The Naz Reid Thread

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

Minnesota’s decision to trade Karl-Anthony Towns to New York isn’t just because of what Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a protected first bring in return. It’s about Naz Reid. Within the Timberwolves organization, there’s a belief that the gap between Towns and Reid is a lot smaller than some think.

“They think he’s pretty much 90 percent of what KAT did for them," one Eastern Conference general manager said. “And they’re probably gonna be proven right.”

Towns is better in a vacuum and more proven as a four-time All-Star, but he’s about to turn 29 and is just beginning a four-year, $220.4 million deal. Reid is 25 and will make only $13.9 million coming off a season in which he won Sixth Man of the Year. In the minutes Reid shared with Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert, he averaged 19.8 points per 36 minutes on 45 percent shooting from 3, which are nearly identical numbers to what KAT did as the starter. Even if Reid isn’t as great as Towns individually, he’s made in the same mold as a big man who can drain 3s, create plays with the ball and effectively defend in different roles.

Randle brings something dramatically different than Towns and Reid as a bruising big man who can attack off the dribble and provide elite rebounding. Plus, he’s gone through spurts playing excellent defense, with the physicality to guard the interior and the quickness to slide on the perimeter. Randle has been a zero in his postseason career. But he doesn’t suck. He’s a two-time All-NBA player and now Minnesota will try to get the best out of him again.

The Timberwolves have more options to find their best lineups now, so that Edwards can always be optimized no matter the matchup. Everyone is rightfully talking about the Gobert-Randle lineup, which may lack spacing unless Randle is draining 3s. But they don’t need to go with that. Wolves head coach Chris Finch can roll with Gobert-Reid, giving them a similar look as last season. Or they can go with a small-ball look with four perimeter guys around Gobert, thanks to the DiVincenzo addition. They can go with Reid and Randle for more perimeter skill. Any one of the bigs could be alone out there for spurts too, giving Minnesota the ability to take any shape and dictate the way a playoff series could play out.

If the Timberwolves weren’t going to win it all last season, they never were with that core. Risks needed to be taken. That’s why, on draft night, Minnesota dealt a first-round swap in 2030 and one future first in 2031 for a spark plug/scoring point guard in Rob Dillingham. And that’s ultimately why the Towns trade was made too. It was the theme of the summer to recalibrate the team around Edwards by betting that Randle’s physicality, DiVincenzo’s shooting and Reid’s talent make them better.

[shrink]

I agree on Reid, but Kevin O’Conner left some pretty big holes in this article.

“Randle brings elite rebounding that Towns doesn’t?” Randle has a career average of 9.4 rebounds. Towns has averaged 10.8.

And “if they didn’t win it all last year, they never were with that core?” Ant and Jaden aren’t going to improve? Dillingham adds nothing? The whole team didn’t gain much-needed playoff experience?

Kevin O’Connor has a good reputation, but he also has that typical blind spot for understanding the Wolves, that is shared by those east coasters. “Randle’s an elite rebounder, because I saw it when he played the Celtics,” doesn’t mean KAT isn’t good at it too. The new New York fans assume it though, because they heard Towns was soft. At 10.85 RPG, Towns is fourth among active players (Gobert is #2), and #7 in playoff RPG (Gobert is #4) at 10.22 RPG.

[Domejandro]

The gap between Kevin O'Connor's reputation and his actual basketball knowledge is arguably the highest in the NBA media landscape, if I'm being kind of a jerk about it.

[minimus]

Randle has a career average of 9.4 rebounds. Towns has averaged 10.8.

When Randle boxes out, he is an elite rebounder for PF (9.2). Still only Giannis averages more rebounds as PF. (11.5)

Towns at PF is an average rebounder (8.3), because he plays next to Gobert (12.9). In NYK at С he will have more opportunities, where Anunoby and Bridges are not strongest rebounders (4.4 and 4.5). All hopes for unique rebounding abilities of Hart (8.3)

[Klomp]

Randle has a career average of 9.4 rebounds. Towns has averaged 10.8.

When Randle boxes out, he is an elite rebounder for PF (9.2). Still only Giannis averages more rebounds as PF. (11.5)

Towns at PF is an average rebounder (8.3), because he plays next to Gobert (12.9). In NYK at С he will have more opportunities, where Anunoby and Bridges are not strongest rebounders (4.4 and 4.5). All hopes for unique rebounding abilities of Hart (8.3)

Yeah I think this is the distinction he was attempting to make.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Am I the only one getting annoyed by Naz? He is shooting well but that’s all he do. Totally inefficient Im défense, poor rebounding… if our financial situation make us to have to choose between him and Randle, after 4 games I would go for Randle.

[minimus]

Am I the only one getting annoyed by Naz?

Naz has probably the biggest change of role this season. He went from playing SF/PF to PF next to Gobert and C anchoring second unit defense next to Randle. Today he was exposed as live ball passer, had 5TO, but he grabbed 9 defensive rebounds against Gafford/Lively and defended Luka well on perimeter.

He has a lot room to improve as backside defender and passer, but he has talent and work discipline to get better.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

Am I the only one getting annoyed by Naz?

Naz has probably the biggest change of role this season. He went from playing SF/PF to PF next to Gobert and C anchoring second unit defense next to Randle. Today he was exposed as live ball passer, had 5TO, but he grabbed 9 defensive rebounds against Gafford/Lively and defended Luka well on perimeter.

He has a lot room to improve as backside defender and passer, but he has talent and work discipline to get better.

You right about his capacity to improve. My concern is ( As we have salary cap issue) is what to do with him and Randle? I have been pleasantly surprised by Randle, not on the defensive side as he is not good at the moment but he is really good offensively. And we need that. ANT cannot carry the team alone, he is too young ( see today the clutch time). And the starter around him are not good offensively ( Rudy), not consistent yet ( Jaden) and not score oriented ( Mike has never been a scorer).
If you can keep both, let's go, but if we can't, which one would you choose?

[minimus]

Am I the only one getting annoyed by Naz?

Naz has probably the biggest change of role this season. He went from playing SF/PF to PF next to Gobert and C anchoring second unit defense next to Randle. Today he was exposed as live ball passer, had 5TO, but he grabbed 9 defensive rebounds against Gafford/Lively and defended Luka well on perimeter.

He has a lot room to improve as backside defender and passer, but he has talent and work discipline to get better.

You right about his capacity to improve. My concern is ( As we have salary cap issue) is what to do with him and Randle? I have been pleasantly surprised by Randle, not on the defensive side as he is not good at the moment but he is really good offensively. And we need that. ANT cannot carry the team alone, he is too young ( see today the clutch time). And the starter around him are not good offensively ( Rudy), not consistent yet ( Jaden) and not score oriented ( Mike has never been a scorer).
If you can keep both, let's go, but if we can't, which one would you choose?

It is too early to panic or scapegoat someone. There are a few ongoing dynamics that will affect basketball decision that our FO will make in order to improve this roster. MIN traded Towns and unsurprisingly (but surprisingly for non MIN fans) we lost some defensive juice because we lost A LOT of size. What was expected to improve team offense, but it is clear that it will take some time, DDV has not been shooting well, but he is running our offense a lot when Conley is out or when NAW is playing off-ball. DDV currently has 13 assists and 6 turnovers. So this team is kind of expected to struggle because they need to recreate their identity as group, but here are several improvement areas:

- Ant and Randle synergy. Here is example

Read on Twitter

- Gobert and Randle connection. Gobert is not used to recieve dumpoff passes under the rim, he needs to incorporate some ball, eye fakes

Read on Twitter

- McDaniels in smallball PF role

Read on Twitter

- more designed actions for Reid

Read on Twitter

Obviously more predefined actions for DDV, more team effort on 50/50 balls, defensive rebounding and suffocating opponent fast breaks

[BlacJacMac]

Am I the only one getting annoyed by Naz? He is shooting well but that’s all he do. Totally inefficient Im défense, poor rebounding… if our financial situation make us to have to choose between him and Randle, after 4 games I would go for Randle.

Naz is averaging 11 REB/36 and has a DEF REB% of 30.4. Both career highs by a mile.

[Colbinii]

- more designed actions for Reid

Read on Twitter

This is the one I commented on in the game thread. I absolutely love this play, especially with Gobert involed.

As the team becomes more comfortably, I can see them utilizing Gobert even more on off-ball screens, especially with both Reid and DDV in the action.

When DDV/Reid/Gobert are all in the action, it makes for an extremely difficult play to defend. Do you switch everything? Then you end up with Gobert rolling to the rim with a guard defending him. Do you only switch DDV/Reid in order to defend their 40%+ 3P Shot? How can a defense routinely communicate this action? What if you switch DDV/Reid and Reid Cuts to the basket with Gobert's man still away from the basket on Gobert and Reid with a smaller guard on him?

Now, the crux of this play involves our ball-handler to be able to assess, read and execute the play. I'm not sure ANT is capable of doing this on a consistent basis and I trust Randle more than ANT on ball here. I'd trust Conley the most, but this is where Ingles comes into play for our rotation as his passing chops are exceptional. Another player who could pick up on this quickly is Dilly.

[minimus]

Read on Twitter

The next feasible area for improvement is passing/decision making

[Devilzsidewalk]

I want them to feature Naz and DDV more and more. On a given night, I think the odds are good for one of them catching fire from 3.

[cmoss84]

A couple nicknames to offer while I'm nice and high:
"Feliz Nazidad" (this one is dangerous...NOT pronounced the German way)
"Ma Nazzy Trois"

[minimus]

Has Naz 3pt % dropped because he is missing Gobert screens and Towns gravity when he is playing with Randle who is not a good screener nor stretching big?

[wolves_89]

Does Naz 3pt % dropped because he is missing Gobert screens and Towns gravity when he is playing with Randle who is not a good screener nor stretching big?

No, I think Naz is a somewhat streaky shoot and he is currently in a really cold stretch. Through his first 15 games he was shooting 42% on 3s, but since has been shooting 26% with the quality of his shots looking about the same.

[shrink]

Does Naz 3pt % dropped because he is missing Gobert screens and Towns gravity when he is playing with Randle who is not a good screener nor stretching big?

No, I think Naz is a somewhat streaky shoot and he is currently in a really cold stretch. Through his first 15 games he was shooting 42% on 3s, but since has been shooting 26% with the quality of his shots looking about the same.

I agree. 3P% can be one of the most variable stats over small samples.

I’d also point out that Randle tends to increase other players’ 3P% because his gravity pulls defenders away from the three point line, and he’s also good at passing for kick outs. I may be mis-remembering this, but I think I heard on a podcast that Randle’s teammates before he got to MIN were shooting like 56% on Randle kick outs for catch-and-shoot three’s. But you may be able to find stats on this.

I agree he’s not as good a screener as Gobert, and may never be good at it, but Rudy is like one of the best in the NBA at it. But you may be right, not getting Rudy screens can’t be helping that percentage.

[winforlose]

We are a good way into the season, so I figured I would ask, assuming Naz opts out, what is the number we expect to need to pay him to keep him? So far his numbers are pretty consistent with last season, except for a significant drop in 3 point percentage on the same volume. Last year his becoming a starter for a number of games raised his minutes and numbers to 6MOY status. Assuming Naz maintains but does not improve upon those numbers, what is he worth?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/reidna01.html

[BlacJacMac]

I think its probably close to what he's making now. Not more.

He still rebounds like a wing and doesn't really defend the perimeter or the paint.

And last year's 3pt shooting is looking more like an outlier, as he's much closer to the previous 3 years.

If you take away his "folk hero status", is he a guy you'd consider part of your core or would you look to be replacing/upgrading him?

[winforlose]

I think its probably close to what he's making now. Not more.

He still rebounds like a wing and doesn't really defend the perimeter or the paint.

And last year's 3pt shooting is looking more like an outlier, as he's much closer to the previous 3 years.

If you take away his "folk hero status", is he a guy you'd consider part of your core or would you look to be replacing/upgrading him?

I want to sidestep part of this for a moment and add additional context. Naz is making $15,022,464 with an opt in, and the non tax payer MLE is $14,099,520. That means that to get a substantial raise, it must come from cap space. Who has a great enough need at PF, enough cap space, and the proper roster hole to pursue Naz. SAC comes to mind, but they have Sochan, and Naz is a major defensive downgrade from him. Who else?

To your point, I would be very curious to see his defensive metrics without Rudy. He really is more of a 3/4 than 4/5 this year and last year. But his rebounding is substandard for a starting 4, and his assisting is substandard for a starting 3.