beyond next season.

NAW will still be a MLE level player as he is limited by handle and playmaking, he's still a 3+D bench guy.
He's not going to find the same market as say Alex Caruso.
With Conley at only 10 million, a MLE 3rd guard should be within our budget if we can survive a couple years until Rudy's huge salary hopefully gets at least cut in half.
Winning in the playoffs does put a spotlight on your players though.

IMHO trading NAW next season for a lottery ticket would be incredibly stupid and go against everything Connelly has been doing trying to consolidate lesser quality assets for higher quality ones and develop continuity and culture not to mention what that would signal to the fans.
You could spend 10 draft pick lottery tickets and not come out with another Naz or NAW.
winforlose
RealGM
Posts: 13,116
And1: 5,733
Joined: Feb 27, 2020

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#478 » by winforlose » Fri May 10, 2024 10:47 am

younggunsmn wrote:
Klomp wrote:
shrink wrote:I can’t think of a worse time to launch this unpopular take, but here ya go ..

I love NAW on an emotional level and would hate to see him be traded. However, on a GM level, he should be one of the few players Connelly should consider trading. While we have his Bird rights, how much do you think he will get paid next year, as some team’s starter? I think he’s a full MLE guy, and probably more than that. Can we even afford to make an offer that’s close? Walker needs to follow the money - he has never gotten a big paycheck. We can’t even offer an extension early since his current deal was only for two years - it would come down to him selecting our offer in Summer 2025, and he could walk for nothing.

On the other hand, NAW has maximized his trade value, even as an expiring. A trade at the February 2025 deadline could bring back a decent 1st, and maybe a couple 2nds, and it would allow us to take advantage of Connelly’s scouting background and ability to find good young players in the draft.

Truthfully, it’s miraculous that we have Naz coming off the bench, and we certainly can’t afford to also pay NAW what he’s worth and keep him on the bench. Perhaps if he (or Ant) become much better at running an offense as the de facto “starting PG,” we might be able to pay him as a starter. But even though I hate the idea, NAW trade offers will need to be considered by Connelly. Hopefully he found a 90% replacement in Jaylen (“Don’t Call me Caitlyn”) Clark.

This is absolutely correct, to be honest. Though I don't know if we can go through with it and pull the trigger, even though it might make the most financial sense. I do think, while he's not eligible for an "extension" per se, I think that he is the type of guy on the team who might accept a "below market value" deal on his next contract here. Like, I think he can get Bruce Brown money elsewhere, but might be willing to sign for $15-18M here. That's the only thing that would hold me back.

I would also add, if they decide a big man needs to be dealt, a $4 million NAW is a good way to boost your outgoing value without completely throwing off the outgoing salaries. So if you combined him with say someone making $40-50 million, the ability to bring back two players combining to make $45-55 million opens up your options and becomes more feasible.


Between Naz and NAW, NAW is the only one who will be affordable beyond 2025, and Naz is the only one who can realistically chase a starting spot in free agency.
WIth another year like this one, Naz will easily be a 20, maybe 25 million dollar player in the open market.
It's going to be Naz OR KAT, really no way to feasibly make both work beyond next season.

NAW will still be a MLE level player as he is limited by handle and playmaking, he's still a 3+D bench guy.
He's not going to find the same market as say Alex Caruso.
With Conley at only 10 million, a MLE 3rd guard should be within our budget if we can survive a couple years until Rudy's huge salary hopefully gets at least cut in half.
Winning in the playoffs does put a spotlight on your players though.

IMHO trading NAW next season for a lottery ticket would be incredibly stupid and go against everything Connelly has been doing trying to consolidate lesser quality assets for higher quality ones and develop continuity and culture not to mention what that would signal to the fans.
You could spend 10 draft pick lottery tickets and not come out with another Naz or NAW.


I agree with almost all of this. The only problem I have is what you left out. NAW is 25 years old. He is entering his prime. Also when he plays with Jaden and Ant our defense goes from elite to something like “please god make it stop.” The four players you must keep are Ant, Jaden, Naz, and NAW. They are your young core and represent the post tax window. Bringing in free agents and developing young talent is important, but you don’t mess with that core.

You also forgot that the new TV rights deal is at minimum above the NBA’s best case target goal. This will almost ensure a 10% raise in the cap year over year. This means a higher payroll without being in the 2nd apron and we might even be able to protect the core and stay outside the tax.

Finally, you touched on NAW being the type of player to take a home town haircut. I think NAW is truly happy here. So often guys go elsewhere and struggle when away from the system, players, and coach who helped to shape them. I could see NAW wanting to stay with Ant, Finch, and the Wolves. He just had a child, presumably he will raise that child in Minnesota. This is a good place to live and raise a family. NAW could easily take a 2 year 2nd year player option deal and then get more money after Rudy’s contract is renegotiated, Karl is moved for less money coming back, and the cap is raised. I wouldn’t assume we lose NAW for nothing, or Naz for that matter. Naz already took a home town haircut because he wants to be here.

Ultimately I think we run it back in 24-25 and then redesign the team around younger and cheaper talent. I think Ant is league MVP and we go for the 3 peat in 25-26 assuming we were healthy in 24-25. We might move Karl in the offseason if the deal is sweet enough (and let’s face it, he is looking so much better this year, especially in the playoffs post injury.) in either case, I would move both Karl and Rudy before I moved NAW or Naz and I think Finch and TC and ownership are all probably on that page as well.
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 59,360
And1: 19,396
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#479 » by shrink » Fri May 10, 2024 1:05 pm

I will say that I expect that we will be championship contenders in 2025 as well, and owners don’t (or maybe the correct word is “shouldn’t”) get rid of the top end talent of championship contenders. It would be wonderful to keep the entire young core of Ant, Jaden, Naz and NAW, but Towns and Gobert are easily the second and third most talented, and important, pieces in a championship run. Unless we see incredible growth in Jaden, Naz and NAW next year, ownership shouldn’t cut Rudy or KAT, and that means we can’t afford to keep all of that young core.

With Ant’s supermax, we will be a second apron team next year, especially if they choose to bring back SloMo. And we will certainly be a second apron team in 2025-26, with Naz and NAW looking for big raises.
winforlose
RealGM
Posts: 13,116
And1: 5,733
Joined: Feb 27, 2020

Re: Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!) 

Post#480 » by winforlose » Fri May 10, 2024 5:28 pm

shrink wrote:I will say that I expect that we will be championship contenders in 2025 as well, and owners don’t (or maybe the correct word is “shouldn’t”) get rid of the top end talent of championship contenders. It would be wonderful to keep the entire young core of Ant, Jaden, Naz and NAW, but Towns and Gobert are easily the second and third most talented, and important, pieces in a championship run. Unless we see incredible growth in Jaden, Naz and NAW next year, ownership shouldn’t cut Rudy or KAT, and that means we can’t afford to keep all of that young core.

With Ant’s supermax, we will be a second apron team next year, especially if they choose to bring back SloMo. And we will certainly be a second apron team in 2025-26, with Naz and NAW looking for big raises.


Let’s break this down a bit.

Jaden is under contract for 5 years. He is making in the 20s each year. Ant gets what approximately 40+ a year with gradual increases. NAW will probably make 15, and Naz will probably make 20-25 a year. So all in say that is 100. This means we have 60-70 or more to build a non tax team around. If you trade Karl you will look for a Sabonis for Hali type deal with a blue chip coming back. You will likely sign Rudy at a discount and that is your top 6 with another 30-40 left. Expect at least one or two vet minimum ring chasers, and hope for the development of Miller and Minott. Losing Karl will hurt, but it is hardly the end of contention. Jaden has already showed more offensive potential when given more opportunities and shots. NAW is inconsistent but could easily be our 6th man. Naz has shown tremendous growth year by year and was dropping 20+ nightly with Karl out. He also tends to player and more consistent basketball with more minutes. I wouldn’t assume losing one or both Karl and Rudy would be for nothing. I also wouldn’t assume we couldn’t retool and contend with our young core in their primes and new talent brought in to fit them more directly.

Return to Minnesota Timberwolves