Identity crisis?

[Klomp]

1. When I think of identity, I think of what someone is known for. You hear a name John Smith, and you know that is probably a person, but it doesn’t tell you much of their story. But I tell you the name Will Smith and now if you have seen his movies or heard his music you have something to associate with him. In the basketball context last season people knew us for our defense. This season our identity is more about hitting 3s and finding ways to score. That does not suggest that we are not more than one thing, of course we are. But to me a teams identity is the first thing that you think about when you think about that team, and for us it is Ant and 3 point shooting. For Denver in the championship year it was Joker and playmaking. There identity was the way they won games and that was with incredible passing in the half court and transition.

That's superficial. If I was born with a high-pitched voice, I could grow out my hair to where I look like a girl, but that doesn't mean I'm a girl.

[winforlose]

1. When I think of identity, I think of what someone is known for. You hear a name John Smith, and you know that is probably a person, but it doesn’t tell you much of their story. But I tell you the name Will Smith and now if you have seen his movies or heard his music you have something to associate with him. In the basketball context last season people knew us for our defense. This season our identity is more about hitting 3s and finding ways to score. That does not suggest that we are not more than one thing, of course we are. But to me a teams identity is the first thing that you think about when you think about that team, and for us it is Ant and 3 point shooting. For Denver in the championship year it was Joker and playmaking. There identity was the way they won games and that was with incredible passing in the half court and transition.

That's superficial. If I was born with a high-pitched voice, I could grow out my hair to where I look like a girl, but that doesn't mean I'm a girl.

No it does not. Likewise we could have a top 10 defense (which Rudy pretty much gets you by himself,) and not be a team whose primary identity is defense. If you want to use the term to talk about the type of defense we play, you can do that. I believe it was Minimus who took that approach talking about high wall and Denver, but to me that is not the same thing as talking about a teams identity. To me an identity is the thing that defines the team, the thing that drives winning. More often than not our defense is not the reason we win a game. We have not been holding a lot of opponents under 100 and we have not dug out a lot of wins scoring under 100. That lack of offense and overpowered defense is a defensive identity team. This season our 3 point shooting is usually what decides games. Limiting turnovers and making 3s. We have more of a balanced identity with a tilt toward offense. There is nothing wrong with that, but it is the reality of the season.

[Klomp]

To me an identity is the thing that defines the team, the thing that drives winning. More often than not our defense is not the reason we win a game. We have not been holding a lot of opponents under 100 and we have not dug out a lot of wins scoring under 100.

We did it 23 times last year (20-3) and had done it 15 times by early February.
We've done it 13 times this year (12-1).

I wouldn't call that an identity-shifting difference.

[winforlose]

To me an identity is the thing that defines the team, the thing that drives winning. More often than not our defense is not the reason we win a game. We have not been holding a lot of opponents under 100 and we have not dug out a lot of wins scoring under 100.

We did it 23 times last year (20-3) and had done it 15 times by early February.
We've done it 13 times this year (12-1).

I wouldn't call that an identity-shifting difference.

The difference is last year we did it to healthy teams as often as not. This year a lot of that was to unhealthy teams (Dallas without Luka and more,) LAC without Powell and once without Leonard. The shift is in the way teams play against us. We give up a lot more paint points, we give up quite a bit more open 3s, guys find rhythms against us. The Rockets are a poor shooting team the relies on defense to win games. We are a high volume high percentage 3 point shooting team that when the offense has a bad quarter the defense collapses. I have watched every game this season and I can tell you the ways we win and things we need to happen to win are not defensive.

An easy example, we are playing Washington without our 4 best offensive players. Our defense gives up 105 to the Wizards on how many open shots. We had MCD, Rudy, Clark, and NAW and still couldn’t get stops.

[Klomp]

An easy example, we are playing Washington without our 4 best offensive players. Our defense gives up 105 to the Wizards on how many open shots. We had MCD, Rudy, Clark, and NAW and still couldn’t get stops.

A team shooting 33% on 3s for the season (29th in the league) shot 15-33. That's a one-off, I don't think it's a sign of some deep cultural shift for the defense.

[winforlose]

An easy example, we are playing Washington without our 4 best offensive players. Our defense gives up 105 to the Wizards on how many open shots. We had MCD, Rudy, Clark, and NAW and still couldn’t get stops.

A team shooting 33% on 3s for the season (29th in the league) shot 15-33. That's a one-off, I don't think it's a sign of some deep cultural shift for the defense.

How many were wide open. How many times haves teams that don’t shoot a lot of volume or hit a high percentage gone off on us because we cannot defend them. We also give up a lot more paint points. We still don’t defend the mid range well. We just lack the same consistency defensively that we showed last year. That lack of consistency helps opponents (especially bad ones,) build confidence and stay in games they should be blown out of. For example the Bulls game. We get up 27 to 6 and then they go on 50 to 24 run. That isn’t defensively sound basketball.

[Klomp]

An easy example, we are playing Washington without our 4 best offensive players. Our defense gives up 105 to the Wizards on how many open shots. We had MCD, Rudy, Clark, and NAW and still couldn’t get stops.

A team shooting 33% on 3s for the season (29th in the league) shot 15-33. That's a one-off, I don't think it's a sign of some deep cultural shift for the defense.

How many were wide open. How many times haves teams that don’t shoot a lot of volume or hit a high percentage gone off on us because we cannot defend them. We also give up a lot more paint points. We still don’t defend the mid range well. We just lack the same consistency defensively that we showed last year. That lack of consistency helps opponents (especially bad ones,) build confidence and stay in games they should be blown out of. For example the Bulls game. We get up 27 to 6 and then they go on 50 to 24 run. That isn’t defensively sound basketball.

I know this might be hard to believe, but teams scheme to try to get specific players to get specific shots, and you live with the results. Kyle Kuzma is a 28 percent 3-point shooter. You want him taking 3s over someone else. Coulibaly is also a 28% 3-point shooter. If you close out harder, they drive right past you and then the entire defense is forced to rotate out of position because you were worried that a 28% shooter might make a shot.

[winforlose]

A team shooting 33% on 3s for the season (29th in the league) shot 15-33. That's a one-off, I don't think it's a sign of some deep cultural shift for the defense.

How many were wide open. How many times haves teams that don’t shoot a lot of volume or hit a high percentage gone off on us because we cannot defend them. We also give up a lot more paint points. We still don’t defend the mid range well. We just lack the same consistency defensively that we showed last year. That lack of consistency helps opponents (especially bad ones,) build confidence and stay in games they should be blown out of. For example the Bulls game. We get up 27 to 6 and then they go on 50 to 24 run. That isn’t defensively sound basketball.

I know this might be hard to believe, but teams scheme to try to get specific players to get specific shots, and you live with the results. Kyle Kuzma is a 28 percent 3-point shooter. You want him taking 3s over someone else. Coulibaly is also a 28% 3-point shooter. If you close out harder, they drive right past you and then the entire defense is forced to rotate out of position because you were worried that a 28% shooter might make a shot.

Totally fair and very true. Jaden McDaniels is that guy for a lot of teams. They will let him shoot wide open corner 3s. We saw that a lot with Kyle last year. But sticking to Jaden he is one of those guys like Kuzma who can also score inside. When you let those guys get going and build confidence, then the rim starts to look more like a hula hoop. Not start down the rabbit hole, but like we saw with Clark last night the hot hand is real. Clark was shooting 30% from deep on 3/10 and 9 of 23 on the season for 39% from the field. Yet he hit 4/6 from deep and 5 of 9 from the floor. When Murray (who has been off this year,) started hitting them we needed to guard him. When Kuzma and Poole were nailing them, the game plan shifts. Finch understands this, but again we couldn’t defend at a level to get them out of rhythm. Just like with DDR and Monk.

[Klomp]

Totally fair and very true. Jaden McDaniels is that guy for a lot of teams. They will let him shoot wide open corner 3s. We saw that a lot with Kyle last year. But sticking to Jaden he is one of those guys like Kuzma who can also score inside. When you let those guys get going and build confidence, then the rim starts to look more like a hula hoop. Not start down the rabbit hole, but like we saw with Clark last night the hot hand is real. Clark was shooting 30% from deep on 3/10 and 9 of 23 on the season for 39% from the field. Yet he hit 4/6 from deep and 5 of 9 from the floor. When Murray (who has been off this year,) started hitting them we needed to guard him. When Kuzma and Poole were nailing them, the game plan shifts. Finch understands this, but again we couldn’t defend at a level to get them out of rhythm. Just like with DDR and Monk.

So Clark is hot now....do you switch your coverage and start calling for them to send the double off of Ant? Or do you keep trusting the numbers?

[winforlose]

Totally fair and very true. Jaden McDaniels is that guy for a lot of teams. They will let him shoot wide open corner 3s. We saw that a lot with Kyle last year. But sticking to Jaden he is one of those guys like Kuzma who can also score inside. When you let those guys get going and build confidence, then the rim starts to look more like a hula hoop. Not start down the rabbit hole, but like we saw with Clark last night the hot hand is real. Clark was shooting 30% from deep on 3/10 and 9 of 23 on the season for 39% from the field. Yet he hit 4/6 from deep and 5 of 9 from the floor. When Murray (who has been off this year,) started hitting them we needed to guard him. When Kuzma and Poole were nailing them, the game plan shifts. Finch understands this, but again we couldn’t defend at a level to get them out of rhythm. Just like with DDR and Monk.

So Clark is hot now....do you switch your coverage and start calling for them to send the double off of Ant? Or do you keep trusting the numbers?

The answer is both. You go into the game trusting the numbers, and you have contingencies to contain the hot hand. We should be doing the same thing by the way. When a player goes off an we struggle to contain we blitz them and try to get them off the ball. Or we play zone to try and make them less comfortable. This isn’t revolutionary and shouldn’t even be controversial. When a player is scoring on you repeatedly you adjust the defense to force someone else to try and do it. The larger issues is this season we allow more open looks to get guys in rhythm. We allow more paint points, more points in transition, at times we give up more offensive rebounds, and we are just less effective at turning teams over. Again to say we are not a defensive identity team doesn’t mean we don’t play defense, it means we don’t win primarily with defense. On a night where our 3 point shot is off we are likely to lose. Last year we shot much lower volume and won 56 games. We didn’t depend on the 3 or really the offense to the same level we do this year. This shifts the identity. It doesn’t have to be a bad thing, but it is a true thing.

[Guest84]

https://youtu.be/HvyxzjqydhY?si=Czqj2N27QaWKAqvn

All NBA podcast guest Jon K

[minimus]

Watching Naz hitting all those step back threes, I wonder if McDaniels can get play as PF, when someone else is playing as wing. Last game against POR it was Reid. I guess it is harder to play as PF next to Randle, because Julius is not three point shooter.

[TimberKat]

Watching Naz hitting all those step back threes, I wonder if McDaniels can get play as PF, when someone else is playing as wing. Last game against POR it was Reid. I guess it is harder to play as PF next to Randle, because Julius is not three point shooter.

I look at it as more as can JMcD get the ball more often to start the offense and not just park in the corner. I think we could and should do it more often. Either with the 2nd team or move Randle to the bench. Also, have less of Ant holding the ball for 20 seconds.

[minimus]

Today against OKC:

Naz: 7 assists, 0 turnovers
McDaniels: 5 assists, 0 turnovers
Edwards: 7 assists, 2 turnovers
Dilly: 5 assists, 0 turnovers

MIN can play without a true PG (although it makes things much easier), when they play 0.5 sec, free flow offense. I think that TC really needs to re-evaluate his vision and strategy moving forward.

It also depends on proportion half-court/transition offense, it looks much easier to get buckets when our young players run in transition, and it is another level of execution when MIN must run half court offense. Ideally MIN need both: competent half court and transition offense.

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P.S. IMO a quality bigman would do wonders to second unit offense. I dont think he MUST be a stretching bigman, but I do believe he should be a passing big.

[minimus]

Another interesting thing is that MIN did not lose rebounding battle against Hartenstein and Holmgren. Sure both OKC bigs got a few easy offensive rebounds and easy shots, but the level of physicality that showed MIN players was high enough to overcome size disadvantage. I was really surprised how dedicated were TJ, Clark, NAW in terms of rebounding. Heck, even Dilly won a couple of 50/50 rebounds.

[minimus]

I still think that MIN offense will continue to transform around Edwards. I can see how FO and Finch can do it by simplifying things:

First step was "quietly" done by increasing 3PA (5th in league, 23rd last season) while still being 4th in 3pt accuracy (3rd last season).

Second step is to improve our transition game where MIN rank dead last in PTS in transition, possessions and frequency. I had high hopes on Randle that he will make us faster and more efficient in transition because of his rebounding and passing skills but it did not happened yet.

I have recently read an excellent article from Maxwell Baumbach, he says following

Modern big men prospects carry higher usage rates, assist percentages, and assist-to-turnover ratios than those in the past

He also found one interesting stat analysis saying that

The best time to shoot a three is after an offensive rebound.

So third step is combining two most efficient scoring tools: offensive rebounds, kickout passes and three point shots after rebounds. In nowadays NBA a mobile and physical bigman who can pass is such a weapon, also because many team are playing with oversized wings at PF/C.

So building around Edwards might mean: shooting more threes AND fighting for offensive rebounds, run more in transition, involve bigs more in offensive flow. I think it is kind of overrated having a stretch five player who can hit 1-2 threes with league average accuracy, and I think it is underrated having a bigman who can help you to win a rebounding battle AND pass the ball.

[minimus]

Watch on YouTube

I wonder if this is the way to build an elite defense around smallball unit with shooters. To prove this concept MIN need to draft (or sign FA) mobile, athletic bigman who can play in similar way as Draymond Green in GSW. Maybe Thomas Sorber, maybe Rasheer Fleming. Even Collin Murray-Boyles at some degree can play like undersized C.

[winforlose]

Watch on YouTube

I wonder if this is the way to build an elite defense around smallball unit with shooters. To prove this concept MIN need to draft (or sign FA) mobile, athletic bigman who can play in similar way as Draymond Green in GSW. Maybe Thomas Sorber, maybe Rasheer Fleming. Even Collin Murray-Boyles at some degree can play like undersized C.

It has happened before. GSW won multiple championships with that model. The difference is the safety net is gone. Without bigs rebounding the team has to rebound and really box out. Without paint protection the team has to be very crisp in their rotations and very active in the passing lanes. You need shooters who are elite (KD, Steph, Klay,) and you need a scheme to allow you to play with pace, and space, and off ball movement. The question is not can it be done, the question is why is it so rarely done well?

[minimus]

You need shooters who are elite (KD, Steph, Klay,) and you need a scheme to allow you to play with pace, and space, and off ball movement.

I believe that MIN have enough high level shooters in Reid, Edwards, DDV and hopefully Dillingham. And as team MIN are already in top5 in both 3PT made and 3PT%. My hope is that our FO can find a bigman who can be a defensive minded padawan for jedi Rudy Gobert, just like young Draymond Green was for Andrew Bogut. I think that it starts in practices, where level of physicality and defensive attention should be on maximum.

[winforlose]

You need shooters who are elite (KD, Steph, Klay,) and you need a scheme to allow you to play with pace, and space, and off ball movement.

I believe that MIN have enough high level shooters in Reid, Edwards, DDV and hopefully Dillingham. And as team MIN are already in top5 in both 3PT made and 3PT%. My hope is that our FO can find a bigman who can be a defensive minded Padawan for jedi Rudy Gobert, just like Andrew Bogut was for young Draymond Green. I think that it starts in practices, where level of physicality and defensive attention should be on top.

We don’t have the coach. We don’t have offensive scheme. We don’t have the defensive scheme. We don’t gang rebound. We don’t play with the pace of a small ball team. Could we get there, maybe. But, there is a reason teams keeping going bigger rather than smaller. Cleveland and OKC are the two best teams in the league and they both run double big. Boston plays KP and Horford together.
Even if we could somehow make it work, we would need to sustain it through a full season. Most teams cannot and have not.