The D'Angelo Russell Thread

[shrink]

However, realistically, MIN isn’t playing with 13 signed players, or signing all rookies (although one may come from using the 2022 NYK pick) for those spots. It would also be wise to keep the MLE ($11.4) available to add talent. Also, most teams want to start the season with a little wiggle room under the lux for 10-day signings etc. Let’s say $2 mil. So realistically, let’s say the five spots are NYK pick $1, MLE $11, two vet mins $2, $2, and DLo. That puts him at $24.

As you can see, the big factor is how much of the MLE MIN wants to use to add talent, or put that money in a DLo contract.

Giving DLO a new contract (or extension) starting at $24M would pretty much be the same starting money as the Wiggins extension. Another option would be to only use part of the MLE and start a new DLO deal at $30M with decreasing salary (over 4 years that would be the exact same money as the Wiggins extension but with the money progression reversed).

I agree. And this $24 number probably shows why MIN is interested in Conley, since that’s exactly what he makes next year. DLo could say, “Hey! I’ll be better than Conley next year! Pay me more!” He’s probably right, but is DLo better than Conley PLUS an MLE player? I’m not so sure.

The other thing complicating a UTA deal is that the Jazz would need to include another player to salary match. Most of the Jazz players that could be used have player options, except for the guys we traded them, who are ineligible to be traded. We don’t want a guy like Rudy Gay opting into his $6.5 player option, cutting into our MLE. A couple possibility it’s

DLo and Forbes for Conley and Nickeil Alexander Walker. NAW is a $5 mil expiring. The deal adds $5.5 to the Jazz payroll, so we’d have to pay for that

DLo and Forbes for Conley and Jordan Clarkson. Clarkson has a $14 mil player option that he may decline. That’s not too bad either way - keeping him is probably as good as we could do with our MLE anyway. With this deal though, Ainge would probably ask us for more assets. Would you send them Naz, knowing Clarkson could be a rental?

[cmoss84]

How does Rozier compare to Dlo? Would a trade such as Rozier and Oubre for Dlo and Nowell make sense for both teams? Roziers contract matches up with the above numbers as well...

[shrink]

How does Rozier compare to Dlo? Would a trade such as Rozier and Oubre for Dlo and Nowell make sense for both teams? Roziers contract matches up with the above numbers as well...

It works financially next year ($21.5, Oubre expiring), but Rozier is paid $25 and $26.6 the following two years, when we are in lux hell.

It’s possible, but it’s a short term solution and we would need to be shopping Rozier from the start of next season. Rozier’s deal is questionable as it is, but certainly not someone you want to pay lux taxes on.

[wolves_89]

However, realistically, MIN isn’t playing with 13 signed players, or signing all rookies (although one may come from using the 2022 NYK pick) for those spots. It would also be wise to keep the MLE ($11.4) available to add talent. Also, most teams want to start the season with a little wiggle room under the lux for 10-day signings etc. Let’s say $2 mil. So realistically, let’s say the five spots are NYK pick $1, MLE $11, two vet mins $2, $2, and DLo. That puts him at $24.

As you can see, the big factor is how much of the MLE MIN wants to use to add talent, or put that money in a DLo contract.

Giving DLO a new contract (or extension) starting at $24M would pretty much be the same starting money as the Wiggins extension. Another option would be to only use part of the MLE and start a new DLO deal at $30M with decreasing salary (over 4 years that would be the exact same money as the Wiggins extension but with the money progression reversed).

I agree. And this $24 number probably shows why MIN is interested in Conley, since that’s exactly what he makes next year. DLo could say, “Hey! I’ll be better than Conley next year! Pay me more!” He’s probably right, but is DLo better than Conley PLUS an MLE player? I’m not so sure.

The other thing complicating a UTA deal is that the Jazz would need to include another player to salary match. Most of the Jazz players that could be used have player options, except for the guys we traded them, who are ineligible to be traded. We don’t want a guy like Rudy Gay opting into his $6.5 player option, cutting into our MLE. A couple possibility it’s

DLo and Forbes for Conley and Nickeil Alexander Walker. NAW is a $5 mil expiring. The deal adds $5.5 to the Jazz payroll, so we’d have to pay for that

DLo and Forbes for Conley and Jordan Clarkson. Clarkson has a $14 mil player option that he may decline. That’s not too bad either way - keeping him is probably as good as we could do with our MLE anyway. With this deal though, Ainge would probably ask us for more assets. Would you send them Naz, knowing Clarkson could be a rental?

It seems like your basic assumption is that DLO won't accept a Wiggins level deal. I'm much more in the camp that he would, especially after he tests the free agent market. I'd rather bet on DLO accepting that level of deal over trading for someone like Conley.

[minimus]

I’d really like to keep the full mid-level. We need another guard that we can count on for 24 mins a game. To replace Nowell, cover for injuries, and ideally move Rivers farther down the depth chart. I’m not sure how much people will get on the market, but there will be a lot of guys available who could fill that role: Hart, Richardson, Brown, DiVincenzo, etc.

I think DDV will decline his PO and sign multi-year contract this summer. He has been playing well recently.

[Danimals]

I wish we knew what we’ve offered him at this point.

[shrink]

I wish we knew what we’ve offered him at this point.

Me too. All we know is that it was so much lower than DLo wanted, that he acted out.

[wolves_89]

I wish we knew what we’ve offered him at this point.

Me too. All we know is that it was so much lower than DLo wanted, that he acted out.

Or it was only a one-year offer and DLO wants a longer deal.

[Danimals]

Unfortunately all the beat writers are too invested in maintaining friendly relationships than doing any real reporting. And the national guys still think we are failing with Gobert and Towns starting lol.

[TimberKat]

How does Rozier compare to Dlo? Would a trade such as Rozier and Oubre for Dlo and Nowell make sense for both teams? Roziers contract matches up with the above numbers as well...

It works financially next year ($21.5, Oubre expiring), but Rozier is paid $25 and $26.6 the following two years, when we are in lux hell.

It’s possible, but it’s a short term solution and we would need to be shopping Rozier from the start of next season. Rozier’s deal is questionable as it is, but certainly not someone you want to pay lux taxes on.

I don't think CHA wants to move Rozier. They are in position for the Wembanyama sweepstakes and want to dump salary but just not Rozier's 23M. Maybe Hayward + Oubre for DLo + Nowell + Forbes. CHA dumps Hayward's 31M for next year, release DLo later this year so he could join other teams, CHA gets closer to win the #1 pick.

[shrink]

How does Rozier compare to Dlo? Would a trade such as Rozier and Oubre for Dlo and Nowell make sense for both teams? Roziers contract matches up with the above numbers as well...

It works financially next year ($21.5, Oubre expiring), but Rozier is paid $25 and $26.6 the following two years, when we are in lux hell.

It’s possible, but it’s a short term solution and we would need to be shopping Rozier from the start of next season. Rozier’s deal is questionable as it is, but certainly not someone you want to pay lux taxes on.

I don't think CHA wants to move Rozier. They are in position for the Wembanyama sweepstakes and want to dump salary but just not Rozier's 23M. Maybe Hayward + Oubre for DLo + Nowell + Forbes. CHA dumps Hayward's 31M for next year, release DLo later this year so he could join other teams, CHA gets closer to win the #1 pick.

Even if DLo couldn’t play, if we sent them expirings for Hayward, they better send us something good for incentive!

[wolves_89]

It works financially next year ($21.5, Oubre expiring), but Rozier is paid $25 and $26.6 the following two years, when we are in lux hell.

It’s possible, but it’s a short term solution and we would need to be shopping Rozier from the start of next season. Rozier’s deal is questionable as it is, but certainly not someone you want to pay lux taxes on.

I don't think CHA wants to move Rozier. They are in position for the Wembanyama sweepstakes and want to dump salary but just not Rozier's 23M. Maybe Hayward + Oubre for DLo + Nowell + Forbes. CHA dumps Hayward's 31M for next year, release DLo later this year so he could join other teams, CHA gets closer to win the #1 pick.

Even if DLo couldn’t play, if we sent them expirings for Hayward, they better send us something good for incentive!

Hayward has been pretty bad this year and I don't have a lot of confidence in him going forward. The Hornets would have to attach quite a bit of value for the Wolves to take on the $31.5M he's owed next season.

[Klomp]

Idea: Could a declining contract make sense here?

[wolves_89]

Idea: Could a declining contract make sense here?

Personally, I'd be all for a Wiggins level contract that declines. Basically a 3-4 year contract starting at $30M and decreasing (ending at $24M for a 4 year deal) makes a lot of sense to me.

[shrink]

Idea: Could a declining contract make sense here?

Personally, I'd be all for a Wiggins level contract that declines. Basically a 3-4 year contract starting at $30M and decreasing (ending at $24M for a 4 year deal) makes a lot of sense to me.

Declining contracts are generally appreciated because players wisely want their money up front. We could start a deal at $33 and stay under the lux, if we didn’t want to use the MLE. The problem though is that for teams over the cap, a contract can only decline by 8%, so the second year would be over $30, and crippling with lux taxes.

(And if anyone is confused about Myles Turner’s new contract, the Pacers were far enough under the cap to renegotiate his current deal. They wisely gave Turner all extra cap space up to the salary floor (which they’d have paid anyway), and that got him to start his extension on a lower figure. It was what Jimmy wanted us to do - get under the cap so we could negotiate his current contract).

[shrink]

The best format for a deal for MIN would be a two year deal, where the second year is unguaranteed. DLo probably wants longterm money, but sometimes players take deals like this if it’s an overpay for Season 1. I doubt he’d take a deal like that starting at $24.

Finally, I don’t think it’s guaranteed we want to keep DLo. We’re fans, so we focus on the first half of last game (8-for-8) and ignore the second half (0-for-6). He’s been a good shooter since December, but October and November happened too, and we can look at previous years as well. Few players are a better example of the wildly inconsistent gap between Good DLo and Bad DLo, so we need to look at him for his body of work to project his future production, not just his highlight games and months. Plenty of players work harder in a contract year.

[wolves_89]

Finally, I don’t think it’s guaranteed we want to keep DLo. We’re fans, so we focus on the first half of last game (8-for-8) and ignore the second half (0-for-6). He’s been a good shooter since December, but October and November happened too, and we can look at previous years as well. Few players are a better example of the wildly inconsistent gap between Good DLo and Bad DLo, so we need to look at him for his body of work to project his future production, not just his highlight games and months.

I think you are understating how good DLO has been over his time with the Wolves. Even though his shooting was down in 2021-22 his advanced metrics rated out as a pretty solid player.

DLO 2021-22
RPM 4.74
RAPTOR 1.6
BPM 0.8

This season overall he's been good as well.

DLO 2022-23
EPM 1.3
RPM 2.76
RAPTOR 0.0
BPM 1.1

Just as a comparison point, here is how DLO compares to Jamal Murray this season. Hint, Murray has been slightly better, but the gap is pretty small.

EPM: DLO 1.3, Murray 1.5
RPM: DLO 2.76, Murray 2.90
RAPTOR: DLO 0.0, Murray 1.0
BPM: DLO 1.1, Murray 0.7

[Danimals]

Now do Dlo’s defensive stats.

[wolves_89]

Now do Dlo’s defensive stats.

DLO 2022-23 advanced defensive metrics:
DEPM: -0.7
DRPM: 1.60
DRAPTOR: -1.8
DBPM: -0.8

Overall, he rates out a bit below average as a defender, but he's not the terrible defender that he sometimes gets made out to be. With that said, I think we all know DLO isn't on the court for his defense.

[Danimals]

Now do Dlo’s defensive stats.

DLO 2022-23 advanced defensive metrics:
DEPM: -0.7
DRPM: 1.60
DRAPTOR: -1.8
DBPM: -0.8

Overall, he rates out a bit below average as a defender. With that said, I think we all know DLO isn't on the court for his defense.

Exactly, he’s been a net negative in impact over the course of his career. He can can win some games when he’s on a hot streak, but this team can’t afford to pay a player of that impact more than $15-20 million a season. That is why we should trade him now. Not because he’s a bad player, but because he’s a bad fit on this team for his projected cost. We can better utilize those financial assets going forward.