Round 1: LAL

[TimberKat]

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I hate late starts, that is one way the league favors Lakers

[minimus]

Head coach J.J. Redick has relied heavily on one centerless lineup in particular. The most frequently used five-man combination in the last ten games has been Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Dorian Finney-Smith and Rui Hachimura.

According to the NBA’s tracking data, the unit boasts a +18.6 net rating and an impressive 124.9 offensive rating throughout 13 games.

It looks like MIN will be tested against smallball lineup a lot.

[Klomp]

Head coach J.J. Redick has relied heavily on one centerless lineup in particular. The most frequently used five-man combination in the last ten games has been Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Dorian Finney-Smith and Rui Hachimura.

According to the NBA’s tracking data, the unit boasts a +18.6 net rating and an impressive 124.9 offensive rating throughout 13 games.

It looks like MIN will be tested against smallball lineup a lot.

Jaxson Hayes is their only real "big man". LeBron is the second biggest player in the rotation.

[Klomp]

I am supremely confident in the Timberwolves for the first 46 minutes of games. But that's not what will decide how this series will go.

[Klomp]

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[Dewey]

Very difficult to defeat leboy and luka and the whistle

[shrink]

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Got to get LeBron his rest, so the NBA schedules long gaps between games, to help ratings by giving the Lakers an edge

[Calinks]

It feel so damn good to be the team that dethrones the Lakers. The hype they are getting is off the charts. People really think this will be a walk in the park for them. Let's stun the world!

[Loaf_of_bread]

Realistically this series is a complete unknown. Either team could destroy the other, or could be a bloodbath going down to the last shot of game 7.

We will find out soon..

[thinktank]

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Why this strategy never worked against Doncic? McDaniels is indeed trying to stay attached to Doncic hip, and MIN has Gobert who is elite rim protector, and I would argue if anyone says that Brook Lopez is more mobile than Rudy.

I think it’s worth a shot for a stretch. Luka wants to get to the step back three so stand to his left.

And a two is less than a three. So if it doesn’t work, it’s a little less risk.

[minimus]

Mainstream-like media narrative echoed the usual Gobert hate when Doncic hit a clutch, tough stepback three over Rudy.

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But I think the real problem in the last WCF was the pick-and-roll situations, where Gobert or Towns had to guard two opponents. Lively and Gafford were elite at catching passes and finishing — too mobile or too big for our defenders to handle consistently.

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In those situations, Gobert and Towns were forced to choose between protecting the rim or contesting open threes / slasher — leading to a lot of defensive possessions where both were out of position to do either properly.

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Some thoughts:

1) BOS pre-switched Tatum onto Gafford, so the actual screen came from Derrick Jones Jr. — not a lob threat. Tatum is big and disciplined enough to box out Gafford. Should Finch try something similar by putting McDaniels on Hayes?
MIN actually started the 27/2 game with McDaniels guarding Hayes.

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2) Outside of Hayes, LAL don’t really have a true rim-runner. So the first priority should be taking away the roll man — hard, disciplined tags. Let Gobert handle 1-on-1s.

I might sound delusional, but this is where I feel Jalen Clark might be an ideal fit defensively. Compared to NAW, McDaniels, and DDV, Clark is bigger, stronger, and has great situational awareness and discipline. He can tag and box out bigger guys.

I hated how MIN defended the Double Drag action in the last playoffs vs DAL. They ran it to target Conley — and he just couldn’t handle it.

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3) BOS did a much better job keeping KP in the paint as a rim protector, while Horford was elite guarding the perimeter. Can Reid or Randle replicate that and keep Luka outside?

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I think Dane Moore’s point — that a team’s identity reflects its leaders — will be more relevant than ever in this series. MIN will get swept if:
- Randle doesn’t box out or gets caught on backdoor cuts

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- Edwards doesn’t focus on small details like pre-switches, boxouts, tagging rollers, and playing physical, disciplined defense on Luka — the way Tatum and Brown did in the Finals

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[TimberKat]

@minimus great stuff. I think Clark will play a much larger role in the series too. Ant is still very sloppy on D, especially when he is not guarding the ball handler. Just wondering, if we double Luka immediately in a set, made him pass to someone early so he becomes more of a spot up man or getting the ball much later in the clock, does that help? Ultimately, we need to rotate properly to contain him.

[frankenwolf]

IDK, Luka isn't superman. Neither is LeBron. Both very good ball players, but if the Wolves can make Luka play some defense and wear him down, we can win this series easily. Personally, I see the Wolves winning in 5.

[thinktank]

@minimus great stuff. I think Clark will play a much larger role in the series too. Ant is still very sloppy on D, especially when he is not guarding the ball handler. Just wondering, if we double Luka immediately in a set, made him pass to someone early so he becomes more of a spot up man or getting the ball much later in the clock, does that help? Ultimately, we need to rotate properly to contain him.

On a Lebron / JJ podcast, they went through the numbers re Doncic approaches.

Blitz fared better than switch or stay (ie drop).

Makes sense. Make someone else beat you one on one rather then let Luka make choices in switch or drop.

[TimberKat]

@minimus great stuff. I think Clark will play a much larger role in the series too. Ant is still very sloppy on D, especially when he is not guarding the ball handler. Just wondering, if we double Luka immediately in a set, made him pass to someone early so he becomes more of a spot up man or getting the ball much later in the clock, does that help? Ultimately, we need to rotate properly to contain him.

On a Lebron / JJ podcast, they went through the numbers re Doncic approaches.

Blitz fared better than switch or stay (ie drop).

Makes sense. Make someone else beat you one on one rather then let Luka make choices in switch or drop.

I find it ironic that it is on the JJ/LeBron podcast. Can we still trust it

[life_saver]

This lineup of Ant-NAW-Donte-Randle-NAZ so far this season has been the best lineup offensively this season. Also if you replace Randle with Gobert, then it becomes the 3rd best lineup defensively this season. The team has good amount of lineup versatility...its on Finch to adapt and use them effectively.

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[Klomp]

There will be a large IQ disparity on the court for most of the series. That is one potential downfall.

[TimberKat]

There will be a large IQ disparity on the court for most of the series. That is one potential downfall.

Are talking about JJ vs Finch and JJ being more basketball savvy?

[Calinks]

There will be a large IQ disparity on the court for most of the series. That is one potential downfall.

Yea, that is my biggest worry. The talent doesn't scare me but our team is boneheaded and Luke and Lebron could definitely pick us apart strategically. That's a major concern.

[Neeva]

Connelly has continued to add higher basketball iq players like DDV and Conley etc and the team still makes dumb mistakes… because they take after the head coach.