Rotation thread 2024/2025

[frankenwolf]

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I'm not completely convinced that Naz doesn't fall into this category too. He's just such a weird player. He's basically a giant SF that doesn't have the rebounding or defense of a PF or C. But he's crazily effective in a role usually manned by SGs or Combo Guards.

My gut says he's not a starter on a contender, but he is a really valuable piece still.

Plus it would be a massive PR hit if we move/lose him...

Yep, after I made my rotation outline above, I second-guessed myself about Reid. He's probably the most difficult player on the team to pin down what the team would do, because of the fan-favorite status and his cheaper price tag compared to the starting bigs at the moment.

Is prime Naz equivalent to prime KAT?

No

[winforlose]

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Yep, after I made my rotation outline above, I second-guessed myself about Reid. He's probably the most difficult player on the team to pin down what the team would do, because of the fan-favorite status and his cheaper price tag compared to the starting bigs at the moment.

Is prime Naz equivalent to prime KAT?

No

In what ways do you expect prime Naz to fall short of prime KAT? Understanding that KAT is in his prime now, and Naz is 2-3 years away.

[BlacJacMac]

[instagram][/instagram]

I'm not completely convinced that Naz doesn't fall into this category too. He's just such a weird player. He's basically a giant SF that doesn't have the rebounding or defense of a PF or C. But he's crazily effective in a role usually manned by SGs or Combo Guards.

My gut says he's not a starter on a contender, but he is a really valuable piece still.

Plus it would be a massive PR hit if we move/lose him...

Yep, after I made my rotation outline above, I second-guessed myself about Reid. He's probably the most difficult player on the team to pin down what the team would do, because of the fan-favorite status and his cheaper price tag compared to the starting bigs at the moment.

Is prime Naz equivalent to prime KAT?

No. Not at all.

KAT is a much more complete offensive player, light years better as a rebounder and a significantly better defender.

The one place that Naz has the edge is he makes lightning fast decisions. He's always either going to shoot, drive or give up the ball immediately upon getting it. There is never any hesitation or probing. Now, he doesn't always make the right decision, but he's as decisive as anyone in the game.

I wish KAT had more of that. Because he's a true 3-level scorer. He has a ton of post moves that he really hasn't used in years as well as a solid mid-range. But he's also sacrificed a ton of offense to be a team player. So we're really not getting all of KAT.

KAT had an up and down playoff. But it was mostly up before he got his (already injured) knee taken out late in the Denver series. He wasn't the same player after that. He was gutting it out on 1 leg through the Dallas series.

Naz got exposed a bit in the Playoffs. The rebounding was awful. And outside of a handful of absolute highlight blocks, he was a mess on defense. And his 3 ball deserted him for most of the postseason.

Maybe Prime Naz is 75% of Prime KAT. And that's pretty good. But that last 25% is the most valuable/rare thing in the NBA. Its the difference between a really good player and a star.

[Klomp]

I'm not completely convinced that Naz doesn't fall into this category too. He's just such a weird player. He's basically a giant SF that doesn't have the rebounding or defense of a PF or C. But he's crazily effective in a role usually manned by SGs or Combo Guards.

My gut says he's not a starter on a contender, but he is a really valuable piece still.

Plus it would be a massive PR hit if we move/lose him...

Yep, after I made my rotation outline above, I second-guessed myself about Reid. He's probably the most difficult player on the team to pin down what the team would do, because of the fan-favorite status and his cheaper price tag compared to the starting bigs at the moment.

Is prime Naz equivalent to prime KAT?

I think I'm starting to really understand you. I think you rate "potential" so strongly that it leads you to overrate young players at times. We're seeing it with your desire to basically push anyone under 24 in to the rotation; we saw it with starting the poll on the trade board comparing trade values of McDaniels and Markkanen; we're seeing it here with this question.

Reid will probably not be a "better player" than Towns at any point in his career. However, considering his skill set/play style and price tag now and down the road, he might be the smarter choice to choose for your team.

[winforlose]

Yep, after I made my rotation outline above, I second-guessed myself about Reid. He's probably the most difficult player on the team to pin down what the team would do, because of the fan-favorite status and his cheaper price tag compared to the starting bigs at the moment.

Is prime Naz equivalent to prime KAT?

I think I'm starting to really understand you. I think you rate "potential" so strongly that it leads you to overrate young players at times. We're seeing it with your desire to basically push anyone under 24 in to the rotation; we saw it with starting the poll on the trade board comparing trade values of McDaniels and Markkanen; we're seeing it here with this question.

Reid will probably not be a "better player" than Towns at any point in his career. However, considering his skill set/play style and price tag now and down the road, he might be the smarter choice to choose for your team.

I think there is some truth to this. But I also think the gap between the truth and error needs addressing.

Lauri Markkanen has never played a playoff game. You might ask why that matters, but remember the struggles Karl had in the playoffs compared to the regular season in past years. Lauri Markkanen has never been a top 3 player on a winning team. He has two years of great stats and looks to have made a leap, but that leap is not fully real. Meanwhile Jaden showed flashes of 20 PPG in the playoffs with lights out defense against elite guards. He made Devin Booker and MPJ play way off their games. Jaden is also improving every year, and on a much better contract rhan Lauri will be. People ignored the total picture in favor of a win now mindset, but that isn’t always the case in trades. Look at the Sabonis for Hali deal, or PG for SGA. Jaden is a much more proven commodity than LM and he is still improving whereas Markkanen is in his prime and likely at his apex.

As for pushing the young guys, I fear we are going to lose talent as we go. If this is true, you need to develop talent behind them to take over. You saw Denver do it last year and they were right. Jingles is likely not gonna be here next year and if he is I doubt you will want him to play. Getting Miller to the point where we can consider replacing Naz is therefore essential to our bargaining power, trade options, ect… The goal should always be maximizing minutes to the development players while avoiding compromising winning.

[Klomp]

As for pushing the young guys, I fear we are going to lose talent as we go. If this is true, you need to develop talent behind them to take over. You saw Denver do it last year and they were right. Jingles is likely not gonna be here next year and if he is I doubt you will want him to play. Getting Miller to the point where we can consider replacing Naz is therefore essential to our bargaining power, trade options, ect… The goal should always be maximizing minutes to the development players while avoiding compromising winning.

But is it really smart to force that development? Did Finch make a mistake by not playing the 22-year old Moore ahead of the 25-year old Alexander-Walker?

I expect the players to get time once they are ready. If they are never ready, then find someone else who is.

[frankenwolf]

[instagram][/instagram]

Is prime Naz equivalent to prime KAT?

No

In what ways do you expect prime Naz to fall short of prime KAT? Understanding that KAT is in his prime now, and Naz is 2-3 years away.

Per BlackJacMac:

KAT is a much more complete offensive player, light years better as a rebounder and a significantly better defender.

The one place that Naz has the edge is he makes lightning fast decisions. He's always either going to shoot, drive or give up the ball immediately upon getting it. There is never any hesitation or probing. Now, he doesn't always make the right decision, but he's as decisive as anyone in the game.

I wish KAT had more of that. Because he's a true 3-level scorer. He has a ton of post moves that he really hasn't used in years as well as a solid mid-range. But he's also sacrificed a ton of offense to be a team player. So we're really not getting all of KAT.

KAT had an up and down playoff. But it was mostly up before he got his (already injured) knee taken out late in the Denver series. He wasn't the same player after that. He was gutting it out on 1 leg through the Dallas series.

Naz got exposed a bit in the Playoffs. The rebounding was awful. And outside of a handful of absolute highlight blocks, he was a mess on defense. And his 3 ball deserted him for most of the postseason.

Maybe Prime Naz is 75% of Prime KAT. And that's pretty good. But that last 25% is the most valuable/rare thing in the NBA. Its the difference between a really good player and a star.

I could not say it any better.

[winforlose]

As for pushing the young guys, I fear we are going to lose talent as we go. If this is true, you need to develop talent behind them to take over. You saw Denver do it last year and they were right. Jingles is likely not gonna be here next year and if he is I doubt you will want him to play. Getting Miller to the point where we can consider replacing Naz is therefore essential to our bargaining power, trade options, ect… The goal should always be maximizing minutes to the development players while avoiding compromising winning.

But is it really smart to force that development? Did Finch make a mistake by not playing the 22-year old Moore ahead of the 25-year old Alexander-Walker?

I expect the players to get time once they are ready. If they are never ready, then find someone else who is.

There are two ways to look at it. The first is from the Utah perspective. If you’re a tanking team trying to develop a young group with no regard for winning, then you will play a Moore until he develops or busts. If your a winning team then you play the best players when necessary and the development guys when you can. The problem with your example is NAW is still developing as well. You don’t look at minutes for NAW as taking away from Moore, Minott, ect… Kyle is a different story. Kyle was wasted minutes because he was a bad fit with the units he was playing with, not likely to stay on the team going forward, and already in his prime. If you have a guy who is past his prime like Mike or Jingles, now you need to balance their contribution to winning against the limits of their body. In Mike’s case maybe you rest him more than you want to, so you have him when you need him. That means more of a gamble on youth. Jingles is not elite, he is not well rounded, and he is not getting any younger. You only use when you need him, anything more than that is a waste of minutes. You only need him when people are unavailable or people are not capable. So, who is capable among TSJ, Minott, Miller, and maybe some of the two ways?

Edit to add: forget to address the value of continuity. When guys play together they get comfortable with each other and both in the short term and long term their play together gets better. Think of Naz and JMAC as an example of this. When you have a player unlikely to back vs a player likely to be back, the likely to be back player has an inherent advantage.

[Klomp]

Edit to add: forget to address the value of continuity. When guys play together they get comfortable with each other and both in the short term and long term their play together gets better. Think of Naz and JMAC as an example of this. When you have a player unlikely to back vs a player likely to be back, the likely to be back player has an inherent advantage.

I don't think any team brings back their whole unit year-over-year. Turnover is expected and a reality of life in the NBA. Joe Ingles is a connector who makes others better on the court.

[winforlose]

Edit to add: forget to address the value of continuity. When guys play together they get comfortable with each other and both in the short term and long term their play together gets better. Think of Naz and JMAC as an example of this. When you have a player unlikely to back vs a player likely to be back, the likely to be back player has an inherent advantage.

I don't think any team brings back their whole unit year-over-year. Turnover is expected and a reality of life in the NBA. Joe Ingles is a connector who makes others better on the court.

1. I never mentioned their whole unit, you did.

2. You never addressed the top part which was written in response to you.

3. Jingles is gonna play with us at most one more year. So every minute you play him instead of someone who might be here for 4-5 years you are not developing the continuity. Again this is not dispositive, but it is a factor to consider.

[BlacJacMac]

Edit to add: forget to address the value of continuity. When guys play together they get comfortable with each other and both in the short term and long term their play together gets better. Think of Naz and JMAC as an example of this. When you have a player unlikely to back vs a player likely to be back, the likely to be back player has an inherent advantage.

I don't think any team brings back their whole unit year-over-year. Turnover is expected and a reality of life in the NBA. Joe Ingles is a connector who makes others better on the court.

1. I never mentioned their whole unit, you did.

2. You never addressed the top part which was written in response to you.

3. Jingles is gonna play with us at most one more year. So every minute you play him instead of someone who might be here for 4-5 years you are not developing the continuity. Again this is not dispositive, but it is a factor to consider.

You also might win a championship...

[Nick K]

I think Shannon will be earning minutes this year. He is 24 [or will be at the start of the season in ~3 months], he has NBA Skills and Size while fitting a role on our team.

I also think there is going to be a different approach to the new rookies [Dillingham and Shannon] as both are far more NBA ready than Miller/Minott/Clark are/were. Bringing them along as fringe rotation guys is going to be important to them and to our depth. Ingles isn't really a player you want in the post-season, Shannon on the other hand is and can be a non-negative in a playoff rotation.

I still expect Ingles to get more run during the RS than Shannon, but Shannon is definitely going to be a 10-15 MPG guy for a majority of the season.

This is very possible. I do think Shannon could be in the rotation at some point this season, but I don't think it comes at Ingles' expense.

I think we also need to consider the chance that Alexander-Walker could be traded at the deadline. I think we should target draft compensation rather than a rotation player, which would allow Shannon to enter the rotation at that point.

I think Shannon could play at NAW's expense. I love Shannon going downhill on that 2nd unit. Dilly, Shannon, Ingles, Reid etc on that 2nd unit should give us a scoring punch that will win us a lot of games.

[BlacJacMac]

I think Shannon will be earning minutes this year. He is 24 [or will be at the start of the season in ~3 months], he has NBA Skills and Size while fitting a role on our team.

I also think there is going to be a different approach to the new rookies [Dillingham and Shannon] as both are far more NBA ready than Miller/Minott/Clark are/were. Bringing them along as fringe rotation guys is going to be important to them and to our depth. Ingles isn't really a player you want in the post-season, Shannon on the other hand is and can be a non-negative in a playoff rotation.

I still expect Ingles to get more run during the RS than Shannon, but Shannon is definitely going to be a 10-15 MPG guy for a majority of the season.

This is very possible. I do think Shannon could be in the rotation at some point this season, but I don't think it comes at Ingles' expense.

I think we also need to consider the chance that Alexander-Walker could be traded at the deadline. I think we should target draft compensation rather than a rotation player, which would allow Shannon to enter the rotation at that point.

I think Shannon could play at NAW's expense. I love Shannon going downhill on that 2nd unit. Dilly, Shannon, Ingles, Reid etc on that 2nd unit should give us a scoring punch that will win us a lot of games.

They better have Gobert at Center.

[winforlose]

I don't think any team brings back their whole unit year-over-year. Turnover is expected and a reality of life in the NBA. Joe Ingles is a connector who makes others better on the court.

1. I never mentioned their whole unit, you did.

2. You never addressed the top part which was written in response to you.

3. Jingles is gonna play with us at most one more year. So every minute you play him instead of someone who might be here for 4-5 years you are not developing the continuity. Again this is not dispositive, but it is a factor to consider.

You also might win a championship...

So can we agree that you believe Ingles is essential for us to win a championship. Moreover does that mean that you believe Ingles getting hurt precludes it? I mean I take a lot of **** for talking about 8-12 so it’s only fair that you commit to your beliefs as well.

[BlacJacMac]

1. I never mentioned their whole unit, you did.

2. You never addressed the top part which was written in response to you.

3. Jingles is gonna play with us at most one more year. So every minute you play him instead of someone who might be here for 4-5 years you are not developing the continuity. Again this is not dispositive, but it is a factor to consider.

You also might win a championship...

So can we agree that you believe Ingles is essential for us to win a championship. Moreover does that mean that you believe Ingles getting hurt precludes it? I mean I take a lot of **** for talking about 8-12 so it’s only fair that you commit to your beliefs as well.

No. I'm not saying any of that. My only point is if we play better with Ingles than with Miller, its not automatically a waste of a year. If playing Ingles gives us a better chance at a championship, or going deeper in the Playoffs, then play him.

You can contribute to a title without being "essential". You can also even win a title if a key bench player gets hurt.

I also think having Ingles on the floor will benefit the long-term growth of our young guys (and I'm including Ant and McDaniels in that group).

Its not as black and white as you want to make it out to be.

[winforlose]

You also might win a championship...

So can we agree that you believe Ingles is essential for us to win a championship. Moreover does that mean that you believe Ingles getting hurt precludes it? I mean I take a lot of **** for talking about 8-12 so it’s only fair that you commit to your beliefs as well.

No. I'm not saying any of that. My only point is if we play better with Ingles than with Miller, its not automatically a waste of a year. If playing Ingles gives us a better chance at a championship, or going deeper in the Playoffs, then play him.

You can contribute to a title without being "essential". You can also even win a title if a key bench player gets hurt.

I also think having Ingles on the floor will benefit the long-term growth of our young guys (and I'm including Ant and McDaniels in that group).

Its not as black and white as you want to make it out to be.

You should listen to the new Dane Moore pod. Kyle makes a lot of my points and I think coming from someone other than me, you might believe it. He points out that if big changes happen next year we might be dependent on the young guys to play key minutes if we are going to contend. To that end getting the ready now is essential to our long term planning and long term survival. This is not to say you must play guys who are not ready. But if they are ready, they should have preference over guys who are short term and past their prime.

[BlacJacMac]

So can we agree that you believe Ingles is essential for us to win a championship. Moreover does that mean that you believe Ingles getting hurt precludes it? I mean I take a lot of **** for talking about 8-12 so it’s only fair that you commit to your beliefs as well.

No. I'm not saying any of that. My only point is if we play better with Ingles than with Miller, its not automatically a waste of a year. If playing Ingles gives us a better chance at a championship, or going deeper in the Playoffs, then play him.

You can contribute to a title without being "essential". You can also even win a title if a key bench player gets hurt.

I also think having Ingles on the floor will benefit the long-term growth of our young guys (and I'm including Ant and McDaniels in that group).

Its not as black and white as you want to make it out to be.

You should listen to the new Dane Moore pod. Kyle makes a lot of my points and I think coming from someone other than me, you might believe it. He points out that if big changes happen next year we might be dependent on the young guys to play key minutes if we are going to contend. To that end getting the ready now is essential to our long term planning and long term survival. This is not to say you must play guys who are not ready. But if they are ready, they should have preference over guys who are short term and past their prime.

I'm not disagreeing with that. I have many posts saying I expect Dillingham and Shannon to be in the rotation. SInce the draft I've been predicting TSJ could be NAW's replacement. And I've been much more gung-ho about Dillingham playing than you have.

This conversation is about Ingles vs Miller and/or Minott. Apples and oranges.

[Klomp]

You should listen to the new Dane Moore pod. Kyle makes a lot of my points and I think coming from someone other than me, you might believe it. He points out that if big changes happen next year we might be dependent on the young guys to play key minutes if we are going to contend. To that end getting the ready now is essential to our long term planning and long term survival. This is not to say you must play guys who are not ready. But if they are ready, they should have preference over guys who are short term and past their prime.

Like I asked in the Ingles thread:

Who are the guys who are more important to develop? Is it more important to get improvement from Miller and Minott or to get improvement from guys already in the rotation like Edwards, McDaniels and Dillingham?

Did Denver make a mistake by prioritizing the development of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic over the development of Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, and Jarred Vanderbilt?

And yes...I listened to the podcast, and I disagreed with him (which doesn't happen much).

[Klomp]

Another thought exercise:

The benefit of young guys on cheap deals is the money you can save on the rotation. But choosing to play Minott or Miller over Ingles isn't saving any money. Ingles is on a minimum. There is no lack of money management by playing him over the young guys.

[winforlose]

You should listen to the new Dane Moore pod. Kyle makes a lot of my points and I think coming from someone other than me, you might believe it. He points out that if big changes happen next year we might be dependent on the young guys to play key minutes if we are going to contend. To that end getting the ready now is essential to our long term planning and long term survival. This is not to say you must play guys who are not ready. But if they are ready, they should have preference over guys who are short term and past their prime.

Like I asked in the Ingles thread:

Who are the guys who are more important to develop? Is it more important to get improvement from Miller and Minott or to get improvement from guys already in the rotation like Edwards, McDaniels and Dillingham?

Did Denver make a mistake by prioritizing the development of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic over the development of Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangomez, and Jarred Vanderbilt?

And yes...I listened to the podcast, and I disagreed with him (which doesn't happen much).

Help me out here, Dane said that Jingles has a worse turnover rate than Kyle, doesn’t play defense well, and is essentially just a floor spacer. If Miller can also floor space and you can play Miller with Conley/NAW/Naz/Karl/Miller then what is the downside? Or if that lineup doesn’t work for you how about RD/Ant/Naz/Miller/Rudy? Again if Miller can shoot the 3 and defend what is it about him that somehow stunts Ant and Jaden? Or more specifically how does playing with Jingles cause them to develop? Does that mean if Jaden and Jingles don’t share the floor that Finch did something horribly wrong?