Kevin Durant

[Domejandro]

I'm honestly not that comfortable with doing a Kevin Durant trade involving Rudy Gobert that doesn't incorporate a clear answer to solving the gaping hole left at the Center position. That said, I think all of the Julius Randle funky configurations are a slam dunk. The timeline seems perfect to try a couple seasons with Rudy Gobert and Kevin Durant, and if it doesn't work, Minnesota is reset salary wise after that timeline.

[winforlose]

Yes. Kawhi was entering his last year. Not 120 million, but max money at that time.

1. Leonard was a rookie max.

2. The Raptors were better positioned to win a chip in a one and done rental. We lack roster balance and will have no way to acquire it.

3. After losing Kawhi the Raptors went on a down swing.

4. The Raptors seemed to want to be rid of DDR. By contrast we would be damaging locker room chemistry to inject a locker room cancer.

5. The market for KD is too hot to acquire him without overpaying. Especially now that Bane commanded a haul. Trading for a one year rental of KD was a terrible idea when done cheaply, now you are looking at giving away key assets necessary for Ant’s prime. This is beyond dumb.

Kawhi Leonard was coming off a season where he was functionally injured for the entirety of it (he played nine games in the middle of the season, missing the last 38 games), was publicly clashing with the front office and coaching staff (the Spurs cleared him to play and he flew to New York to not be cleared by his own medical team), and it got so ugly that players-only meetings were conducted where they were begging him to come back and play. It was an extremely ugly situation where he was viewed as a malcontent, there was uncertainty about him returning to form, and he was very clear about the fact that he would not be resigning with any team that traded for him outside of Los Angeles.

Prior to getting Kawhi Leonard, the Toronto Raptors were coming off of a 59 win season where they were swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round. DeMar DeRozan was coming off of a season where he was eighth in MVP voting and Second Team All-NBA, averaging 23/4/5 on 46/31/83 splits. At this point, he was a perennial All-Star, and was beloved by the fanbase. Jakob Poeltl had a solid second season, giving Toronto strong back-up Center minutes. Toronto also kicked in a lightly protected First Round Draft Pick.

I'm sorry, but none of the proposed Minnesota packages exceed (or really match) what Toronto gave up and the risk was significantly higher for them when they made that trade. There was a real fear that Kawhi Leonard would play part of the season, not be fully healthy, and shut himself down like he did the year prior.

As a quick note: The Desmond Bane trade has absolutely zero impact on Kevin Durant's value. It's a RealGM trope to believe that, but the isn't how professional NBA squads analyze trade value, the context of the situations are totally different.

Leonard was a rookie max making 25% not the 35% Durant makes. It was before the 2nd apron when salary was much easier to live with (high tax payment.) Leonard left after a year, and Durant likely does as well.

The risk for us is we are asset poor, and Durant will have little to no resale value. Not only do we give away valuable players/picks, but we don’t fill in the gaps that got us knocked out of the WCF last year.

You can say trade markets are not affected by recent trades, but in the year Gobert moved picks were flying. Last year values were smaller, and now they are exploding again. Call it a trend or a pattern, but NBA trade markets are a market like any other. GMs can and do use the market trend to help set their demand.

[shrink]

I'm honestly not that comfortable with doing a Kevin Durant trade involving Rudy Gobert that doesn't incorporate a clear answer to solving the gaping hole left at the Center position. That said, I think all of the Julius Randle funky configurations are a slam dunk. The timeline seems perfect to try a couple seasons with Rudy Gobert and Kevin Durant, and if it doesn't work, Minnesota is reset salary wise after that timeline.

I completely agree, and I would add that the Naz-Gobert two man ranking is the second best on the team. They have learned to play with each other, and Naz needs him badly.

I think a lineup of (???)-Ant-McDaniels-Durant-Gobert plus Naz is a serious threat to win a ring, with two top 15 offensive players, and two top 15 defensive players. Making a swap like this means trading DiVincenzo early, when I think his value will rise, but I’d take that loss.

[moretins]

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[TimberKat]

OK, we move on and I still think the Towns trade absolutely sucked.

[Klomp]

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Not great.

However, I don't know that it will completely tune out Minnesota's front office. I think Connelly is someone who has a good feel for the price he is willing to pay and doesn't normally budge. I don't think he gets swayed easily by anonymous reports. I'm guessing his offers already considered the fact that he is 37, on an expiring contract, and might not be willing to extend. I don't think he will get into a bidding war if it takes him past what he is willing to spend.

I also think it's worth thinking about the business of basketball. shrink always brings up the importance in big trades of having someone you can market to the fans. Well, there's not much bigger star power out there than Kevin Durant. His jerseys still sell among the best in the NBA, even at 37 and having been on the same team for multiple years. Immediately after the trade, his jersey sales were Nos. 6 and 8 in the first two seasons in Phoenix, after being No. 4 in Brooklyn in his last full season there. As we're thinking of the finances of the second apron and looking to the possibility of a new arena, jersey sales are a big boon to business.

[Neeva]

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Not great.

However, I don't know that it will completely tune out Minnesota's front office. I think Connelly is someone who has a good feel for the price he is willing to pay and doesn't normally budge. I don't think he gets swayed easily by anonymous reports. I'm guessing his offers already considered the fact that he is 37, on an expiring contract, and might not be willing to extend. I don't think he will get into a bidding war if it takes him past what he is willing to spend.

I also think it's worth thinking about the business of basketball. shrink always brings up the importance in big trades of having someone you can market to the fans. Well, there's not much bigger star power out there than Kevin Durant. His jerseys still sell among the best in the NBA, even at 37 and having been on the same team for multiple years. Immediately after the trade, his jersey sales were Nos. 6 and 8 in the first two seasons in Phoenix, after being No. 4 in Brooklyn in his last full season there. As we're thinking of the finances of the second apron and looking to the possibility of a new arena, jersey sales are a big boon to business.

Look we all know whatever move Connelly makes you will defend it to death…

[shrink]

If the Suns are dead set on literally trading Durant at the draft, it would be extremely difficult.

Right now, we are not a second apron team, or even a first apron team. Most people don’t understand this, but you don’t become hardcapped at an apron until you make one of the forbidden transactions, and we made none of them this season. HOWEVER, if do a trade where we take back less than we send out, we’d have to be under the first apron when the trade is completed. And if we combined players so that we sent out more than we took in, we’d have to be under the second apron when the trade is completed.

Right now, MIN is $16.6 over the second apron. To legally do a Durant trade at the deadline, we would need to send out at least $16.6 PLUS $51.2 or $67.8 mil. This would include Gobert ($43.8), because finding salaries to add to Randle ($33) without Rudy in it would be very difficult.

There is also the difficulty involved of displacing enough salary with other teams. For example, suppose Rudy went to PHX, and Randle went to a third team. PHX also can’t afford to take back more salary than they take in, so even if this mysterious third team had perfectly aligned contracts, they could only send $9 mil more to MIN and $7.4 to PHX, taking on $33 while sending out only $16.4. No single team has the cap space at this point of the season to make that a legal trade. There only way possible is to have several other teams added to the deal, to use their available payroll relief, and salary matching rules, to reduce this gap to a legal number!

Fortunately though, I don’t think the Suns will necessarily make the KD trade at the draft, but could instead agree in principle on a deal, but both teams would agree to make it legal when the new season starts.

[BlacJacMac]

Nothing sells more jerseys than "I don't want to be there"...

[RoyceDa59]

He’s gotta go to a real contender at this point who’s ready to compete this season.

I don’t think he’ll net a big return, in particular, I don’t expect a blue chip prospect to be included.

I do think a few picks is fine as the team acquiring him will likely be a top team.

[jpatrick]

I don’t think this is a Kawhi situation. We cannot give many assets up for what will, in all likelihood, be a one-year rental. At this point, I’d even think Randle, DDV, and Dillingham would be too much and that is a package that will get outbid by Miami, SA, Houston.

And could he sign here longterm after a trade? Yeah. But as he doesn’t want to be here, it will likely only happen if we max out his extension. In other works 60m+ year for a 39 and 40 year old Durant, which means we’d have to strip down the rest of the team to stay out of the second apron. Just not worth it.

[guest81]

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Not great.

However, I don't know that it will completely tune out Minnesota's front office. I think Connelly is someone who has a good feel for the price he is willing to pay and doesn't normally budge. I don't think he gets swayed easily by anonymous reports. I'm guessing his offers already considered the fact that he is 37, on an expiring contract, and might not be willing to extend. I don't think he will get into a bidding war if it takes him past what he is willing to spend.

I also think it's worth thinking about the business of basketball. shrink always brings up the importance in big trades of having someone you can market to the fans. Well, there's not much bigger star power out there than Kevin Durant. His jerseys still sell among the best in the NBA, even at 37 and having been on the same team for multiple years. Immediately after the trade, his jersey sales were Nos. 6 and 8 in the first two seasons in Phoenix, after being No. 4 in Brooklyn in his last full season there. As we're thinking of the finances of the second apron and looking to the possibility of a new arena, jersey sales are a big boon to business.

Look we all know whatever move Connelly makes you will defend it to death…

He hasn't made a bad trade yet

[Klomp]

Nothing sells more jerseys than "I don't want to be there"...

That's actually not a terrible point. Kawhi went from being in the Top 12 of jersey sales in his last 3 years in San Antonio to out of the Top 15 in his year in Toronto to back inside the Top 10 in his first year in Los Angeles.

[Klomp]

At this point, I’d even think Randle, DDV, and Dillingham would be too much and that is a package that will get outbid by Miami, SA, Houston.

I think this is my current sticking point, and why I'm not sure we're as out of it as people think. Just because a team has the assets to outbid us doesn't mean they will choose to include all of them. All of the reports so far are that Phoenix hasn't been getting great offers, which lines up with what I am currently seeing on those rosters. If I was in Phoenix's position, I don't think I would be enamored with rebuilding offers where the best veterans offered play the same position as our best player.

[moss_is_1]

Doesn't seem KD is wanting to try to win another ring. Get the most money possible, win games, and play basketball. That's fine. I'd still comfortably give up Randle+ to get him, but im not including Ant, Jaden, Naz, Tsj, #17, Rob, Jaylen Clark, and only including Rudy if there's a legit center option coming back to us.

[fattymcgee]

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Not great.

However, I don't know that it will completely tune out Minnesota's front office. I think Connelly is someone who has a good feel for the price he is willing to pay and doesn't normally budge. I don't think he gets swayed easily by anonymous reports. I'm guessing his offers already considered the fact that he is 37, on an expiring contract, and might not be willing to extend. I don't think he will get into a bidding war if it takes him past what he is willing to spend.

I also think it's worth thinking about the business of basketball. shrink always brings up the importance in big trades of having someone you can market to the fans. Well, there's not much bigger star power out there than Kevin Durant. His jerseys still sell among the best in the NBA, even at 37 and having been on the same team for multiple years. Immediately after the trade, his jersey sales were Nos. 6 and 8 in the first two seasons in Phoenix, after being No. 4 in Brooklyn in his last full season there. As we're thinking of the finances of the second apron and looking to the possibility of a new arena, jersey sales are a big boon to business.

Look we all know whatever move Connelly makes you will defend it to death…

But can you blame him?

He built the roster for the 2023 champions.
He got us to the Western Conference finals last year which was the first time in 20 years AND only the second time in Twolves history!
Then he got us there again this year.
Seems like he's doing a banger of a job to me.

[Klomp]

Look we all know whatever move Connelly makes you will defend it to death…

I know it seems like I'm defending it, especially when I am pushing back against so many who strongly oppose it.

I think I would categorize my posting style on RealGM as trying to understand and then portray the "why" behind transactions and other decisions made within the organization, and using that to try to predict what I think could happen in the future. I don't agree with every move, but I always try to understand why decisions were made rather than just blindly bashing them without that understanding.

[shrink]

Look we all know whatever move Connelly makes you will defend it to death…

I know it seems like I'm defending it, especially when I am pushing back against so many who strongly oppose it.

I think I would categorize my posting style on RealGM as trying to understand and then portray the "why" behind transactions and other decisions made within the organization, and using that to try to predict what I think could happen in the future. I don't agree with every move, but I always try to understand why decisions were made rather than just blindly bashing them without that understanding.

KlompGPT > ChatGPT

[Klomp]

I will say that if Kevin Durant gets traded to Minnesota, you probably won't see much in the way of strong rumours prior to the news hitting. Both the Rudy Gobert and the Karl-Anthony Towns trades happened with little lead-up.

Tim Connelly's front office doesn't leak much, so it is kind of difficult to gauge what Minnesota is up to, other than the fact that they are aggressive.

Interestingly enough, I've thought the same thing many times over recent weeks. However, when you go back and look, steam about the Rudy Gobert interest in Minnesota was first mentioned on June 21, 10 days before the trade was first reported. And how long had we heard ideas about a Randle for Towns trade framework, even though everyone said it wasn't enough value on Minnesota's side at that time?!

[frankenwolf]

Look we all know whatever move Connelly makes you will defend it to death…

I know it seems like I'm defending it, especially when I am pushing back against so many who strongly oppose it.

I think I would categorize my posting style on RealGM as trying to understand and then portray the "why" behind transactions and other decisions made within the organization, and using that to try to predict what I think could happen in the future. I don't agree with every move, but I always try to understand why decisions were made rather than just blindly bashing them without that understanding.

IDK Klomp, just randomly bashing stuff seems the Internets favorite pasttime. Who needs facts??