2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon

[LibertyPrime]

I had a couple questions on how I assign valuation for combining picks. I have always used the Aaron Barzilai valuations (that I discovered you can access through a link at Tankathon), but that paper was written in 2008, so more current numbers can be found here from Kevin Pelton. He also has done the work for second round picks, which is nice for us this year.

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The process I use is the same. Each pick is given a value based on the career performance for every player picked at that spot. Then, to combine picks, I give half value for the lower pick in a 2-for-1, and a third value for the lowest pick in a 3-for-1. This simulates being unable to find the minutes to develop and play multiple players, and it seems to come pretty close to past results.

For instance, MIN has the #19 pick (1210 points), #40 (480), #48 (380) and #50 (350). If we wondered how far we could move up using #19 and #40, that would be 1210 + (480/2) = 1450. Looking at the chart, 1450 points would be worth maybe the 14-15th pick.

Also note that these are averages over many seasons, but each draft is different, with different individual players, that different teams would have different interests in drafting. Maybe CLE a would trade the #14 this year, and maybe they wouldn’t. The results are just the averages over time of what would be a fair value trade.

So cool! It's a neat way to compute hypothetical values and compare against actual trades.

[KGdaBom]

Not sure I see the "more athletic" part. Jovic is taller AFAIK but I think you're all underrating how athletic a younger Gallinari was.

That's why Moss and I were going Galinari, but more athletic. Damn, that would be an all NBA player.

[younggunsmn]

Not sure I see the "more athletic" part. Jovic is taller AFAIK but I think you're all underrating how athletic a younger Gallinari was.

That's why Moss and I were going Galinari, but more athletic. Damn, that would be an all NBA player.

I went back and watched some early Gallinari highlights after reading that (2nd season, couldnt find any pre draft).
Jovic eats up space quicker than Gallo, not impressed with Gallo's raw footspeed. Also a bit nastier attacking the rim.

But re-watching some Jovic highlights, he's very very very raw. None of the smoothness or savvy in his game yet that made Gallo special, or quite the ability to handle in tight spaces. He'd be a surefire top 10 pick if he had the skills of a 19 year old Gallinari.
So I think Gallinari would be his potential ceiling, because of the similarities with the size and shot and a plus handle for a guy who is 6'10, with a little better physical upside.

I'd be wary of passing on a sure thing for him, but I'd be disappointed if we passed on him for someone with the likely ceiling of a bench player.

[younggunsmn]

I had a couple questions on how I assign valuation for combining picks. I have always used the Aaron Barzilai valuations (that I discovered you can access through a link at Tankathon), but that paper was written in 2008, so more current numbers can be found here from Kevin Pelton. He also has done the work for second round picks, which is nice for us this year.

Read on Twitter

The process I use is the same. Each pick is given a value based on the career performance for every player picked at that spot. Then, to combine picks, I give half value for the lower pick in a 2-for-1, and a third value for the lowest pick in a 3-for-1. This simulates being unable to find the minutes to develop and play multiple players, and it seems to come pretty close to past results.

For instance, MIN has the #19 pick (1210 points), #40 (480), #48 (380) and #50 (350). If we wondered how far we could move up using #19 and #40, that would be 1210 + (480/2) = 1450. Looking at the chart, 1450 points would be worth maybe the 14-15th pick.

Also note that these are averages over many seasons, but each draft is different, with different individual players, that different teams would have different interests in drafting. Maybe CLE a would trade the #14 this year, and maybe they wouldn’t. The results are just the averages over time of what would be a fair value trade.

Kudos on the creative approach!
Really hard to create an NFL-style pick value chart for the NBA draft for a few reasons.
1. Age difference. Harder to evaluate 19 year olds than 21-23 year olds.
2. Depth varies so much year to year (early entries a big part of that).
3. Shorter draft, only 2 rounds, and value falls of a cliff mid 2nd-round.

Also I think it's there's more downside to trade down and think you can still get your guy.
If you miss out, not a great chance you have someone as high on your board left, so many busts every year.
Easier to break the draft into tiers, and have hopefully 2 or 3 options from that tier when you pick.
Also lets you know what tier you are going to have to trade up into if you are targeting a player.

I still think 25+33 for 23 to draft Bolmaro was bonehead dumb.

[shangrila]

Not sure I see the "more athletic" part. Jovic is taller AFAIK but I think you're all underrating how athletic a younger Gallinari was.

That's why Moss and I were going Galinari, but more athletic. Damn, that would be an all NBA player.

I went back and watched some early Gallinari highlights after reading that (2nd season, couldnt find any pre draft).
Jovic eats up space quicker than Gallo, not impressed with Gallo's raw footspeed. Also a bit nastier attacking the rim.

But re-watching some Jovic highlights, he's very very very raw. None of the smoothness or savvy in his game yet that made Gallo special, or quite the ability to handle in tight spaces. He'd be a surefire top 10 pick if he had the skills of a 19 year old Gallinari.
So I think Gallinari would be his potential ceiling, because of the similarities with the size and shot and a plus handle for a guy who is 6'10, with a little better physical upside.

I'd be wary of passing on a sure thing for him, but I'd be disappointed if we passed on him for someone with the likely ceiling of a bench player.

I can see the offensive upside, even though he's inefficient right now. My main question is what his defensive upside is?

[KGdaBom]

Not sure I see the "more athletic" part. Jovic is taller AFAIK but I think you're all underrating how athletic a younger Gallinari was.

That's why Moss and I were going Galinari, but more athletic. Damn, that would be an all NBA player.

I went back and watched some early Gallinari highlights after reading that (2nd season, couldnt find any pre draft).
Jovic eats up space quicker than Gallo, not impressed with Gallo's raw footspeed. Also a bit nastier attacking the rim.

But re-watching some Jovic highlights, he's very very very raw. None of the smoothness or savvy in his game yet that made Gallo special, or quite the ability to handle in tight spaces. He'd be a surefire top 10 pick if he had the skills of a 19 year old Gallinari.
So I think Gallinari would be his potential ceiling, because of the similarities with the size and shot and a plus handle for a guy who is 6'10, with a little better physical upside.

I'd be wary of passing on a sure thing for him, but I'd be disappointed if we passed on him for someone with the likely ceiling of a bench player.

If he's a more athletic Galinari he's an all NBA player, but he's not. If we draft him I'm fine with that.

[Devilzsidewalk]

That's why Moss and I were going Galinari, but more athletic. Damn, that would be an all NBA player.

I went back and watched some early Gallinari highlights after reading that (2nd season, couldnt find any pre draft).
Jovic eats up space quicker than Gallo, not impressed with Gallo's raw footspeed. Also a bit nastier attacking the rim.

But re-watching some Jovic highlights, he's very very very raw. None of the smoothness or savvy in his game yet that made Gallo special, or quite the ability to handle in tight spaces. He'd be a surefire top 10 pick if he had the skills of a 19 year old Gallinari.
So I think Gallinari would be his potential ceiling, because of the similarities with the size and shot and a plus handle for a guy who is 6'10, with a little better physical upside.

I'd be wary of passing on a sure thing for him, but I'd be disappointed if we passed on him for someone with the likely ceiling of a bench player.

I can see the offensive upside, even though he's inefficient right now. My main question is what his defensive upside is?

I mean, we probably know what his defensive upside is - getting absolutely housed in the paint on a regular basis. We've seen enough guys now come through the league to know what works - strength and length. Jovic has neither. You need it on offense too to be able to shed defenders. His ceiling is probably savvy starter barring some unforeseen physical development, lateral footspeed, or skills development with his handle and jumpshot where he could be a viable SF. And maybe that's ok when you're talking a non-lotto pick, but I'm greedy. I want to gamble on potential star-power. We're not a solid player away from contending, we need big gains.

[shangrila]

I went back and watched some early Gallinari highlights after reading that (2nd season, couldnt find any pre draft).
Jovic eats up space quicker than Gallo, not impressed with Gallo's raw footspeed. Also a bit nastier attacking the rim.

But re-watching some Jovic highlights, he's very very very raw. None of the smoothness or savvy in his game yet that made Gallo special, or quite the ability to handle in tight spaces. He'd be a surefire top 10 pick if he had the skills of a 19 year old Gallinari.
So I think Gallinari would be his potential ceiling, because of the similarities with the size and shot and a plus handle for a guy who is 6'10, with a little better physical upside.

I'd be wary of passing on a sure thing for him, but I'd be disappointed if we passed on him for someone with the likely ceiling of a bench player.

I can see the offensive upside, even though he's inefficient right now. My main question is what his defensive upside is?

I mean, we probably know what his defensive upside is - getting absolutely housed in the paint on a regular basis. We've seen enough guys now come through the league to know what works - strength and length. Jovic has neither. You need it on offense too to be able to shed defenders. His ceiling is probably savvy starter barring some unforeseen physical development, lateral footspeed, or skills development with his handle and jumpshot where he could be a viable SF. And maybe that's ok when you're talking a non-lotto pick, but I'm greedy. I want to gamble on potential star-power. We're not a solid player away from contending, we need big gains.

I know it will seem like a lazy comparison but he seems like a Bjelica calibre of player; decently versatile offensive player with serious defensive issues.

And that wouldn't be a bad outcome, Bjelica was an average NBA player and most draft picks don't even reach that. But it seems like a boring thing to reach for.

[younggunsmn]

I can see the offensive upside, even though he's inefficient right now. My main question is what his defensive upside is?

I mean, we probably know what his defensive upside is - getting absolutely housed in the paint on a regular basis. We've seen enough guys now come through the league to know what works - strength and length. Jovic has neither. You need it on offense too to be able to shed defenders. His ceiling is probably savvy starter barring some unforeseen physical development, lateral footspeed, or skills development with his handle and jumpshot where he could be a viable SF. And maybe that's ok when you're talking a non-lotto pick, but I'm greedy. I want to gamble on potential star-power. We're not a solid player away from contending, we need big gains.

I know it will seem like a lazy comparison but he seems like a Bjelica calibre of player; decently versatile offensive player with serious defensive issues.

And that wouldn't be a bad outcome, Bjelica was an average NBA player and most draft picks don't even reach that. But it seems like a boring thing to reach for.

Bjelica is/was a sloth. Watch Jovic run on the break. Totally different levels of athleticism.
But yeah, if he has Bjelica's career, that's not a bust for pick 19. Not exactly a home run either.
I don't think Jovic can defend the wing. He should be able to switch, but straight up guarding wings I don't think he will be able to do it.

The question is if he can develop the strength and IQ to defend the 4.
He's only 19 and will develop more strength, but I wouldn't call him skinny right now.
Would be pulling a lot of low man duty in our current scheme, is that something you could see him flourishing with?

[minimus]

He has exceptional mobility and agility for 6'10". Not much leaping ability, but that is fine.

Watch on YouTube

[KGdaBom]

He has exceptional mobility and agility for 6'10". Not much leaping ability, but that is fine.

Watch on YouTube

Good handle. He sure seems to love the step back jumper.

[Klomp]

I'm always intrigued by guys with late growth spurts. I really like that this kid brings a pretty good handle to the wings with an expanding skill set.

Watch on YouTube

His drives to the rim actually remind me a lot of Jordan McLaughlin...

Watch on YouTube

[Klomp]

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[Neeva]

Peyton Watson with one of the seconds?

[jpatrick]

Watching some ignite games. First, still love Dyson Daniels for this team, but he’ll be long gone. Also, Scoot Henderson is a crazy athlete. Can’t tell if he’s the next Ja or the next Dennis Smith, Jr. I’m leaning Ja.

Jaden Hardy. He’s definitely a chucker. Don’t think he’ll be great defensively. But he can shoot and had a nice handle. I don’t think he has great feel but is a willing passer. He definitely could be a sixth man scorer in the Jordan Clarkson, Jordan Poole, maybe even Tyler Herro mold. I wouldn’t hate that pick at 19.

If it came down to Hardy or Jalen Williams. Not sure who I’d prefer.

[wolves_89]

With the additions of Connelly and Llyod, the Wolves basically have 3 organizations worth of scouting and draft prep to work with. I am beginning to wonder if they will decide to expend more assets than expected in the upcoming draft to get 2-3 guys they really like. I could see some combination of Beasley, Reid, Nowell, and Bolmaro being used in trades to move up in the draft.

It could make sense to use some assets to draft a couple of players that would fill in gaps in the rotation. Adding a few rookie scale players who would be ready to contribute in a year or two could set the Wolves up for a 3-4 year window to try to contend.

[Shaka_Zulu]

Yeah no point talking about Dyson Daniels, if he was available at 19, alot of guys would get fired in front offices season after I would be suprised if he drops lower then 8-10th pick. Despite having little scoring game, his overall package as a complimentary player is dream for most organisations.


And yeah good point wolves_89 on hiring top guys from two different organisations so close ot the draft, they will bring with them different packages of scouting for this upcoming draft. Must be awkward losing front execs so close to draft. Not that we will be picking anywhere close to Orlando lol, but Nuggets are pretty much in our range.

[_AIJ_]

This draft class is bad.

Its ok. Youve had a lot of bad takes during draft time

[moss_is_1]

This draft class is bad.

Its ok. Youve had a lot of bad takes during draft time

I don't think it's bad, I do think it lacks star power/superstars. However there looks to be a lot of good players. Starters, role players, etc.

[Slim Tubby]

This draft class is bad.

Its ok. Youve had a lot of bad takes during draft time

I don't think it's bad, I do think it lacks star power/superstars. However there looks to be a lot of good players. Starters, role players, etc.

Agreed…not a lot of studs but plenty of depth. There could be some very intriguing players available at our SRP’s if we don’t move them.


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