The Tim Connelly Thread (prev./still Fire Him)

[Klomp]

I can't really find specific posts, so that's why I'm bumping this thread to make my point.

I've read many times that Connelly does not get any credit for this team's success because Anthony Edwards was already on the roster when he took over. So does that mean all credit for the Chicago Bulls dynasty goes to Rod Thorn because he's the one who was in charge when Michael Jordan was drafted?

Tim Connelly may not have been here in 2020 when core pieces were drafted. Sure, he inherited Edwards, McDaniels and Reid, just as Jerry Krause inherited Michael Jordan. But then what? Connelly has correctly identified the core tenets of the organization and built around them. He didn't cast his building blocks aside as Tom Thibodeau did, or trade them altogether as Nico Harrison did.

Obviously, trade values can be debated. But the on-court results cannot. The excitement around the community cannot. The "vibes" cannot. Connelly was integral in making a similar turnaround in Denver, and he has done the same here.

But without Ant this team is not even a play-in team. You're going from 70 to 90.

You're pretending as if we had multiple guards like Ant cycle through here.

We haven't. He is definitely the best player we have by a longshot.

To have that gifted to you makes your job significantly easier.

Anyone can make a large splashy trade. It takes time and skill to draft multiple players and assets that feed your core.

Rosas with all of his flaws did more for this team than Connelly has. TC definitely achieved more but he also didn't have to go as far.

Rosas had to go from 0-70. Ant, Jaden, Naz, retaining KAT, that was all Rosas.

Well technically, Rosas inherited a 36-win team and turned it into a 19-win team before drafting Edwards. Was it part of the strategy? It might have been.

You're right, it takes time and skill to draft multiple players and assets that feed your core. Connelly has done that. Sure, he inherited Edwards, McDaniels and Reid. But they weren't in 2021 what they are today. There may have been glimpses, but they were not fully formed. That's why it was important how Connelly has surrounded them, creating a defensive culture and a physical, gritty identity that plays to their strengths. Rosas was building around a two-man game of Russell and Towns more than he was building around Edwards. Also don't forget, Rosas never actually made the playoffs as an executive here.

[Rookie-Mistake]

I can't really find specific posts, so that's why I'm bumping this thread to make my point.

I've read many times that Connelly does not get any credit for this team's success because Anthony Edwards was already on the roster when he took over. So does that mean all credit for the Chicago Bulls dynasty goes to Rod Thorn because he's the one who was in charge when Michael Jordan was drafted?

Tim Connelly may not have been here in 2020 when core pieces were drafted. Sure, he inherited Edwards, McDaniels and Reid, just as Jerry Krause inherited Michael Jordan. But then what? Connelly has correctly identified the core tenets of the organization and built around them. He didn't cast his building blocks aside as Tom Thibodeau did, or trade them altogether as Nico Harrison did.

Obviously, trade values can be debated. But the on-court results cannot. The excitement around the community cannot. The "vibes" cannot. Connelly was integral in making a similar turnaround in Denver, and he has done the same here.

But without Ant this team is not even a play-in team. You're going from 70 to 90.

You're pretending as if we had multiple guards like Ant cycle through here.

We haven't. He is definitely the best player we have by a longshot.

To have that gifted to you makes your job significantly easier.

Anyone can make a large splashy trade. It takes time and skill to draft multiple players and assets that feed your core.

Rosas with all of his flaws did more for this team than Connelly has. TC definitely achieved more but he also didn't have to go as far.

Rosas had to go from 0-70. Ant, Jaden, Naz, retaining KAT, that was all Rosas.

Well technically, Rosas inherited a 36-win team and turned it into a 19-win team before drafting Edwards. Was it part of the strategy? It might have been.

You're right, it takes time and skill to draft multiple players and assets that feed your core. Connelly has done that. Sure, he inherited Edwards, McDaniels and Reid. But they weren't in 2021 what they are today. There may have been glimpses, but they were not fully formed. That's why it was important how Connelly has surrounded them, creating a defensive culture and a physical, gritty identity that plays to their strengths. Rosas was building around a two-man game of Russell and Towns more than he was building around Edwards. Also don't forget, Rosas never actually made the playoffs as an executive here.

I think you hit the nail on the head with this one.. and sometimes doing less is more.
Surrounding ant with good vets is very understated..
I just wish Mike conley was 5 years younger.. such a good influence on the young guys

Sent from my SM-G991B using RealGM mobile app

[younggunsmn]

I can't really find specific posts, so that's why I'm bumping this thread to make my point.

I've read many times that Connelly does not get any credit for this team's success because Anthony Edwards was already on the roster when he took over. So does that mean all credit for the Chicago Bulls dynasty goes to Rod Thorn because he's the one who was in charge when Michael Jordan was drafted?

Tim Connelly may not have been here in 2020 when core pieces were drafted. Sure, he inherited Edwards, McDaniels and Reid, just as Jerry Krause inherited Michael Jordan. But then what? Connelly has correctly identified the core tenets of the organization and built around them. He didn't cast his building blocks aside as Tom Thibodeau did, or trade them altogether as Nico Harrison did.

Obviously, trade values can be debated. But the on-court results cannot. The excitement around the community cannot. The "vibes" cannot. Connelly was integral in making a similar turnaround in Denver, and he has done the same here.

Connelly didn't even hire the head coach or lead assistants.
They were left over from Gersson Rosas, who would probably still be here if he could have kept his pen out of the company ink.

KAT goes all the way back to Flip, as do the Andrew Wiggins and Zach Lavine trade trees.

We have basically nothing left over from Thibs, who turned Zach Lavine, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markaanen into essentially Malik Beasley and Jared Vanderbilt.

Rosas is responsible for Ant, Jaden, and Naz. As well as leaving an excellent salary cap situation.
He turned Andrew Wiggins, a 1st round pick that ended up becoming Johnathan Kuminga into DeAngelo Russell.
He drafted a failure in jarret Culver at #5 and later dealt him for Patrick Beverley who helped lead us to the playoffs.

TC traded Beverly, Beasley, Vanderbilt, failed Rosas pick Bolmaro, 5 first round picks, and a '26 swap that looks highly unlikely for Gobert.
This essentially ends the Jimmy Butler trade tree.
We know the relative value of 3 of the 5 picks so far.
Walker Kessler (#22 2022), Keyonte George (#16 2023), and #21 in 2025.

TC traded Russell for Conley, NAW, and 3 early 2nd round picks.
Those 2nd round picks have turned into:
#37 2024 (traded to Det to dump Wendell Moore's contract, Jaylen Wells was taken 2 picks later by Mem)
#31 2025 (we still own)
2026 Utah 2nd (traded to SAS along with our own 2028 2nd for Leonard Miller)

TC signed Kyle Anderson as a FA who was a useful rotation player for 2 seasons and was not brought back due to luxury tax concerns.

TC traded an unprotected 2031 1st and an unprotected 2030 swap for Rob Dillingham (#8 2024)

TC drafted TJ Shannon (#27 2024)
TC spent #29 in 2022 and 3 future second round picks on trading up 3 spots for and then salary dumping Wendell Moore Jr.

TC has used 4 2nd round picks to draft Josh Minott, Leonard Miller, and Jaylen Clark.
Also spent one on Monte Morris who we would not even use in the playoffs.

TC traded KAT (4 years supermax left) for Randle (1 year + player option left) and DDV (3/36 left), and #17 2025

So if you are going to judge TC on his moves,
1. He essentailly turned Rosas's core of KAT+Russell into:
Conley, NAW, Randle, DDV, #17 and #31 2025, and half of Leonard Miller.

2. Traded 5 likely post lottery picks for Rudy Gobert

3. Extended Rosas core pieces Edwards (5 years) McDaniels (5 years) and Reid (2 years)

4. Not hit on any definite rotation players in the draft yet. Rob, Clark, and TJ still have that potential though.
I don't count Kessler because he didn't spend a minute with us. Who knows much Finch even plays him.

So he's responsible for 5/8 of our current rotation.

If there is a strength to what TC has done, it is that he moved off of the players Rosas left him that had shaky character/attitude (Russell + Beasley specifically). Which made it confusing when he took on a player with Randle's rep in the KAT trade.

The jury is still out on the KAT trade.
Randle has had one very good playoff series and one shaky regular season here, and his contract situation this summer is a huge question mark.
DDV has been a high BBIQ and high effort roleplayer but his production and efficiency hasn't matched what he did in NY.
IMHO it's going to take a finals appearance, Randle working out really well long term, or finding a starting caliber player with the draft pick for the KAT trade ever to be judged in our favor.

Free Agency could lead to another big shakeup this summer.

I would have fired him at the end of the regular season.
We'll see what the rest of the playoffs brings.
If it turns out the KAT trade was forced on him by new ownership, as has been hinted at a bit with KAT's reps supposedly having heat with AROD, it would leave me with a much more sympathetic view of TC.

But at this point I'm not at all impressed with his grasp of either trade value or talent in the draft.
2 key things you want from your POBO.

[Worm Guts]

Sometimes I wonder if we miss the forest for the trees. What decides how good a GM or a POBO is, isn’t any specific move, it’s how successful the team is. Connolly has put together the most successful stretch in team history, not that it’s a particularly high bar.

[younggunsmn]

Sometimes I wonder if we miss the forest for the trees. What decides how good a GM or a POBO is, isn’t any specific move, it’s how successful the team is. Connolly has put together the most successful stretch in team history, not that it’s a particularly high bar.

I guess it's a little weird because of how he got the job, with the previous guy getting fired for non-basketball reasons after having already built a playoff team.

Usually GMs, especially in markets like this, are starting from failed states.

I guess it depends on how you measure success.
Is it longevity, being good for a long time?
Or do you measure by peak success?

Ant, at 23, already has more playoff series wins than KG got in 12 seasons here.
Does that make those 8 straight playoff appearances less valuable?

What worries about TC, first after the Gobert trade and again after KAT was traded largely due to luxury tax concerns and we traded picks 7 years out for a very raw and not ready for prime time 19 year old, is that he is selling out the long term for more short term success.

How sustainable is what he is building?
From both a talent and financial perspective?
That is the long term concern.

[Klomp]

How sustainable is what he is building?
From both a talent and financial perspective?
That is the long term concern.

I get it. There is some concern, just because of the unknown and we are honestly entering foreign territory as a fan base.

But what personally gives me a little more reassurance that things will work out is that he's done plenty of retooling around. When he took over the Nuggets it was the Lawson/Gallo/Faried group. After a few years, they transitioned to the young core with vets like Millsap. While Jokic/Murray have been the core group, plenty of role players have been swapped in and out. To me, that's what will happen here with Edwards/McDaniels/Reid as the core and building around them. He's gone from Towns to Randle, from Russell to Conley. He added young guys over the years to complement his core in Denver as they developed, doing the same here.

[vtime]

Sometimes I wonder if we miss the forest for the trees. What decides how good a GM or a POBO is, isn’t any specific move, it’s how successful the team is. Connolly has put together the most successful stretch in team history, not that it’s a particularly high bar.

I guess it's a little weird because of how he got the job, with the previous guy getting fired for non-basketball reasons after having already built a playoff team.

Usually GMs, especially in markets like this, are starting from failed states.

I guess it depends on how you measure success.
Is it longevity, being good for a long time?
Or do you measure by peak success?

Ant, at 23, already has more playoff series wins than KG got in 12 seasons here.
Does that make those 8 straight playoff appearances less valuable?

What worries about TC, first after the Gobert trade and again after KAT was traded largely due to luxury tax concerns and we traded picks 7 years out for a very raw and not ready for prime time 19 year old, is that he is selling out the long term for more short term success.

How sustainable is what he is building?
From both a talent and financial perspective?
That is the long term concern.

If you have Ant, Naz, Jaden, Clark, Shannon, Dilly, and the 2025, 2026, 2028, and 2030 firsts, you haven’t sold out long term.

[vtime]

I think it is more complicated than that. We don’t own our picks basically for the next 7 years. 2028 is the only year we don’t owe a pick or swap. Tanking is not gonna be a realistic option for us, no matter who gets hurt or how glum things look. Add to that the fact that we are a 2nd apron team, and the second apron has pretty stiff penalties for being there multiple years in a 4 year span. We need this season to work. Finch and TC don’t seem to have that urgency. If they did Karl would have moved at the deadline instead of before camp.

I said this years ago, when we first acquired Gobert. With him on the team, the absolute floor of the team is .500. There is no tanking. As bad as it gets, he alone will keep the team around a .500 record at worst. I think that's what Connelly is banking on with trading picks. With Gobert on the team, the value lost via the picks themselves should be limited.

And while you can argue the logic behind the Towns trade, I do think the second apron penalties play a role in it. I think there were players they were targeting that they felt they could extract enough player value while gaining enough roster flexibility to maneuver around the second apron. I don't think a deadline deal would be any better. I think we'd actually see similar value, at best. Teams aren't usually as willing to make major trades during the season. You get as much value as you can get, but the real blockbusters happen in the offseason. And essentially, this trade happened in-season.

When a player of Karl’s talent is available in his prime with this much control deals can happen. If we got a good deal but not a great deal I would agree with you. This deal was not good or great, it was miserable. Worse still if we end up keeping Randle it saved very little money. We had to cut KBD which dead moneyed some of the savings. Overall maybe ownership pays 10 million less but loses a ton of revenue on being flexed out of prime time for games, decreased ticket value, decreased merch sales, fewer playoff games, ect… A deal this bad should not have happened and could definitely have been found at mid season.

The Randle trade is looking less miserable by the day.

[winforlose]

I said this years ago, when we first acquired Gobert. With him on the team, the absolute floor of the team is .500. There is no tanking. As bad as it gets, he alone will keep the team around a .500 record at worst. I think that's what Connelly is banking on with trading picks. With Gobert on the team, the value lost via the picks themselves should be limited.

And while you can argue the logic behind the Towns trade, I do think the second apron penalties play a role in it. I think there were players they were targeting that they felt they could extract enough player value while gaining enough roster flexibility to maneuver around the second apron. I don't think a deadline deal would be any better. I think we'd actually see similar value, at best. Teams aren't usually as willing to make major trades during the season. You get as much value as you can get, but the real blockbusters happen in the offseason. And essentially, this trade happened in-season.

When a player of Karl’s talent is available in his prime with this much control deals can happen. If we got a good deal but not a great deal I would agree with you. This deal was not good or great, it was miserable. Worse still if we end up keeping Randle it saved very little money. We had to cut KBD which dead moneyed some of the savings. Overall maybe ownership pays 10 million less but loses a ton of revenue on being flexed out of prime time for games, decreased ticket value, decreased merch sales, fewer playoff games, ect… A deal this bad should not have happened and could definitely have been found at mid season.

The Randle trade is looking less miserable by the day.

For this year maybe. But overall, sorry no. Again, Karl was 4 more years of control and a solid draft return as well which helps fill out the team around Ant/Jaden/Naz core. I still think we lost on value, even if Randle plays very well in the playoffs.

[BlacJacMac]

When a player of Karl’s talent is available in his prime with this much control deals can happen. If we got a good deal but not a great deal I would agree with you. This deal was not good or great, it was miserable. Worse still if we end up keeping Randle it saved very little money. We had to cut KBD which dead moneyed some of the savings. Overall maybe ownership pays 10 million less but loses a ton of revenue on being flexed out of prime time for games, decreased ticket value, decreased merch sales, fewer playoff games, ect… A deal this bad should not have happened and could definitely have been found at mid season.

The Randle trade is looking less miserable by the day.

For this year maybe. But overall, sorry no. Again, Karl was 4 more years of control and a solid draft return as well which helps fill out the team around Ant/Jaden/Naz core. I still think we lost on value, even if Randle plays very well in the playoffs.

So if it looks good this year, I guess if Randle resigns for significantly less than KAT, it becomes a win for us?

[winforlose]

The Randle trade is looking less miserable by the day.

For this year maybe. But overall, sorry no. Again, Karl was 4 more years of control and a solid draft return as well which helps fill out the team around Ant/Jaden/Naz core. I still think we lost on value, even if Randle plays very well in the playoffs.

So if it looks good this year, I guess if Randle resigns for significantly less than KAT, it becomes a win for us?

There are two ways to look at this.

Way 1: talent out, talent in, effect on the roster. We know that the defense has regressed, we won 48 games instead of 56, and had some very tough growing pains. All of the being true, Randle and DDV played well enough to advance past round 1. Playoffs really are the only thing that matter, and we advanced. Whether KAT is better than Randle and DDV is an impossible question to answer. What matchup we would have had is impossible to answer, who knows how many more wins we get with Karl, who we match up with ect… So far Randle and DDV have held up enough that the short term of the trade is acceptable.

Way 2: The long term outlook of the team. If you view Karl as the best asset in the trade, then you must ask if we got good value for that asset. Firsts have a great deal of trade value even when the players themselves do not. TSJ’s pick may have been more valuable than TSJ in trading, but that does not mean TSJ is bad.

If Karl is worth 5 firsts (he is better than Bridges who went for 5,) then DDV and Randle must be worth 4. I have DDV as being worth 1 at this point. Even if Randle is worth 2, we are still short. Worse, Randle was acquired to expire. If he stays we probably lose Naz. If we keep both Randle and Naz then what other moves do we make. It probably means being in the 2nd apron and getting no Tax payer MLE. We also have roster balance issues and secondary issues (both Naz and Randle cannot start, does Randle hold back Naz, does Rudy get moved, if yes for who, ect…) I am not TC so I cannot with accuracy or authority speak to what comes next. What I can say is the initial value on Karl and the roster constructions issues that created are bad.

[BlacJacMac]

If Karl is worth 5 firsts (he is better than Bridges who went for 5,) then DDV and Randle must be worth 4. I have DDV as being worth 1 at this point. Even if Randle is worth 2, we are still short. Worse, Randle was acquired to expire. If he stays we probably lose Naz. If we keep both Randle and Naz then what other moves do we make. It probably means being in the 2nd apron and getting no Tax payer MLE. We also have roster balance issues and secondary issues (both Naz and Randle cannot start, does Randle hold back Naz, does Rudy get moved, if yes for who, ect…) I am not TC so I cannot with accuracy or authority speak to what comes next. What I can say is the initial value on Karl and the roster constructions issues that created are bad.

There is just way too much speculation and assumptions in all this.

KAT vs Bridges: Bridges was an overpay by NY. That does not mean every other player must be an equal overpay. You also have to account for salary. KAT's 49M is much more of an anchor than Bridges 23M. There were very few teams lining up to take on KAT's Super Max. Bridges was seen as a bargain contract and that drove up his price.

Worse, Randle was acquired to expire.

Do we know that? We do know Finch loves Randle and has for a long time. Are we sure he wasn't acquired to be resigned?

(both Naz and Randle cannot start...)

I don't see Naz as a starter. He doesn't do anything beyond score at a "starter level". And when his shot isn't falling, his whole game suffers. He really is an ideal 6th man. Instant offense and plenty of minutes when he's on. A short leash when he doesn't have it.

Randle has been better than Naz down the stretch and in the Playoffs. The other thing we've been learning is Naz and Randle actually play well together when we aren't facing a monster Center (and there really aren't many of those). We've been closing games with Ant, DDV, McD, Naz and Randle - and suddenly we're a very good "clutch" team.

[younggunsmn]

Sometimes I wonder if we miss the forest for the trees. What decides how good a GM or a POBO is, isn’t any specific move, it’s how successful the team is. Connolly has put together the most successful stretch in team history, not that it’s a particularly high bar.

I guess it's a little weird because of how he got the job, with the previous guy getting fired for non-basketball reasons after having already built a playoff team.

Usually GMs, especially in markets like this, are starting from failed states.

I guess it depends on how you measure success.
Is it longevity, being good for a long time?
Or do you measure by peak success?

Ant, at 23, already has more playoff series wins than KG got in 12 seasons here.
Does that make those 8 straight playoff appearances less valuable?

What worries about TC, first after the Gobert trade and again after KAT was traded largely due to luxury tax concerns and we traded picks 7 years out for a very raw and not ready for prime time 19 year old, is that he is selling out the long term for more short term success.

How sustainable is what he is building?
From both a talent and financial perspective?
That is the long term concern.

If you have Ant, Naz, Jaden, Clark, Shannon, Dilly, and the 2025, 2026, 2028, and 2030 firsts, you haven’t sold out long term.

3 of those 4 draft picks are not tradeable because of Stepien restrictions and 2 of those 4 also have unprotected swaps.
So yeah that doesnt help your argument.
If TC could trade them, they would already be gone.

The only Timberwolves' own 1st and 2nd round picks between now and 2031 TC has available to trade are:
2028 1st round swap rights and 2031 2nd.
He's also prohibited from trading our own 2029 2nd because Utah gets it if our 2029 1st somehow ends up in the top 5.

Between July 2022 and July 2024 TC traded away nearly every allowable Timberwolves draft pick between 2023 and 2031.

When you do that, you better have some team success, or you have bankrupted your franchise (looking at you Matt Ishbia and Phoenix).

The ones that are the most risky are the ones out past the end of Ant and Jaden's contracts, which go through June 2029.

The Gobert gamble was actually a lot smarter and less risky than the Dillingham gamble, when you look at it that way.

[Klomp]

Between July 2022 and July 2024 TC traded away nearly every allowable Timberwolves draft pick between 2023 and 2031.

When you do that, you better have some team success, or you have bankrupted your franchise (looking at you Matt Ishbia and Phoenix).

And clearly haven't had any team success, since we are currently no better off than when David Kahn was running the franchise.

No all-stars, no award winners, no building blocks whatsoever. We are completely bankrupted.

[younggunsmn]

Between July 2022 and July 2024 TC traded away nearly every allowable Timberwolves draft pick between 2023 and 2031.

When you do that, you better have some team success, or you have bankrupted your franchise (looking at you Matt Ishbia and Phoenix).

And clearly haven't had any team success, since we are currently no better off than when David Kahn was running the franchise.

No all-stars, no award winners, no building blocks whatsoever. We are completely bankrupted.

All-Stars and building blocks which were here and developed when he got here?

Not bankrupt, yet.
But we also haven't had major success, yet.

There's a lot left to be written between now and July 2031.

We finished one game out of the play-in.
Success can be a fickle mistress.

Just ask Dallas or Phoenix, which had a young core that went to the finals and then made the same kind of all-in moves.

Let's see if TC will hang onto Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid.
The thing that killed Phoenix wasn't the beal trade, it was giving up Mikal Bridges and giving up on Ayton.

If anything I hope a deep playoff run will disabuse TC of the notion of giving up anything of long term value for Kevin Durant this summer.

[Klomp]

We finished one game out of the play-in.
Success can be a fickle mistress.

You're absolutely right, it can be.

Because once you get to the playoffs, regular season wins don't matter. You can be a No. 6 seed and beat a No. 3 seed, or you can even be a No. 5 seed only one game out of the play-in and advance all the way to the NBA Finals like last year's Western Conference champions.

[Klomp]

All-Stars and building blocks which were here and developed when he got here?

So they have not developed in any way in the last three seasons?!

[Note30]

All-Stars and building blocks which were here and developed when he got here?

So they have not developed in any way in the last three seasons?!

Typically it's the coaches job to develop the players.

The winningest coach we've had who was also hired by the previous GM.

[shrink]

We finished one game out of the play-in.
Success can be a fickle mistress.

You're absolutely right, it can be.

Because once you get to the playoffs, regular season wins don't matter. You can be a No. 6 seed and beat a No. 3 seed, or you can even be a No. 5 seed only one game out of the play-in and advance all the way to the NBA Finals like last year's Western Conference champions.

Right. I think if you polled the league, they would say were the #2 seed n the West.

But of course, there was only a two game difference in regular season record between the #3 through #8 seed, so any two of those teams could have been in the Play In.

[Battletrigger]

Man, some people here are really hard to read.

I want to believe that are recent Wolves fans cause, man, I remember the Big Al days, the Brewer or Gomes days where we had a "bright" future ahead with picks and young players.

What a joke.

Our bright future that was going to led us to a Championship were guys like Jonny Flynn, Wesley Johnson, Derrick Williams or Ricky Rubio.

Now we have the best era of the organization, with solid players, good chemistry and success and people are talking here is we are doomed or if we have mortgaged our future.

The worst part it's that all of those arguments are bull, we have young players to develop, the 2025, 2026, 2028, and 2030 firsts and good players how want to stay here.

And people are whining cause we don't own our 2031 pick...?

In Spanish we have one sentence: El caviar no está hecho para la boca del asno. A Google translator would be Caviar is not made for donkeys mouth. Very accurate.