Re: Trade Talk (Part Twelve): 2023 Playoff Push Edition

[Slim Tubby]

I've been thinking a lot about a Julius Randle-KAT swap lately. So hear me out on this;

1. Statistically they're not that far apart. Randle has lower efficiency (58 vs 62TS%) and lower assist numbers ( 5.7 vs 6.9 per 100 possessions) but higher defensive rebounding stats (both advanced and regular), lower turnovers and a higher 3pt Attempt Rate (although slightly lower efficiency, 34 vs 36.5%). He also has a higher FT rate.

2. He's significantly cheaper. He's got 3 more years at roughly 25.5, 27.5 and a PO at 29.5mil (it's a given he'll decline that last year given the new CBA coming into effect). Compare that to KAT who's got 36mil and then the supermax kicks in with 50mil heading north to 60mil by the end. I think even KAT's biggest fans would admit he's not actually worth that much so even if he's a better player than Randle the players we could afford with the difference in their salaries would likely exceed the difference.

3. In theory we could get more than just Randle. I doubt it's players, since the Knicks want to win, but we should be able to get a 1st or 2 included to help restock after the Gobert trade. Considering the drop in on court talent would be minimal that's a smart move.

4. I know some of you think KAT is going to gracefully exit stage as Edwards takes over the team. I don't think that's a guarantee and so moving KAT for someone who doesn't have this idea that the Wolves are "their team" could cut off chemistry issues before they begin.

I'm not a fan of Randle but if the offer was Randle, Quickley and an unprotected FRP, you'd have to consider it for the reasons you posted.

[minimus]

I've been thinking a lot about a Julius Randle-KAT swap lately. So hear me out on this;

1. Statistically they're not that far apart. Randle has lower efficiency (58 vs 62TS%) and lower assist numbers ( 5.7 vs 6.9 per 100 possessions) but higher defensive rebounding stats (both advanced and regular), lower turnovers and a higher 3pt Attempt Rate (although slightly lower efficiency, 34 vs 36.5%). He also has a higher FT rate.

2. He's significantly cheaper. He's got 3 more years at roughly 25.5, 27.5 and a PO at 29.5mil (it's a given he'll decline that last year given the new CBA coming into effect). Compare that to KAT who's got 36mil and then the supermax kicks in with 50mil heading north to 60mil by the end. I think even KAT's biggest fans would admit he's not actually worth that much so even if he's a better player than Randle the players we could afford with the difference in their salaries would likely exceed the difference.

3. In theory we could get more than just Randle. I doubt it's players, since the Knicks want to win, but we should be able to get a 1st or 2 included to help restock after the Gobert trade. Considering the drop in on court talent would be minimal that's a smart move.

4. I know some of you think KAT is going to gracefully exit stage as Edwards takes over the team. I don't think that's a guarantee and so moving KAT for someone who doesn't have this idea that the Wolves are "their team" could cut off chemistry issues before they begin.

Did Julius Randle have some issues with coach and officiating? I really don't want to bring here anyone who can even potentially be cancer in locker room.

[moss_is_1]

No thanks on Randle, unless there's a ton of value coming with him. He clogs the paint even more, works way worse off ball, doesn't add anything defensively, and is horrible in the post season.

[Baseline81]

I've been thinking a lot about a Julius Randle-KAT swap lately. So hear me out on this;

1. Statistically they're not that far apart. Randle has lower efficiency (58 vs 62TS%) and lower assist numbers ( 5.7 vs 6.9 per 100 possessions) but higher defensive rebounding stats (both advanced and regular), lower turnovers and a higher 3pt Attempt Rate (although slightly lower efficiency, 34 vs 36.5%). He also has a higher FT rate.

2. He's significantly cheaper. He's got 3 more years at roughly 25.5, 27.5 and a PO at 29.5mil (it's a given he'll decline that last year given the new CBA coming into effect). Compare that to KAT who's got 36mil and then the supermax kicks in with 50mil heading north to 60mil by the end. I think even KAT's biggest fans would admit he's not actually worth that much so even if he's a better player than Randle the players we could afford with the difference in their salaries would likely exceed the difference.

3. In theory we could get more than just Randle. I doubt it's players, since the Knicks want to win, but we should be able to get a 1st or 2 included to help restock after the Gobert trade. Considering the drop in on court talent would be minimal that's a smart move.

4. I know some of you think KAT is going to gracefully exit stage as Edwards takes over the team. I don't think that's a guarantee and so moving KAT for someone who doesn't have this idea that the Wolves are "their team" could cut off chemistry issues before they begin.

Insert Michael Scott "No" GIF.

I want no part of Randle. Fans are already upset at how Towns performs in the playoffs, wait until you see Randle...

[BlacJacMac]

I think it’s dangerous to assume we’d be getting this year’s Randle. He never puts up good back-to-back shooting years. We’re just as likely (probably more so) to get last year’s version.

He’s just going to take touches away from Ant and he’s not a good locker room guy.

[shrink]

I've been thinking a lot about a Julius Randle-KAT swap lately. So hear me out on this;

1. Statistically they're not that far apart. Randle has lower efficiency (58 vs 62TS%) and lower assist numbers ( 5.7 vs 6.9 per 100 possessions) but higher defensive rebounding stats (both advanced and regular), lower turnovers and a higher 3pt Attempt Rate (although slightly lower efficiency, 34 vs 36.5%). He also has a higher FT rate.

2. He's significantly cheaper. He's got 3 more years at roughly 25.5, 27.5 and a PO at 29.5mil (it's a given he'll decline that last year given the new CBA coming into effect). Compare that to KAT who's got 36mil and then the supermax kicks in with 50mil heading north to 60mil by the end. I think even KAT's biggest fans would admit he's not actually worth that much so even if he's a better player than Randle the players we could afford with the difference in their salaries would likely exceed the difference.

3. In theory we could get more than just Randle. I doubt it's players, since the Knicks want to win, but we should be able to get a 1st or 2 included to help restock after the Gobert trade. Considering the drop in on court talent would be minimal that's a smart move.

4. I know some of you think KAT is going to gracefully exit stage as Edwards takes over the team. I don't think that's a guarantee and so moving KAT for someone who doesn't have this idea that the Wolves are "their team" could cut off chemistry issues before they begin.

This is an excellent way to make your case, so bravo. It’s especially important with someone like Randle, that even with two All NBA nods now, is going to be someone who we are resistant to.

Personally, I’d prefer KAT. I like the team loyalty, and I hope we will see Towns providing eight three pointers a game. I worry more about Randle being bothered that he isn’t the #1, than Towns, even here. I’m also concerned how Randle will act if he doesn’t get a super-max like Towns, now that he qualifies.

[Neeva]

I am definitely on the trade Kat before his supermax kicks in train but definitely not for Randle. let NY deal with overpaying him and Barrett. I also have a strong feeling Brunson’s game will fall off a cliff right after he gets a monster contract.

[Klomp]

I've been thinking a lot about a Julius Randle-KAT swap lately. So hear me out on this;

1. Statistically they're not that far apart. Randle has lower efficiency (58 vs 62TS%) and lower assist numbers ( 5.7 vs 6.9 per 100 possessions) but higher defensive rebounding stats (both advanced and regular), lower turnovers and a higher 3pt Attempt Rate (although slightly lower efficiency, 34 vs 36.5%). He also has a higher FT rate.

2. He's significantly cheaper. He's got 3 more years at roughly 25.5, 27.5 and a PO at 29.5mil (it's a given he'll decline that last year given the new CBA coming into effect). Compare that to KAT who's got 36mil and then the supermax kicks in with 50mil heading north to 60mil by the end. I think even KAT's biggest fans would admit he's not actually worth that much so even if he's a better player than Randle the players we could afford with the difference in their salaries would likely exceed the difference.

3. In theory we could get more than just Randle. I doubt it's players, since the Knicks want to win, but we should be able to get a 1st or 2 included to help restock after the Gobert trade. Considering the drop in on court talent would be minimal that's a smart move.

4. I know some of you think KAT is going to gracefully exit stage as Edwards takes over the team. I don't think that's a guarantee and so moving KAT for someone who doesn't have this idea that the Wolves are "their team" could cut off chemistry issues before they begin.

Worth mentioning that Randle is another guy who has connections here with Chris Finch, Kevin Hanson, Dell Demps, etc.

[Domejandro]

The efficiency gap between Julius Randle and Karl-Anthony Towns is pretty massive. Bridging the value gap would likely take substantially more than the New York Knicks would be willing to offer. It is worth consideration, but I wouldn't expect it.

An interesting note about New York is that they have a hodgepodge of mediocre protected First Round Draft Picks:

2024 First Round Draft Pick |Dallas Mavericks (1-10, 1-10, 2025 Second)
2024 First Round Draft Pick | Detroit Pistons (1-18, 1-13, 1-11, 1-9, 2027 Second)
2024 First Round Draft Pick | Washington Wizards (1-12, 1-10, 1-8, 2026 and 2027 Seconds)
2025 First Round Draft Pick | Milwaukee Bucks (1-4, Extinguished)

Even without Karl-Anthony Towns angle, I will be interested if the New York Knicks utilize any of these assets during this off-season.

[minimus]

Should try to get Andrew Nembhard? IND has starting PG in Haliburton and expensive backup (20 mil in two more remaining years) T.J. McConnell

Something like this: Moore for Nembhard

Draft Jordan Miller.

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Towns/Anderson/Minott
MCD/TP/Miller
Edwards/NAW/Miller
Conley/Nembhard/JMac

Watch on YouTube

[Chello1]

I see his ceiling is, ironically, is Donovan Mitchell right now. I hope he doesn't turn into Kyrie because I always hated Kyrie's game. Davis made the all star team in his thrid year and fifth year and never lived up to that again. Kyrie made all star in his second year. Potential is risky, therefore, I am willing to trade Ant for anyone who is better than (maybe equal to) Donovan Mitchell. Brown just made NBA second team today so I think he is better than a role player.

Who said Brown was a role player? I said he is a supporting player. Not a foundational piece you can build around like Ant.

Donovan Mitchel didn’t have a season as good as Edwards offensively until he was 24 that’s without mentioning Edwards being a better defender.

I don’t think you realize just how good Edwards is, let alone for his age.

sorry, my mistake on Brown comment. You are right in that I don't recognize Ant's third year is as good as Mitchell's third year. Yes, Ant is younger and may even has the potential to be better than Mitchell. He is not better than Mitchell now. Again, we are talking about potential, and I don't trust potential. It's an opinion and I am in the minority on this one.

32/5/5 against the eventual champions of the league at 21. Donovan Mitchel is just plain bad defensively. Any already is better according to most. The gap will continue to grow because Mitchel will never get better on defense, he isn't interested in that hard work. Ant is built differently and if you can't see that it is o.k. but it makes me question the rest of your takes. Ray Charles can see the difference on the defensive side and that alone makes it a giant win for Ant!

[Note30]

Should try to get Andrew Nembhard? IND has starting PG in Haliburton and expensive backup (20 mil in two more remaining years) T.J. McConnell

Something like this: Moore for Nembhard

Draft Jordan Miller.

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Towns/Anderson/Minott
MCD/TP/Miller
Edwards/NAW/Miller
Conley/Nembhard/JMac

Watch on YouTube

LOL Indiana would laugh and walk away.

[Klomp]

I don't want to fall into the same trap as the Cavs initially w/ Lebron, and the Pelicans w/ AD, which was to desperately try to bring in win-now players to impress your star at the expense of the future. We've kinda already done that, but we have an opportunity to undo some of the damage this offseason. What seems to end up happening is the team toiling around the fringes of playoff success, then as that first extension is wrapping up, now you have a declining supporting cast and your star sees a bleak future in front of them.

If I may present a counter to all of this talk about timelines? Timelines lose their importance when the young guy is playing beyond his years.

Was it a mistake for Miami to blow up their timeline by trading away 25-year old Odom and 24-year old Butler to pair 32-year old O'Neal with 23-year old Wade?

[shrink]

Should try to get Andrew Nembhard? IND has starting PG in Haliburton and expensive backup (20 mil in two more remaining years) T.J. McConnell

Nembhard was so good last year, I doubt the Pacers are interested in moving him. However, his ascendency probably means we could get McConnell if we wanted.

McConnell just turned 31, and makes $8.7 next year, and $9.3 ($5 mil guaranteed) the year after that. It’s a lot of money for a third string PG in IND, and a somewhat impalatable price for us as back up PG, especially since we get really expensive that second year. However, if we want a reliable PG for when Conley misses games - and maybe learns to be a stopgap replacement in 2024, we could do worse than TJ.

I’d expect we’d send them Taurean Prince, and get some compensation back from IND for taking on that second year. IND has five picks this draft (7, 26, 29, 50, 55) and won’t want to use them all. I’d propose

Prince + 2025 UTA 2nd for McConnell + #29

I still like keeping Prince since playoff teams need big vet wings, but moving him might give Minott more minutes, and #29 might give us a useful player on a needed cheap contract, if Connolly finds talent with the pick.

[Neeva]

I wanna see how Nemhard does this upcoming season, his rookie year might have been flukey. Think I may prefer Pritchard who seems to be a better shooter and Boston has no room for.

[TimberKat]

Who said Brown was a role player? I said he is a supporting player. Not a foundational piece you can build around like Ant.

Donovan Mitchel didn’t have a season as good as Edwards offensively until he was 24 that’s without mentioning Edwards being a better defender.

I don’t think you realize just how good Edwards is, let alone for his age.

sorry, my mistake on Brown comment. You are right in that I don't recognize Ant's third year is as good as Mitchell's third year. Yes, Ant is younger and may even has the potential to be better than Mitchell. He is not better than Mitchell now. Again, we are talking about potential, and I don't trust potential. It's an opinion and I am in the minority on this one.

32/5/5 against the eventual champions of the league at 21. Donovan Mitchel is just plain bad defensively. Any already is better according to most. The gap will continue to grow because Mitchel will never get better on defense, he isn't interested in that hard work. Ant is built differently and if you can't see that it is o.k. but it makes me question the rest of your takes. Ray Charles can see the difference on the defensive side and that alone makes it a giant win for Ant!

Did you watch as much basketball as Ray did? Again, we are talking now who is better now (not potential). Mitchell made All NBA second team. Is Ant anywhere close to All NBA this year? I watched half of all Cavs games this year and Mitchell’s defense was not bad at all. You should always question my takes. Why don’t you post in the main group and ask non-Wolves fans if Ant is better than Mitchell. Ask Cavs fan how well is Mitchell playing and is his defense bad this year? He may have a bad series vs. NYK but overall he was really good.

[TimberKat]

Should try to get Andrew Nembhard? IND has starting PG in Haliburton and expensive backup (20 mil in two more remaining years) T.J. McConnell

Nembhard was so good last year, I doubt the Pacers are interested in moving him. However, his ascendency probably means we could get McConnell if we wanted.

McConnell just turned 31, and makes $8.7 next year, and $9.3 ($5 mil guaranteed) the year after that. It’s a lot of money for a third string PG in IND, and a somewhat impalatable price for us as back up PG, especially since we get really expensive that second year. However, if we want a reliable PG for when Conley misses games - and maybe learns to be a stopgap replacement in 2024, we could do worse than TJ.

I’d expect we’d send them Taurean Prince, and get some compensation back from IND for taking on that second year. IND has five picks this draft (7, 26, 29, 50, 55) and won’t want to use them all. I’d propose

Prince + 2025 UTA 2nd for McConnell + #29

I still like keeping Prince since playoff teams need big vet wings, but moving him might give Minott more minutes, and #29 might give us a useful player on a needed cheap contract, if Connolly finds talent with the pick.

I don't think Pacers wants Prince. It's more like salary+ 2nd for McConnell.

[shrink]

Should try to get Andrew Nembhard? IND has starting PG in Haliburton and expensive backup (20 mil in two more remaining years) T.J. McConnell

Nembhard was so good last year, I doubt the Pacers are interested in moving him. However, his ascendency probably means we could get McConnell if we wanted.

McConnell just turned 31, and makes $8.7 next year, and $9.3 ($5 mil guaranteed) the year after that. It’s a lot of money for a third string PG in IND, and a somewhat impalatable price for us as back up PG, especially since we get really expensive that second year. However, if we want a reliable PG for when Conley misses games - and maybe learns to be a stopgap replacement in 2024, we could do worse than TJ.

I’d expect we’d send them Taurean Prince, and get some compensation back from IND for taking on that second year. IND has five picks this draft (7, 26, 29, 50, 55) and won’t want to use them all. I’d propose

Prince + 2025 UTA 2nd for McConnell + #29

I still like keeping Prince since playoff teams need big vet wings, but moving him might give Minott more minutes, and #29 might give us a useful player on a needed cheap contract, if Connolly finds talent with the pick.

I don't think Pacers wants Prince. It's more like salary+ 2nd for McConnell.

At worst, it’s expiring salary for a two year deal. But if IND doesn’t want him, it shouldn’t be hard to find a team that does. Teams always want big wings.

[Mamba4Goat]

Nembhard was so good last year, I doubt the Pacers are interested in moving him. However, his ascendency probably means we could get McConnell if we wanted.

McConnell just turned 31, and makes $8.7 next year, and $9.3 ($5 mil guaranteed) the year after that. It’s a lot of money for a third string PG in IND, and a somewhat impalatable price for us as back up PG, especially since we get really expensive that second year. However, if we want a reliable PG for when Conley misses games - and maybe learns to be a stopgap replacement in 2024, we could do worse than TJ.

I’d expect we’d send them Taurean Prince, and get some compensation back from IND for taking on that second year. IND has five picks this draft (7, 26, 29, 50, 55) and won’t want to use them all. I’d propose

Prince + 2025 UTA 2nd for McConnell + #29

I still like keeping Prince since playoff teams need big vet wings, but moving him might give Minott more minutes, and #29 might give us a useful player on a needed cheap contract, if Connolly finds talent with the pick.

I don't think Pacers wants Prince. It's more like salary+ 2nd for McConnell.

At worst, it’s expiring salary for a two year deal. But if IND doesn’t want him, it shouldn’t be hard to find a team that does. Teams always want big wings.

Fwiw I’ve heard Indy is pretty fond of McConnell as a vet mentor and is likely not in any rush to dump his salary. The deal would likely need to give them an actual reason to do it and I don’t think Prince and a 2nd is enough incentive.

[shrink]

I don't think Pacers wants Prince. It's more like salary+ 2nd for McConnell.

At worst, it’s expiring salary for a two year deal. But if IND doesn’t want him, it shouldn’t be hard to find a team that does. Teams always want big wings.

Fwiw I’ve heard Indy is pretty fond of McConnell as a vet mentor and is likely not in any rush to dump his salary. The deal would likely need to give them an actual reason to do it and I don’t think Prince and a 2nd is enough incentive.

I’ve heard McConnell is a vet mentor too. But $18 mil for two years of McConnell as a third string PG in IND is pretty expensive for a vet mentor. Sending him to MIN helps his career, because he likely won’t be getting any healthy DNP-CD’s.