Trade Talk (Part Seven)

[Nick K]

I’d want to do that trade too, but Ujiri would hang up the phone so fast it would make your head spin.

I'm with note30 on this. Why would Ujiri reject that? Lowry wants out. I'll repeat that Lowry wants out. Ujiri has no leverage. Philly doesn't have much leverage either because they have thrown Simmons under the bus and he wants out.

I'll bet when the time comes cooler heads prevail and a more modest price gets the deal done.

Shooting is the single most important skill in the modern game. Great shooting and ball movement nullifies great defense.

Passing is nice but a far less important skill. Simmons can put the ball on the floor and score big time. I love that about him most. Yet you have to make the free throws when you get to the line. We have the problem there. The defense is nice no doubt.

How will Simmons play without the ball in his hands all the time? I want the ball in Dlo and Ant's hands. Has anybody thought about that? Can he be an inside player? Please respond. Sell me on the vision.

I am going to trust Rosas on this one to do the right thing because 34 mil for a guy who is a great defender who can't shoot and is playing out of position is nuts. Not to mention all the players and picks we have going out.

That said, I can live with Rubio, Beasley, Okogie and 1 first unprotected going out for this experiment. I am going to trust Rosas on this one to do the right thing.

Ant won't be happy losing Rubio.

Lowry wanting out has nothing to do with us trading our crap for Fred VanVleet. That was my point. He was not talking about a Lowry trade as far as what I responded to.

Got it. Thanks.

[Domejandro]

I like this post domejandro. It helps sell me on Simmons. My concern is can he block out and rebound like a demon inside playing out of position for him? Can he accept that role. If it's yes to both I'm more eager for the trade. I still have my doubts. Help me out.

Everything data wise indicates that he is a very good rebounder, and his screen action sets with Tobias Harris show that he is a quality off-ball player.

My biggest hang-up on the Ben Simmons trade is that I desperately want to keep Malik Beasley (I would literally sacrifice every Minnesota pick to trade Ricky Rubio and fillers to keep Beasley and get Simmons), but obviously I recognize that is not going to happen, unfortunately. Malik Beasley would be AMAZING in five-out/shuffle action with Ben Simmons.

D'Angelo Russell / Jordan McLaughlin (RFA)
Malik Beasley / Jaylen Nowell
Anthony Edwards / Josh Okogie
Ben Simmons / Jaden McDaniels
Karl-Anthony Towns / Naz Reid / Jarred Vanderbilt (RFA)

That is my dream end-goal, but it isn't happening without Malik.

[andyhop]

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The biggest component that does need to be fixed is his free-throw shooting. He is a career 59.7% free-throw shooter, the team would need to develop him into consistently shooting at least 65% from the line and maintain that during Playoff basketball; slightly over 60% is roughly the breakpoint where hack-a-[insert name] becomes bunk strategy, so I think 65% is what he needs to consistently reach. I think that is completely doable.

All he needs to do is hit his career FT numbers and it makes intentionally fouling him worthless.

It would also give him the confidence to actually attack the basket more knowing that he wasn't going to be embarrassed by his FT shooting

[Godaddycurse]

Question for you guys and a break from Simmons talk for now. Rosas was quoted saying he can get back into the draft if need be with trades. Who do you see him trading and which pick can said player fetch? I would guess beasley but i think he also said beasley is part of the core?

[Nick K]

I like this post domejandro. It helps sell me on Simmons. My concern is can he block out and rebound like a demon inside playing out of position for him? Can he accept that role. If it's yes to both I'm more eager for the trade. I still have my doubts. Help me out.

Everything data wise indicates that he is a very good rebounder, and his screen action sets with Tobias Harris show that he is a quality off-ball player.

My biggest hang-up on the Ben Simmons trade is that I desperately want to keep Malik Beasley (I would literally sacrifice every Minnesota pick to trade Ricky Rubio and fillers to keep Beasley and get Simmons), but obviously I recognize that is not going to happen, unfortunately. Malik Beasley would be AMAZING in five-out/shuffle action with Ben Simmons.

D'Angelo Russell / Jordan McLaughlin (RFA)
Malik Beasley / Jaylen Nowell
Anthony Edwards / Josh Okogie
Ben Simmons / Jaden McDaniels
Karl-Anthony Towns / Naz Reid / Jarred Vanderbilt (RFA)

That is my dream end-goal, but it isn't happening without Malik.

Thanks for responding. With the premium on cold blooded 3 pt shooting Malik is our guy. Before the Simmons talk I was hoping Ricky and Beas came off the bench with Beas as instant offense 6th man.

i guess we'll see how it all plays out.

[jpatrick]

Question for you guys and a break from Simmons talk for now. Rosas was quoted saying he can get back into the draft if need be with trades. Who do you see him trading and which pick can said player fetch? I would guess beasley but i think he also said beasley is part of the core?

I see almost zero chance of us trading for a first round pick. Beasley probably would fetch a later first, but why would we make that deal? The other players capable of getting a first aren’t guys we want to move.

Better chance that we buy a second if Taylor is in the mood to spend and Rosas really likes someone. Or trade a future second for one this year to a team that has too many picks.

[TheProdigy]

Question for you guys and a break from Simmons talk for now. Rosas was quoted saying he can get back into the draft if need be with trades. Who do you see him trading and which pick can said player fetch? I would guess beasley but i think he also said beasley is part of the core?

I see almost zero chance of us trading for a first round pick. Beasley probably would fetch a later first, but why would we make that deal? The other players capable of getting a first aren’t guys we want to move.

Better chance that we buy a second if Taylor is in the mood to spend and Rosas really likes someone. Or trade a future second for one this year to a team that has too many picks.

It would really be nice to be on the winning side of a "cash considerations" deal for a change. I'm highly skeptical that Taylor would be willing to do that though when he already has one foot out the door with the franchise nearly sold.

[shrink]

Question for you guys and a break from Simmons talk for now. Rosas was quoted saying he can get back into the draft if need be with trades. Who do you see him trading and which pick can said player fetch? I would guess beasley but i think he also said beasley is part of the core?

Rosas came here with a background as an assistant GM, but he came up through scouting and development, so I think he’d love some sort of pick. There are three ways a GM can bring in players to improve a team: free agents, trades, and the draft. Rosas has not distinguished himself in the first two areas, but he has done very well in the draft. Of the six young players he’s added, only Culver would be considered a bad pick. Five they should be happy with Naz Reid (undrafted), Jaylen Nowell (#43), Anthony Edwards (#1), Leandro Bolmaro (#23), Jaden McDaniels (#28). I’m sure he’d like to use this talent again.

I think Rosas will likely end up with a 2nd round pick. It’s hard to predict these trades, since most second rounders have little value, and can be used as a place holder to complete a trade. Buying a pick is definitely a possibility, but MIN doesn’t have many roster spots this year. Since MIN is near the luxury tax, I could see a deal like Layman + cash, for a 2nd. Many players could fall into that criteria, like Juancho, or for a higher pick, Culver to OKC, or reuniting Okogie with Thibs in NY. Beasley or Rubio (CHI) are also possibilities, since they carry so much salary, with Beasley carrying more value. And while I’m in the minority, I would say that I could see Rosas churning Nowell (2nd) or even Naz Reid (late 1st), to take his profit and get a new pick, opening up minutes to develop a new rookie.

[jpatrick]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

If this happens, does Portland want to compete now and take Simmons. Or, do they want to blow it up, and take a couple Philly pieces (Maxey, Thybuille); all of Philly’s picks/pick swaps; and 2-3 first round picks from a third team that takes Simmons (probably Sac or MN).

[shrink]

If this happens, does Portland want to compete now and take Simmons. Or, do they want to blow it up, and take a couple Philly pieces (Maxey, Thybuille); all of Philly’s picks/pick swaps; and 2-3 first round picks from a third team that takes Simmons (probably Sac or MN).

I think POR would have little interest in trying to win now, and unlikely they would want Simmons. But possible.

The problem for POR are:

1. Dame is of a stature where he will get some say which team he goes to, and that list is probably short.

2. Matching Dame’s salary

3. For Neil Olshey to keep his job, the eventual package needs to contain a headliner to keep POR fans buying tickets. A bunch of future MIN picks doesn’t help the cause too much.

[jpatrick]

A problem with a trade anytime soon is that I’d be surprised if Olshey keeps his job through next week.

[Klomp]

The biggest component that does need to be fixed is his free-throw shooting. He is a career 59.7% free-throw shooter, the team would need to develop him into consistently shooting at least 65% from the line and maintain that during Playoff basketball; slightly over 60% is roughly the breakpoint where hack-a-[insert name] becomes bunk strategy, so I think 65% is what he needs to consistently reach. I think that is completely doable.

All he needs to do is hit his career FT numbers and it makes intentionally fouling him worthless.

It would also give him the confidence to actually attack the basket more knowing that he wasn't going to be embarrassed by his FT shooting

I think what ultimately sent him in a downward spiral was starting the playoffs by missing his first 10 free throws. That affected his confidence and gave Washington and Atlanta the green light to intentionally foul him.

Interestingly he entered the playoffs hitting 10 of his last 13 free throws to close the regular season.

[Klomp]

Question for you guys and a break from Simmons talk for now. Rosas was quoted saying he can get back into the draft if need be with trades. Who do you see him trading and which pick can said player fetch? I would guess beasley but i think he also said beasley is part of the core?

I actually think a Simmons trade is what could get us back in the draft, for example netting us 50 from PHI or 46/47 from Toronto.

A big hangup among Minnesota fans is Jaden McDaniels and/or Naz Reid in any deal. I think it's a hangup for Rosas too. But if we could get ourselves back into the draft, I think it could ease the pain of losing one of those guys.

[Calinks]

Lillard being traded mean other Portland players are probably up for grabs too. Maybe we can ad a quality piece we need if anyone fits or help facilitate a move. Hopefully, this mean Porltand is going to go into rebuilding mode and we don't have to worry about them taking a playoff spot next season.

On the flip side, Portland has probably been the best rebulders I have seen in the last 15 years. They successfully had several rebuild while we were struggling to make one happen. Went from being good in the early 00's to to putting together that amazing Brandon Roy/Oden team that died due to injuries. Then they came back with Aldridge/Butum team. Then they turned that into a really good Aldrdge/Lillard squad. They moved on from Aldridge and started building with Lillard and McCullom.

They have stayed relevant forever, they just could never get to that elite status. Wont be shocked if in two seasons they are back in the playoffs with some tandem.

[Klomp]

From John Hollinger's free agency primer:

5. Mike Conley, PG (Jazz): $24,495,329
Utah’s All-Star guard (man, I love typing that) heads into unrestricted free agency at the exact right time, bouncing back from an off year in 2019-20 and entering a market basically devoid of superstar talent. Conley turns 34 in October, so that will have to be priced in on a multiyear deal, but figures to cash in nicely.

The only question is where. With the Jazz facing a stiff luxury-tax payment to the league if they re-sign Conley at this market rate, there has been some speculation they might look for a cheaper alternative. In particular, Utah could end up $25 million into the tax for 2021-22 and owe a $65 million check to the league if it re-signs Conley at his BORD$ number and doesn’t make any corresponding moves to cut salary. Nonetheless, the default expectation is that Conley will return on either a two- or three-year deal.

https://theathletic.com/2708140/2021/07/15/2021-nba-free-agency-john-hollingers-top-20-free-agents-by-bord-projections-with-formula-tweaks/

What about using Utah as the third team? Send them Rubio and some other spare parts, with Conley going to Philadelphia. Conley is no spring chicken, but he's younger and arguably better than Lowry.

[Dewey]

May be an opportunity getting involved in a three-way between Portland and Philly…

[Klomp]

Lillard being traded mean other Portland players are probably up for grabs too. Maybe we can ad a quality piece we need if anyone fits or help facilitate a move. Hopefully, this mean Porltand is going to go into rebuilding mode and we don't have to worry about them taking a playoff spot next season.

On the flip side, Portland has probably been the best rebulders I have seen in the last 15 years. They successfully had several rebuild while we were struggling to make one happen. Went from being good in the early 00's to to putting together that amazing Brandon Roy/Oden team that died due to injuries. Then they came back with Aldridge/Butum team. Then they turned that into a really good Aldrdge/Lillard squad. They moved on from Aldridge and started building with Lillard and McCullom.

They have stayed relevant forever, they just could never get to that elite status. Wont be shocked if in two seasons they are back in the playoffs with some tandem.

Relevant in the same way we were in the Garnett run. 14 playoff appearances since 2000-01, but only three times past the first round. Still preferable to our last 15 years but just saying....

[Klomp]

Lillard being traded mean other Portland players are probably up for grabs too. Maybe we can ad a quality piece we need if anyone fits or help facilitate a move. Hopefully, this mean Porltand is going to go into rebuilding mode and we don't have to worry about them taking a playoff spot next season.

Will be interesting to see if they want Simmons. If not, I think I like our chances at him. If they keep him, how much would they really want to give up talent on the fringes?

[Dewey]

Lillard being traded mean other Portland players are probably up for grabs too. Maybe we can ad a quality piece we need if anyone fits or help facilitate a move. Hopefully, this mean Porltand is going to go into rebuilding mode and we don't have to worry about them taking a playoff spot next season.

On the flip side, Portland has probably been the best rebulders I have seen in the last 15 years. They successfully had several rebuild while we were struggling to make one happen. Went from being good in the early 00's to to putting together that amazing Brandon Roy/Oden team that died due to injuries. Then they came back with Aldridge/Butum team. Then they turned that into a really good Aldrdge/Lillard squad. They moved on from Aldridge and started building with Lillard and McCullom.

They have stayed relevant forever, they just could never get to that elite status. Wont be shocked if in two seasons they are back in the playoffs with some tandem.

Relevant in the same way we were in the Garnett run. 14 playoff appearances since 2000-01, but only three times past the first round. Still preferable to our last 15 years but just saying....

Good point … Whether there’s anything or anyone to blame (such as talent, chemistry, leadership, coaching etc.) there are teams that do well in the regular season but don’t have that ability (next gear) to step up the intensity and level of play during the playoffs. You Gotta be able to put it all together and it starts with having some vision and confidence in developing your young players … If you don’t do well at that, then the tax and salary cap eventually catch you

[jpatrick]

Lillard being traded mean other Portland players are probably up for grabs too. Maybe we can ad a quality piece we need if anyone fits or help facilitate a move. Hopefully, this mean Porltand is going to go into rebuilding mode and we don't have to worry about them taking a playoff spot next season.

Will be interesting to see if they want Simmons. If not, I think I like our chances at him. If they keep him, how much would they really want to give up talent on the fringes?

If, big if, a Philly/Portland deal happens, I’d think us and Sac are the most likely teams to take Simmons as a third team. I’d lean Sac over us, mainly because they have the #9 pick and Portland can at least show a shiny lotto pick as an immediate reward when moving Dame.