The Tim Connelly Thread (prev./still Fire Him)

[Klomp]

Man, some people here are really hard to read.

I want to believe that are recent Wolves fans cause, man, I remember the Big Al days, the Brewer or Gomes days where we had a "bright" future ahead with picks and young players.

What a joke.

Our bright future that was going to led us to a Championship were guys like Jonny Flynn, Wesley Johnson, Derrick Williams or Ricky Rubio.

Now we have the best era of the organization, with solid players, good chemistry and success and people are talking here is we are doomed or if we have mortgaged our future.

The worst part it's that all of those arguments are bull, we have young players to develop, the 2025, 2026, 2028, and 2030 firsts and good players how want to stay here.

And people are whining cause we don't own our 2031 pick...?

In Spanish we have one sentence: El caviar no está hecho para la boca del asno. A Google translator would be Caviar is not made for donkeys mouth. Very accurate.

I think this is really good. Another way I'd probably put it: Don't worry about the future so much that you forget about the present.

In some ways, I get it. I get how someone could look at the past three years and say we're focusing more on the present than the future. But I think a few things are really important.
-Losing begets losing. This was my fear with just keeping the status quo before Connelly came along. It wasn't a foregone conclusion that the 2021-22 group would just continue on an upward trajectory. That was a volatile group, which was evident throughout the Memphis series. It actually reminds me quite a bit of what the 2012-13 Nuggets were like when Connelly took over that team.
-Out of one side of the mouth comes claims that Connelly is going all-in and mortgaging the future, but a key move of that claim includes trading for a raw 19-year old. When that 2031 pick plays his first game, Rob will be 26 years old and on his second contract.

[life_saver]

I wonder how much revenue Wolves make from hosting a playoff game...I remember reading somewhere that Warriors make around $10M from each playoff game but that's Chase Center in SF where average ticket price is insanely high like $300-$400. Wolves tickets are more expensive than say Cavs, Pacers, OKC but still less expensive than Warriors. If we assume Wolves tickets are like 40-50% of Warriors prices, then that'd be like $3-4M per playoff game. If the team make another run to WCF, then this should probably help in getting like $25-35M in revenue which should help in offsetting some of the luxury tax expenses

[TimberKat]

I wonder how much revenue Wolves make from hosting a playoff game...I remember reading somewhere that Warriors make around $10M from each playoff game but that's Chase Center in SF where average ticket price is insanely high like $300-$400. Wolves tickets are more expensive than say Cavs, Pacers, OKC but still less expensive than Warriors. If we assume Wolves tickets are like 40-50% of Warriors prices, then that'd be like $3-4M per playoff game. If the team make another run to WCF, then this should probably help in getting like $25-35M in revenue which should help in offsetting some of the luxury tax expenses

Now I really feel sorry for Suns

[shrink]

Overall, I have thought Tim Connelly has done a very good job here.

I think most of his trades have all worked out (Gobert, Randle, Conley), and even the ones that didn’t (Monte Morris, TPE for Kyle Anderson), opened up possibilities for the future. I’m going to say the Dillingham trade is too early to call.

In free agency, he has done something no other MIN GM has done - getting players to take less to play in MIN! The Kyle Anderson acquisition was perfect for what the team needed right then. I’m not going to hold last year’s lackluster free agency against him, with MIN only able to offer vet min deals, and spots on the bench for a very deep team. This is an area I worry about though, because his willingness to overpay his signings in DEN has led to their inability to afford depth, specifically retaining a 3-and-D guard they desperately need. I hope he doesn’t start overpaying Randle, Naz and NAW this summer.

Overall, I think he has done a good job bringing in high quality people that have created a good team culture, and has provided Chris Finch with different players that give him multiple switches he can pull.

[younggunsmn]

I think this is really good. Another way I'd probably put it: Don't worry about the future so much that you forget about the present.

In some ways, I get it. I get how someone could look at the past three years and say we're focusing more on the present than the future. But I think a few things are really important.
-Losing begets losing. This was my fear with just keeping the status quo before Connelly came along. It wasn't a foregone conclusion that the 2021-22 group would just continue on an upward trajectory. That was a volatile group, which was evident throughout the Memphis series. It actually reminds me quite a bit of what the 2012-13 Nuggets were like when Connelly took over that team.
-Out of one side of the mouth comes claims that Connelly is going all-in and mortgaging the future, but a key move of that claim includes trading for a raw 19-year old. When that 2031 pick plays his first game, Rob will be 26 years old and on his second contract.

When that 2031 pick plays his first game Rob Dillingham will be out of the league or playing in Europe.
You take a big swing like that you better be right.
And TC was very wrong there.
We got close to ZERO value out of that trade this year and it does not look promising for the future.

What could we trade Rob Dillingham for on Draft Day?
Would any team even give us a late 1st for him?
Now what would they give for an unprotected 2031 1st and 2030 swap?
That's an incredible drop in value.

The 2030/31 picks we gave up are more dangerous than the Rudy picks because:
1. They are past the end of Ant and Jaden's contracts and potential free agency
2. Rudy is almost certain to be retired by then.

Those picks could be very good at a time we actually could need them to reload.
Lack of draft picks and ability to add young talent played a big part in torpedoing KG's prime years.
And as long as it took, we never would have been able to crawl out of the muck without the draft.

Do I want to be back in that spot of having to hope lottery picks turn things around? Hell no.
I just think it's incredibly foolish to have the hubris to believe you are still going to be a playoff team 6 or 7 years out.

TC created a massive backcourt problem when he put us deep into the tax for Gobert.
In year one he tried to paper over that with Shake Milton and Troy Brown after he tried to sign Divencenzo in free agency.
When that failed he traded them for Monte Morris, who also failed.

He tried first to fix it with the Dillingham trade, and when Rob showed up incredibly raw and unready he pulled the trigger on the KAT trade to add Divencenzo. And now Dante has been terrible in the playoffs and Gobert has had one dominant and one decent game in the 8 playoff games he's played.

[KGdaBom]

I think this is really good. Another way I'd probably put it: Don't worry about the future so much that you forget about the present.

In some ways, I get it. I get how someone could look at the past three years and say we're focusing more on the present than the future. But I think a few things are really important.
-Losing begets losing. This was my fear with just keeping the status quo before Connelly came along. It wasn't a foregone conclusion that the 2021-22 group would just continue on an upward trajectory. That was a volatile group, which was evident throughout the Memphis series. It actually reminds me quite a bit of what the 2012-13 Nuggets were like when Connelly took over that team.
-Out of one side of the mouth comes claims that Connelly is going all-in and mortgaging the future, but a key move of that claim includes trading for a raw 19-year old. When that 2031 pick plays his first game, Rob will be 26 years old and on his second contract.

When that 2031 pick plays his first game Rob Dillingham will be out of the league or playing in Europe.
You take a big swing like that you better be right.
And TC was very wrong there.
We got close to ZERO value out of that trade this year and it does not look promising for the future.

What could we trade Rob Dillingham for on Draft Day?
Would any team even give us a late 1st for him?
Now what would they give for an unprotected 2031 1st and 2030 swap?
That's an incredible drop in value.

The 2030/31 picks we gave up are more dangerous than the Rudy picks because:
1. They are past the end of Ant and Jaden's contracts and potential free agency
2. Rudy is almost certain to be retired by then.

Those picks could be very good at a time we actually could need them to reload.
Lack of draft picks and ability to add young talent played a big part in torpedoing KG's prime years.
And as long as it took, we never would have been able to crawl out of the muck without the draft.

Do I want to be back in that spot of having to hope lottery picks turn things around? Hell no.
I just think it's incredibly foolish to have the hubris to believe you are still going to be a playoff team 6 or 7 years out.

TC created a massive backcourt problem when he put us deep into the tax for Gobert.
In year one he tried to paper over that with Shake Milton and Troy Brown after he tried to sign Divencenzo in free agency.
When that failed he traded them for Monte Morris, who also failed.

He tried first to fix it with the Dillingham trade, and when Rob showed up incredibly raw and unready he pulled the trigger on the KAT trade to add Divencenzo. And now Dante has been terrible in the playoffs and Gobert has had one dominant and one decent game in the 8 playoff games he's played.

And we still might win the championship. Go Wolves!!!!!!!!

[younggunsmn]

We got really lucky with our playoff draw avoiding OKC and Denver for 2 rounds.

I'm super excited where we are at right now but I don't know what to think of this team yet.
I want to see another level from us before I start getting my hopes up for a title.

[guest81]

I think this is really good. Another way I'd probably put it: Don't worry about the future so much that you forget about the present.

In some ways, I get it. I get how someone could look at the past three years and say we're focusing more on the present than the future. But I think a few things are really important.
-Losing begets losing. This was my fear with just keeping the status quo before Connelly came along. It wasn't a foregone conclusion that the 2021-22 group would just continue on an upward trajectory. That was a volatile group, which was evident throughout the Memphis series. It actually reminds me quite a bit of what the 2012-13 Nuggets were like when Connelly took over that team.
-Out of one side of the mouth comes claims that Connelly is going all-in and mortgaging the future, but a key move of that claim includes trading for a raw 19-year old. When that 2031 pick plays his first game, Rob will be 26 years old and on his second contract.

When that 2031 pick plays his first game Rob Dillingham will be out of the league or playing in Europe.
You take a big swing like that you better be right.
And TC was very wrong there.
We got close to ZERO value out of that trade this year and it does not look promising for the future.

What could we trade Rob Dillingham for on Draft Day?
Would any team even give us a late 1st for him?
Now what would they give for an unprotected 2031 1st and 2030 swap?
That's an incredible drop in value.

The 2030/31 picks we gave up are more dangerous than the Rudy picks because:
1. They are past the end of Ant and Jaden's contracts and potential free agency
2. Rudy is almost certain to be retired by then.

Those picks could be very good at a time we actually could need them to reload.
Lack of draft picks and ability to add young talent played a big part in torpedoing KG's prime years.
And as long as it took, we never would have been able to crawl out of the muck without the draft.

Do I want to be back in that spot of having to hope lottery picks turn things around? Hell no.
I just think it's incredibly foolish to have the hubris to believe you are still going to be a playoff team 6 or 7 years out.

TC created a massive backcourt problem when he put us deep into the tax for Gobert.
In year one he tried to paper over that with Shake Milton and Troy Brown after he tried to sign Divencenzo in free agency.
When that failed he traded them for Monte Morris, who also failed.

He tried first to fix it with the Dillingham trade, and when Rob showed up incredibly raw and unready he pulled the trigger on the KAT trade to add Divencenzo. And now Dante has been terrible in the playoffs and Gobert has had one dominant and one decent game in the 8 playoff games he's played.

Point guard is the hardest position to be good at right away in the nba. I think it's shortsighted to call Rob a bust right away

[BlacJacMac]

If Dillingham is already a bust, who else is? Here are your 1st round PGs.

Dillingham: 44/34/53, 2:1 AST:TO
Sheppard: 35/34/81, 2:1 AST:TO
Castle: 43/29/72, 2:1 AST:TO
Collier: 42/25/68, 2:1 AST:TO
McCain: 46/38/88, 1.5:1 AST:TO

Sheppard is about as small as Rob, but w/o the athleticism.
Castle at least has great size.
McCain was the only one to carry over his college shooting.
Rob's FT% is ugly, but its 15 attempts. I'll trust his 80% in college more than that small sample.

Speaking of college:

Dillingham: 48/44/80, 2:1 AST:TO
Sheppard: 54/52/83, 2:1 AST:TO
Castle: 47/27/76, 2:1 AST:TO
Collier: 49/34/67, 1.3:1 AST:TO
McCain: 46/41/89, 1.5:1 AST:TO

[KGdaBom]

If Dillingham is already a bust, who else is? Here are your 1st round PGs.

Dillingham: 44/34/53, 2:1 AST:TO
Sheppard: 35/34/81, 2:1 AST:TO
Castle: 43/29/72, 2:1 AST:TO
Collier: 42/25/68, 2:1 AST:TO
McCain: 46/38/88, 1.5:1 AST:TO

Sheppard is about as small as Rob, but w/o the athleticism.
Castle at least has great size.
McCain was the only one to carry over his college shooting.
Rob's FT% is ugly, but its 15 attempts. I'll trust his 80% in college more than that small sample.

Speaking of college:

Dillingham: 48/44/80, 2:1 AST:TO
Sheppard: 54/52/83, 2:1 AST:TO
Castle: 47/27/76, 2:1 AST:TO
Collier: 49/34/67, 1.3:1 AST:TO
McCain: 46/41/89, 1.5:1 AST:TO

If Dilly can turn it around and become a contributing NBA player that will be big. If he becomes an actual NBA starting PG that will be Huge. If he busts out of the league that will really suck.

[younggunsmn]

Point guard is the hardest position to be good at right away in the nba. I think it's shortsighted to call Rob a bust right away

Well you got the short part right.

[Battletrigger]

I think this is really good. Another way I'd probably put it: Don't worry about the future so much that you forget about the present.

In some ways, I get it. I get how someone could look at the past three years and say we're focusing more on the present than the future. But I think a few things are really important.
-Losing begets losing. This was my fear with just keeping the status quo before Connelly came along. It wasn't a foregone conclusion that the 2021-22 group would just continue on an upward trajectory. That was a volatile group, which was evident throughout the Memphis series. It actually reminds me quite a bit of what the 2012-13 Nuggets were like when Connelly took over that team.
-Out of one side of the mouth comes claims that Connelly is going all-in and mortgaging the future, but a key move of that claim includes trading for a raw 19-year old. When that 2031 pick plays his first game, Rob will be 26 years old and on his second contract.

When that 2031 pick plays his first game Rob Dillingham will be out of the league or playing in Europe.
You take a big swing like that you better be right.
And TC was very wrong there.
We got close to ZERO value out of that trade this year and it does not look promising for the future.

What could we trade Rob Dillingham for on Draft Day?
Would any team even give us a late 1st for him?
Now what would they give for an unprotected 2031 1st and 2030 swap?
That's an incredible drop in value.

The 2030/31 picks we gave up are more dangerous than the Rudy picks because:
1. They are past the end of Ant and Jaden's contracts and potential free agency
2. Rudy is almost certain to be retired by then.

Those picks could be very good at a time we actually could need them to reload.
Lack of draft picks and ability to add young talent played a big part in torpedoing KG's prime years.
And as long as it took, we never would have been able to crawl out of the muck without the draft.

Do I want to be back in that spot of having to hope lottery picks turn things around? Hell no.
I just think it's incredibly foolish to have the hubris to believe you are still going to be a playoff team 6 or 7 years out.

TC created a massive backcourt problem when he put us deep into the tax for Gobert.
In year one he tried to paper over that with Shake Milton and Troy Brown after he tried to sign Divencenzo in free agency.
When that failed he traded them for Monte Morris, who also failed.

He tried first to fix it with the Dillingham trade, and when Rob showed up incredibly raw and unready he pulled the trigger on the KAT trade to add Divencenzo. And now Dante has been terrible in the playoffs and Gobert has had one dominant and one decent game in the 8 playoff games he's played.

Man, there are so many people here who would do better than TV that I don't know how they don't get the job.

[shrink]

Three things come to mine when I think about the Dillingham trade:

1. At the time of the trade, I was trying to stress how expensive it was. A 2031 unprotected pick that far off could be anything, including a high lottery pick. But that’s also true for the 2030 pick swap (top 1 protected). Connelly has a history of being very good at scouting, so I want to have faith, but that’s also true was a huge bet. One way to evaluate trades is to see if you could trade the player back for what you paid, and we clearly couldn’t for Dillingham yet.

2. Remember that GMs can only act on the information they have at the time. During the draft, Connelly just saw our team beat his Denver Nuggets and reach the WCF, and be defeated more by exhaustion than the Mavs. He sees we have an outside shot at a ring and plans to run it back (only missing Kyle Anderson), so we don’t want to trade our players. We’re far over the second apron, so signing free agents worth more than vet minimums is forbidden. But the team still has holes, particularly an aging Mike Conley. So using picks to add salary by creating his own second apron loophole was smart, if you trust the Dilly pick.

3. However, what Connelly couldn’t have predicted was that the Knicks would include Nova boy Donte DiVincenzo in the Towns’ trade. Accepting this trade forced Connelly and Finch to shelve their plans to use the regular season to give developmental minutes to Dillingham, to see if he could be ready to contribute something by the playoffs, because those minutes needed to go to DDV to get HIM acclimated to the team. If you believed Randle could give you 90% of KAT’s playoff production, DDV clearly has a better chance of helping you in this playoffs than Dillingham. I think players can develop in the G-League and in practice, but they aren’t going to develop team continuity or maintain trade value without getting minutes in regular season games. My hope is that we will see this off court growth in Dillingham’s regular season games next year, when Mike Conley begins to falter.

[minimus]

It took Randle almost 50 games to integrate into MIN team, despite having 10 years experience, including one season with Finch in NOP. Fans are doubting Rob after one season.

[Dalvin]

Yeah, I'd rather have Rob have a career projection of Billups (high draft pick, but blossomed late) rather than a Flynn or Brandon Jennings or Duarte where they initially performed well but fizzled out eventually (or injuries tool them out)

[TimberKat]

If Dillingham is already a bust, who else is? Here are your 1st round PGs.

Dillingham: 44/34/53, 2:1 AST:TO
Sheppard: 35/34/81, 2:1 AST:TO
Castle: 43/29/72, 2:1 AST:TO
Collier: 42/25/68, 2:1 AST:TO
McCain: 46/38/88, 1.5:1 AST:TO

Sheppard is about as small as Rob, but w/o the athleticism.
Castle at least has great size.
McCain was the only one to carry over his college shooting.
Rob's FT% is ugly, but its 15 attempts. I'll trust his 80% in college more than that small sample.

Speaking of college:

Dillingham: 48/44/80, 2:1 AST:TO
Sheppard: 54/52/83, 2:1 AST:TO
Castle: 47/27/76, 2:1 AST:TO
Collier: 49/34/67, 1.3:1 AST:TO
McCain: 46/41/89, 1.5:1 AST:TO

If Dilly can turn it around and become a contributing NBA player that will be big. If he becomes an actual NBA starting PG that will be Huge. If he busts out of the league that will really suck.

What is low ceiling for Dilly to be a success? Tyrus Jones, Ty Lawson, Pooh Richardson, Bobby Jackson, Terrell Brandon, Conley, Billups? I am going with Bobby Jackson ( especially the SAC version).

[KGdaBom]

If Dillingham is already a bust, who else is? Here are your 1st round PGs.

Dillingham: 44/34/53, 2:1 AST:TO
Sheppard: 35/34/81, 2:1 AST:TO
Castle: 43/29/72, 2:1 AST:TO
Collier: 42/25/68, 2:1 AST:TO
McCain: 46/38/88, 1.5:1 AST:TO

Sheppard is about as small as Rob, but w/o the athleticism.
Castle at least has great size.
McCain was the only one to carry over his college shooting.
Rob's FT% is ugly, but its 15 attempts. I'll trust his 80% in college more than that small sample.

Speaking of college:

Dillingham: 48/44/80, 2:1 AST:TO
Sheppard: 54/52/83, 2:1 AST:TO
Castle: 47/27/76, 2:1 AST:TO
Collier: 49/34/67, 1.3:1 AST:TO
McCain: 46/41/89, 1.5:1 AST:TO

If Dilly can turn it around and become a contributing NBA player that will be big. If he becomes an actual NBA starting PG that will be Huge. If he busts out of the league that will really suck.

What is low ceiling for Dilly to be a success? Tyrus Jones, Ty Lawson, Pooh Richardson, Bobby Jackson, Terrell Brandon, Conley, Billups? I am going with Bobby Jackson ( especially the SAC version).

I'd take Bobby Jackson, but the two players could hardly be more different. Jackson was a big, strong, athletic guard, but he did not have the ball handling skills of Dilly.

[m2002brian]

If we can get Terrell Brandon mixed with Jamal Crawford, that’s be great.

TB’s stop and pop was automatic

[Klomp]

We got really lucky with our playoff draw avoiding OKC and Denver for 2 rounds.

I'm super excited where we are at right now but I don't know what to think of this team yet.
I want to see another level from us before I start getting my hopes up for a title.

Basically every championship team in history has had a little bit of luck along the way.

[minimus]

I wonder if after assembling championship team in DEN, deep inside of his heart TC wants such challenge in MIN, such as bringing here Gobert and saving Wolves from 20 years of misery AND now bringing here KD and go in NBA Finals. Sure it is about money but maybe being high stakes, adrenaline challenges is also important.