2024 Free Agency

[KGdaBom]

I think he just had a good relationship with Wright and the Spurs.
We pulled the Miller trade with them last offseason.
Trust is important in that kind of job.

I'm guessing not many teams had the intel that the Spurs were willing to come off of 8 for future picks that far out.
Not many teams would have the guts to trade 2 essentially unprotected picks that far out though either.

I wouldn't have the gall to dare make an offer like that. I'd think there's zero chance of it being accepted and would ruin any relationship we had.

In the interview I posted in the rotation thread TC said he had another pick in mind and while he wouldn’t say it what it was, it seemed clear he was getting a high pick either way. He made a comment about how FOs always talk to one another, even if they don’t intend to move a player, they still listen to the offer. TC made an unconventional pitch, which quite frankly isn’t that unconventional now that teams are trading picks 6 or 7 years out as part of star deals more frequently.

I'm almost certain that a first round pick in the current draft has never before been traded for a first round pick 7 years from now. Connelly thought completely outside the box and with powers of persuasion made Brian Wright think it was a good idea. Wright will be out of a job far before that swap does not convey and the pick does.

[younggunsmn]

I'm starting to believe that Connelly is a Jedi and uses Jedi mind tricks in negotiations.
Connelly: You don't need the #8 pick in this years draft
Spurs Wright: No we don't need the #8 pick in this years draft.
Connelly: You will trade the #8 pick to us for a random first round pick 7 years from now and we will bless you with a pick swap 6 years from now. (slowly waves his hand)
Spurs Wright: Yes, we will give you #8 overall for that. (his eyes glazed over in a trance)

I know some of you believe that Jedi's aren't real, but how can you explain this? Blackmail?

I think he just had a good relationship with Wright and the Spurs.
We pulled the Miller trade with them last offseason.
Trust is important in that kind of job.

I'm guessing not many teams had the intel that the Spurs were willing to come off of 8 for future picks that far out.
Not many teams would have the guts to trade 2 essentially unprotected picks that far out though either.

I wouldn't have the gall to dare make an offer like that. I'd think there's zero chance of it being accepted and would ruin any relationship we had.

It was probably more along the lines of, "It might be a little outside the box, but here's what we have left to offer..."

Those picks are also out past the end of Ant's contract, prime or not.
So it's not like they are without risk.
Could end up being really really weak picks and a super bad return for SA, but I think they view them more as trade assets than anything else and I'd honestly be very surprised if San Antonio hasn't moved at least the 2031 1st rounder by then.

[KGdaBom]

I think he just had a good relationship with Wright and the Spurs.
We pulled the Miller trade with them last offseason.
Trust is important in that kind of job.

I'm guessing not many teams had the intel that the Spurs were willing to come off of 8 for future picks that far out.
Not many teams would have the guts to trade 2 essentially unprotected picks that far out though either.

I wouldn't have the gall to dare make an offer like that. I'd think there's zero chance of it being accepted and would ruin any relationship we had.

It was probably more along the lines of, "It might be a little outside the box, but here's what we have left to offer..."

Those picks are also out past the end of Ant's contract, prime or not.
So it's not like they are without risk.
Could end up being really really weak picks and a super bad return for SA, but I think they view them more as trade assets than anything else and I'd honestly be very surprised if San Antonio hasn't moved at least the 2031 1st rounder by then.

Every trade and every draft choice has risk. IMO the risk vs reward of this deal massively favors the Wolves.

[winforlose]

I wouldn't have the gall to dare make an offer like that. I'd think there's zero chance of it being accepted and would ruin any relationship we had.

It was probably more along the lines of, "It might be a little outside the box, but here's what we have left to offer..."

Those picks are also out past the end of Ant's contract, prime or not.
So it's not like they are without risk.
Could end up being really really weak picks and a super bad return for SA, but I think they view them more as trade assets than anything else and I'd honestly be very surprised if San Antonio hasn't moved at least the 2031 1st rounder by then.

Every trade and every draft choice has risk. IMO the risk vs reward of this deal massively favors the Wolves.

Let’s say the Spurs want Markkanen to pair with Wemby. Let’s say the Spurs approach Utah and try to get him. Utah welcomes them in for negotiations but informs them that OKC is also bidding on this particular contract. OKC has a mountain of picks, and a lot of young players to spare. The Spurs are better suited passing along claims to our picks than drafting someone on spec that might help the Jazz. They also clearly didn’t want the money of the 8th pick and couldn’t find a buyer for it that would give them an unprotected pick back. They could in theory get the #2 pick in 2030 and the number #1 pick in 2031 for their pick at 8 in a draft they obviously hated. What if Ant leaves and we suck again, then they win. They bet on our long term prospects sucking, and because they are selling early, they get all the reward with very little risk. Kinda brilliant if you assume they absolutely hated the draft class that was left.

[Klomp]

2. They want to trade in the near future for a star beside Wemby. In the current star market, the best currency is unprotected firsts from good teams projected far enough out when they might be bad teams.

Of course they will be. But Ant's current deal only runs through 2029, which means there is a chance that he is playing elsewhere. Of course I don't see it as likely at the moment, but I think they are smart to essentially buy a lottery ticket just in case.

2: Wolves are very unlikely to be a bad team in Ant's prime

We don't have to be a bad team in order to swap a pick. If they are at 28 and we are at 23, a pick swap still has value for them. Heck, if we are at 29 and they are at 30, they would swap picks.

[KGdaBom]

It was probably more along the lines of, "It might be a little outside the box, but here's what we have left to offer..."

Those picks are also out past the end of Ant's contract, prime or not.
So it's not like they are without risk.
Could end up being really really weak picks and a super bad return for SA, but I think they view them more as trade assets than anything else and I'd honestly be very surprised if San Antonio hasn't moved at least the 2031 1st rounder by then.

Every trade and every draft choice has risk. IMO the risk vs reward of this deal massively favors the Wolves.

Let’s say the Spurs want Markkanen to pair with Wemby. Let’s say the Spurs approach Utah and try to get him. Utah welcomes them in for negotiations but informs them that OKC is also bidding on this particular contract. OKC has a mountain of picks, and a lot of young players to spare. The Spurs are better suited passing along claims to our picks than drafting someone on spec that might help the Jazz. They also clearly didn’t want the money of the 8th pick and couldn’t find a buyer for it that would give them an unprotected pick back. They could in theory get the #2 pick in 2030 and the number #1 pick in 2031 for their pick at 8 in a draft they obviously hated. What if Ant leaves and we suck again, then they win. They bet on our long term prospects sucking, and because they are selling early, they get all the reward with very little risk. Kinda brilliant if you assume they absolutely hated the draft class that was left.

Horrible return for the #8 even if they hated everybody remaining. (they didn't. They made more picks in this years draft) The vast majority of teams trading for picks want them sooner not later. Picks lose value for every year in the future they are. They trade for a pick in next years draft it's worth far more to trade for Markkanen.

[younggunsmn]

It was probably more along the lines of, "It might be a little outside the box, but here's what we have left to offer..."

Those picks are also out past the end of Ant's contract, prime or not.
So it's not like they are without risk.
Could end up being really really weak picks and a super bad return for SA, but I think they view them more as trade assets than anything else and I'd honestly be very surprised if San Antonio hasn't moved at least the 2031 1st rounder by then.

Every trade and every draft choice has risk. IMO the risk vs reward of this deal massively favors the Wolves.

Let’s say the Spurs want Markkanen to pair with Wemby. Let’s say the Spurs approach Utah and try to get him. Utah welcomes them in for negotiations but informs them that OKC is also bidding on this particular contract. OKC has a mountain of picks, and a lot of young players to spare. The Spurs are better suited passing along claims to our picks than drafting someone on spec that might help the Jazz. They also clearly didn’t want the money of the 8th pick and couldn’t find a buyer for it that would give them an unprotected pick back. They could in theory get the #2 pick in 2030 and the number #1 pick in 2031 for their pick at 8 in a draft they obviously hated. What if Ant leaves and we suck again, then they win. They bet on our long term prospects sucking, and because they are selling early, they get all the reward with very little risk. Kinda brilliant if you assume they absolutely hated the draft class that was left.

Yes, trading 8 for future picks keeps the asset liquid unlike if they had taken someone at 8, which is going to start depreciating immediately unless the player breaks out.

Their roster is already littered with former 1st round picks with marginal value.
Sochan, Wesley, Branham,
They didn't think they would be getting a Devin Vassell level contributor with that pick or they would have used it.

[KGdaBom]

2. They want to trade in the near future for a star beside Wemby. In the current star market, the best currency is unprotected firsts from good teams projected far enough out when they might be bad teams.

Of course they will be. But Ant's current deal only runs through 2029, which means there is a chance that he is playing elsewhere. Of course I don't see it as likely at the moment, but I think they are smart to essentially buy a lottery ticket just in case.

2: Wolves are very unlikely to be a bad team in Ant's prime

We don't have to be a bad team in order to swap a pick. If they are at 28 and we are at 23, a pick swap still has value for them. Heck, if we are at 29 and they are at 30, they would swap picks.

The first quote you have attributed to me was not made by me.
However, it's never smart to pay a high price for a lottery ticket.
About the pick swap. Let's say the pick swap has a 33% chance of conveying. Odds are both teams will be very good. The pick swap is likely to be worth very little and could easily be worth nothing.

[KGdaBom]

Every trade and every draft choice has risk. IMO the risk vs reward of this deal massively favors the Wolves.

Let’s say the Spurs want Markkanen to pair with Wemby. Let’s say the Spurs approach Utah and try to get him. Utah welcomes them in for negotiations but informs them that OKC is also bidding on this particular contract. OKC has a mountain of picks, and a lot of young players to spare. The Spurs are better suited passing along claims to our picks than drafting someone on spec that might help the Jazz. They also clearly didn’t want the money of the 8th pick and couldn’t find a buyer for it that would give them an unprotected pick back. They could in theory get the #2 pick in 2030 and the number #1 pick in 2031 for their pick at 8 in a draft they obviously hated. What if Ant leaves and we suck again, then they win. They bet on our long term prospects sucking, and because they are selling early, they get all the reward with very little risk. Kinda brilliant if you assume they absolutely hated the draft class that was left.

Yes, trading 8 for future picks keeps the asset liquid unlike if they had taken someone at 8, which is going to start depreciating immediately unless the player breaks out.

Their roster is already littered with former 1st round picks with marginal value.
Sochan, Wesley, Branham,
They didn't think they would be getting a Devin Vassell level contributor with that pick or they would have used it.

If you don't like anybody remaining than trade for a pick in 25 or 26. Not for a pick in 31. If nobody you like is available in 25 or 26 you can still trade the pick for 31 later.

[younggunsmn]

Every trade and every draft choice has risk. IMO the risk vs reward of this deal massively favors the Wolves.

Let’s say the Spurs want Markkanen to pair with Wemby. Let’s say the Spurs approach Utah and try to get him. Utah welcomes them in for negotiations but informs them that OKC is also bidding on this particular contract. OKC has a mountain of picks, and a lot of young players to spare. The Spurs are better suited passing along claims to our picks than drafting someone on spec that might help the Jazz. They also clearly didn’t want the money of the 8th pick and couldn’t find a buyer for it that would give them an unprotected pick back. They could in theory get the #2 pick in 2030 and the number #1 pick in 2031 for their pick at 8 in a draft they obviously hated. What if Ant leaves and we suck again, then they win. They bet on our long term prospects sucking, and because they are selling early, they get all the reward with very little risk. Kinda brilliant if you assume they absolutely hated the draft class that was left.

Horrible return for the #8 even if they hated everybody remaining. (they didn't. They made more picks in this years draft) The vast majority of teams trading for picks want them sooner not later. Picks lose value for every year in the future they are. They trade for a pick in next years draft it's worth far more to trade for Markkanen.

I get it. Pretty damn disappointing for a Spurs fan.
The key is the unprotected part. 100% certainty it's coming.
You can trade it to another team and they know if and when they are going to get it too.
I don't think there is any way in the world they were getting an unprotected pick in next year's draft though.

But then look at some of the crap returns we've given up 1st rounders for in the past too.
Martell Webster. Chase Budinger.
I like this for SA a helluva lot better than that.

[KGdaBom]

Let’s say the Spurs want Markkanen to pair with Wemby. Let’s say the Spurs approach Utah and try to get him. Utah welcomes them in for negotiations but informs them that OKC is also bidding on this particular contract. OKC has a mountain of picks, and a lot of young players to spare. The Spurs are better suited passing along claims to our picks than drafting someone on spec that might help the Jazz. They also clearly didn’t want the money of the 8th pick and couldn’t find a buyer for it that would give them an unprotected pick back. They could in theory get the #2 pick in 2030 and the number #1 pick in 2031 for their pick at 8 in a draft they obviously hated. What if Ant leaves and we suck again, then they win. They bet on our long term prospects sucking, and because they are selling early, they get all the reward with very little risk. Kinda brilliant if you assume they absolutely hated the draft class that was left.

Horrible return for the #8 even if they hated everybody remaining. (they didn't. They made more picks in this years draft) The vast majority of teams trading for picks want them sooner not later. Picks lose value for every year in the future they are. They trade for a pick in next years draft it's worth far more to trade for Markkanen.

I get it. Pretty damn disappointing for a Spurs fan.
The key is the unprotected part. 100% certainty it's coming. You can trade it to another team and they know when and if they are going to get it too.
I don't think there is any way in the world they were getting an unprotected pick in next year's draft though.

But then look at some of the crap returns we've given up 1st rounders for in the past too.
Martell Webster. Chase Budinger.
I like this for SA a helluva lot better than that.

Hindsight sure. Wouldn't it be great if we could do every draft with hindsight. Without hindsight this trade was just a wing and a prayer for the Spurs. Everybody knows we took them to cleaners. Spurs fans are calling their GM Brian Wrong. This Devil's advocate stuff is ridiculous.

[younggunsmn]

Horrible return for the #8 even if they hated everybody remaining. (they didn't. They made more picks in this years draft) The vast majority of teams trading for picks want them sooner not later. Picks lose value for every year in the future they are. They trade for a pick in next years draft it's worth far more to trade for Markkanen.

I get it. Pretty damn disappointing for a Spurs fan.
The key is the unprotected part. 100% certainty it's coming. You can trade it to another team and they know when and if they are going to get it too.
I don't think there is any way in the world they were getting an unprotected pick in next year's draft though.

But then look at some of the crap returns we've given up 1st rounders for in the past too.
Martell Webster. Chase Budinger.
I like this for SA a helluva lot better than that.

Hindsight sure. Wouldn't it be great if we could do every draft with hindsight. Without hindsight this trade was just a wing and a prayer for the Spurs. Everybody knows we took them to cleaners. Spurs fans are calling their GM Brian Wrong. This Devil's advocate stuff is ridiculous.

I hated the Webster and Budinger trades with an absolute passion right from the start.
I didn't like the value in the Gobert trade, but I think we have a much much much better GM at the helm now and I trust him a helluva lot more than if one of the previous POBOs had traded an unprotected pick 7 years out.

What sucks for Spurs fans is that they might have to wait a very long time to see if it was a good trade.
But I guarantee you if they add a Star player to go with Victor using our picks, those same fans will change their tune pretty fast.

[KGdaBom]

I get it. Pretty damn disappointing for a Spurs fan.
The key is the unprotected part. 100% certainty it's coming. You can trade it to another team and they know when and if they are going to get it too.
I don't think there is any way in the world they were getting an unprotected pick in next year's draft though.

But then look at some of the crap returns we've given up 1st rounders for in the past too.
Martell Webster. Chase Budinger.
I like this for SA a helluva lot better than that.

Hindsight sure. Wouldn't it be great if we could do every draft with hindsight. Without hindsight this trade was just a wing and a prayer for the Spurs. Everybody knows we took them to cleaners. Spurs fans are calling their GM Brian Wrong. This Devil's advocate stuff is ridiculous.

I hated the Webster and Budinger trades with an absolute passion right from the start.
I didn't like the value in the Gobert trade, but I think we have a much much much better GM at the helm now and I trust him a helluva lot more than if one of the previous POBOs had traded an unprotected pick 7 years out.

What sucks for Spurs fans is that they might have to wait a very long time to see if it was a good trade.
But I guarantee you if they add a Star player to go with Victor using our picks, those same fans will change their tune pretty fast.

Yep If IF IF. A lot of the fans will be dead by the time the pick swap conveys (and the GM will almost certainly be gone) if it does and they get the pick. Delayed gratification is one thing, but delaying gratification 6 or 7 years is something the vast majority of people and NBA teams don't want to do.

[winforlose]

Let’s say the Spurs want Markkanen to pair with Wemby. Let’s say the Spurs approach Utah and try to get him. Utah welcomes them in for negotiations but informs them that OKC is also bidding on this particular contract. OKC has a mountain of picks, and a lot of young players to spare. The Spurs are better suited passing along claims to our picks than drafting someone on spec that might help the Jazz. They also clearly didn’t want the money of the 8th pick and couldn’t find a buyer for it that would give them an unprotected pick back. They could in theory get the #2 pick in 2030 and the number #1 pick in 2031 for their pick at 8 in a draft they obviously hated. What if Ant leaves and we suck again, then they win. They bet on our long term prospects sucking, and because they are selling early, they get all the reward with very little risk. Kinda brilliant if you assume they absolutely hated the draft class that was left.

Yes, trading 8 for future picks keeps the asset liquid unlike if they had taken someone at 8, which is going to start depreciating immediately unless the player breaks out.

Their roster is already littered with former 1st round picks with marginal value.
Sochan, Wesley, Branham,
They didn't think they would be getting a Devin Vassell level contributor with that pick or they would have used it.

If you don't like anybody remaining than trade for a pick in 25 or 26. Not for a pick in 31. If nobody you like is available in 25 or 26 you can still trade the pick for 31 later.

Either, the Spurs POBO is an idiot who got swindled, or the picks have more value than care to believe. Both could be true I suppose, but I don’t see how both can be false in this scenario. So when a room full of scouts is telling you not to draft Dillingham because he doesn’t fit your roster, and someone else is offering good value in the distant future, (value that helps next year or even this year if they trade it again,) you take what you can get.

[vtime]

Bertans, Shamet, Poku, Fournier, just a few if the guys being waived. Perhaps the Dozier signing is not the last move.

[KGdaBom]

Yes, trading 8 for future picks keeps the asset liquid unlike if they had taken someone at 8, which is going to start depreciating immediately unless the player breaks out.

Their roster is already littered with former 1st round picks with marginal value.
Sochan, Wesley, Branham,
They didn't think they would be getting a Devin Vassell level contributor with that pick or they would have used it.

If you don't like anybody remaining than trade for a pick in 25 or 26. Not for a pick in 31. If nobody you like is available in 25 or 26 you can still trade the pick for 31 later.

Either, the Spurs POBO is an idiot who got swindled, or the picks have more value than care to believe. Both could be true I suppose, but I don’t see how both can be false in this scenario. So when a room full of scouts is telling you not to draft Dillingham because he doesn’t fit your roster, and someone else is offering good value in the distant future, (value that helps next year or even this year if they trade it again,) you take what you can get.

They should have been able to get a hell of a lot better than that. Their GM is an idiot. A random first round pick 7 years from now is about the equivalent of a high 2nd round pick now I would guess.

[winforlose]

If you don't like anybody remaining than trade for a pick in 25 or 26. Not for a pick in 31. If nobody you like is available in 25 or 26 you can still trade the pick for 31 later.

Either, the Spurs POBO is an idiot who got swindled, or the picks have more value than care to believe. Both could be true I suppose, but I don’t see how both can be false in this scenario. So when a room full of scouts is telling you not to draft Dillingham because he doesn’t fit your roster, and someone else is offering good value in the distant future, (value that helps next year or even this year if they trade it again,) you take what you can get.

They should have been able to get a hell of a lot better than that. Their GM is an idiot. A random first round pick 7 years from now is about the equivalent of a high 2nd round pick now I would guess.

You would be wrong.

[KGdaBom]

Either, the Spurs POBO is an idiot who got swindled, or the picks have more value than care to believe. Both could be true I suppose, but I don’t see how both can be false in this scenario. So when a room full of scouts is telling you not to draft Dillingham because he doesn’t fit your roster, and someone else is offering good value in the distant future, (value that helps next year or even this year if they trade it again,) you take what you can get.

They should have been able to get a hell of a lot better than that. Their GM is an idiot. A random first round pick 7 years from now is about the equivalent of a high 2nd round pick now I would guess.

You would be wrong.

Whatever. It's 7 freaking years from now and likely a pick in the 20s. It has almost no trade value to other teams who don't want to wait 7 years.

[winforlose]

They should have been able to get a hell of a lot better than that. Their GM is an idiot. A random first round pick 7 years from now is about the equivalent of a high 2nd round pick now I would guess.

You would be wrong.

Whatever. It's 7 freaking years from now and likely a pick in the 20s. It has almost no trade value to other teams who don't want to wait 7 years.

A 2nd round pick can only be between slots 31-60. An unprotected first is between slots 1-30. The argument you should be making is that for a GM 7 years is an eternity. Their job security is usually 2-3 years at best (after 2 bad years you’re probably on the hot seat, after 3 let’s just say your behind is on fire.) Pop is unlikely to still be working 7 years so for him this is less about job security and more about health of the franchise. You say the swap and pick will return crap, but what if it returns a #2 overall pick in either year. What if they traded Dillingham for the next Chet Holmgren? Not to mention the pick can still be moved again and will as you say appreciate in value the closer to being used it gets. As for the state of the Wolves in seven years who knows how we look. Bottom line is everyone made a choice and now things are what they are, for better or for worse for both franchises.

[KGdaBom]

You would be wrong.

Whatever. It's 7 freaking years from now and likely a pick in the 20s. It has almost no trade value to other teams who don't want to wait 7 years.

A 2nd round pick can only be between slots 31-60. An unprotected first is between slots 1-30. The argument you should be making is that for a GM 7 years is an eternity. Their job security is usually 2-3 years at best (after 2 bad years you’re probably on the hot seat, after 3 let’s just say your behind is on fire.) Pop is unlikely to still be working 7 years so for him this is less about job security and more about health of the franchise. You say the swap and pick will return crap, but what if it returns a #2 overall pick in either year. What if they traded Dillingham for the next Chet Holmgren? Not to mention the pick can still be moved again and will as you say appreciate in value the closer to being used it gets. As for the state of the Wolves in seven years who knows how we look. Bottom line is everyone made a choice and now things are what they are, for better or for worse for both franchises.

It's horrible return and you know it. You're just playing devil's advocate because you're bored so you want an argument. Honestly the worst trade I've ever seen.
I won't respond to any other posts acting like the Spurs got decent value. Knock yourselves out.