Trade Talk (Part Seven)

[Howard Cosell]

Ooooh boy…

76ers fans holding out hope a Simmons trade can fetch them Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Zach LaVine or Bradley Beal.

Unless 76ers want to let go of other assets those players will not be available to Morey in a Simmons trade.

[Neeva]

They are at the deluded stage...

[Howard Cosell]

A team wanting Simmons to the point where they would give 76ers a credible offer is a squad with enough offensive juice to fold in Simmons after trade.

Bulls, Wizards and Thunder not giving up their 1A offensive player to get Simmons.

Portland is a threat with McCollum.

Golden State might have the assets Toronto would be interested in for Raptors to do S&T Lowry deal with 76ers in 3-team deal.

But 76ers getting LaVine, SGA or Beal is more than a reach….it’s delusional.

[youngcrev]

They are the deluded stage...

As opposed to thinking you could get Simmons in a deal based around DLo or Beasley...?

I think most Sixers fans fully understand that Simmons value has taken a major hit (which may end up being the reason that they don't trade him).

Sorry, was just randomly checking the thread for trade ideas, I realize having lurkers from other teams can be annoying.

[Neeva]

Another failed playoffs for scared to shoot Simmons ( can’t avoid the inevitable)! And you will be lucky to get Beasley.:

[Howard Cosell]

They are the deluded stage...

As opposed to thinking you could get Simmons in a deal based around DLo or Beasley...?

I think most Sixers fans fully understand that Simmons value has taken a major hit (which may end up being the reason that they don't trade him).

Sorry, was just randomly checking the thread for trade ideas, I realize having lurkers from other teams can be annoying.

Twolves deal with Philly/Simmons would be based on enough assets being sent out to Philly and 3rd team to get 76ers a win-now player (Lowry) along with Beasley and at least 1 more FRP to 76ers.

Right now 76ers fans are overvaluing Simmons on the trade market.

[Merc_Porto]

Just give Ben 2 months into the new season in a Sixers uniform and the talks are going to be so different to a point they are not going to trade him. But what about the perfomances in the playoffs?

Like many other players that struggled in the playoffs (PG, Giannis, etc) Ben is going to figure out. He's that special...

As for the rumor about a Portland - Philly deal and a swap between Ben and CJ, oh boy. What a steal that would be for Portland.

[SO_MONEY]

They are the deluded stage...

As opposed to thinking you could get Simmons in a deal based around DLo or Beasley...?

I think most Sixers fans fully understand that Simmons value has taken a major hit (which may end up being the reason that they don't trade him).

Sorry, was just randomly checking the thread for trade ideas, I realize having lurkers from other teams can be annoying.

I don't think I would trade shooting on a good contract for the exact opposite. Philly might be delusional if they think teams will be jumping over themselves to give up positive value that is more useful. I think a swap of bad contracts, Simmons plus assets for a good player, filler/expirings plus a 1st (lottery protected) or not trading him are the options available to Philly.

[Neeva]

Just give Ben 2 months into the new season in a Sixers uniform and the talks are going to be so different to a point they are not going to trade him. But what about the perfomances in the playoffs?

Like many other players that struggled in the playoffs (PG, Giannis, etc) Ben is going to figure out. He's that special...

As for the rumor about a Portland - Philly deal and a swap between Ben and CJ, oh boy. What a steal that would be for Portland.

Sixers fans hope that to be the case every year... Pg and Giannis had figured it out by the time they were Simmon’s age.

[IceManBK1]

https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/league-execs-think-a-ben-simmons-deal-must-return-multiple-first-round-picks

OK Philly take Beasley and Rubio and 2 heavily protected 1st and run with it.

[gandlogo]

Max contract for the fourth or fifth option on offense? No thanks.

[shangrila]

They are the deluded stage...

As opposed to thinking you could get Simmons in a deal based around DLo or Beasley...?

I think most Sixers fans fully understand that Simmons value has taken a major hit (which may end up being the reason that they don't trade him).

Sorry, was just randomly checking the thread for trade ideas, I realize having lurkers from other teams can be annoying.

All good. Specific fandoms are always going to be biased anyway, so disagreements are natural.

I do think that a trade like Rubio, Beasley, maybe Juancho and two 1sts for Simmons could be good for both teams, although I imagine there's haggling to be done from both sides. But it ultimately comes down to what the Sixers want to do and how they value Simmons. Is he a #1 type of guy that you can build around? Can they get that value back for him?

The deal I mentioned would help to balance out the roster a lot more (get same passing and similar defence from Rubio but add high efficiency+volume shooting in Beasley) but it would, in theory, be diluting the talent as well. So I guess it's up to the Sixers. I can't imagine Simmons can return a bonafide star on his own anymore. But maybe there is a better offer than what I've mentioned.

[Neeva]

[tweet][/tweet]

Max contract for the fourth or fifth option on offense? No thanks.

Playoffs have shown that defensive specialists just are not as hot a commodity as a good shooters on half cheaper contracts tbh.

[Baseline81]

Playoffs have shown that defensive specialists just are not as hot a commodity as a good shooters on half cheaper contracts tbh.

Again, how often have the Wolves made the playoffs the last, I don't know, 15 years?

[Neeva]

Who cares about the past.

[younggunsmn]

I wrote this elsewhere - some thoughts on Ben Simmons.

1. On the Trade Board, we polled his value as “what pick could he get back in this draft?” The median was between the 6 and 7, actually 46 voted 6 or higher, and 46 voted 7 or lower. The mean is lower still - some thought he wasn’t even worth a lottery pick. As we know, it only takes one (usually two) bidders to get a high price, but the valuation is very divided.

2. I am firmly in the lower half. I realize what a ridiculously good defensive player Simmons is, but unless he can improve his offense (and we have never seen that so far), he will always be able to be schemed against, especially in a playoff series. On top of this, he also needs to regain his confidence after a nightmare series. I think that’s impossible in PHI, where fans will boo him, Embiid threw him under the bus, and Doc didn’t stick up for him. Some PHI fans want to wait and see if his trade value rebounds after the finals, but most feel it could get lower, and PHI can’t risk starting the next season with him roster.

3. I think PHI is forced to trade Simmons, but keep in mind, Simmons is on that massive contract, for four more years. He is not going to be worth a giant trade return unless he can regain his confidence. I don’t like to admit it, but MIN might be the best place for that. It doesn’t have a media spotlight, and the fans here would embrace any addition of talent. I have heard Towns and Simmons are friends (KAT allegedly lobbied behind the scenes to keep Ben from getting punished for the choking incident) and Ben is even closer with DLo, who he played high school ball with. On top of that, MIN has its own “guard whisperer” in Ricky Rubio, who Donovan Mitchell, Devon Booker, and Anthony Edwards all credit for their big leaps in productivity. Which of these players that would still be on the roster after a trade would all depend on which package MIN created to match Simmons salary.

4. I am no fan of DLo, but the concept of him really fits PHI. They need someone who can create, who can run the pick-and-roll, who can shoot, and who they can put the ball in his hands in the final two minutes. Even DLo’s horrible defense is less of a problem for MIN. DLo for Tobias Harris makes some sense for PHI, if the Sixers believe that he could help fix Simmons. Simmons has less value to PHI than most teams, and DLo has more value to PHI than to most teams - this is the tinder that makes for good trades. And with all the available PG’s this summer in sign-and-trades and trade, I don’t think Russell is irreplaceable for us this year.

5. While I am lower on the price of Simmons than most, I think at least one pick would be required. However, I think MIN has other assets that PHI would want to replace a pick - namely Jaden McDaniels and/or Naz Reid. Yes, they aren’t vets, but they are certainly rotation pieces, and most importantly for the Sixers- they are cheap. I don’t want to give up McDaniels, but I think that using the recently drafted players is a beneficial churn for Rosas. The one talent he has demonstrated is that he can get value out of the draft - 5 of 6 players are probably worth more than their slot. I think the team can get better around the edges by keeping picks and trading these types of players to open up minutes and roles for the next young players Rosas can acquire

Some interesting outside the box ideas here to unpack shrink.

1. I think most are probably underestimating SImmons trade value, even with the poor postseason.
His upside is still that of a franchise cornerstone, and he does everything besides shoot at not only an above average, but elite level.
The injuries are scarier for me than the playoff performance, and they aren't that far in the rearviewmirror, and if his back goes bad again it could turn any trade for him into a disaster.

2. His fit on that team and in a doc rivers offense in particular was terrible, and on the whole I think he's been poorly utilized on that end. Embiid is not the floor stretching threat that KAT is, and when he is in the paint it hurts SImmons ability to slash.
We're talking about a career 56% FG shooter, he's a very effective paint finisher, which is the other half of the 5 out strategy Rosas has been trying to implement that gets overshadowed by all the 3 point shooting talk.
I think improving the FT shooting is more important than developing a 3 point shot, because his strength is as a ballhandling slasher, which is comparatively rare in the league. There are a lot of unique playsets a creative guy like Finch could design for him with guys like Ant and Kat to work with. I just don't think his potential on that end is even close to unlocked being 6-10+ and able to handle the ball and run the floor the way he does.

3. I'd like to keep Rubio around as another plus defender and high BBIQ guy, and I don't see him being a Morey type player.
So you've got either Russell or Beasley+juancho+Culver as the preferred salary match.
Phi is going to want an aplha guard in return, and/or a pick haul. Beasley doesnt move the needle enough, Russell fits the type but the talent isnt in the same ballpark as SImmons. A third option is a team somehow acquiring both Harris and SImmons and giving PHI a soft reboot, but that's 70+ mllion in outgoing salary to match. Morey doesnt HAVE to trade Simmons at this point.
I'd put the odds of Morey making a bad deal at pretty slim. I think people will be surprised at the return if he gets traded.
He also has a 15% trade kicker which he has the option to waive, which gives Simmons some leverage in his destination.

4. Tobias Harris is an absolute nonstarter for me, both because of the contract and his fit as an undersized nonrebounding PF.
We already have the same type player in Juancho and we are paying him 1/5 the salary. D-Lo is interesting because he is the type of player who would fit with Embiid, I just think his trade value is too far into the toilet at this point to be the centerpiece of a Ben Simmons trade. Then you have the chemistry and friendship issues you create by trading him away. And with KAT and Embiid having beef and Kat and D-Lo being tight...

5. Phi has their own McDaniels clone in thybulle, and Reid as a backup on a team friendly deal still doesn't have a whole lot of value.
I'd be curious to see what Morey thinks of Bolmaro. If we can't offer an Alpha player, they are going to want draft picks and more draft picks. Which is why its sad Rosas traded so many away. 7+36 this year plus 2024 and 2026 2nds.
Say Rosas never made the D-lo trade, how much better is an offer starting with Wiggins+7+36 than an offer of just Russell?
That should tell you everything you need to know about just how bad that trade was.

I think you're looking at offering:
1. Russell + Top 5 protected 1st
2. Beasley+Juancho+Culver+ top 5 protected 1st.

and I think Morey probably demands more.
Do you add Bolmaro or another lottery protected 1st that reverts to 2 2nds if it doesn't transfer?

It would be a big risk. Bad drafting/lack of draft picks was a key reason KG never won big here.
But KAT's also reaching the age where he needs to start winning. By the time that draft pick would be good, KAT might be 30.

[SO_MONEY]

I wrote this elsewhere - some thoughts on Ben Simmons.

1. On the Trade Board, we polled his value as “what pick could he get back in this draft?” The median was between the 6 and 7, actually 46 voted 6 or higher, and 46 voted 7 or lower. The mean is lower still - some thought he wasn’t even worth a lottery pick. As we know, it only takes one (usually two) bidders to get a high price, but the valuation is very divided.

2. I am firmly in the lower half. I realize what a ridiculously good defensive player Simmons is, but unless he can improve his offense (and we have never seen that so far), he will always be able to be schemed against, especially in a playoff series. On top of this, he also needs to regain his confidence after a nightmare series. I think that’s impossible in PHI, where fans will boo him, Embiid threw him under the bus, and Doc didn’t stick up for him. Some PHI fans want to wait and see if his trade value rebounds after the finals, but most feel it could get lower, and PHI can’t risk starting the next season with him roster.

3. I think PHI is forced to trade Simmons, but keep in mind, Simmons is on that massive contract, for four more years. He is not going to be worth a giant trade return unless he can regain his confidence. I don’t like to admit it, but MIN might be the best place for that. It doesn’t have a media spotlight, and the fans here would embrace any addition of talent. I have heard Towns and Simmons are friends (KAT allegedly lobbied behind the scenes to keep Ben from getting punished for the choking incident) and Ben is even closer with DLo, who he played high school ball with. On top of that, MIN has its own “guard whisperer” in Ricky Rubio, who Donovan Mitchell, Devon Booker, and Anthony Edwards all credit for their big leaps in productivity. Which of these players that would still be on the roster after a trade would all depend on which package MIN created to match Simmons salary.

4. I am no fan of DLo, but the concept of him really fits PHI. They need someone who can create, who can run the pick-and-roll, who can shoot, and who they can put the ball in his hands in the final two minutes. Even DLo’s horrible defense is less of a problem for MIN. DLo for Tobias Harris makes some sense for PHI, if the Sixers believe that he could help fix Simmons. Simmons has less value to PHI than most teams, and DLo has more value to PHI than to most teams - this is the tinder that makes for good trades. And with all the available PG’s this summer in sign-and-trades and trade, I don’t think Russell is irreplaceable for us this year.

5. While I am lower on the price of Simmons than most, I think at least one pick would be required. However, I think MIN has other assets that PHI would want to replace a pick - namely Jaden McDaniels and/or Naz Reid. Yes, they aren’t vets, but they are certainly rotation pieces, and most importantly for the Sixers- they are cheap. I don’t want to give up McDaniels, but I think that using the recently drafted players is a beneficial churn for Rosas. The one talent he has demonstrated is that he can get value out of the draft - 5 of 6 players are probably worth more than their slot. I think the team can get better around the edges by keeping picks and trading these types of players to open up minutes and roles for the next young players Rosas can acquire

Some interesting outside the box ideas here to unpack shrink.

1. I think most are probably underestimating SImmons trade value, even with the poor postseason.
His upside is still that of a franchise cornerstone, and he does everything besides shoot at not only an above average, but elite level.
The injuries are scarier for me than the playoff performance, and they aren't that far in the rearviewmirror, and if his back goes bad again it could turn any trade for him into a disaster.

2. His fit on that team and in a doc rivers offense in particular was terrible, and on the whole I think he's been poorly utilized on that end. Embiid is not the floor stretching threat that KAT is, and when he is in the paint it hurts SImmons ability to slash.
We're talking about a career 56% FG shooter, he's a very effective paint finisher, which is the other half of the 5 out strategy Rosas has been trying to implement that gets overshadowed by all the 3 point shooting talk.
I think improving the FT shooting is more important than developing a 3 point shot, because his strength is as a ballhandling slasher, which is comparatively rare in the league. There are a lot of unique playsets a creative guy like Finch could design for him with guys like Ant and Kat to work with. I just don't think his potential on that end is even close to unlocked being 6-10+ and able to handle the ball and run the floor the way he does.

3. I'd like to keep Rubio around as another plus defender and high BBIQ guy, and I don't see him being a Morey type player.
So you've got either Russell or Beasley+juancho+Culver as the preferred salary match.
Phi is going to want an aplha guard in return, and/or a pick haul. Beasley doesnt move the needle enough, Russell fits the type but the talent isnt in the same ballpark as SImmons. A third option is a team somehow acquiring both Harris and SImmons and giving PHI a soft reboot, but that's 70+ mllion in outgoing salary to match. Morey doesnt HAVE to trade Simmons at this point.
I'd put the odds of Morey making a bad deal at pretty slim. I think people will be surprised at the return if he gets traded.
He also has a 15% trade kicker which he has the option to waive, which gives Simmons some leverage in his destination.

4. Tobias Harris is an absolute nonstarter for me, both because of the contract and his fit as an undersized nonrebounding PF.
We already have the same type player in Juancho and we are paying him 1/5 the salary. D-Lo is interesting because he is the type of player who would fit with Embiid, I just think his trade value is too far into the toilet at this point to be the centerpiece of a Ben Simmons trade. Then you have the chemistry and friendship issues you create by trading him away. And with KAT and Embiid having beef and Kat and D-Lo being tight...

5. Phi has their own McDaniels clone in thybulle, and Reid as a backup on a team friendly deal still doesn't have a whole lot of value.
I'd be curious to see what Morey thinks of Bolmaro. If we can't offer an Alpha player, they are going to want draft picks and more draft picks. Which is why its sad Rosas traded so many away. 7+36 this year plus 2024 and 2026 2nds.
Say Rosas never made the D-lo trade, how much better is an offer starting with Wiggins+7+36 than an offer of just Russell?
That should tell you everything you need to know about just how bad that trade was.

I think you're looking at offering:
1. Russell + Top 5 protected 1st
2. Beasley+Juancho+Culver+ top 5 protected 1st.

and I think Morey probably demands more.
Do you add Bolmaro or another lottery protected 1st that reverts to 2 2nds if it doesn't transfer?

It would be a big risk. Bad drafting/lack of draft picks was a key reason KG never won big here.
But KAT's also reaching the age where he needs to start winning. By the time that draft pick would be good, KAT might be 30.

He is making 35mil on average, he is a bad contract and it is only wishful thinking that he has upside at this point as demonstrated by no improvement or regression. You are overvaluing him. There are 5 options Philly has: 1. Swap bad contracts, 2. Take back an even worse contract for incentive (see option 4), 3. Simmons plus assets for a good player, 4. Filler/expirings and a 1st or equivalent (mid to late or lottery protected)...best case 2 later firsts in such a deal, 5. Don't trade him.

[shrink]

I personally don’t value Simmons highly, with injury risk, confidence issues, and because he hasn’t been able to improve his shooting in the last several years. His contract, which is greater than the typical max, magnifies that risk. But I still think we will see a trade where PHI gets a good package.

The issue here is that the final price for Simmons won’t be the consensus, or the average. PHI only cares about the highest offer. Now there are certainly teams out there that don’t like Simmons (HOU for sure, refusing to take him in a Harden deal over a pretty mediocre package). However, Dane Moore talked to two NBA execs, and they said that if KAT and Edwards aren’t in a deal, it would take two picks (which would be sent elsewhere to get PHI win-now talent). Some GM’s — maybe even Rosas — need to get some wins or they may lose their job, and he would be more helpful (at least, in the regular season), than future picks.

Anyway, if 27 teams think he is low value, and 2 teams think he is great, those two will try to outbid each other, and PHI will get a good return. I think this is the likely end result - PHI will trade him this summer, and get a decent return.

I just hope MIN isn’t the team that overpays for him.

[Merc_Porto]

Now there are certainly teams out there that don’t like Simmons (HOU for sure, refusing to take him in a Harden deal over a pretty mediocre package).

Wasn't about Houston liking Simmons or not.
Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta refused to send him to Daryl Morey's 76ers. Everybody knows that.

[SO_MONEY]

I personally don’t value Simmons highly, with injury risk, confidence issues, and because he hasn’t been able to improve his shooting in the last several years. His contract, which is greater than the typical max, magnifies that risk. But I still think we will see a trade where PHI gets a good package.

The issue here is that the final price for Simmons won’t be the consensus, or the average. PHI only cares about the highest offer. Now there are certainly teams out there that don’t like Simmons (HOU for sure, refusing to take him in a Harden deal over a pretty mediocre package). However, Dane Moore talked to two NBA execs, and they said that if KAT and Edwards aren’t in a deal, it would take two picks (which would be sent elsewhere to get PHI win-now talent). Some GM’s — maybe even Rosas — need to get some wins or they may lose their job, and he would be more helpful (at least, in the regular season), than future picks.

Anyway, if 27 teams think he is low value, and 2 teams think he is great, those two will try to outbid each other, and PHI will get a good return. I think this is the likely end result - PHI will trade him this summer, and get a decent return.

I just hope MIN isn’t the team that overpays for him.

Who is going to cripple their team with that contract? I don't see it. You might see a "name" for a "name", but no team is going to give up any actual positive value. A late first or two (late or lottery protected) and Cap relief, maybe a TPE is the best they can really hope for. It is a shooter's league and he just doesn't fit anywhere on the court or contact wise. Philly knows this, that is why they are trading him.

If you see up to two late firsts and filler as positive value then I am with you. I think the Wolves would do it (if they are willing to go into the LUX) and be one of the few teams in that range, because we have scores and shooting, but that is only parting with the picks and filler, no young pieces, no Beasley or sacrificing a strength you need to have him on your team. Otherwise, instead of firsts they may dangle Mcdaniels and/or Reid and filler, but I think Mcdaniels is a keeper, Reid and a lottery protected first or two maybe, maybe... The point being these are not blockbuster offers they will be getting from teams.

Sure, it is possible you might have one or two teams who via a combination of either having a plethora of picks and/or a willingness to go into the LUX might beat the consensus, but if they are not interested... offers are going to be pretty ugly. You will see most teams will not see him as anything more than a high priced reclamation project. So his value hinges on one or two teams and if they don't like him for them, the next tier of offers is going to drop of substantially. I am not banking on the one or two teams who could afford to actually put together sweetheart packages wanting him, the will actually target other players in trade because they can and know it. GS is really the only real threat I think.