2023 Free Agency

[younggunsmn]

1. Are you sure we have to commit to Moore’s 24/25 contract on Nov 1st 2023? Even if that is the case, make the decision by then, release him or trade him.
2. How much did Westbrook and Eric Gordon get for their contracts? How much do you want to pay Conley at age 37? 5M seem right to me.
3. Yes, trade the first round pick and/or just drop one of NAW/Milton/Brown works
4. Just go over 2nd apron for a year
5. Are you sure the 14 players must have vet/rookie minimum contracts? Can they just be two-way or 10 day or other exceptions in the fine print?
6. Towns/Gobert's value next year is not going to drop to a fraction next summer.
7. If you want more value on Towns/Gobert trade, find ways to work them in 24/25 so other teams knows that you are not desperate in trading one of them.

I have to admire your optimism.
1. Yes, 3rd year option must be picked up by then. And even then, you only save 300k by replacing him.
2. Westbrook and Gordon are completely WASHED. You want to run back a washed starting pg?
I want Conley to still be a starting caliber player, and that to me is worth at least 10 million.
5. Yes. Only regular contracts count. 10 day contracts get same prorated minimum.
All but 2-ways get the minimum or more, but 2-ways can't count against the 14 contract minimum.
And I'm not even including the prorated money 2-ways get when they are active. That's another mil or more (we spent 950 k last year).
6. It might be 9/10, it might be 1/2. Barring an all-star caliber year, it may lower a year from now, for both. In particular, playing them together is going to make it hard to repeat the stats they put up when they were each the sole big.
Jaden's trade value will also drop once he inks the big extension, unless we get a Bridges like bargain.
7. GM's are not dumb. They can smell blood in the water. They're all looking for those "market inefficiencies" just like Connelly.
A team with financial problems is a huge "market inefficiency" waiting to be exploited.

We can hope more teams will have cap room next summer. That will help.
It may be easier to get salary cap relief next summer in a big trade. that is one argument for waiting I guess.

[minimus]

We are bare minimum at 197 million, 16 mil into the tax and 4 mil below the 2nd threshold.
That's just paying our guaranteed salary and filling out the roster with minimums.
That's before Conley, Anderson, our 1st round pick, or picking up the options on Milton and Brown Jr.

Oh Math, Thou Art a Heartless Bitch!

P.S. Fans just dont realize this. Especially in context of war and possible financial crisis.

Wise old prophet, you worry too much again, for cap room will rain down from the sky. Please see my previous post.

I like your optimism. But. It is about reactive and proactive approaches. The definition of reactive and proactive is as follows: Reactive : Reacting to the past rather than anticipating the future. Proactive: Acting before a situation becomes a source of confrontation or crisis.

I hope our FO will act proactively. Or in basketball terms read-and-react. But at least I hope Gupta has already read new CBA.

P.S. From what I see we regular fans have little to no CBA knowledge, that is similar to fans critisizing Finch for not running enough plays and at the same time they dont recognize basic sets that MIN run. And thats okay, regular fans should not know these things. Reading CBA or all variations of Spanish pick-n-roll is not a pleasure.

[Biff Cooper]

That's why I think we will have to show some major winning for KAT/Gobert to both be back.
Gobert is already not tradable for positive value given his contract.
So it will have to be KAT or Jaden moved if the edict comes down to cut costs.

There is risk in waiting. Easier to trade and salary match 36 mil vs 52 million.
Or 3.9 for Jaden vs a big extension with a poison pill due to the big salary jump.
That's why teams were calling us on him during the draft.
But there is also risk in pulling the plug too early.

Yeah - they are going to have to do some major winning. I expect them to. On paper, they have as much of a talent and depth combination as anyone else in the West. They are running back the same primary core for the first time in a long time. The way last season ended did not sit well with anyone. I expect a hungrier and more mature team this year that will not be taking games off like they did last season. KAT and Ant both have long term financial security, so I think we are going to see those two work within the team offense a little better this season - even if it means sacrificing individual stats for team success. When we were healthy and motivated, we matched up well with everyone in the NBA.

On the plus side, the new TV contract comes out with an expected significant salary cap jump in 25-26. Even if we exceed the second threshold next season, it won't necessarily be the case for the year after. I don't see management or ownership risking pulling the plug early on their Gobert gamble.

[TimberKat]

Please no Bol Bol. The dude is a horrific net-negative when he is on-the-court.

I am not exaggerating when I call him a bottom five player in the NBA.

I haven't watched him in the NBA to be honest, there was a run where he was putting up good DFS numbers... is he really that bad? Not that I want him at all.

I watched him play a few times and looks like there is some potential there. Like a poor man's Holmgrem (if there is such a thing yet). I am surprised Magic released him. Maybe takes another year or two to develop him? He can be one of those Market Inefficiencies find.

[life_saver]

lol Thybulle getting 3 years, $33M deal...I feel like we got NAW for a great value considering these numbers

[twolves31]

Everyone worrying about the cap space is worrying about someone else's money. Could Arod and Lore decide not to pay the luxury tax and break it up? Sure they could there is no guarantee they are willing to pay it. I think some posters are forgetting that in the 2025-2026 season the NBA's TV deal will be renewed. NBA wants to renegotiate from 24 billion up to 75 billion on the new deal. In 2014 the last time the NBA negotiated a huge increase in it's tv deal the salary cap jumped 34% from 70 million to 94 million, which led to GS signing Durant and gave huge contracts to a bunch of scrubs. It's very possible that we are in the 2nd tax apron during the 24-25 season, and not even in the luxury tax the following season if the salary cap jumps anywhere near 34%. Could Towns or Gobert be moved, sure, could they stay, sure.

[BlacJacMac]

I don't think we'll see another massive jump like that. They know the mistake they made, so thee will assuredly be significant "smoothing" to get to the new number.

[Domejandro]

Please no Bol Bol. The dude is a horrific net-negative when he is on-the-court.

I am not exaggerating when I call him a bottom five player in the NBA.

I haven't watched him in the NBA to be honest, there was a run where he was putting up good DFS numbers... is he really that bad? Not that I want him at all.

I watched him play a few times and looks like there is some potential there. Like a poor man's Holmgrem (if there is such a thing yet). I am surprised Magic released him. Maybe takes another year or two to develop him? He can be one of those Market Inefficiencies find.

Bol Bol is arguably the worst defensive player in the NBA, whereas Chet Holmgren is a talented one. Bol Bol is also a HUGE net-negative on offense, due to being a black hole. To me, it feels like trying to get something out of Anthony Randolph, except without the hops.

Maybe some team gets something out of him, but as it stands, he’s easily a bottom five impact player in the NBA.

[karch34]

I don't think we'll see another massive jump like that. They know the mistake they made, so thee will assuredly be significant "smoothing" to get to the new number.

It's rumored to go up significantly but I would think it's likely just going to be enough to get some 2nd apron teams breathing room and not to the level what we saw previously.

I agree with Twolves31 though that it's likely going to be a see how this works with health and a full TC together. If it shows enough than I think we say 2nd apron be damned and if not then Connelly gets creative. I think it would really have to be going bad by trade deadline for any significant retooling.

[wolves_89]

One avenue for the Wolves that doesn't get much attention is the path of knowingly going past the second apron for a couple years starting in 2024-25. The second apron is designed to be painful in terms of monetary penalties and by crippling a team's ability to add talent. If the new owners were willing to spend money, the Wolves could position themselves to ride out Gobert's contract by largely keeping the same group together through 2025-26. Looking at the current roster, I think the Wolves are in good shape to do this at every position but PG. If Connelly could acquire a long-term PG before the trade deadline, I could see going into 2024-25 with pretty much the same team as 2023-24.

[TimberKat]

I don't think we'll see another massive jump like that. They know the mistake they made, so thee will assuredly be significant "smoothing" to get to the new number.

It's rumored to go up significantly but I would think it's likely just going to be enough to get some 2nd apron teams breathing room and not to the level what we saw previously.

I agree with Twolves31 though that it's likely going to be a see how this works with health and a full TC together. If it shows enough than I think we say 2nd apron be damned and if not then Connelly gets creative. I think it would really have to be going bad by trade deadline for any significant retooling.

Yes, this time there is a "cap smoothing" in place for max 10% cap raise per year. But the principal still the same, we can take a 1 year 2nd apron hit and will come down the year after because of cap increases.

[Klomp]

One avenue for the Wolves that doesn't get much attention is the path of knowingly going past the second apron for a couple years starting in 2024-25. The second apron is designed to be painful in terms of monetary penalties and by crippling a team's ability to add talent. If the new owners were willing to spend money, the Wolves could position themselves to ride out Gobert's contract by largely keeping the same group together through 2025-26. Looking at the current roster, I think the Wolves are in good shape to do this at every position but PG. If Connelly could acquire a long-term PG before the trade deadline, I could see going into 2024-25 with pretty much the same team as 2023-24.

This is exactly the mindset I've had.

The crippling comes in situations like Phoenix (which is why they're doing what they're doing now). Four players making combined $180 million next year and the rest of the roster is essentially signed with veteran minimums and tiny exceptions. They have a lot of player options on deals, which could hurt them if everyone opts out. We don't have any player options until Reid and Gobert in two summers.

Next year, we'll only be around $150 million to our top four guys. That allows us to give a little more to guys like Reid while the Suns highest 2024-25 salary currently outside the top 4 is Gordon at $3,356,271.

[TimberKat]

1. Are you sure we have to commit to Moore’s 24/25 contract on Nov 1st 2023? Even if that is the case, make the decision by then, release him or trade him.
2. How much did Westbrook and Eric Gordon get for their contracts? How much do you want to pay Conley at age 37? 5M seem right to me.
3. Yes, trade the first round pick and/or just drop one of NAW/Milton/Brown works
4. Just go over 2nd apron for a year
5. Are you sure the 14 players must have vet/rookie minimum contracts? Can they just be two-way or 10 day or other exceptions in the fine print?
6. Towns/Gobert's value next year is not going to drop to a fraction next summer.
7. If you want more value on Towns/Gobert trade, find ways to work them in 24/25 so other teams knows that you are not desperate in trading one of them.

I have to admire your optimism.
1. Yes, 3rd year option must be picked up by then. And even then, you only save 300k by replacing him.
2. Westbrook and Gordon are completely WASHED. You want to run back a washed starting pg?
I want Conley to still be a starting caliber player, and that to me is worth at least 10 million.
5. Yes. Only regular contracts count. 10 day contracts get same prorated minimum.
All but 2-ways get the minimum or more, but 2-ways can't count against the 14 contract minimum.
And I'm not even including the prorated money 2-ways get when they are active. That's another mil or more (we spent 950 k last year).
6. It might be 9/10, it might be 1/2. Barring an all-star caliber year, it may lower a year from now, for both. In particular, playing them together is going to make it hard to repeat the stats they put up when they were each the sole big.
Jaden's trade value will also drop once he inks the big extension, unless we get a Bridges like bargain.
7. GM's are not dumb. They can smell blood in the water. They're all looking for those "market inefficiencies" just like Connelly.
A team with financial problems is a huge "market inefficiency" waiting to be exploited.

We can hope more teams will have cap room next summer. That will help.
It may be easier to get salary cap relief next summer in a big trade. that is one argument for waiting I guess.

I like how you pull all those numbers together so we could have a more tangible conversation. Here is what I put together according to your numbers, 14 players, keep Moore, paid Conley 8.3M (close enough to 10M), and stay below 2nd apron. Let me know if the number checks out.
Starters: Gobert/Towns/JMac/Ant/Conley
Backup: Naz/Vet min/Brown/NWA/Moore
Develop: Minott/Miller/Clark (or 2nd #2)/2nd

Overall we lost KA, JMcL, Milton, trade out 2024 1st, JMcD at 25M instead of 27M. It is still a good line up. The new CBA is difficult but not impossible and no blood in the water. I don't mind trading Towns, Gobert, Naz, or anybody really, as long as it improves the team. Just no forced trades due to cap reasons. We still can go over 2nd apron to make things work even better.

[younggunsmn]

Cap raises are capped at 10% per year. Our big contracts all go up at 8% per year.
More TV money isn't the panacea you think it is.

Running it back means 2nd tax apron for '24 and '25. Its nearly unavoidable.
Then in '26 we have to dip back below the tax line to get out of the repeater penalty when Gobert comes off the books.
And Naz can hit free agency again in '25, which I really wish would have lined up with Gobert coming off the books

I mean if we win, doing that is not out of the question.
I think the PG position will be the biggest hurdle/hardest to fill on a budget.
We could have a couple draft picks turn into rotation players, a deep playoff run might draw a couple of better than average guys for the vet minimum the following year.
But it's all about winning. if you're not winning you're also not putting butts in the seats, you're not upping the franchise value.

[younggunsmn]

I like your optimism. But. It is about reactive and proactive approaches. The definition of reactive and proactive is as follows: Reactive : Reacting to the past rather than anticipating the future. Proactive: Acting before a situation becomes a source of confrontation or crisis.

This is a very apt way of putting our cap situation.
You can already see it a bit in the way we handled our offseason, with smaller signings for a shorter term rather than a big MLE splash.

I hope at a bare minimum Connelly has run the potential numbers by all 3 owners and has clear expectations of what resources he will have, and the kind of expectations the owners will have for spending that kind of money.

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

Put the KAT trade on hold for six months....revisit the idea with Murray and pieces coming back.

[fattymcgee]

Dejuante didn't even get $30m per year, I still see
Jaden as $20-$25m.

[TimberKat]

Oh Math, Thou Art a Heartless Bitch!

P.S. Fans just dont realize this. Especially in context of war and possible financial crisis.

Wise old prophet, you worry too much again, for cap room will rain down from the sky. Please see my previous post.

I like your optimism. But. It is about reactive and proactive approaches. The definition of reactive and proactive is as follows: Reactive : Reacting to the past rather than anticipating the future. Proactive: Acting before a situation becomes a source of confrontation or crisis.

I hope our FO will act proactively. Or in basketball terms read-and-react. But at least I hope Gupta has already read new CBA.

P.S. From what I see we regular fans have little to no CBA knowledge, that is similar to fans critisizing Finch for not running enough plays and at the same time they dont recognize basic sets that MIN run. And thats okay, regular fans should not know these things. Reading CBA or all variations of Spanish pick-n-roll is not a pleasure.

But are you sure worry about 2024 cap now which may lose sight to winning this year is not "over-reacting"? From FranklinCovey's point of view: Proactive is act with intention, thought, and clarity; not "reacting" to something according to your emotion or out of panic (like Cavs traded Ron Harper for Danny Ferry which facilitated MJ's dominance).

[TimberKat]

If you are going to criticize Connelly, I think it would be make the Murray trade instead of the Gobert trade. I supposed non of us foresee how bad DLo and Gobert worked together when all the attention was on Towns/Gobert. If everything was according to plan, we have the pg of the future lockup However, not trading for Murray doesn't mean Towns/Gobert won't work.

[m2002brian]

If you are going to criticize Connelly, I think it would be make the Murray trade instead of the Gobert trade. I supposed non of us foresee how bad DLo and Gobert worked together when all the attention was on Towns/Gobert. If everything was according to plan, we have the pg of the future lockup However, not trading for Murray doesn't mean Towns/Gobert won't work.

You make a good point without making the point…

Maybe having Mike to start the season with KAT and Rudy may be a major (and overlooked) factor in starting out as strong as we’d hoped last season. That in turn should build a lot of confidence, which they lacked; maybe because they expected to be as good as the fans did?